Reconcilation: Watching to see how it turns out
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. We write this knowing that the moment we hit send, it will become obsolete, because such is the pace of change these days. The main event we are watching continues to be reconciliation. The three remaining committees with the highest profile subjects, Ways & Means, Energy & Commerce, and Agriculture, all plan to mark up their sections of the bill. Even now, members continue to be locked in negotiations on difficult issues like the SALT cap and pushing SNAP costs to states. So, we will be joining all of you watching to see how it turns out.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
House Subcommittees Review Housing, Bank Charters, and Treasury Markets: House Financial Services Subcommittees are in focus this week with hearings on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Housing subcommittee will review strategies to increase housing supply through innovative solutions including manufactured and modular housing. The Financial Institutions subcommittee will hold a hearing on barriers to de novo bank formation, and consolidation in the banking sector. And, the Monetary Policy Task Force will meet on causes of and solutions to weaknesses in Treasury markets.
Stablecoin Legislation Falters in Senate: Last week, the Senate’s once-bipartisan stablecoin bill failed to advance for debate after numerous Senate Democrats vowed to vote against cloture. The Democrats, including 4 who had supported the bill in Committee, argued that the bill that was headed to the floor provided a weaker regulatory regime than what came out of Committee. That said, the backdrop of the Trump family’s personal participation in the crypto markets has caused significant angst for Democrats. Negotiations are ongoing and Majority Leader John Thune intends to bring the bill back up in the coming weeks.
Congressional Updates
Ways and Means Releases Tax Text: Shortly before 3pm, the Ways and Means Committee released text for its portion of the reconciliation bill. To comply with the requirement that text be available 24 hours in advance, the Committee has adjusted its markup back to 2:30pm tomorrow. The markup may last for some time, as even now there are issues upon which members disagree. Most prominently, there is no agreement yet on SALT that we are aware of. What comes out of markup will be more impactful than what was released today, so we will be watching the markup closely.
Administration Updates
McKernan to Lead Treasury Office on Domestic Finance: Last Friday, the Treasury Department announced the nomination of Jonathan McKernan to serve as its Undersecretary for Domestic Finance. McKernan, of course, had until that point been awaiting confirmation to the role of Director of the CFPB, signaling a shift in direction for that agency as well. No rumors yet on who will replace McKernan as the CFPB Director nominee. Timing on confirmations continues to be slow, as Democratic Senators have resisted time agreements for floor consideration in protest over Trump administration activities.
Trump Signs Repeal of CFPB Overdraft Rule, Digital Payments Rule: President Trump has signed measures repealing the CFPB’s rules capping bank overdraft fees and subjecting digital payment tools operated by large company providers to agency supervision. Both measures are Biden-era measures passed the Senate in March and the House of Representatives last month. The overdraft measure would have capped overdraft fees at just $5 and was part of the Biden administration’s initiative to combat “junk fees”. The digital payments rule would have allowed the CFPB to supervise large nonbank service providers operating digital wallets and payment platforms for compliance in areas including fraud, privacy, and debanking.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
Senate
Georgia: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.
The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (4/15-24; 1,000 GA registered voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46%. Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading Mr. King 51-38%, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37%. The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright.
Illinois: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) announced their campaigns for the Senate this week, and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) is soon expected to follow. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), who both Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) support, is also an announced candidate.
Public Policy Polling released the first poll of the growing Democratic Senate primary. The survey (4/29-30; 674 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Krishnamoorthi leading the pack of contenders with 20% compared to Rep. Underwood’s 16%. Lt. Gov. Stratton posted 13% and Rep. Kelly trailed with 8% support.
Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) released an internal poll from Ragnar Research Partners (4/14-16; 600 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) that gives the incumbent a 45-18% lead over State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R). Meanwhile, Democratic leaders continue their attempts to convince former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Democratic nomination.
New Hampshire: US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is moving forward with his goal of becoming a consensus Democratic US Senate candidate striving to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).
Former US Rep. Annie Kuster (D), who said she would consider running for the Senate if Rep. Pappas didn’t, just endorsed the Congressman’s 2026 campaign. Rep. Pappas also has the public support of New Hampshire US Sens. Shaheen and Maggie Hassan (D), US Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua), and former four-term Gov. John Lynch (D).
The likely pairing for the open 2026 Senate race is Rep. Pappas versus former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown (R) since ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R) declined to run. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat.
House
CO-3: Private equity investor Alex Kelloff (D) announced that he will challenge freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) next year. Mr. Hurd defeated Democrat Adam Frisch in November with a 51-46% margin. At one time, Mr. Frisch had raised more money than any other Democrat in the country, but that was when Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) held the 3rd CD. When she transferred to the open 4th District, Mr. Frisch’s political prospects drastically changed.
The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean for this district. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank CO-3 as the 51st most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Also, according to Down Ballot, President Trump secured a 53-44% victory here over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The 2026 race will again be competitive, but Rep. Hurd will have the clear advantage for re-election.
IL-9: US Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston) announced her retirement during the week. The Congresswoman, 80 years of age, was first elected to the House in 1998 after serving four terms in the Illinois House of Representatives. Ms. Schakowsky is the third member of the Illinois delegation to not seek re-election in 2026.
