Lawmakers push deadline, avoid government shutdown
Both chambers returned from recess this week and were immediately under pressure to resolve the budget crisis. Despite being five months into the fiscal year, Congress has not passed a 2024 budget and instead relied on a series of short-term continuing resolutions to keep the government funded. On Thursday, the House and Senate voted to extend funding for six departments until March 8, including the Departments of Agriculture, Energy and Water, MilCon-VA, and Transportation-HUD, which were set to expire this weekend. They also approved a plan to extend the deadlines for bills originally set to expire on March 8 to March 22, including contentious legislation over the Department of Defense and Homeland Security. The stopgap funding bill was sent to President Joe Biden’s desk on Thursday night. These CRs are the most concrete plan Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has put forward to get a full budget passed and will give Congress more time to hash out the final appropriations language. It appears the budget may be resolved by the end of the month.
Mitch McConnell stepping down from Senate Leadership
On Wednesday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced his plans to step down from leadership after the election. The 82-year-old McConnell has served as the Republican Party leader since 2007, the longest tenured Senate party leader in U.S. history. McConnell has been a figurehead for the GOP over the last couple decades but has clashed with Donald Trump and faced scrutiny about his health in the last couple months. The three “Johns” - Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-SD), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), and Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) - are the early contenders to assume McConnell’s post, as Sen. Cornyn already announced he is running for the position. Sens. Rick Scott (R-FL), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Marco Rubio (R-FL), and Steve Daines (R-MT) have also been floated as potential candidates. The GOP struggled to settle on a Speaker in the House, and this election will be telling for where the party stands in the Senate. The Republicans are at a pivotal crossroads, and whether their next candidate is more aligned with McConnell or Trump will define the future of the party.
Biden and Trump make border visits, but no clarity on legislation
On Thursday, President Biden made a trip to the border town of Brownsville, Texas, and marked just the second time he traveled to the border in his presidency. At the same time, Donald Trump held an event in Eagle Pass, Texas, which became a focal point of the border crisis after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott mobilized the National Guard in the area. Both candidates made appearances to campaign on border security, which is emerging as one of the biggest topics of the 2024 election. Back on the Hill, though, it is unclear if any legislation to quell the crisis will come through. There has not been any momentum since the Senate GOP blocked a potential package on February 7, although House Republicans have discussed attaching some language concerning the border to the current foreign aid package they are considering.
The Week’s Takeaways
On Wednesday, Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) and Reps. Neal Dunn (R-FL) and Salud Carbajal (D-CA) introduced the Secure U.S. Leadership in Space Act of 2024. This legislation would designate spaceports as eligible for tax-exempt municipal revenue bonds, following the bond investment structure that exists for airports and seaports. The bill would incentivize investment in spaceport infrastructure and help the U.S. remain competitive with China in future space development.
“In the race for space dominance, we cannot afford to fall behind. As adversaries like China continue to expand their presence in space, it’s imperative the United States takes decisive action to bolster our own capabilities,” Sen. Rubio said in a statement. “The Secure U.S. Leadership in Space Act of 2024 is a critical step towards ensuring our nation maintains its competitive edge.”
The Tax Bill has been on the back burner since it passed the House on January 1, but talks are bubbling back to the surface. The bipartisan Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024, co-sponsored by Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), faced some pushback this week from Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID), who is the ranking member of the finance panel. Sen. Crapo raised concerns about the Child Tax Credit (CTC) policy, which would allow families to use prior year earnings to qualify for the credit. Sen. Wyden has indicated there is some room to negotiate on the bill, but tinkering too much with the CTC could cause Democrats to pull support for the deal. There is still hope for passage, but with tax season on the horizon, time is running out.
On Thursday, the House Financial Services Committee held a markup hearing where they considered 12 different pieces of legislation. Among the bills were the HUD Transparency Act, the Combating Money Laundering in Cyber Crime Act, and H.J. Res. 109, which provides for congressional disapproval of the rule relating to SAB 121. All legislation was reported favorably out of committee.
Preparing for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, March 5
15 states will hold primaries on Super Tuesday next week. While typically a marquee day on the election calendar, this year is unlikely to bear many results of consequence. President Biden and former President Trump are essentially locked in for a rematch, and Tuesday could remove all doubt. However, Nikki Haley has vowed to stay in the race despite losing the primary in her home state of South Carolina last week.
Wednesday, March 6
The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a hearing entitled Implementation of the Recommendations of the Accountability and Transparency Review and Efforts to Ease Coast Guard Manpower Shortages.
Thursday, March 7
President Biden will give his annual State of the Union address at 9:00 pm.
The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
The House Ways and Means Tax Subcommittee will hold a hearing on OECD Pillar 1: Ensuring the Biden Administration Puts Americans First.
