President Biden gives State of the Union address
The Buzz on the Hill
President Biden gives State of the Union address
President Joe Biden delivered a 66-minute State of the Union address on Thursday, tackling some of the nation’s most contentious issues while also taking aim at Republicans and former President Donald Trump. These were the highlights:
He led by calling for more aid for Ukraine, criticizing Trump and the GOP for attempting to “bury the truth” about January 6, and vowing to restore abortion rights.
He addressed the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, condemning Hamas for its October 7 attack but also calling on Israel to protect Gazan civilians.
He demanded action on the border, blaming Republicans for killing the border security bill they helped negotiate. He then sparred with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-GA), who heckled him about the death of Laken Riley.
He talked about the current state of the economy and gave a glimpse into his economic policies if re-elected, calling for an increase in corporate taxes and taxes on billionaires.
Overall, President Biden brought energy throughout his speech, attempted to quell concerns about his age, and presented himself in contrast to his opponent in the upcoming election.
Jerome Powell gives Semi-Annual Monetary Report to Congress
This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave the Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Report to Congress. In his testimony, Chair Powell praised the current state of the economy, citing lower unemployment, expanded GDP, and shrinking inflation among reasons to be optimistic. He signaled that the Federal Reserve is monitoring the inflation rate and is close to having enough confidence in the current economic conditions to lower interest rates. In hearings with both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, members asked about numerous financial issues, including the affordable housing crisis, the rise in commercial real estate costs, and the status of various banking regulations. Additionally, numerous questions were raised about the Basel III Endgame proposal, with members of Congress raising concerns about expanding capital holding requirements for large banks and the negative consequences the proposal would have on the mortgage lending market. Chair Powell indicated the Federal Reserve was exploring “broad and material” changes to the existing proposal.
House passes spending package as Congress looks to avoid shutdown
On Wednesday, the House passed a $460 billion budget by a vote of 339-85 that would fund the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, Commerce, Energy, Interior, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and Veterans Affairs, as well as many smaller agencies through the rest of FY2024. The Senate is expected to approve the legislation ahead of Friday’s deadline. The White House will then sign off on the bill.
“This bipartisan legislation represents a compromise and neither side got everything it wanted, but it would prevent a damaging shutdown of several key agencies, protect key priorities and make progress for the American people,” the Office of Management and Budget said in a statement.
The bill had some Republican-supported cuts to non-defense and non-veteran affairs spending, including the budgets of the FBI, EPA, and Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Democrats got a $1 billion increase in funding for a nutritional program for low-income women and children. Congress will now work to finalize its remaining six appropriations bills, including the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security budgets. They have until March 22 to avoid a shutdown.
This Week’s Takeaways
Congress is exploring legislative measures to ban TikTok. On Tuesday, Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) introduced legislation that would ban TikTok from the U.S. app store unless the social media app severs ties to CCP parent company Byte Dance. The House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously approved the legislation, officially known as the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, out of committee on Thursday. This isn’t the first time Congress has tried to act against TikTok, and it’s unclear what the path forward for this bill will be. However, there is already bipartisan support as President Biden, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have backed the legislation.
The race to replace Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP Leader is taking shape. On Monday, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) – the current Senate Minority Whip – announced his intentions to run for GOP leadership in November. Sen. Thune officially threw his name in the ring, setting up a showdown with Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), who publicized his plans to run last week. Sen. Cornyn began his campaigning this week, posting on X that he would support adopting term limits for Republican leadership moving forward. Meanwhile, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) was also expected to run for leadership but instead opted out of the race and said he intends to run for the Whip position. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) said he plans to run for Sen. Barrasso’s vacated position as Republican Conference Chair. While there is still plenty of time for a dark horse candidate to emerge, it is looking like a Thune vs. Cornyn matchup to become the next GOP Senate Leader.
On Friday, the House passed the Expanding Access to Capital Act, which aims to protect public markets and help small businesses and investors. “Across the country, entrepreneurs with a new idea, or seeking to grow their business, are struggling to access affordable capital,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) in a statement. “The Expanding Access to Capital Act addresses this and more by alleviating the unique challenges faced by job creators and their investors who live outside major financial hubs. The legislation is designed to build on the Bipartisan JOBS Act of 2012.”
