One week since the Trump inauguration
The Golden Apple: January 27, 2025
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. It has been one week since the Trump inauguration, and the White House has been busy with executive orders, including a sweeping order to end diversity programs federal agencies, freeze federal hiring, and withdrawal from the World Health Organization and Paris Climate Agreement. The House is out this week for their first recess period of the year, while the Senate remains in session to continue churning out nomination votes. Reconciliation talks continue to progress, though details and timelines remain in flux.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
HUD, Treasury Nominations Move Forward: Last week, Senate Banking advanced Eric Scott Turner’s nomination for HUD Secretary along a party-line 13-11 vote. Similarly, Scott Bessent earned Finance Committee approval with a 16-11 vote, pulling Democrats Mark Warner (VA) and Maggie Hassan (NH) alongside Committee Republicans. The full Senate is expected to approve Bessent’s nomination later this evening.
Travis Hill Takes on Acting FDIC Role: With the turnover of the new administration, FDIC Commissioner Travis Hill is now the agency’s acting Chairman until a permanent nominee can be approved. Hill has resolved to conduct a wholesale review of the agency’s regulations, and withdraw proposals he views as problematic from the past three years.
Financial Services and Banking Dems Organize: While Republicans have had their subcommittee chairs sorted for a few weeks, the Democrats kept to their usual timeline of organizing closer to the end of January. For ease and convenience, we will list the subcommittee’s chairs and ranking members below:
Financial Services Committee:
Subcommittee on Capital Markets:
Chair: Rep. Anne Wagner (MO)
Ranking Member: Rep. Brad Sherman (CA)
Subcommittee on Financial Institutions:
Chair: Rep. Andy Barr (KY)
Ranking Member: Rep. Bill Foster (IL)
Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Artificial Intelligence:
Chair: Rep. Bryan Steil (WI)
Ranking Member: Rep. Stephen Lynch (MA)
Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions:
Chair: Rep. Warren Davidson (OH)
Ranking Member: Rep. Joyce Beatty (OH)
Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations:
Chair: Rep. Dan Meuser (PA)
Ranking Member: Rep. Al Green (TX)
Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance:
Chair: Rep. Mike Flood (ND)
Ranking Member: Rep. Juan Vargas (CA)
Senate Banking Committee:
National Security Subcommittee:
Chair: Sen. Bill Hagerty (TN)
Ranking Member: Sen. Andy Kim (NJ)
Housing and Transportation:
Chair: Sen. Katie Britt (AL)
Ranking Member: Sen. Tina Smith (MN)
Financial Institutions and Consumer Protection:
Chair: Sen. Thom Tillis (NC)
Ranking Member: Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (NV)
Securities, Insurance, and Investment:
Chair: Sen. Mike Rounds (SD)
Ranking Member: Sen. Mark Warner (VA)
Economic Policy:
Chair: Sen. John Kennedy (LA)
Ranking Member: Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock (GA)
Digital Assets:
Chair: Rep. Cynthia Lummis (WY)
Ranking Member: Ruben Gallego
Congressional Updates
House GOP Leaders Meet in Miami: While the Senate remains in session, House Republican leaders are en route to Florida today, where they will hold their annual policy retreat to plan implementation of President Trump’s ambitious agenda. The primary focus will be budget reconciliation, where Speaker Johnson must a number of competing priorities on a razor-thin margin. Democrats will hold their annual retreat in March.
Nominations Tracker: The first four of President Trump’s political appointees were confirmed last week: Marco Rubio for Secretary of State, John Ratcliffe at the CIA, Kristi Noem at the Department of Homeland Security, and Pete Hegseth for Secretary of Defense. Hegseth was only narrowly confirmed on and required Vice President J.D. Vance to cast the tie-breaking vote, as three Republicans broke with the President and opposed the nomination (Sens. Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Mitch McConnell).
