Week two of a three-week work period ahead of the Easter recess

The Golden Apple: March 31, 2025

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  This is week two of a three-week work period ahead of the Easter recess, and both Chambers are feeling urgency to act on a unified budget resolution.  In addition, the Trump administration plans to unveil a new, expansive set of tariffs on Wednesday that may trigger reciprocal action from other countries and will surely drive conversations around the country.

Financial Services and Banking Updates

House Financial Services To Mark Up Stablecoin: On Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee will mark up its version of stablecoin legislation, the STABLE Act.  The updated version of the bill hews more closely to the Senate’s previously-marked up legislation.  The House legislation, sponsored by Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil (R-WI) and Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR), departs from the Senate’s GENIUS Act stablecoin legislation in a few ways: while the GENIUS Act allows for a mix of state and federal oversight of stablecoin issuers, the STABLE Act establishes uniform federal oversight.  The definitions of payment stablecoins differ between the two bills as well, with the GENIUS Act excluding stablecoins backed by other digital assets while the STABLE Act allows for more integration of stablecoins into financial markets.  Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-CA) will oppose the legislation after conversations around blocking President Trump and Elon Musk from issuing stablecoins fell through. 

House Subcommittee Examines Money Laundering: On Tuesday, the Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security and Illicit Finance will hold a hearing examining the “growing threat of investment fraud in the U.S.” with witnesses testifying on BSA/AML programs and fraud prevention programs at banks and other institutions.

SEC Abandons Climate Disclosure Rule: Last Thursday, the SEC voted to end its defense of its rules requiring public companies to disclose climate-related risks and greenhouse gas emissions.  This rule, which had been under litigation, was adopted by the Commission last March under the Biden administration.  Following the vote, the SEC sent a letter to the court communicating its withdrawal of the agency’s defense.  The decision was lauded by Congressional republicans, but drew criticism from Democratic Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw.

Court Rules on CFPB Litigation: Last Friday, judge Amy Berman Jackson issued a preliminary injunction formally blocking the Trump administration from its efforts to dismantle the agency while the ongoing lawsuit plays out.  The 112-page opinion noted that without an injunction to preserve the agency’s data, operational capacity, and workforce, there is a “substantial risk that the defendants will complete the destruction of the agency completely in violation of the law well before the Court can rule on the merits.”  The decision reinstates the agency’s contracts, work force, data, and operational capacity, and orders the protection of employees’ ability to perform statutorily required activities. 

Treasury Reverses Course on CDFI Fund: After a March 14th executive order issued by President Trump ordered the CDFI Fund to eliminate all programs that are outside of explicit statutory authority, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle were surprised.  However, on Friday, the Treasury Department reversed course, determining that all 11 program sand functions of the CDFI Fund are statutorily required, and thus it will continue to perform these functions as required by law.  The Treasury’s report noted that it will continue to evaluate the CDFI Fund to “identify opportunities for improvement and enhance efficiencies.”

Congressional Updates

Senate Wants to Move on Budget Resolution This Week, But Hurdles Remain: Senate Majority Leader John Thune told his conference that he would like to move on a compromise resolution as early as this week, but there are a few key decisions that must be sorted out.  Currently, Republicans are waiting on a decision from the Senate Parliamentarian as to whether they can use a “current policy baseline” scoring system that would zero out the official cost of the extension of the 2017 tax cuts.  In addition, Republicans continue to wrestle with the total amount of spending cuts included in the compromise budget resolution.  The House-passed version called for at least $1.5T in cuts, which has prompted concerns among some Senate Republicans and vulnerable House members about cuts to Medicaid.  More updates should come out of the respective conference meetings this week.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

New Hampshire:  Quantus Research released their New Hampshire statewide poll (for Trending Politics news site; 3/17-19; 650 NH registered voters) that shows former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 53-44% in a hypothetical US Senate poll pairing the two potential contenders.  Reports are surfacing that Rep. Pappas will announce for the Senate sometime during the next month.

