Joint budget resolution and strategy to proceed with reconciliation
The Golden Apple: March 24, 2025
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. A week-long recess for the House and Senate passed last week with no shortage of activity from the executive branch to keep everyone busy. As lawmakers return to the Hill this week, conversations will continue on a joint budget resolution and strategy to proceed with reconciliation. The one-bill-vs-two-bill question has not yet been resolved; House leaders issued a press release earlier today asserting that their preferred single bill strategy should win out. In a note about scheduling, the House will go out Wednesday for the late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s funeral, and will likely not return until the following week.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
Committee Focuses on Access to Capital: On Tuesday, the full Financial Services Committee will examine access to capital for businesses from startups to established publicly traded companies, as well as investment opportunities for retail investors. The committee will review several legislative proposals aimed at improving capital formation and easing regulatory burden.
Financial Services Subcommittee to Review CFPB: In a hearing scheduled for Wednesday, House lawmakers will question banking industry representatives and former government officials about the structure and function of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB has recently undergone significant changes to its personnel profile and structure, as acting director Russ Vought ordered the agency to halt work and laid off large numbers of the workforce. These actions have been the subject of various lawsuits. At the same time, Jonathan McKernan, nominated to be the agency’s director, awaits his confirmation vote before the Senate, which we expect to be taken up during this April work period.
Atkins, Gould, and Pettit Confirmation Hearing: On the Senate side, the Banking Committee continues to move Trump administration nominees forward. On Thursday, the Committee will hear testimony from Paul Atkins to be SEC Commissioner, Jonathan Gould to be Comptroller of the Currency, and Luke Pettit to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.
April Calendar Announces Markups: The Financial Services Committee released their planned April schedule, and among the items of interest are planned markups on April 2nd and 30th. The House version of stablecoin legislation, the STABLE Act, is rumored to be in the April 2nd markup as long as things don’t slip. The Senate bill, the GENIUS Act, passed through the Banking Committee before the recess, and lawmakers in both chambers are eager to find a deal on the two bills.
Congressional Updates
Reconciliation Timeline Tightens: We touched a bit on the ongoing reconciliation efforts in the opening paragraph. Senate and House leaders will be meeting this week to hammer out a unified strategy, though major divisions remain over the deep cuts to social programs required to fund an extension of the 2017 tax cuts. Lawmakers are in session for three weeks before a two-week planned recess around the Easter holiday. Their hope is to pass a compromise budget resolution before leaving town, though a lot of pieces would need to fall into place quickly for this to happen.
Administration Updates
FinCEN adopts interim Beneficial Ownership Rule: Making good on a previous announcement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network is adopting an interim final rule to require beneficial ownership reporting only from foreign companies. This move is one step in the Treasury’s announced plan to role back the requirements, which passed under the Corporate Transparency Act as part of the 2020 NDAA. The change was lauded by small business representatives, who view the requirements as onerous, but law enforcement warned that this hinders efforts to trace illicit funds and crack down on criminal organizations.
SBA Reduces Staff and Mission: We’ve written previously about the ongoing efforts to restructure the Small Business Administration, not unlike restructuring efforts across the agency landscape. In a Friday press release, the SBA announced that it will reduce its workforce by 43% and consolidate or eliminate certain non-core functions. Primary reductions will come via the agency’s pandemic-era loan programs within the Office of Capital Access. This change comes as President Trump announced that the agency will also assume responsibility for managing federal student loan programs, although this change is one that will almost certainly face challenges in court, as the Department of Education cannot be eliminated without Congressional action.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
SENATE
Louisiana: Five-term Louisiana US Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) announced yesterday that he will not challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) in the state’s new partisan primary system scheduled to take effect next year.
This is the first time Sen. Cassidy will face a partisan Republican primary. Last year, the state legislature, at the behest of Gov. Jeff Landry (R), changed the state law to reinstitute a partisan primary structure for certain offices, including all federal positions. Previously, all candidates were listed only on the general election ballot. If no one received majority support in a particular race, a runoff election between the top two finishers was held during the first week in December.
Should President Trump endorse against Sen. Cassidy, a possibility because the Senator voted to for the second Trump impeachment, and a large primary field forms the chances for a runoff election increase. Incumbents who are forced into a runoff generally fare poorly.
