The four-week focus on the reconciliation package

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  Members are coming back to Washington, DC, today after a two-week recess for Easter. This four-week stretch will take us to Memorial Day and will be largely focused on getting the reconciliation package across the floor.  In the House, individual committees are producing their separate titles, with numerous markups scheduled for this week (more on that below). 

Financial Services and Banking Updates

Capital Markets Subcommittee Reviews Proxy Advisory Firms: On Tuesday, Rep. Ann Wagner of the Capital Markets Subcommittee will hold a hearing examining the role of proxy advisory firms, specifically Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, in shaping shareholder voting outcomes. The hearing includes discussion drafts of six pieces of legislation to amend securities laws and make changes to proxy advisory rules. 

Financial Institutions Subcommittee Targets Regulatory Overreach: The Committee continues its hearing series focused on improving community banking on Tuesday, with a review of 15 legislative measures aimed at tailoring regulations and supervisory actions to match the size and complexity of financial institutions.  

Senate Banking Focuses on Insurance Markets and Disaster Mitigation: In a Thursday hearing, the Senate Banking Committee will hear testimony from insurance industry witnesses on the state of insurance markets and the efficacy of policies aimed at improving resiliency and mitigation.  

Financial Services Committee Releases Reconciliation Title: Last Friday evening, the Financial Services Committee released their portion of the reconciliation bill.  At just six pages, the committee print is far shorter than the titles other committees will contribute, but includes recission of funds in several areas that will be used to offset tax cuts.  Specifically, the bill would eliminate the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), the audit regulator in charge of reviewing public companies. The PCAOB would be rolled into the SEC, along with its intellectual property, pending enforcement and disciplinary actions, and duties/powers of the Board. This raises some questions, as currently companies appealing a PCAOB ruling do so to the SEC, so it is unclear how that function would transfer. Second, the reconciliation text bars the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau from carrying unobligated balances in excess of 5% of its total funding, transferring any unobligated balances back to the Treasury.  Similarly, the Treasury will recoup all funds contained in the CFPB’s Civil Penalty Fund, the account where payouts from CFPB enforcement actions are housed that is used to fund consumer redress.  The Bureau’s FY 2024 Year-End Report to the CFO lists the Civil Penalty Fund’s total unallocated balance at $118 million. 

Congressional Updates

Committees Schedule Reconciliation Markups: In addition to the Financial Services Committee Print outlined above, many of the 12 committees with portions of the reconciliation bill will be marking up their text this week. Marking up tomorrow, April 29th, will be Armed Services, Defense, Education & Workforce, and Homeland Security.  Following those on April 30th will be Financial Services, Judiciary, Oversight & Government Reform, and Transportation & Infrastructure. The remaining four committees (Agriculture, Energy & Commerce, Natural Resources, and Ways & Means) do not have formally noticed markups. However, Energy & Commerce is said to be targeting May 7th to debate their title, with Agriculture and Natural Resources also expected to go that week, and Ways & Means is expected to go the following week.  E&C and W&M committees will comprise very large portions of the bill, hence the longer timelines. 

Administration Updates

CFPB Battle Continues in Court: Tomorrow, the CFPB’s case continues with a hearing in federal court over the Trump administration’s attempted reduction of approximately 90% of the agency’s workforce. Over the weekend, both the plaintiff and the defendant filed a substantial amount of documentation, and then jointly filed a request to the judge to postpone the hearing from Monday (today) to Tuesday to allow time to review the new material.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

Senate

Illinois:  In what had been expected for some weeks, and particularly since the 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports revealed that Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) had campaign receipts totaling only $42,000 since the beginning of the year, the veteran Illinois lawmaker released a statement indicating that he will not seek re-election to a sixth US Senate term next year. 

When the 119th Congress concludes, Mr. Durbin will have completed 44 years of combined elected office service including his time in the Senate and House.  He will be 82 years old at the time of the next election and would be 88 if he were to run and serve an entire new term. The Illinois Senate race, due to the state’s voting history in recent decades, will largely be decided in an open Democratic primary scheduled for next March 17th. 

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) is the first to announce a Senate candidacy. Those believed to be interested in running include a trio of US Representatives, Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), and potentially state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Several weeks ago, Attorney General Kwame Raoul (D) made a public statement saying he would not run for the Senate even if Mr. Durbin decided to retire.

Kentucky:  US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) announced that he will enter the open Kentucky US Senate race next year. He will face former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in next year’s Republican primary. 

Mr. Barr begins with a major cash advantage since he is able to transfer $5.4 million from his congressional campaign to the Senate race. This compares to Mr. Cameron’s $460,000 cash-on-hand figure. The big question is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D) will run for the Senate. If he does, this will be a competitive race. If not, the eventual Republican nominee will be favored. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) is retiring after serving what will be seven full terms.

Michigan:  US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) announced that she will risk her safe congressional seat and enter the open Michigan US Senate race. Already in the contest is state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) and Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Attorney General Dana Nessel, ineligible to seek a third term for her present office, is another potential Democratic candidate. 

For the Republicans, former US Representative and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers is working to become a consensus party candidate. Sen. Gary Peters (D) is retiring. This will be one of the top Senate races in the 2026 election cycle.

New Hampshire:  US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), who had been mentioned as a possible candidate for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat, announced during the week that she will seek re-election in 2026. Ms. Goodlander then endorsed her congressional colleague, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), for the Senate opening. The move continues to clear a path for Mr. Pappas to secure the Democratic Senate nomination and become an early consensus candidate. Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not seeking re-election.

House

AZ-5:  Former NFL place kicker Jay Feeley announced that he will enter the open 5th Congressional District Republican primary to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. Mr. Feeley had a fourteen-year career in the NFL, playing for seven different teams, including the Arizona Cardinals. For the past few years, he has been a sideline reporter for CBS Sports. 