If Mr. Sununu were to run, the Republicans would have a strong chance of converting the seat from which three-term Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) is retiring.  In the past, Mr. Sununu has rebuffed Republican leadership overtures to run for the Senate but is now sounding a bit more conciliatory about making such a move in 2026.

Texas:  Former Texas Congressman Colin Allred (D) who held Sen. Ted Cruz (R) to a 53-45% victory while raising just under $95 million for his campaign, says he is considering launching another Senate bid, this time against four-term incumbent John Cornyn (R). 

Should Attorney General Ken Paxton and/or Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) challenge Sen. Cornyn in the Republican primary, this race could get interesting.  Mr. Allred would then be in position to take advantage of a possible Republican Party split.  Certainly, Sen. Cornyn losing renomination would then lead to a wide open general election.

HOUSE

AZ-7:  Former Arizona state Rep. Daniel Hernandez (D) announced his special election congressional candidacy this week to succeed the late Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who passed away earlier his month.  Mr. Hernandez served three terms in the state House before losing a Democratic congressional primary in the adjacent 6th District in 2022.  He is credited with saving several lives during the tragic shooting event that nearly cost then-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) her life in 2011. 

Mr. Hernandez’s sisters, Alma Hernandez and Consuelo Hernandez, are both current members of the Arizona House of Representatives from the Tucson area.  The special Democratic primary is scheduled for July 15th with a special general election on September 23rd.  Expected to soon announce her own congressional candidacy is Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), the late Representative’s daughter.

CA-13:  Ex-Rep. John Duarte (R), who lost his seat in 2024 by just 187 votes, which was the closest House race in the country, said he will not return for a re-match against Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced).  Instead, Mr. Duarte endorses Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) who is expected to announce his congressional bid in April.

FL-1 & 6 Special Elections:  Special congressional elections will be held on April 1st to fill the seats that former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz vacated. 

The Republican nominees have been overwhelmed with opposition spending as 6th District Democrat JoshWeil, who bills himself as “one bad ass teacher” has alone raised in the $10 million range for his campaign. 

Running against state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne), whose legislative district is 100 miles south of FL-6, Mr. Weil only trails 48-44% according to a St. Pete Polls survey (3/22; 403 FL-6 likely voters; interactive voice response system).  Despite the heavy Republican voter history advantage – the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-6 as R+ 28 – this race could be headed for an upset result. 

In the 1st CD, Democratic athletic trainer Gay Valimont has also raised a large amount: $6.7 million.  Her opponent, CFO Jimmy Patronis (R), is favored to overcome his $3 million spending deficit in what is rated as the safest Republican congressional seat in Florida.

MI-3:  Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) was reported to be considering entering the open US Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), but she has now decided not to run statewide.  This week Ms. Scholten announced that she will run for a third House term in 2026.

NY-21:  Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) has agreed to withdraw from the confirmation process for her nominated position as US Ambassador to the United Nations.  Instead, she will remain in the House and may be added to the party’s leadership team in some capacity.  This means there will be no special election for her seat later this year. 

With Republicans performing poorly in special elections even in GOP districts and poised for what could be a poor result in a Florida election next week, risking another special election in a more competitive district than those already lost at the state legislative level in Iowa and Pennsylvania is something the White House and GOP leadership wanted to avoid.

GOVERNOR

Alaska:  Former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is considering running for several offices next year, and a new Data for Progress poll (2/28-3/7; 1,008 AK likely voters; online) suggests the ex-Congresswoman would fare well in an open Governor’s race.  The DfP ballot test results find Ms. Peltola leading Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) 44-34%.  Neither woman has announced their 2026 political plans. 

Data for Progress also tested Ms. Peltola against at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) who defeated her last November 51-49% and finds the two locked in another dead heat.  Chances are much stronger, however, that Ms. Peltola will enter the open Governor’s race.  Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Maine:  Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (D) announced her gubernatorial candidacy this week.  Ms. Bellows came to national attention when she denied former President Trump a ballot position for the 2024 Republican primary, a decision that was quickly nullified in court.  She then prohibited Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. from soliciting ballot petition signatures at primary polling places in order to qualify for Maine’s presidential ballot as an Independent. 