Administration Updates
Trump Freezes Agency Rulemakings: In addition to the Executive Orders listed above, President Trump issued a January 20th order freezing all agency rulemakings pending a regulatory review. Only when a Trump-appointed department or agency head reviews and signs off a pending regulation can it proceed. The application to “all agencies” would seem to include independent agencies like FDIC and CFPB.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
PRESIDENT
President Trump: The Inauguration of President Donald J. Trump occurred as scheduled at 12:01 pm on January 20th. Mr. Trump became the 47th President of the United States, and the second man in history to lose re-election only to return four years later to recapture the office. In 1892, President Grover Cleveland, who was the 22nd President but defeated for re-election in 1888, returned to the office and became the 24th President. Mr. Trump will be ineligible to run in 2028, thus paving the way for open nomination fights in both parties.
SENATE
Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio as one of Florida’s two United States Senators. She took the Oath of Office on January 21st, soon after Mr. Rubio was confirmed to his national position and resigned from the Senate.
Sen. Moody must now run to fill the balance of the term in the 2026 election and will again be on the ballot in 2028 when her Class III Senate seat again comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.
Massachusetts: Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) is not closing the door on challenging Sen. Ed Markey for the Democratic Senate nomination next year. Sen. Markey, who will be 80 years of age at the time of the next election, has already said he will seek re-election to a third full term in 2026.
Mr. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and is the second longest serving current member of Congress behind only Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) who has been an elected member of Congress since 1975.
Rep. Auchincloss, should he run for the Senate, would likely do so from a more moderate perch than Sen. Markey, who is one of the Senate’s most liberal members. Age would be a major factor in the campaign, as well. Mr. Auchincloss is 36 years old and was first elected to the House in 2020.
Ohio: Governor Mike DeWine (R) selected Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) to replace Vice President J.D. Vance (R) as one of Ohio’s US Senators. Like new Senator Ashley Moody (R-FL) who replaced Marco Rubio, Sen. Husted took the Oath of Office on January 21st. Sen. Husted also must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year term since this seat, too, is in the Third Class of Senate cycles.
HOUSE
FL-7: Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who days ago said that he will challenge whomever Gov. Ron DeSantis chose for the US Senate position to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is slightly changing his tune. While maintaining that challenging new Sen. Ashley Moody in the 2026 Republican primary is still a possibility, he now says that he will conduct more research and better test the political waters before making a final decision.
GA-13: State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) this week announced that he will enter the 13th District Democratic congressional primary in 2026. Current incumbent David Scott (D-Atlanta), who was first elected in 2002, has been experiencing health issues to the point of the Democratic Steering Committee removing him as Ranking Member of the House Agriculture Committee late last year. Mr. Scott’s staff indicates the Congressman is planning to seek re-election, and Sen. Jones says he will run irrespective of the incumbent being in the race.
Sen. Jones was first elected to the Senate in 2004 and has won ten succeeding elections. Georgia is one of the states where its Senators serve two-year terms. At this point and regardless of public comments, Rep. Scott is one of the members viewed as most likely to retire. Therefore, the 13th District running as an open seat in 2026 remains a possibility.
OK-1: Though Rep. Kevin Hern’s (R-Tulsa) northern Oklahoma congressional district is safely Republican, Tulsa School Board Member John Croisant (D), this week announced that he will mount a challenge for the seat in 2026. Rep. Hern was viewed as a potential candidate in the open Governor’s race next year but has already announced his plans to remain in the House because ‘the small GOP majority makes every seat extremely important.’
Regardless of who his ’26 Democratic opponent happens to be, Rep. Hern will again be favored to win a strong victory. In 2024, his re-election percentage was 60.4%. In his four US House elections, Mr. Hern has averaged 61.1% of the vote.
GOVERNOR
Arizona: Five-term Arizona US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) confirmed this week that he has interest in running for Governor next year ostensibly to oppose incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) who is presumed to be preparing a run for a second term. Mr. Biggs, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, says he “knows what Arizona needs.”
Gov. Hobbs generally has low job approval ratings and President Trump’s victory margin of just under six percentage points suggests that the Republicans are rebounding in the state, which was once one of the most Republican domains in the country. Expect the 2026 Governor’s race here to become highly competitive.