Six other Republicans have announced their candidacies, the most notable of which is former state Representative Travis Grantham. The 5th District is solidly Republican, meaning Rep. Biggs’ successor will effectively win the seat in the GOP primary.  President Trump carried the district with a 59-39% margin last November according to The Down Ballot political blog statisticians.

AZ-7:  Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), daughter of late Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), released an internal survey for the July 15th special election to replace her father, who passed away in March. The Public Policy Polling figures (4/6-7; 527 AZ-7 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) see Ms. Grijalva leading former state Representative Daniel Hernandez (D), 49-11%. The special general election is scheduled for September 23rd.

CA-3:  Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the 2026 jungle qualifying election to challenge two-term US Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) next year. Nevada County is an entity of just over 100,000 residents. Rep. Kiley was re-elected in November with 55.5% of the vote.

CA-41:  Grammy Award-winning bassist Tim Myers (D) declared his congressional candidacy during the week. He will attempt to unseat 17-term Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). In the last two elections, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) held the Congressman to a pair of 52% victories. Earlier this year, Mr. Rollins announced that he would not return for a third run.

IL-9:  Apparently, an announcement plan was leaked well before the principal wanted the information to be made public. In May, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston) has decided to make official her intent not to seek a 15th term next year. Rep. Schakowsky’s 9th District will become the ninth 2026 election cycle open House seat either through member retirement, seeking another office, or death. Of the nine open CDs, Democrats would represent five. 

The 9th District, which contains part of Cook, Lake, and McHenry counties, is solidly Democratic. We can expect a crowded and competitive Democratic primary here in March of next year.

IA-1:  Healthcare worker Travis Terrell (D) announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination to oppose US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire). In November, the Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 799-vote margin over former state Representative Christina Bohannan (D). A return run for Ms. Bohannan is a possibility, but she has yet to come forward. 

Rep. Miller-Meeks is revealing political weakness. She only won her 2024 Republican primary with 56% of the vote against an opponent who literally spent no money. While she barely survived the general election, President Trump simultaneously carried the seat with a 54-45% majority. This district will again host a competitive contest in 2026.

IA-2:  Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced that he will challenge three-term US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) next year. Mr. Techau’s decision again gives the Democrats a strong contender to oppose Rep. Hinson. The Congresswoman, however, will again be favored for re-election. She has averaged 55.6% of the vote in her two re-election campaigns.

MI-11:  Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel (D) announced earlier that he would compete in the state’s open 10th Congressional District when incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) declared his intention to run for Governor. Yet, Pontiac is not in the 10th District. Now that Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is risking her 11th District seat to run for the Senate, it is presumed that Mayor Greimel will switch to the open 11th CD since this is where Pontiac lies.

Other Democrats reportedly looking at the 11th District race are ex-US Rep. Andy Levin, who lost to Rep. Stevens when the two were paired after Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, Oakland County Board of Commissioners chairman Dave Wooward, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield), state Sen. Beverly Bayer (D-West Bloomfield), and Oakland County Executive Dave Coulter.

NJ-7:  Former Small Business Administration official and businessman Michael Roth became the seventh Democrat to declare his 2026 congressional candidacy. The crowded Democratic field will compete in a June primary for the right to challenge two-term Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in what promises to be another competitive race.  Mr. Kean was re-elected in November with 52% of the vote.

Governor

California:  Fox News contributor Steve Hilton (R) announced that he will enter the open California Governor’s race during the week. Though a long-shot candidate, Mr. Hilton, originally from Great Britain, has a chance to unite the Republican base, which could propel him into the general election.  At that point, a race between he and Kamala Harris would certainly attract a great deal of attention. 

Democrats are certainly favored to hold the Governorship. Incumbent Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

New York:  A new Siena College poll (4/14-16; 802 NY registered voters; 393 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) winning renomination if she has multiple Democratic primary opponents. The ballot test finds the Governor posting only 44% among likely primary voters, but her most likely Democratic opponents, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), split the anti-Hochul vote: 12% for Delgado, while 9% favor Torres. 

While Ms. Hochul is showing political weakness, unless her intra-party opposition aligns behind one candidate it is probable that she will win renomination.

South Dakota:  State House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) announced his candidacy for Governor this week. The position could be open depending upon Gov. Larry Rhoden’s (R) decision about whether to seek a full term. Mr. Rhoden ascended to the office when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary. 

The person to watch, however, is at-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell). The 1st Quarter campaign finance disclosure reports reveal he has just under $6 million in his campaign account. He is considered a potential gubernatorial contender irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s status.

State and Local

Oakland:  Though trailing in early counting, former Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D) rebounded to win the Oakland recall replacement mayoral election held last week.  After completing California’s exhaustive vote tabulation process, Ms. Lee officially defeated ex-Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D), leading in all nine rounds of the city’s Ranked Choice Voting system. 

The election was held to replace recalled Mayor Sheng Thao (D).  Ms. Lee will now serve through 2026 and is eligible to run for a full four-year term in the ’26 regular election cycle.

Pittsburgh:  More data was released from Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor (D) who is challenging Mayor Ed Gainey (D), and the polling finds incumbent languishing in serious political trouble. 

According to an internal Lake Research survey for the O’Connor campaign (released 4/17 for a period covering late March; 500 Pittsburgh likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), the challenger is posting a 50-32% lead over Mayor Gainey. The numbers represent a margin increase over a February poll that found Mr. O’Connor leading by twelve percentage points.

Should these figures hold, Mr. Gainey will be the second big city Mayor to lose re-election. St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones fell earlier this year also to a fellow Democrat.  The Pittsburgh Democratic primary is scheduled for May 20th.