Minnesota: Seventh District US Rep. Michelle Fischbach (R-Regal) announced during the week that she will seek re-election in 2026 and not enter the open US Senate race.
All four of Minnesota’s Republican congressional members, Reps. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano), and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown), along with Ms. Fischbach, have all declined the opportunity to run in the open statewide race. Therefore, the eventual Republican nominee will not be coming from the congressional delegation.
For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen are announced candidates. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is a potential contender. Governor and former Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz has said he will not enter the Senate contest. Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Democrats are favored to hold the seat, but the battle could turn competitive.
Montana: Little has been discussed about potential challenges to two-term Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) but he has now drawn an opponent for the general election. Former state Representative Reilly Neill announced that he will compete for the Democratic Senate nomination with the goal of challenging Mr. Daines in the general election. Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, Sen. Daines will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.
New Hampshire: The state’s two Democratic US Representatives, Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and freshman Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), are confirming they are considering opposing each other in a battle to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).
Neither has made a formal announcement and the expected ultimate decision whether to run from former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) will likely go a long way toward determining exactly who will risk a current political position to enter the US Senate race. If the legislature and Governor decide to move the primary to an earlier date from its traditional September post, as is being considered, we will see quicker decisions being made.
North Carolina: It appears that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has put a freeze on US Senate speculation for at least two months. Mr. Cooper just began an eight-week fellowship at Harvard University and says he will not consider his political future until his commitment to the school is complete.
For his part, ex-US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) says he will run for the Senate but will step aside if Mr. Cooper decides to run. The former Governor is also reportedly contemplating a 2028 presidential candidacy. Incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) has announced he will seek a third term in 2026.
HOUSE
AZ-7: Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson). The party primaries, in accordance with the Arizona statutes governing filling a congressional vacancy, will be held on July 15th, with the special general election on September 23rd. The candidate filing deadline with be April 14th.
Therefore, the 7th District will likely remain vacant until September 25th. Democrats will hold the seat, and the late Congressman’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Ms. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father’s funeral on March 26th. Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election.
NJ-9: Sales consultant Billy Prempeh (R), who held New Jersey freshman Rep. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) to a surprisingly close 51-46% margin in November, says he will return for a re-match in 2026. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NJ-9 as D+17, so it will be interesting to see if this seat moves to a more competitive position on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s offensive target list.
NY-21: New York US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is finally going to get her Senate confirmation vote to become US Ambassador to the United Nations. The House leadership asked that the confirmation be postponed because her vote was needed in the razor-thin Republican majority. The confirmation procedure has been scheduled for April 2nd, the day after two Republican congressional candidates will win special elections to increase the internal GOP advantage.
NC-5: Retired newspaper reporter and 2024 congressional nominee Chuck Hubbard (D) announced that he will return to again challenge Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk). In November, Rep. Foxx was re-elected with a 59-41% count. The bigger question may be whether the veteran incumbent and chair of the House Rules Committee, who will be 83 years of age at the next election, will seek a 12th term.
TX-18: Though the special election to replace the late Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has not yet been scheduled, candidates are beginning to come forward. Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) announced that he will enter the special election.
Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D) daughter. Ms. Carter represented the seat after her mother died and before Mr. Turner’s term began. Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) also announced her candidacy.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point but has no legal time requirement to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we could see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special general election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.
GOVERNOR
Colorado: While the Republicans will be severe underdogs in the 2026 open Governors’ race, the party nomination appears valuable. A third sitting GOP office holder announced his gubernatorial candidacy during the week. Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell joins state Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salida) and state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) in the field hoping to replace term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).
On the Democratic side, observers are waiting for US Sen. Michael Bennet to soon announce his own gubernatorial candidacy.
STATE AND LOCAL
New Hampshire: New Hampshire is one of four states, Delaware, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island being the others, that still hold September primaries. Though the Granite State hosts the “First in the Nation” primary during presidential elections, it is one of the last to nominate it state and federal candidates.
This could be changing. A bill in the legislature that Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports would schedule the primary earlier, thus alleviating the complaints that most have about a too short general election cycle. Some want to move to August, others, like Gov. Ayotte, prefer June. It remains to be seen if the New Hampshire leaders will reverse their long standing late primary tradition.