George Santos, expelled from Congress in December, announced his plans to run for office again. Santos was spotted in attendance at the State of the Union and afterward went on X and said he would be challenging Rep. Nick Lalota for the NY-1 seat. “Tonight, I want to announce that I will be returning to the arena of politics and challenging Nick for the battle over #NY1,” said Santos. “I look forward to debating him on the issues and on his weak record as a Republican. The fight for our majority is imperative for the survival of the country.” Rep. Lalota initially led the charge to get Santos expelled from the 118th Congress. Santos currently faces 23 federal charges for fraud and money laundering and is set to begin a criminal court case in September.
Preparing for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, March 12
The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing on Enhancing Access to Care at Home in Rural and Underserved Communities.
The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled "Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization."
The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Examining Proposals to Address Housing Affordability, Availability, and Other Community Needs.
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management will hold a hearing entitled "Disaster Readiness: Examining the Propriety of the Expanded Use of FEMA Resources."
Wednesday, March 13
The House Financial Services Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled "Bureaucratic Overreach or Consumer Protection? Examining the CFPB’s Latest Action to Restrict Competition in Payments."
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
Donald Trump: The U.S. Supreme Court, on a 9-0 vote, ruled against the state of Colorado’s move to ban former President Donald Trump from the ballot in declaring that he violated the insurrection clause of the Constitution’s 14th Amendment. The decision would also affect similar action in Maine, Illinois, and any other state that attempts to bar Trump from the ballot over the insurrection argument. Therefore, SCOTUS ruled that the state of Colorado “erred in ordering former President Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot.”
On a subsequent 5-4 ruling, the SCOTUS decision makes clear that only Congress (by 2/3 majority vote) has the power to disqualify candidates under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and not the states.
Voting Results: As the major candidates were actively campaigning in the Super Tuesday states that will hold their presidential primary elections, former President Donald Trump swept the delegate slates in three state caucuses last Saturday, while former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley won the District of Columbia primary. Republican caucus attenders in Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri awarded all their delegates to Mr. Trump. The Michigan delegate apportioning event was mostly a formality since the former President won the state’s primary election on February 27.
President Biden and former President Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both were one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary adding to her win in Washington, D.C. earlier in the week, while President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20.
After Super Tuesday, both Ms. Haley and U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) suspended their presidential campaigns. Rep. Phillips endorsed President Biden, but Ms. Haley has not yet signaled support for Mr. Trump.
SENATE
California: The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim Senator when incumbent Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.
With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33% of the vote to Mr. Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and 7% of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change as millions of mail ballots continue to be counted, but it appears clear that Messrs. Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.
Ohio: The Ohio Republican Senate primary will be decided on March 19 and a new Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey suggests that a separation among the tightly bunched candidates is occurring. Attributing businessman Bernie Moreno’s more substantial lead to former President Trump endorsing him, Fabrizio Lee, polling for the Moreno campaign (2/25-26; 500 OH likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text), projects a ten-point lead for the first-time candidate, which represents a gain of eight percentage points since the December published survey.
Mr. Moreno would lead Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) by a 31-21-19% split. The Ohio Senate race is one of the most important in the country and viewed as a must-win for Republican hopes of capturing a sustaining Senate chamber majority. The winner of the plurality primary will then face three-term incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in November.
Texas: In a mild surprise, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November. Turnout heavily favored Republicans, however. The total Allred vote was just 29% of Sen. Cruz' aggregate GOP vote.
HOUSE
Alabama: The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48% victory margin.
Though Mr. Carl represents 59% of the new district and Mr. Moore the remainder, the latter man performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome overcome Mr. Carl’s Mobile area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.
The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).
For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff, but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances. The absentee ballot count will be necessary to determine the second runoff qualifier. The secondary elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.