The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled Politicized Financial Regulation and its Impact on Consumer Credit and Community Development.
The House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure will hold a hearing entitled Department of Transportation Discretionary Grants: Stakeholder Perspectives.
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
South Carolina: Despite winning a landslide victory in his opponent’s home state primary, some are qualifying former President Donald Trump’s South Carolina result as an underperformance.
As polling predicted, Mr. Trump easily won the Palmetto State Republican primary in defeating former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley by a 59.8 – 39.5% margin. While Mr. Trump carried 43 of the state’s 46 counties, two of the three he did not, Charleston and Beaufort counties, are located in the 1st Congressional District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R). Her formidable margins in these two counties allowed Ms. Haley to carry the 1st District, thus awarding her three of her home state’s 50 pledged delegates. The only other county Ms. Haley carried was Richland, home to the capital city of Columbia, which is South Carolina’s most Democratic area.
In the Republican primary, 750,586 voters cast a ballot for either Mr. Trump or Ms. Haley. Though Mr. Biden posted 96% preference in the February 3rd South Carolina Democratic primary, only 131,307 Democratic primary voters participated. Four years ago, when Mr. Biden won the SC primary against six opponents, over 539,000 people voted in the Democratic primary. In 2020, Mr. Biden won the primary with virtually double the amount of votes (262,336) he received here earlier this month.
Maine: A very surprising general election poll in Maine was released from the Pan Atlantic Research organization in Portland, ME. The poll (2/6-14; 836 ME adults; 791 ME likely voters; online) finds former President Trump topping President Biden in what was previously a state largely unattainable for Republican presidential candidates. The numbers find Mr. Trump leading the President 38-32% with 21% saying they would vote for another candidate. The “other candidates” were not identified, but it is reasonable to assume that most of these New Englanders choosing to support a candidate other than Messrs. Biden or Trump would be headed to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Mr. Trump is carrying the state largely on the back of his 20-point lead in the 2nd Congressional District. He would trail Mr. Biden in the Democratic 1st CD by eight points. Because Maine’s congressional districts carry their own electoral votes, the results suggest Mr. Trump would get three electoral votes from the state and Mr. Biden, one. Of course, these surprising results can easily change but things will have to significantly improve for President Biden before such happens. According to this data, the President’s favorability index in Maine is 38:61% favorable to unfavorable, meaning the campaign’s task of improving his image is a difficult one.
Michigan: As expected, President Biden and former President Donald Trump easily captured large percentages in winning the respective Democratic and Republican Michigan presidential primary elections.
President Biden recorded 81.1% of the Democratic vote, though just under 14% voted for the Uncommitted Delegate Slate. U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Democratic voters to choose that option as a way to protest President Biden’s position regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. For the Republicans, Mr. Trump attracted 68.2% of the GOP vote, again consistent with the result most pollsters predicted. Overall turnout favored Republicans approximately 1.13 million to about 778,000 individuals.
Marianne Williamson: Democrat Marianne Williamson, who suspended her presidential campaign after the Nevada primary, this week returned to active status. As a non-candidate in South Carolina and Michigan, she placed ahead of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN) in both states. Neither, however, have registered even 5% support against President Biden. Ms. Williamson returning to active campaigning will do little to dissuade a Biden renomination. He remains on target to clinch the party nod after the March 19th primaries conclude.
SENATE
California: The latest Emerson College survey before the Super Tuesday vote in the California Senate race (2/24-27; 1,000 CA likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again sees Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) securing the first general election ballot position with retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) holding second. With leaners, the race between Garvey and US Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) becomes even closer as the former’s lead shrinks to the margin of error.
The University of California at Berkeley’s Public Policy Institute of California also released another of their regular Golden State surveys and the ballot test, while again projecting Rep. Schiff capturing first place, found Rep. Porter slipping past Mr. Garvey by a percentage point.
The timing of the release suggests that Porter may be gaining momentum, but a closer examination of the methodology suggests otherwise. Late last week, we reported upon a previous Emerson College California survey (2/16-18; 1,000 CA registered voters; 935 CA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found Schiff leading the group with a 28% preference figure with Garvey at 22%, Porter posting 16%, and U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 9% support. The Cal-Berkeley poll was then released later that showed Porter’s one point edge for the second qualifying position.
Though released on February 23, The Cal-Berkeley poll was actually conducted during the February 6-13 period, thus revealing that the data was derived a week before Emerson’s. Understanding the polling progression suggests that it is the Garvey momentum which appears to be real.
