Senate passage of budget resolution advances President Trump’s agenda

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  The Senate held a marathon vote session on Friday night, ending with the early Saturday passage of a budget resolution that advances President Trump’s widespread agenda.  The measure, as passed, departs from the House version in a few key areas and has sparked criticism from deficit hardliners.  Meanwhile, lawmakers are mixed in their reactions to the President’s massive trade announcement last week—Speaker Mike Johnson has urged support from his caucus with a message to trust the President after his first term economy.  Some Senators and House Republicans, however, have introduced legislation to reclaim some Congressional authority over trade decisions.  The legislation will almost certainly go nowhere, but is representative of a wider split from the President than is frequently seen.

Financial Services and Banking Updates:

Banking Committee to Hear Bowman Testimony: The Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing this week for six nominees to various positions across HUD, Treasury, Commerce, and the Fed.  The highest profile of these nominees is Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who is slated to be the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair for Supervision.  She has often served as a counter to her predecessor, Vice Chair Barr, and her nomination was met with commendations from Republican Banking Senators and banking industry representatives.

House Subcommittees Examine HUD Accountability, Treasury Debt, and Digital Assets: There is no full committee activity this week in the Financial Services Committee, but a lot of activity at the subcommittee or task force level.  The Oversight subcommittee will hear testimony from HUD’s Acting Inspector General on the subject of waste, fraud, and abuse and will review legislation mandating the annual appearance and testimony of HUD’s IG before the Committee.  The Task Force on Monetary Policy will review how Treasury securities are used to further monetary policy goals. Finally, the Digital Assets Subcommittee will hear testimony from legal witnesses on the application of securities laws to digital assets and the impacts on innovation.

Atkins To Receive Floor Vote: On Saturday, immediately following the budget resolution vote, cloture was filed on Paul Atkins’ nomination to serve as SEC Chair, setting up a floor vote later this week.  This follows Atkins’ 13-11 vote in the Senate Banking Committee to advance his nomination last Thursday.

USTR to Testify on Trade: Appearing tomorrow in the Senate Finance Committee and Wednesday in the House Ways and Means Committee, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will testify on President Trump’s 2025 trade agenda.  The two hearings will likely receive significant attention as the President’s recent tariff announcement has significantly impacted trade relationships and global markets.

Congressional Updates:

Johnson Wants Budget Vote: Speaker Mike Johnson has been pushing his conference hard to coalesce around the joint budget resolution that passed the Senate early Saturday morning.  He wants a vote this week—likely Wednesday—before Congress heads out of town for a two-week Easter recess.  At the moment, there are a lot of ‘no’ votes in his conference.  Deficit-conscious members worry about differences between the Senate and House in their deficit reduction targets.  The Senate’s revisions allow for smaller spending cuts, larger tax cuts, and a bigger debt limit increase.  House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington voiced his opposition on a call on Sunday afternoon.  Other objections argue that the resolution does not do enough to advance the President’s agenda.  That said, President Trump has shown his willingness to twist the arms of reluctant members, and so we expect that many of these detractors will be convinced to support the resolution later this week.  And as a reminder, this budget resolution is simply the blueprint.  The real challenge comes when the reconciliation bill is written and the spending and tax cuts are itemized.

Administration Updates:

CFPB to Review 1071 Rulemaking: The CFPB staff has been directed to initiate a new rulemaking for its Section 1071 small business loan data collection rule, which has been the subject of court challenges and Congressional scrutiny.  The CFPB’s current rule expanded the categories of small business data collection from those required by Congress.  Congress had previously disapproved the measure via the Congressional Review Act, but President Biden vetoed the resolution.  In a similar effort, the House Financial Services Committee advanced legislation in its recent April 2nd markup to repeal the rule.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis:

SENATE

Fundraising:  Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously.  US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025.  The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter.  Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15th.

Minnesota:  Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D).  It is expected that Mr. Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG.  Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen.  US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate. 

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

South Carolina:  Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished.  This week, President Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent.  US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Texas:  A new Texas statewide poll shows Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a hypothetical Senate Republican primary, but the survey contains several flaws. 

Lake Research and Slingshot Strategies partnered on a poll for the Texas Public Opinion Research organization (reported only as March 2025; 700 TX registered voters) and though the study was designed predominantly to test issues and attitudes, the ballot test between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton, showing the incumbent trailing the challenger 38-27% before a Republican vote segment, cannot be considered reliable. 

The small sample size (315 self-identified Republican respondents at most) and other methodological flaws suggest that this ballot test result should be ignored.

A Super PAC entitled Standing for Texas launched a seven figure ad buy to promote Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston).  The ad is airing in TX metro areas outside of Hunt’s home base in Houston.  The ads may be a prelude to Hunt’s entry into the Senate race.

HOUSE

AZ-5:  Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District.  Additionally, former state Representative Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week.  A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor.  

The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7:  Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election.  The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Representative Daniel Hernandez. 

Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination.  The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the September 23rd special election.  Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13th.

CA-32:  Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California US Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. 

Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term.  Mr. Rakov says he is challenging Mr. Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.”  Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. 

Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

FL-1:  As expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned in Tuesday’s special congressional election.  Since the western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Mr. Patronis won.  The Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner, however.  Mr. Patronis will serve the balance of the current Congress and likely seek election to a full term in 2026. 

FL-6:  Despite what appeared to be the potential of a Democratic upset in Florida’s 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine on Tuesday secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

While Sen. Fine was being outraised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation.  The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes.  This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls.  In the end, Mr. Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes, which translates into 56.7% of the vote.

NY-4:  It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign.  President Trump announced this week that Mr. D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor.  Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Ms. Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch.  Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13:  Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49% tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. 

The district, however, may be different than in 2024.  Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles.  Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks. 

GOVERNOR

California:  Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year.  Mr. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President and ex-California Senator and Attorney General Kamala Harris decides to run.  Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate. 

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Ms. Harris decides to enter.  Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.  Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Ms. Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer.  The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. 

Georgia:  US Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced this week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor.  She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him.  It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor.  She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.  Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination.  The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate. 

South Carolina:  First Tuesday Strategies poll (3/19-21; 500 SC likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6% clip.

STATE AND LOCAL

Arkansas:  Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice.  In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot.  The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month.  This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3rd. 

Wisconsin:  In the Badger States’s Supreme Court regular election, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democratic circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45% margin to maintain the party’s 4-3 majority on the court.  The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state’s congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

Boston:  Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite.  Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. 

Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft.  The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

New York:  After a federal judge dismissed the bribery charges that the Trump Justice Department recommend be dropped, NYC Mayor Eric Adams announced that he will leave the Democratic Party and seek re-election as an Independent candidate. 

Performing poorly in polling, Mr. Adams, fresh from his legal burden, is embarking upon a different strategy.  He hopes running on the Independent line will allow him to attract enough Republican and Independent votes, along with his base Democratic personal support to propel him into a Ranked Choice runoff likely with former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D).  The move makes the crowded NYC late June mayoral race even more interesting.

Oakland:  A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former US Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D).  A new election was called once Ms. Thao was recalled from office during the November election. 

Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (3/17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40%.  Previously, Ms. Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins.  In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis:  It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end.  After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31% lead in the upcoming runoff election.  Four years ago, Ms. Jones defeated Ms. Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.