Arkansas: The lone competitive race on the Natural State ballot led to seven-term Rep. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) scoring a 54-46% win over state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale) in an outcome that was closer for the incumbent than initially expected.
California: District 3 incumbent Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin) will face former congressional finalist Jessica Morse (D) in November. In the Stockton-anchored 9th CD, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) sees opposition from Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R).
District 13 freshman incumbent John Duarte (R-Modesto) will again do battle with former Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), thus leading a group of rematches from 2022. In the Fresno-anchored District 21, Rep. Jim Costa (D-Fresno) will be looking to turn away former FBI agent Michael Maher (R) for a second time.
In the Fresno area, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) looks like he will face a rematch from former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas in District 22, though all of the candidates are tightly bunched with just half of the vote tabulated. In District 34, for the third consecutive time, Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) will tangle with Hollywood executive David Kim (D). And, in Riverside County’s 41st District, veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) once more draws former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) in a district that is much less favorable for the Republican incumbent. The closeness of this jungle primary election suggests another highly competitive race unfolding in the general election.
Former Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R) Bakersfield-anchored 20th District will head to a special primary election on March 19 to fill the balance of the current term. In Tuesday night’s regular term jungle primary, state Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) captured first place, as expected, and probably faces fellow Republican and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux in the regular election once all ballots are processed and counted. Most of the same candidates will be on the special election ballot.
In Orange County’s competitive districts, it appears Rep. Michelle Steel (R) will have a general election pairing with Iraq War veteran Derek Tran (D), while Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) will seek a third term against retired fire captain and ex-state Senate candidate Joe Kerr (D). Both women record well over 55% of the vote with over 60% of the ballots recorded.
Republican Scott Baugh, who held Rep. Porter to a 52-48% win in 2022 even when being outspent by an almost 10:1 ratio, looks to have secured a general election position and will likely face state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in November in what will be a highly competitive campaign.
North Carolina: In the competitive House races under the new congressional draw, retired Army Colonel and attorney Laurie Buckhout (R) will challenge freshman Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a district that is less favorable to the Democratic incumbent than under the previous map.
In the open seats, Trump endorsed lobbyist Addison McDowell and former Congressman Mark Walker will advance to a May 14 Republican runoff election because no one reached the 30% plateau. With no Democratic candidate filed, the winner of the secondary nomination contest will replace retiring Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro). With 8th District Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) winning the GOP Attorney General’s nomination, Baptist pastor Mark Harris (R), who looked to have won the seat in 2018 only to be thwarted because of proven voter fraud, may have eclipsed the 30% mark to win the Republican congressional nomination. Absentee and provisional ballots will determine if Harris wins the nomination outright or he and former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom will advance to a secondary runoff election.
Another outright open seat winner is firearms manufacturer and former 14th District candidate Pat Harrigan (R) who defeated state Rep. Grey Mills (R-Mooresville) and will succeed retiring 10th District Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman).
An additional runoff will occur in the north-central 13th District, as Republican attorney Kelly Daughtry and attorney Brad Knott advance into a May 14 runoff election. The secondary election winner will be a heavy favorite against Democratic frequent candidate Frank Pierce.
In the new 14th District, as expected, state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) easily won the Republican primary which will prove tantamount to winning the November general election.
Texas: In the House races, state Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Tarrant County) secured 44.4% of the Republican primary vote and will advance to a runoff election with real estate developer John O’Shea. The winner of that election will assuredly replace retiring veteran Congresswoman Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth).
Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), who was facing four Republican opponents all attacking him, fell short of majority support and is forced into a GOP runoff with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera. Trump-endorsed candidate Brandon Gill easily won outright the open 26th District Republican primary. Retiring Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point) will yield the seat to Mr. Gill after the November election. It appears that state Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Dallas) barely topped the 50% mark to win the Democratic nomination and is in a strong position to succeed Rep. Allred in the Dallas-anchored 32nd District.
In Houston, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D) survived a tough primary challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards with 60% of the Democratic primary vote.
GOVERNOR
North Carolina: As expected, the open Governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night. A tight general election is forecast.