Ms. Bellows justified her position by saying he could not visit partisan polling places because he was bypassing a partisan primary.  Mr. Kennedy dropped out of the race before challenging her ruling that would likely have been rejected for violating Mr. Kennedy’s 1st Amendment rights.

Secretary Bellows, who was elected to her position through the legislature and not a vote of the people, is the first major candidate to announce for Governor in what promises to be a competitive election.  US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is attracting the most attention in terms of a potential gubernatorial candidacy, but he has yet to indicate what his 2026 political plans entail.  Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Michigan:  A Mitchell Research & Communications poll for the Michigan Information and Research Service (3/13; 688 MI likely voters; 303 MI likely Democratic primary voters; 281 MI likely Republican primary voters; text) finds Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leading her Democratic primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, 55-12%. 

In general election pairings between Ms. Benson and three different potential Republican challengers, US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon, and former Attorney General Mike Cox, the spread is three points for Benson over James and two each against Dixon and Cox.  The splits suggest a virtual tie because no candidate even reaches the 40% plateau in any hypothetical pairing. 

Minnesota:  Ex-St. Cloud City Councilman Jeff Johnson (R) announced his gubernatorial candidacy, but he should not be confused with 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial nominee and former Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) who is also considering entering the 2026 campaign.

New Jersey:  The New Jersey Globe online news site released a gubernatorial poll from Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (D) that again shows all of the major Democratic candidates clustered within a few points.  The MDW data organization, which the Globe reports conducted its first ever poll and is a vendor to Mr. Baraka, commissioned the survey over the March 19-20 period from text messages to a sampling universe of 935 New Jersey likely Democratic primary voters. 

Like other released studies of this race, the MDW data finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading the pack with 14% support in comparison to Mayor Baraka’s 12 percent.  Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, NJ Education Association president Sean Spiller, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney trail with 9-8-5 and 5% support, respectively.

New Mexico:  Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman (D), the father of Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman who made his name with the Houston Astros, has planned a political announcement for April 10th.  It appears he will join the Democratic gubernatorial primary and challenge former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland.  Also in the race is former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima. 

Ms. Haaland is the clear early favorite for the party nomination and in the general election.  She is well positioned to become term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s (D) successor.

Ohio:  Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) announced his endorsement of businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the open Ohio Governor’s race, joining both President Trump and Elon Musk who previously issued their endorsements.  In the Republican primary, Attorney General Dave Yost is Mr. Ramasamy’s opponent.  Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is barred through the state’s election law from running for a third term.

For his part, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) indicates he still is looking at either running for Governor or Senator, but also says he may not again seek public office.

Tennessee:  US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made his long awaited announcement for Governor during the week, which many believe may be a political suicide run if Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) follows through and runs for Governor as expected.  Sen. Blackburn was quoted as saying “I intend to run,” but has yet to launch a formal campaign.  Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the race will be open in 2026. 

For Rep. Rose’s 6th District, reports from Nashville suggest that state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville) is beginning to prepare a congressional campaign bid.  Another individual who may run is former Congressman Van Hilleary (R), who served four terms in the House from 1995-2003.  Mr. Hilleary returned to the House as Congressman Rose’s chief of staff.

STATE AND LOCAL

Pennsylvania:  Democrats won a state Senate special election in a district that President Trump carried by 15 points and hasn’t elected a Democrat since voting for President Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  Once again, we see a pattern of poor Republican performance in special elections.  The Democrats’ 50-49% victory gives them 23 seats in the state Senate as compared to the Republicans’ 27. 
 
Utah:  The Utah legislature sent Gov. Spencer Cox (R) a bill to repeal the state’s universal mail election law.  Previously, every Utah voter was sent a live ballot in order to conduct the election through the mail.  It appears Utah will return to the more traditional in-person form of voting assuming Gov. Cox signs the bill as expected.