Committees in the House marked up their portions of the reconciliation bill

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  Last week, several committees in the House marked up their portions of the reconciliation bill, marking another step in the process toward completion of President Trump’s signature legislative effort. Key committees Agriculture, Energy & Commerce, and Ways & Means have yet to mark up their titles, with all three pushing their planned markups to next week. These three committees comprise the most significant budget items, with controversies over SNAP, Medicaid, and tax cuts, so discussions are frequent and ongoing in these cases.

Financial Services and Banking Updates

Financial Services and Agriculture Jointly Review Digital Assets: Subcommittees in the two Committees with jurisdiction over digital assets are holding a joint hearing on Tuesday to review the digital asset regulatory infrastructure, including the respective roles of both the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. It is possible that we will see text released for a market structure bill that has been in the works for quite some time. 

Stablecoin Legislation Hits Snag Ahead of Senate Floor: The Senate Banking Committee’s bipartisan stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, which was projected to initiate Senate floor proceedings as early as this week, has now hit a roadblock as a group of 9 moderate Democrats released a letter saying they are unable to vote for cloture on the bill in its current form. Senator Thune is still expected to bring the bill up, although its future is less certain now than it was last week.  The group of Democratic Senators, which includes 4 who voted for the bill in Committee, say their attempts to raise issues with the text have gone unheard. The list of 9 senators includes: Raphael Warnock (GA), Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Ben Ray Lujan (NM), John Hickenlooper (CO), Adam Schiff (CA), Mark Warner (VA), Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE), Ruben Gallego (AZ), and Andy Kim (NJ). 

Bessent to Testify in Annual Review of International Finance: On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will appear before the full Financial Services Committee to provide a report on the state of the international financial system. A number of sanctions-related bills are attached to the hearing for consideration, and we expect members to focus heavily on tariffs as well.

Senate Banking to vote on Noms, but Confirmations are Slow: This week, the Senate Banking Committee will vote on a series of nominations to serve in positions at HUD, Commerce, and, most significantly, Michelle Bowman’s nomination to be Fed Vice Chair for Supervision. However, confirmation votes before the full Senate have slowed, as Democrats have placed holds on nominees over disagreements with Trump administration policies.  For example, Jonathan McKernan’s nomination to serve as CFPB Director was originally projected to be taken up this month, but now looks very unlikely. Further, Banking Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) in an interview last week noted that he does not expect to receive any names for Democratic nominees to fill bipartisan boards like the FDIC or the SEC, saying the Senate is struggling to process existing nominees as it is.

Congressional Updates

More on Reconciliation: Updates on the reconciliation bill are changing on a near-hourly basis, but as it stands, there are a few major hurdles within the Republican conference that must be ironed out before the final product can come together. In the Energy and Commerce Committee, the treatment of Medicaid is the primary issue. Cuts to the program are necessary to reduce the overall price tag of the bill and support the extension of tax cuts. However, moderate Republicans are concerned how this will play politically in their districts. In the Agriculture Committee, the SNAP food assistance program follows largely the same debate. And in the Ways and Means Committee, the group of Republicans from SALT states want to increase the $10k cap on the state and local tax deduction, which became a political lightning rod following the 2017 tax cuts. However, hardline conservatives and Republicans not in states that would benefit from that change view it as an unfair federal subsidy given to these states. Adding to the complexity is that the Ways and Means Committee will likely wait until after the other two Committees reach agreements to ensure that they can react to any changes in topline numbers. Meetings among members in all these committees are ongoing this week in an effort to reach a deal that can hit the floor before the Memorial Day recess.

Weekly Political Update from Jim Ellis

Senate

Illinois: Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and US Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) each announced their support for Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s (D) open Senate campaign.  With Sen. Dick Durbin (D) retiring, we expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form irrespective of Pritzker and Duckworth making an early endorsement. 

Those believed to be interested in running include a trio of US Representatives, Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), and potentially state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. 

Several weeks ago, Attorney General Kwame Raoul (D) made a public statement saying he would not run for the Senate even if Mr. Durbin decided to retire.  US Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) is reportedly considering a run for the Republican nomination.

Minnesota:  US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) announced that she will enter Minnesota’s open US Senate race next year.  The Congresswoman will at least face Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen in next year’s Democratic primary. 

Ms. Flanagan is off to a strong start, but a Flanagan-Craig-Franzen race will be hotly contested and will likely go beyond the party endorsing convention to the August primary. 

One person will not be running even after expressing public interest in doing so.  Dave Wellstone, the son of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D), instead declared his support for Rep. Craig after her candidacy declaration.  With Sen. Tina Smith (D) retiring, this will be a race to watch. 

Ohio:  Former Congressman Tim Ryan (D), who lost to J.D. Vance in the 2022 Ohio US Senate race, said he will not challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R).  He did not, however, rule out a bid for Governor so long as Lt. Gov. Jim Tressel (R), his former football coach, does not run. 

Texas:  The Houston Chronicle is running a story about a new poll that Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale released to an HC reporter about the upcoming Texas Senate Republican primary.  Though the methodology is not fully described, the ballot test is somewhat consistent with other polling at least to the point that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

The ballot test posts Paxton to a major 50-33% advantage over Sen. Cornyn.  In the rather unlikely event that President Trump would endorse the incumbent, the Paxton lead would shrink to 44-38%.  US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), who appears to be readying a formal Senate announcement, was again not included in the poll.

