Finalizing of most committee rosters
The Golden Apple: January 13, 2025
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. Last week saw the certification of the 2024 election results and the finalizing of most Committee rosters. Operations in Washington also paused last week for the ceremonies honoring the late President Jimmy Carter, who, at 100 years of age, was the oldest of all U.S. presidents. The Plains, Georgia peanut farmer was known as a humanitarian, and an extremely decent person.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
Financial Services Subcommittee Chairs: The House Financial Services Republicans sorted out their committee roster last week, with the installment of the new subcommittee chairs. There has been a necessary shakeup of the subcommittees with the ascension of new full committee Chairman French (AR), and the departure of Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO). The Subcommittee Chairs are as follows:
Subcommittee on Capital Markets: Rep. Anne Wagner (MO)
Subcommittee on Financial Institutions: Rep. Andy Barr (KY)
Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Artificial Intelligence: Rep. Bryan Steil (WI)
Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions: Rep. Warren Davidson (OH)
Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations: Rep. Dan Meuser (PA)
Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance: Rep. Mike Flood (ND)
Senate Banking Committee Chairs: On the other side of the Capitol, the Senate Banking Committee is organizing its subcommittees as well. Subcommittee Chairs are as follows:
National Security Subcommittee: Sen. Bill Hagerty (TN)
Housing and Transportation: Sen. Katie Britt (AL)
Financial Institutions: Sen. Thom Tillis (NC)
Securities and Insurance: Sen. Mike Rounds (SD)
Economic Policy: Sen. John Kennedy (LA)
Digital Assets: Rep. Cynthia Lummis (WY)
Speaking of: Senate Banking Creates Crypto Subcommittee: Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (SC) will launch a new, crypto-focused subcommittee, seen as a commitment to prioritize the focus on digital assets and crypto-friendly legislation. The Senate will join the House in dedicating a subcommittee to this subject matter, as Chairman Patrick McHenry established the inaugural digital assets subcommittee last Congress. The new subcommittee’s chair, Sen. Cynthia Lummis (WY) is a pro-crypto legislator who has been at the forefront of digital asset legislation in previous congresses.
Administration Updates
FHFA Director Thompson to Step Down: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Sandra Thompson announced Thursday her plans to step down from her role effective January 19, 2025. Thompson has been quiet about her plans, which led to some speculation that she would continue to lead the agency until fired by President-elect Trump. Thompson’s departure also precedes the new administration’s potential shakeup of the GSE; the ending of their federal conservatorship has long been policy goal of Trump allies.
Nomination Hearings in the Senate This Week: It is a busy week in the Senate as they begin considering President-elect Trump nominations. Here is what’s on tap for this week:
Tuesday, January 14th
Doug Collins for VA, Veteran Affairs, 9 am
Pete Hegseth for Defense, Armed Services, 9:30 am
Doug Burgum for Interior, Energy and Natural Resources, 10 m
Wednesday, January 15th
Kristi Noem for Homeland, Homeland Security, 9 am
Pam Bondi for AG, Judiciary, 9:30 am
Marco Rubio for State, Foreign Relations, 10 am
John Radcliffe for CIA , Intelligence, 10 am
Sean Duffy for Transportation, Commerce, 10 am
Chris Wright for Energy, Energy and Natural Resources, 10 am
Russel Vought for OMB, Homeland Security, 1 pm
Thursday, January 16th
Eric Turner for HUD, Banking, 10 am
Lee Zeldin for EPA, Environment and Public Works, 10 am
Pam Bondi for AG, Judiciary, 10:15 am
Scott Bessent for Treasury, Finance, 10:30 am
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
SENATE
Louisiana: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) stands for re-election in 2026 but must face a partisan Republican primary and potentially a runoff due to a change in the state’s election laws. Gone is the top two jungle primary system for federal races and certain other offices. State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) has already announced his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy.
For the Democrats, former Gov. John Bel Edwards is a potential candidate. Should Mr. Edwards run, Sen. Cassidy would face a tough renomination fight and probably without an endorsement from President Trump; then, a difficult general election would follow against a Democrat who was twice elected as the state’s Governor.
Massachusetts: Close associates of ex-Gov. Charlie Baker (R), now the President of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), are throwing cold water on the idea that Mr. Baker may challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) in the 2026 election. Chances are very strong that Sen. Markey, in Congress since 1976 and already an announced candidate for re-election, can be expected to face little in the way of credible opposition. He will easily be re-elected to a third full US Senate term.
New Hampshire: While former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire and challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in 2020 but lost 57-41%, says he is considering making a return appearance in 2026. Meanwhile, outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said this week that he will not challenge Shaheen next year. For her part, the Senator says she will make a decision about seeking a fourth term later this year.
North Carolina: Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who would be the national Democrats’ first choice to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R), said this week that he will make a decision about running “in the next few months.” Mr. Cooper is also apparently testing the waters for a presidential run in the open 2028 election. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map, has already declared his intention to challenge Sen. Tillis.
Texas: A new Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate (1/4-6; number of respondents not released; interactive voice response system and text) finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. It has long been rumored that Mr. Paxton is going to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Cornyn, a move that the former man does not deny.
