May was an eventful month

The Golden Apple: June 2, 2025

Welcome back to the Golden Apple. May was an eventful month, with the reconciliation bill sticking to timelines (against many predictions) and passing the House of Representatives. This month will be devoted to the Senate, as Majority Leader John Thune pushes to get the bill on the President’s desk by July 4th. We will outline a few items to watch, as well as our usual financial services updates, in the paragraphs below.  The House will be in for the next two weeks before recessing again for the week of Juneteenth. The Senate will have a short week that week, as well. 

Financial Services and Banking Updates

Genius Act Vote Expected: After bipartisan negotiations temporarily stalled, the Senate’s stablecoin regulatory bill, the Genius Act, appears to be on track for Senate passage this week. A cloture vote on the bill previously failed, despite bipartisan support in Committee, because Senate Democrats were concerned about changes made after markup regarding AML protections, among other issues. 

Now, these issues appear to be resolved, but Majority Leader John Thune’s pledge to return to regular order and an open amendment process have raised concerns about potential poison pills being added.  Specifically, Senator Durbin’s Credit Card Competition Act, which would prohibit credit card issuers from restricting networks available to merchants processing credit card transactions, is seen as likely to be offered as an amendment. This bill, which divides the financial services industry and the major retailers, would attach a highly divisive issue to a carefully negotiated package. 

However, if it does end up being offered as an amendment, we expect a vote on CCCA to fail, as even Senator Hagerty, the Genius Act’s chief author, has pledged to vote against his own legislation should CCCA be added. We anticipate that several other Senators would take a similar position, voting against the CCCA (even if they support the policy) to ensure smooth passage of the Genius Act.

Hill Releases Market Structure Text: Last Thursday, Financial Services Chair French Hill released bipartisan market structure legislation to create a regulatory system governing the sale of digital assets. The CLARITY Act of 2025, which has been jointly negotiated between the Financial Services Committee and the House Agriculture Committee, was introduced with the support of two Democrats: Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), Ranking Member of the Agriculture Committee, and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY). Remember that Rep. Craig is also running for Senate in Minnesota. The 236-page bill creates a regime for crypto platforms to register with the CFTC or the SEC, depending on whether they are trading in digital assets commodities or securities, or both. The bill creates disclosure requirements, mandates the segregation of customer funds, and clarifies jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC. The full Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to consider the legislation this Wednesday and is expected for the June 10th markup.

Data Privacy Under Review in FSC Subcommittee: On Thursday, the Financial Institutions Subcommittee will hold a hearing reviewing data privacy in today’s financial system. This topic is perennially discussed in the Committee, as attempts to update Graham-Leach-Bliley in light of participation in the financial sector from tech companies has raised jurisdictional issues between Committees. 

Congressional Updates

Reconciliation in Senate Focus: As we all know, the GOP tax package passed the House before the Memorial Day recess and now faces a new slew of challenges in the Senate. To begin, the Senate returns to Washington today, and Finance Committee Republicans will meet for dinner this evening. The full conference’s regular policy lunch will follow tomorrow. While we can speculate on a number of issues right now, we do expect that the two meetings will bring more clarity on what issues will be top priority, and who the bill’s main holdouts will be. 

Some Senators have been public about their concerns: for example, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has been vocally opposed to Medicaid cuts. Similarly, the hard-fought increases to the SALT deduction earned in the House finds no natural constituency in the Senate.  Furthermore, the parliamentary “Byrd bath” process will determine which provisions go against the rules of reconciliation, meaning they don’t directly impact spending or revenue. 

Looking at the timing, a goal of completion by July 4th must include a resolution of issues within the Senate Republican Conference, a scrub by the Parliamentarian of issues immediately ruled to violate the Byrd rule, a further review of issues Democrats challenge via the Byrd rule process, a re-coalescing of Republicans around the finished process (that hopefully aligns enough with the House position to pass the lower chamber again), and a vote. Factor in that the Senate is out for half of the week of Juneteenth. Suffice it to say, it is a lot to get done. Again, we expect more to come tonight and tomorrow. 

