President Trump announced tariffs against Canada and Mexico
The Golden Apple: February 3, 2025
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. President Trump announced tariffs against Canada and Mexico (25%) and China (10%) over the weekend, triggering a tumble in the stock market and a range of strong reactions from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Democrats were quick to contrast the tariffs with Trump’s claim that he would lower grocery prices. Some Republicans were cautiously critical, while others voiced robust support for the policies. Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs on over $100 billion of U.S. goods, seemingly targeted at conservative states (the list included Kentucky bourbon, Florida orange juice, and South Carolina-made appliances). The tariffs were scheduled to take effect tomorrow, though President Trump has already announced a one-month pause on Mexican tariffs amid negotiations, and is scheduled to have further talks with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau. We can expect that news of the trade war will continue to dominate this week, but there will be plenty of activity coming from the Hill and the agencies as well.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
Chopra is Out, Bessent Is Acting: The White House removed CFPB Director Rohit Chopra from his post Saturday evening, and this morning announced that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would serve as interim director of the agency. Many in DC had expected Chopra to be fired immediately upon the turnover of the administration, and so were surprised when he remained in his office for nearly two weeks following inauguration. Chopra’s CFPB took on “junk fees”, medical debt, and buy now pay later programs as just a few priority items.
Debanking Returns to the Spotlight: Trump administration leaders have vocally decried what they see as politically motivated “debanking” of companies involved in cryptocurrency or blockchain technology and aligned with conservative causes. Hearings in Senate Banking and House Financial Services this week will examine the issue, and the House Oversight Committee will launch an investigation on the same topic. Some suggest politics may not be the root cause, however—Jamie Dimon, for one, has pointed to regulations that require banks to guard against money laundering and tax avoidance, as muddying the extent to which banks can engage with crypto companies today.
Financial Services Reviews Community Banking: Chairman French Hill (R-AR), a former banker himself, will hold a hearing this week examining the current challenges to community banking and reviewing a slate of legislative proposals designed to encourage de novo bank charters and ease regulations on small institutions. Notably, the hearing also includes an as-yet unsponsored discussion draft of a resolution disapproving the CFPB’s overdraft rule.
Congressional Updates
Reconciliation Blueprint Behind Schedule: The Budget Committee is widely expected to delay a markup on a budget resolution this week, which would delay Speaker Johnson’s ambitious reconciliation schedule. The Speaker initially wanted the House to pass the budget resolution next week, following committee approval. GOP lawmakers remain far apart on the specifics of the blueprint as far as what and how much will be cut. We have previously acknowledged the ambitious timeline for reconciliation and these internal disagreements are expected given the narrow margin House Republicans hold over Democrats. For his part, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is making preparations for two reconciliation bills, in the event that the House is unsuccessful in packaging all priorities into one.
Administration Updates
Confirmations Continue into February: Last week saw several more of President Trump’s nominees confirmed, including former Rep. Lee Zeldin to lead the EPA, Doug Burgum to lead Interior and John Ratcliffe to lead the CIA. Three high-profile nominees also underwent contentious confirmation hearings last week: Tulsi Gabbard to be Director of National Intelligence, RFK Jr., to lead the FDA, and Kash Patel to oversee the FBI. Of the three, it appears that Gabbard is the nominee most on shaky footing, and she will face an internal Senate Intelligence Committee vote tomorrow before full Senate consideration.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
SENATE
Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) announced this week that he will not stand for re-election in 2026. The Michigan seat becomes the first Senate position to open in the new election cycle. Considering the closeness of the 2024 Senate contest where Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) nipped former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) by a three-tenths of a percentage point, we can expect another tough impending campaign in what will be the state’s second consecutive open Senate election.
Michigan will be a very active political state in 2026 with now an open Senate race to complement the open gubernatorial campaign. Expect heavy competition in both party primaries for each race along with hard fought general election battles. For her part, the state’s term limited Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D), who is clearly planning a national run for President in 2028, says she will not run for Michigan’s newly open US Senate seat.
Potential Democratic Senate candidates might include former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and state Attorney General Dana Nessel. Republican potential candidates include former US Rep. Mike Rogers who came within three-tenths of one percentage point of winning the state’s other Senate seat in November. Should he announce early, Mr. Rogers would likely be able to quickly close out the nomination.
Rumors were floating late this week suggesting that former NFL head coach and NBC Sports analyst Tony Dungy (R) and US Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) were both considering becoming Senate candidates. Both have subsequently dispelled such speculation.
Mississippi: Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2% of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026.
Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44% vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.
Virginia: A recent 2026 political survey projects Sen. Mark Warner (D) posting a seven point lead over Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in a hypothetical Senate race poll, but methodological flaws are apparent.
The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the survey, but the sampling period consumed almost a month (December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025), and the sampling universe was comprised of 806 adults over the age of 18. The sampling period’s length reduces the accuracy figure and not segmenting the ample respondent universe into registered and/or likely voters further skews the data.
The methodology notwithstanding, Sen. Warner would lead Gov. Youngkin 45-38% on the ballot test according to VCU, but the Republican leads among Independents 37-16%. This suggests that Sen. Warner’s support among Democrats is greater than Gov. Youngkin’s backing among Republicans, but these numbers are not supported in other recent similar partisan Virginia surveys mostly for the open 2025 Governor’s race.
DSCC: At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.
HOUSE
CO-8: Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Mr. Evans in the 2024 election.
State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.
FL-1: As predicted, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, armed with endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily defeated nine Republican opponents with 67% of the vote to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R). Mr. Patronis now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the April 1st special general election in what is Florida’s safest Republican congressional seat.
FL-6: Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83% support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Mr. Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.
Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1st special general election.
GA-9: Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.
Mr. Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Mr. Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56% of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74% and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.
MI-10: Former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), who twice lost to Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) in close elections, is looking at launching a third congressional run.
In 2022, Mr. Marlinga lost the open seat campaign by less than a percentage point. In his 2024 re-election run, Rep. James expanded his margin over Marlinga to 51-45%. Mr. Marlinga has not proven to be a robust fundraiser; hence, the Democratic leadership will likely attempt to recruit a stronger candidate for the 2026 election, particularly if Rep. James decides to enter the open Governor’s or Senate race.
GOVERNOR
Connecticut: New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.
New Mexico: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-US Representative Deb Haaland the undisputed front runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Ms. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.
Ohio: A new Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (1/26-27; 600 OH likely 2026 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead. In the race for what will be an open Governor’s position, Mr. Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2% margin, respectively.
An official announcement from Mr. Ramaswamy is reportedly soon forthcoming. Certainly, polling results such as this boost the chances of him entering the race.
Tennessee: Despite polling showing Sen. Marsha Blackburn as a prohibitive favorite in an open gubernatorial Republican primary campaign, US Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) stated this week that he still plans on running for the statewide post. The Congressman says he will soon announce his plans.
The move would be surprising since a recent statewide poll found Sen. Blackburn beating Rep. Rose by almost 30 percentage points, 55-27%, in the Congressman’s own 6th District. Statewide, the Fabrizio Lee research firm’s poll found Sen. Blackburn leading Mr. Rose by a whopping 71-13% spread, which increases to 78% support for the Senator if President Trump endorses her gubernatorial bid.
Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (1/18-20; 867 VA likely 2025 general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle.
According to the co/efficient data, Ms. Spanberger and Ms. Earle-Sears would each command 40% support.