Indiana: The Indiana Election Commission unanimously removed Republican John Rust from the ballot for failure to meet one of the party standards to qualify as a candidate. That is, Mr. Rust could offer no proof that he voted in two consecutive Republican primaries. The Commission’s action means that Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) will enter the open Indiana Republican Senate primary as an unopposed candidate.
Winning the GOP primary will then give Mr. Banks the inside track to claiming the Senate seat outright in the general election. This will become one of the easiest open Senate campaigns that we have seen in recent memory. Sen. Mike Braun (R) is bypassing running for a second term to launch a gubernatorial bid.
Michigan: A regular Michigan pollster, MRG Research, surveyed the state’s Republican electorate and became the first poll in the field since retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) withdrew from the Senate race. The study (2/19-22; 600 MI likely primary voters) finds former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers opening a large 23-7% Republican primary lead over ex-Rep. Peter Meijer.
Another former Congressman, Libertarian Justin Amash, is reportedly considering entering the GOP race but has yet to do so. The Michigan state primary is not scheduled until August 6. The eventual Republican Senate nominee will likely face U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. The Congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.
Texas: After seeing a pair of surveys projecting Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) reaching the 50% mark in his Democratic Senate primary, the University of Texas at Tyler tested the Lone Star State Dem primary race. Their survey (2/18-26; 1,167 TX registered voters; 441 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & online) finds Rep. Allred leading the campaign, but with a much reduced 37% preference figure. State Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) follows with 22% support, while Dallas state Representative and pastor Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) posts 6 percent. There is little question that Allred will finish first, but whether he can avoid a costly runoff election remains unanswered.
Wisconsin: Last week, businessman Eric Hovde (R) announced his U.S. Senate candidacy in the Badger State, and this week, we see the first poll pairing with two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D). Emerson College released their latest Wisconsin survey (2/20-24; 1,000 WI registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), and while the sampling universe would support Donald Trump 44-42%, Democratic incumbent Baldwin would lead the Senate race 46-39%.
Sen. Mitch McConnell: Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement this week that he will step down as Republican Leader after the elections in November could cause some uncertainty in the GOP fundraising ranks. The Senate Leadership Fund, which several of his key supporters run, raised over $289 million for the 2022 election cycle. In the year 2023 just concluded, the Fund attracted over $37 million. It remains to be seen if the national Republicans’ fundraising drops even more now that donors know McConnell’s time as Leader will be officially coming to an end.
HOUSE
MT-2: We are now seeing a retirement reversal trend taking hold. This week, Montana US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), after entering the Senate race for just seven days, will now actively pursue a re-election campaign. With the incumbent returning, it remains to be seen just how many of the nine announced GOP candidates, including former at-large Rep. Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue their candidacies.
Mr. Rosendale becomes the fourth House member to announce that he would not be seeking re-election only to change course and run again. The others are Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX), Victoria Spartz (R-IN), and Mark Green (R-TN). The latter man also made his move back into active campaigning this week. The House open seat count now recedes to 47. Once the three special elections are held, the total number of House open seats will reduce further to 44.
New York: The Democratic super majority in the state Assembly and Senate unveiled a new congressional map that surprised many, but in retrospect the plan is an indication the party leaders knew they would face tough going on a legal challenge if they stretched their partisan interests much further.
As reported earlier, the state’s Citizens Redistricting Commission made only cosmetic changes in the plan the court created for the 2022 election. The members left the court footprint largely intact, which the legislature then rejected. When the people adopted a citizens’ redistricting commission ballot proposition, the process allowed the legislature to either approve or reject the commission-adopted plans. The surprising end to this story is the legislature’s own map is another “least change” map from the court’s original footprint, which very likely means that the 2024 NY congressional playing field will be almost identical to what we saw in 2022.
NY-4: State Sen. Kevin Thomas (D), who months ago launched a congressional challenge to freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (D-Island Park), late this week announced that he is ending his congressional campaign. Post-NY redistricting, the 4th remains intact and is the most Democratic seat in the country that elects a Republican to the House, or D+10 as the FiveThirtyEight data organization records. In 2022, Mr. D’Esposito upset heavily favored former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen, 52-48%. With Sen. Thomas’ departure, the chances of a D’Esposito/Guillen rematch are much stronger. Obviously, this race will be one of the Democrats top national conversion opportunities.
TN-7: Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, announced that he is reversing his previous decision to retire from Congress and will now seek re-election later this year. The Tennessee candidate filing deadline is April 4th in association with the August 1st state primary election, so the non-binding retirement announcement does not alter any electoral procedure.
Rep. Green said was persuaded to change his mind about retiring from constituents, colleagues, and others including former President Trump. Most of the Tennessee Republican delegation, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) who held the 7th District before Rep. Green, publicly encouraged the Congressman to remain in office. He should have little trouble winning a fourth term later this year.