Administration Updates

SEC Hosts Crypto DeFi Roundtable: Next Monday, June 9th, the SEC’s Crypto Task Force will host a roundtable titled “DeFi and the American Spirit”. The event will feature remarks from SEC Commissioners and Richard Gabbard, Chief of Staff of the Crypto Task Force, as well as a moderated discussion with market participants and academics. 

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Alabama:  As expected, US Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) formally announced what had been hinted at for weeks: that is, he will run for Governor. The Tuberville decision will open Alabama’s Senate race, and a huge Republican field is expected to form. For the Democrats, ex-Sen. Doug Jones is the most formidable prospective candidate, but he has not yet made the decision to run.

At this point, Sen. Tuberville appears to be a lock for the open GOP gubernatorial nomination; therefore, he will be a heavy favorite in the general election.  Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Arizona:  State Treasurer Kimberly Yee (R), who was considered a possible 2026 gubernatorial candidate, instead announced this week that she will run for state Superintendent of Public Instruction. This likely winnows the GOP nomination campaign field to two major contenders, US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. President Trump has jointly endorsed both candidates.  The eventual nominee will face Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) in the general election.

Georgia:  A recently released Cygnal survey research firm poll finds the Republican Senate candidate pool pulling closer to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), but the two best available performers aren’t yet in the race.

The Cygnal poll (5/15-17; 800 GA likely voters; live interview & text) projects that Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) runs barely ahead of Sen. Ossoff, 44.3 to 44.1%.  US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) appears next strongest, trailing the incumbent, 45.7 – 44.3%. Neither, however, are Senate candidates. 

The announced candidates, however, fall into the same close polling realm.  Sen. Ossoff would lead US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), 46-42%, while state Agriculture Commissioner John King trails the Senator by a slightly closer 45-42% split.

The Georgia race promises to be one of the most hotly contested battleground Senate campaigns of the 2026 election cycle. It is clearly the Republicans’ best chance to convert a Democratic seat so the party will be all-in here, regardless of which Republican will ultimately challenge Sen. Ossoff.

South Carolina:  Democrat Annie Andrews, who unsuccessfully challenged US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) in 2022, announced that she will oppose Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) next year. The Senator is already facing Republican primary competition from wealthy businessman Mark Lynch. 

Mr. Graham’s GOP challenger recently released an internal campaign poll from Pulse Opinion Research (5/15-21; 1,062 SC likely voters) that projected the incumbent’s lead at only 43-29%. According to a Breitbart News article, Sen. Graham’s campaign attacked the poll as “fake news” for failing to inform voters that President Trump has already endorsed the incumbent for re-election.

Texas:  Sen. John Cornyn (R), faces a major fight for renomination against Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and possibly US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Senator now sees some relief coming as a major Trump political figure, former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita, has joined a Super PAC leadership team to help Mr. Cornyn in the coming election. 

Texans for a Conservative Majority will be the principal outside organization that promotes Sen. Cornyn in the 2026 election. AG Paxton has been close to the Trump organization for years, while the President’s political coalition in Texas has not been as favorable toward the incumbent. The Super PAC move is designed to get Cornyn closer to Trump with the hope of persuading the President not to endorse Mr. Paxton in the upcoming Republican primary.

The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University sponsored a YouGov statewide survey (5/9-19; 1,200 TX registered voters; 564 TX likely Republican primary voters; online) and again found Sen. Cornyn trailing in a GOP primary poll. This ballot test finds AG Paxton leading Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Hunt, 34-27-15%, respectively.

West Virginia:  Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), planning to seek a third term, has drawn a 2026 Republican primary opponent.  State Sen. Tom Willis (R-Martinsburg) announced at the end of last week that he will file for the statewide office. Sen. Capito, in a state that continues to grow more Republican, is rated as a prohibitive favorite for renomination and re-election.

HOUSE

NV-3:  Drew Johnson, who last November held US Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 51-49% re-election margin in one of 13 districts that voted for President Trump and a Democratic US Representative, announced that he will forgo a re-match with Rep. Lee.  Mr. Johnson instead declared his candidacy in the open State Treasurer’s race.  In the 3rd District contest, already six Republicans have announced their candidacy including 2024 candidate Marty O’Donnell, a business owner and music composer.

NH-1:  Former Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen (D), daughter of retiring US Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D), announced that she will enter the open 1st District congressional race. At this point, the only declared candidate is Marine veteran Maura Sullivan. 