According to the ballot test, Mr. Paxton would lead the Senator, 42-34%, which is a very low support performance for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23% among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24% from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives.
Sen. Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15% spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18% within the self-described moderate Republican segment. Clearly, this early data suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of coming national political attention.
DSCC: New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has officially been chosen to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 election cycle. She replaces Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) who cannot succeed himself since he is in-cycle for the coming campaign. Sen. Gillibrand will be tasked with quarterbacking the Democrats’ efforts to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.
While the map forces the Republicans to risk what will be 22 seats in the 35 Senate races that includes two special elections, the odds of Democrats re-electing all 13 of their in-cycle Senators and converting four GOP seats to reach a 51-seat Democratic majority appear long.
HOUSE
PA-8: Former Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), who just lost his Scranton anchored congressional seat to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township), indicated that he is considering returning in 2026 to seek a re-match. Mr. Bresnahan unseated then-Rep. Cartwright with a 50.8 – 49.2% majority, a margin of 4,062 votes of 403,314 cast ballots. Mr. Cartwright said he will make a decision about running in the next few months.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8, so the Bresnahan victory was not a huge upset considering the region’s voter history and that Mr. Cartwright’s last two election victories in 2020 and 2022 were close.
WA-4: Ex-congressional candidate Jerrod Sessler (R) says he will return to challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) for a third time in 2026. Despite placing first in the 2024 jungle primary, Mr. Sessler lost to the Congressman by a 52-46% margin even with Donald Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the second Trump impeachment.
In 2022, Mr. Sessler failed to qualify for the general election, placing fourth in a field of eight candidates with 12.3% of the vote. Beginning an early 2026 campaign, Congressman Newhouse will again be favored to win re-election.
GOVERNOR
Colorado: In what is expected to be a hotly contested open Democratic primary for Governor, Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) is the first to officially declare his candidacy. Other potential Democratic candidates include former US Senator, Interior Secretary, and US Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar, and US Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) and Jason Crow (D-Aurora).
Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will hold a strong advantage beginning the general election.
Kansas: Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is ineligible to run for re-election, which ignites competitive primary elections in both parties. Jumping out first is Republican Secretary of State Scott Schwab who this week declared his gubernatorial candidacy. Another GOP possibility is Attorney General Kris Kobach. US Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Independence/Topeka), who was the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee and now just elected to Congress, is unlikely to run statewide in 2026.
For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. David Toland and US Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) are potential candidates who would make the general election competitive in a state that typically elects Republicans.
Michigan: Former Attorney General Mike Cox (R), who was expected to run the last time the Michigan gubernatorial position was open in 2018 but then chose not to pursue a campaign, appears ready to become a candidate in 2026. This week, Mr. Cox officially formed a gubernatorial fundraising committee to test the waters for a statewide bid. Gov. Gretchen Whitmire (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Very competitive nomination battles in both parties are expected to unfold.
New Jersey: In a 2025 gubernatorial campaign that is already featuring a very competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), a new election date has been scheduled. Due to a conflict with a Jewish holiday, Gov. Murphy announced he was moving the state primary from June 3, 2025, to June 10th.
Already in the Democratic race are two US Representatives, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and three Mayors, Sean Spiller (Montclair), Ras Baraka (Newark), and Steve Fulop (Jersey City), along with former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield), and radio talk show host Bill Spadea are the major candidates.
Ohio: This week, Dr. Amy Acton (D), who became a regular media figure in 2020 as Ohio’s Covid chief, announced that she will run to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Competitive primaries are expected in both parties with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the favorite for the general election considering Ohio’s recent voting history.
Gov. DeWine’s choice to replace Sen. J.D. Vance (R) when he resigns to become Vice President could affect the Republican gubernatorial lineup. Expect a great deal of action in the Governor’s race once the Senate pick is announced.
Virginia: An Emerson College poll (conducted for The Hill newspaper; 1/6-8; 1,000 VA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a tight 2025 open race for Governor. According to the Emerson ballot test, former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) would lead Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) by only a single percentage point, 42-41%.
The Virginia race is one of only two gubernatorial elections slated for 2025 with New Jersey hosting the other. Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is ineligible to seek a second term. Virginia is the only state in the country to limit its state chief executives to a single four-year term.
STATE AND LOCAL
Oakland: Because Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled in the November 5th election, a special vote to fill the balance of the term will be held on April 15th. Former US Rep. Barbara Lee (D), who risked her seat of 13 terms to unsuccessfully run for US Senate, has filed a preliminary campaign committee to enter the Mayor’s campaign. The candidate filing deadline is January 17th.
Under the Ranked Choice Voting system, this race could become interesting as a very crowded field is expected to form. Ms. Lee is likely the leading candidate because of her name identification and long service in Congress.
Virginia: Unsurprisingly, two Democrats, one running for the state Senate and the other to the House of Delegates, and a single Republican state Senate candidate won special elections to fill vacancies in the state legislature. All three seats have heavily partisan voting histories.
The outcome allows the Democrats to hold their small majorities in legislature: 21-19 in the state Senate and 51-49 in the state House of Delegates.