Reps. Robin Kelly (R-Matteson/Chicago) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) are running for the Senate. Rep. Lauren Underwood (R-Naperville) is also expected to join the statewide race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D). There are currently 14 open House seats in anticipation of the next election. Democrats currently hold nine of the 14.
IA-3: US Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) announced this week that he will not enter the state’s open Governor’s race. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) announced her congressional challenge to the two-term Congressman. The 3rd District is politically marginal with the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 49.8R – 47.0D partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank IA-3 as the 19th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.
ME-2: Former Governor Paul LePage (R) announced that he will return to Maine from Florida and enter the GOP primary with the goal of challenging four-term US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). It is likely that the former Governor will face GOP primary competition. Mr. Theriault could return after coming within a percentage point of upsetting Rep. Golden last year, and state Rep. Mike Soboleski (R-Phillips) who lost the 2024 congressional primary says he is “not closing the door on running again.”
For his part, Rep. Golden has been quiet about 2026 plans. He is often mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate, but has made no move to enter the race. He’s even hinted he may retire from elective politics. Therefore, we can expect to see more action soon coming from the northern Maine congressional district.
MA-8: Twelve-term US Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath. The 8th District is heavily Democratic (Harris 62-36%; Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2D – 37.7R), so any threat to Rep. Lynch will come in his quest for renomination. It remains to be seen if Mr. Roath can generate a campaign. At this point, Rep. Lynch is once again favored for re-nomination and re-election.
NE-2: Businesswoman and political organizer Denise Powell (D) announced her candidacy against Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), who is publicly contemplating retirement. Mr. Bacon has won five tight races in the politically marginal 2nd and the 2026 race will again be close irrespective of the candidates.
Former state Senator Tony Vargas (D), who twice lost to Rep. Bacon in 2022 and 2024, is unlikely to return. Democrats are looking for a top-flight challenger to Bacon, so it is likely we will see at least one more entry in addition to Ms. Powell.
PA-7: Ex-congressional aide Carol Obando-Derstine (D), with the support of former three-term Congresswoman Susan Wild (D), entered the 2026 race to oppose freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie). In November, Mr. Mackenzie, then a state Representative, unseated then-Rep. Wild, 50.5 – 49.5%, as President Trump was carrying the swing district with a 51-48% margin.
In the Democratic primary race is Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, and others are expected to join. The PA-7 race will again be tight and one of the key national congressional races to determine the next US House majority.
Governor
Alaska: Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and former state Sen. Click Bishop (R), a self-proclaimed “Lisa Murkowski moderate,” each filed a gubernatorial campaign during the week. For the Democrats, all eyes are on former US Rep. Mary Peltola who will have an easy ride to the party nomination and would wage a very competitive general election campaign. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Iowa: US Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/Des Moines) announced this week that he would not enter the open Governor’s race, thus setting up another competitive US House re-election effort.
Rep. Nunn becomes the third Iowa US Representative to decline a bid for Governor. Previously, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) said they would not run statewide. The remaining member of the Iowa House delegation, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), has not made a statement about running for Governor. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has announced that she will not seek a third full term next year.
The lone Democratic statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, is expected to become a gubernatorial candidate. The 2026 open race will be competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee will begin with a definitive edge.
Maine: Angus King, III, son of the state’s junior Independent Senator and former Governor of the same name, announced that he will join the Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). He becomes the second major Democrat to enter the party primary. Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the other officially announced candidate.
Rhode Island: Helena Foulkes, who challenged Gov. Dan McKee in the 2022 Rhode Island Democratic primary but lost to the incumbent 33-30% after then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary in the Biden Administration, has seriously outraised the incumbent during the 1st quarter campaign period. Ms. Foulkes attracted $610,000 during the quarter and reports $1.6 million in her campaign account. This compares Gov. Dan McKee’s $260,000 raised and $750,000 cash-on-hand.
Wisconsin: Washington County Executive Joe Schoemann (R) announced that he will enter the 2026 Governor’s race where he will likely face incumbent Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) who is expected to seek a third term. Mr. Schoemann is the first Republican to officially enter the 2026 Badger State Governor’s race.
State and Local
Cincinnati: Mayor Aftab Pureval (D) easily placed first in the city’s jungle Mayoral primary, taking 83% of the vote. In the November general election, he will face second place finisher Cory Bowman, who garnered 13% support. Mr. Bowman is a local pastor who is the half-brother of Vice President J.D. Vance. Considering his primary performance, Mayor Pureval is heavily favored for re-election.
New York City: Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who leads the Democratic primary in every poll, appears to be taking no chances about advancing into the general election. Reports from the Big Apple suggest that Mr. Cuomo is behind the effort to form the “Fight and Deliver” Party. Under New York’s electoral system, a candidate can appear on more than one party line.
Therefore, if Fight and Deliver can qualify as a political party, Mr. Cuomo, as its mayoral nominee, would be guaranteed a ballot line for the general election even if he were to lose the Democratic nomination. The NYC primary is scheduled for June 24th.
San Antonio: A total of 27 candidates competed for the open San Antonio Mayor’s position and two advanced into the June 7th runoff. Twice failed congressional candidate Gina Ortiz Jones (D) placed first within the massive candidate field with 27.2% of the vote. Her runoff opponent will be former Secretary of State and ex-Texas Public Utilities Commissioner Rolando Pablos (D) who placed second at 16.6%. Mayor Ron Nirenberg (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.