The 1st CD is a lean Democratic eastern New Hampshire district that at one time, for the period from 2004 to 2018, was the most swing CD in the country. US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is running for the Shaheen open Senate seat and appears to be on his way to becoming a consensus Democratic candidate.

VA-11:  While it appears key Democratic prospective congressional candidates are lining up behind Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax), once person joining the primary field is Fairfax County Planning Commissioner Candice Bennett. 

She joins Mr. Walkinshaw and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville) in the forming Democratic primary. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will soon schedule the special election to replace Rep. Connolly who passed away on May 21st.

GOVERNOR

Maine:  Veteran state Senator James Libby (R-Standish), who unsuccessfully ran for Governor all the way back in 2002, announced this week that he will enter the open 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary. Currently in the race is former US Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles, local official Robert Wessels, and businessman Owen McCarthy. 

The Democrats already have a crowded field featuring Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King, III, and ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson. Former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven; Portland), is expected to soon announce her candidacy.  Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to run for a third term.

Michigan:  The Glengariff Group survey research firm released a statewide survey (5/5-8; 600 MI registered voters; live interview) that finds a tight three-way open gubernatorial race among Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), and Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I).
 
The original ballot test for the three most likely general election competitors finds a 34.5-30-21.5% split among Benson, James, and Duggan, respectively.  In the Detroit metro area, however, it is Mr. Duggan who leads with 35.8%, followed by Ms. Benson’s 33.0% preference, and Rep. James’ 23.9% support factor. Both Benson and James have large leads in the Glengariff respective Democratic and Republican primary ballot tests. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is term-limited.

New Jersey:  We see further evidence that US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) is pulling away in the crowded 2025 Democratic gubernatorial primary.  A newly released internal poll for the Sherrill campaign (Global Strategy Group; 5/10-13; 600 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Rep. Sherrill leading her closest opponent, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, by a 33-16% count. 

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, and Montclair Mayor and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller trail with 15-11-7-6%, respectively. 

The New Jersey primary is scheduled for June 10th.  Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited.  Should Ms. Sherrill or Mr. Gottheimer win the Governorship in November, a special election will then be scheduled to fill her or his vacant congressional seat.

New Mexico:  Former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland, who for a time looked to have a clear shot at the open Democratic gubernatorial nomination, is finding a much rockier intra-party road. 

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (D) announced his gubernatorial candidacy during the week, joining Ms. Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, father of Boston Red Sox baseball star Alex Bregman, in what will now be a competitive Democratic primary. The winner of the June primary will have the inside track to winning the general election against the eventual Republican nominee. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New York:  A political survey that the New York Post recently covered found US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) drawing into a virtual general election tie with New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) according to the study’s ballot test result.

The co/efficient survey research firm conducted their New York poll in early May (5/1-2; 1,163 NY likely voters; live interview & text) and the results showed Gov. Hochul holding only a 43-42% lead over Rep. Stefanik, meaning a virtual dead heat. 

In a hypothetical Republican primary, co/efficient sees Ms. Stefanik leading US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R), 56-9-8%. The Hochul job approval number stood at 44:46% favorable to unfavorable.

At this point, it appears likely that Rep. Stefanik will enter the Governor’s race since the early signs surrounding her proposed candidacy are relatively positive.

Ohio:  Former US Senator Sherrod Brown (D), according to The Down Ballot political blog, quickly refuted a Politico story in which the writer said Brown had ruled out running for Senate next year. 

Mr. Brown, who served three terms in the Senate before losing to now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) in November, says he has not made any decisions about running for an office in 2026, and rules nothing out. Down Ballot also reports that Mr. Brown is saying privately, however, that he is more likely to run for Governor if he decides to again seek public office.

South Dakota:  The Republican gubernatorial primary is already becoming a crowded affair. This week, businessman Toby Doeden (R) announced his candidacy joining state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) as official candidates. 

Gov. Larry Rhoden (R), who ascended to the state’s top position when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary, is now expected to run for a full term. US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is also predicted to join the race, as is Attorney General Marty Jackley, likely if Gov. Rhoden chooses not to run. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite in the general election.