Colorado: State Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) announced that he will enter the open race for Governor next year. Mr. Bottoms is one of the more conservative members of the Centennial State House, so it is likely he will have a difficult time winning statewide as the Colorado electorate continues to move decidedly leftward.
Mr. Bottoms becomes the first Republican to enter the 2026 race. Attorney General Phil Weiser announced his intention to compete for the Democratic gubernatorial election earlier in the month. Crowded fields are expected to emerge in both parties. Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Michigan: Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), who is commonly regarded as one of Michigan’s most liberal politicians and chiefly responsible for passing election law changes that many claim make the state’s ballot security the most lax in the country, announced that she will enter the open race to replace term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) next year.
A crowded field of candidates is expected to develop in both parties. Republican chances may be better than what would typically be viewed in this Democratic leaning state because three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, previously a Democrat, announced his candidacy late last year as an Independent.
Mr. Duggan taking away Democratic votes on his Independent ballot line could be a significant factor, and he could potentially garner enough support to allow a Republican the opportunity of winning the statewide race with only plurality support. The Michigan race promises to be one of the most watched gubernatorial campaigns in the 2026 election cycle.
New Jersey: Emerson College went into the field to test the New Jersey electorate regarding the 2025 Governor’s race to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D). Emerson conducted surveys for each political party nomination (1/18-21; 437 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; 334 NJ likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) for a primary election scheduled on June 10, 2025.
Though the sample sizes are small, the data allows us to derive two key conclusions. On the Republican side, 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee and former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli holds a 26-13% advantage over radio talk show host Bill Spadea, with all other candidates failing to reach 10%. Though the support factors are low, Mr. Ciattarelli has a 2:1 advantage over Mr. Spadea is a point of good news for his candidacy.
The Democratic side is a free-for-all. While Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leads the pack, she only polls 10% with four of the five other candidates, including Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), all within the polling margin of error. The early signs suggest a very tight race to unfold, particularly within the Democratic primary.
Ohio: The Ohio Governor’s race is already shaping up as a significant 2026 open campaign. Two major candidates have already announced: Attorney General Dave Yost (R) declared late last year, while State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) made public his intention to run for Governor just this week.
Former Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) has already resigned his position as the co-chairman of President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) advisory committee and is expected to imminently announce his own gubernatorial campaign.
On the Democratic side, former Ohio Health Department Director Amy Acton is the first to announce her candidacy. She led the state’s Covid shutdown efforts, which will certainly become a point of focus in the coming campaign.
Tennessee: A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Marsha Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be a budding campaign for Governor. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (1/13-16; 800 TN likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13% margin.
The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Trump would endorse Ms. Blackburn. The spread then becomes 78-11%. Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.
No one has officially announced their candidacies, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to do so until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals that she is interested in running for Governor. With polling data such as this, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.
Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the Governorship, she would be able to appoint her own successor to the Senate.
STATE AND LOCAL
Boston: The fledgling Boston mayoral campaign of Josh Kraft (D) continues to move forward, and it appears he will soon announce his challenge to incumbent Mayor Michelle Wu (D). Mr. Kraft is the son of Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots National Football League club.
Josh Kraft is the president of the Kraft Family Philanthropies and the board chairman of the National Urban League’s Eastern Massachusetts chapter. It is clear that Mr. Kraft will have plenty of money to compete in the citywide race. Whether he can unseat Mayor Wu is an early point of contention, but he will be capable of running a competitive campaign.
New York City: A second recent poll again posts former Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) well ahead in the 2025 New York City mayor’s race. The Bold Decision Democratic firm conducted a poll of likely NYC voters (1/7-13; 807 NYC likely voters; live interview & text) and sees Mr. Cuomo leading Mayor Eric Adams by a 33-10% count. None of the other seven tested candidates could even reach double digits.
Carrying through the hypothetical Ranked Choice Voting rounds, Cuomo would win in the end with a 51-16% margin among the decided respondents. Mr. Cuomo has yet to announce that he would make a comeback attempt, but continued polling such as this will certainly be an encouraging factor in him making the decision to move forward.