House

MI-13:  The Democratic primary race against two-term incumbent Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) is already getting hot.  This week state Rep. Donavan McKinney (D-Detroit) announced his congressional candidacy joining the battle to deny Mr. Thanedar renomination for a third term.  

In the race is former state Senator Adam Hollier (D) who lost to Thanedar 28-23% in a crowded open seat 2022 Democratic primary.  Mr. Hollier declared his candidacy in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting an insufficient number of qualified petition signatures.

Certainly, this will be a competitive race, but the more candidates entering the contest, the easier it will be for Thanedar to win a plurality victory.  Winning the Democratic nomination in the 13th District is tantamount to clinching the general election.

MN-2:  With Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) vacating the 2nd District for a US Senate run, a host of candidates are already coming forward to express interest in running for the open congressional seat. 

Three Democrats appear as sure candidates.  State Sen. Matt Klein (D-Mendota Heights), former state Senator Matt Little, and businessman Mike Norton have all indicated they will soon join the developing candidate field.  For the Republicans, two-time GOP nominee Tyler Kistner indicates that he will return for a third attempt to win the seat.  Joe Teirab, who was the party’s 2024 nominee, has also made statements suggesting that he is considering making a political comeback. 

This will be a competitive election, but the Democrats will begin with at least a slight edge.  Kamala Harris carried this seat last November with a 52-46% margin over President Trump.  Rep. Craig defeated Mr. Teirab with 56% of the vote in her down ballot congressional race.

VA-11:  Nine-term US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax), who announced through written statement that he will not seek re-election in 2026 due to a recurrence of cancer, leaves an open seat that will be decided in Democratic primary. 

Mr. Connolly also said he will soon resign his position as the Ranking Minority Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.  He intends to serve the balance of his final congressional term, however.  We can expect a crowded northern Virginia Democratic primary to form for the regular June 2026 nominating election.

Governor

Michigan:  A new National Research poll (4/8-10; 500 MI likely Republican primary voters)  projects US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) to a 35-29% Republican primary lead over 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon.  Rep. James is an announced gubernatorial candidate, while Ms. Dixon has so far been non-committal about what might be her near future political plans.  No other candidate even reached the 12% support plateau.

The Michigan Governor’s race will be unique among the 38 gubernatorial contests scheduled for the 2025-26 election cycle.  While both major parties will of course nominate candidates, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is also in the race as an Independent candidate.  His presence and name ID from the state’s largest metropolitan area suggests that he has the capacity to draw a large number of votes and make the general election a legitimate three-way race.

Minnesota:  Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, is publicly indicating that he will seek a third term next year.  Though Minnesota has no term limit law pertaining to the Governor’s office, none of the 40 Governors before Mr. Walz served more than two full terms.  Republicans are expected to field a credible candidate to make a serious run for the position.

New Jersey:  Several new polls were released again showing US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading the crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary but she commands less than 20% support.  The Global Strategy Group actually surveyed for two of the candidates, Ms. Sherill, and her congressional colleague, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff).  Rutgers University conducted the other April statewide poll.

All of the ballot test results find Rep. Sherrill leading but only one survey, her own internal poll, finds her breaking the 20% mark.  The other candidates, all within single digits of the lead in most polling are Rep. Gottheimer, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.  Close behind is New Jersey Education Association president and former Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller, while former state Senate President Steve Sweeney lags well back. 

The winner of the June 10th plurality primary will then face the likely Republican primary winner, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, in the 2025 general election. 

New York:  A recent Grayhouse polling firm survey of New York voters (4/22-24; 826 NY registered voters; 400 oversample of Republican primary voters; live interview & text) finds US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) by a 44-7% count for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.  Both Representatives say they are considering the Governor’s race but neither has announced any definitive plans. 

In a preliminary test of a Stefanik direct challenge to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), the Grayhouse survey finds the incumbent leading the Congresswoman 46-40%.  Against Rep. Lawler, the Governor’s advantage would be 45-38%. 

South Dakota:  Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released a new survey of what could become a Republican gubernatorial primary (4/9-11; 500 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and found a very tight potential race. 

Gov. Larry Rhoden (R), who ascended to his position from the Lt. Governor’s slot when then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to become the national Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will seek a full term as Governor next year.  At-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is a potential candidate as is Attorney General Marty Jackley (R). 

According to the early Mason-Dixon poll, Rep. Johnson would lead Gov. Rhoden and AG Jackley by a slight 28-27-18% count.  The South Dakota race will become yet another interesting gubernatorial primary campaign.

State and Local

Pittsburgh:  Several polls have been released showing Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor (D) substantially leading Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey (D).  New data, however, coming from the Gainey camp finds a very different result.  According to an Upswing Poll (week of 4/21; 402 Pittsburgh likely voters; live interview and text), Mayor Gainey has overtaken Mr. O’Connor and leads his battle for re-election with a 49-42% margin. 

In response, the O’Connor campaign spokesman indicated the race has closed, as they expected, but the Mayor is still trailing by four points according to their campaign internal data.