Congress took its President’s Day recess despite the looming budget deadline.
The Buzz on the Hill
Congress took its President’s Day recess this week, proceeding with an extended leave despite the looming budget deadline. The 2024 budget will once again be up for debate next week as some funding provisions from the January 18 Continuing Resolution (CR) are set to expire on March 1 and a potential full government shutdown could occur on March 8. The Senate will be back in session on Tuesday, and the House will return Wednesday night, so both chambers are looking at a tight turnaround to pass a full-year budget or another CR ahead of Friday’s deadline.
Additionally, the Senate-approved foreign aid package that would secure funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan remains in limbo in the House and will be a major topic of discussion next week.
On Friday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) took a surprise trip to Ukraine to assure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that another round of U.S. aid is coming. “I feel I have to be there because it’s so crucial,” Leader Schumer said in an interview. “We are right at a vortex, a critical turning point in the whole West. And if we abandon Ukraine, the consequences for America are severe.” Saturday, February 24, will mark two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, and the situation has become dire in recent weeks with Ukrainian supplies dwindling. Leader Schumer’s visit is an attempt to put pressure on the House to pass the bill, but Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has not indicated when he plans to bring it to a vote.
Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) will be sworn in on February 28 as he replaces George Santos and reassumes the NY-3 seat he held from 2017-2022. Suozzi’s arrival will shrink the GOP majority to a two-seat lead in the House. Speaker Johnson has struggled to navigate the razor-thin advantage his party holds and with Rep. Suozzi joining the fold, things can only be expected to get bumpier.
Preparing for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) is holding an executive session to confirm Julie Su for Secretary of Labor, with two additional nominations taking place.
Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (EPW) hearing entitled Understanding the Presence of Microplastics in Water.
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Senate EPW Hearing entitled Water Resources Development Act 2024: USACE Water Infrastructure Projects, Programs and Priorities.
Additional Items of Interest:
The South Carolina primary is set to take place on Saturday. While former President Donald Trump has all but secured the Republican nomination, the Palmetto State represents one last chance for Nikki Haley to claw back into the race in her home state. Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina from 2011 through 2017, is leaning on her hometown roots to will herself to victory. However, Trump remains the heavy favorite and is likely to continue his run to the GOP nomination without much of a challenge.
The Michigan primary will occur on Tuesday, where Joe Biden could face some opposition. Arab-Americans and progressive activists have called on voters to vote “uncommitted” in the primary in response to Biden’s support for Israel. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) has backed these efforts, along with several local leaders in southeastern Michigan. Rep. Tlaib’s district includes the City of Dearborn, where nearly 55% of residents are of Middle Eastern or North African descent.
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
Sen. Joe Manchin: After testing the political waters for a minor party presidential run, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced that he will not be pursuing a national candidacy. While not said, it is clear that the task of obtaining ballot position in enough states to be competitive proved daunting, and at this point in the cycle very unlikely to be achieved. Without a party label, it is extremely difficult, as even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is finding, to fully qualify for the national campaign.
Michigan: The Michigan presidential primary is scheduled for next Tuesday, and controversial U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for pro-Palestinian voters to “support Gaza” by voting for the Uncommitted Slate in the Democratic primary. While this tactic may gain some votes within the large Muslim community in the Detroit area, it will not deter President Biden from securing all of Michigan’s Democratic delegates. He is on track to mathematically clinch the nomination on the first convention ballot when the March 19th primaries conclude.
Decision Desk HQ: The Decision Desk HQ in association with The Hill newspaper has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest ever electoral vote lead, 312-226.
The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Mr. Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Mr. Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.
SENATE
Arizona: Two new Arizona U.S. Senate polls were just released, and both show a significant change in the race status. First, while previous polls were projecting Republican Kari Lake holding a small lead, this pair sees Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) moving into first place and incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, running on the Independent line, substantially improving her position. Previously, she was languishing in the teens, and now both surveys find her well in the 20+ percentile range and back in competition to potentially win re-election.
Emerson College surveyed the Arizona electorate over the February 16 through 19 period (1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results find a 36-30-21% Gallego, Lake, and Sinema split. Arizona based Noble Predictive Insights polled the state during the February 6 through 13 period (1,002 AZ registered voters; online) and found a similar result, 34-31-23% in the same order as the Emerson finding. These numbers suggest that the Sinema increase is coming at the expense of Lake and not Gallego.
California: Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (2/16-18; 1,000 CA registered voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28% of the vote.
In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22%. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 and 9%, respectively.
The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.
Montana: Survey USA, polling for the NonStop Local organization (2/12-15; 700 NC adults; 612 NC registered voters; 549 likely voters) tested the Montana electorate shortly after Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) announced his short-lived Senate campaign. The results provided good news for Sen. Jon Tester (D), who faces the political winds this year. Against both aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and Mr. Rosendale, Sen. Tester posted identical 49-40% leads. Earlier surveys found a much closer ballot test.
Rep. Rosendale’s abrupt exit from the Senate race virtually clears the GOP field for Mr. Sheehy who already has the entire Republican state and national establishment backing his campaign. The Montana race is a top tier GOP challenge contest and one of the states likely to determine which party will claim the Senate majority in the next Congress.
Nevada: Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and KLAS-TV in Las Vegas also polled the impending Nevada Senate race (2/16-19; (1,000 AZ registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) and already project a dead heat contest. The results find Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), running for a second term, dropping to 40% support and leading Afghanistan veteran Sam Brown (R) by only a 40-38% margin. The Nevada race will become a top tier Republican challenge opportunity.
Texas: Recent polls have shown a tight race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). It is expected that the various ballot tests will show a close contest all the way to election day, at which point Sen. Cruz will likely pull away and post a 5+ point victory. Additionally, while Rep. Allred has been very successful on the fundraising front, he still must navigate through a contested Democratic primary that has a good chance of advancing into a runoff election.
The National Public Affairs Republican polling firm (2/6-8; 807 TX likely voters; live interview & text) recently released their survey the Texas electorate. While the data produces a three point Republican advantage on the generic congressional question and Donald Trump tops President Biden at 42-35%, the Senate race between Cruz and Allred finds the two tied at 44% apiece. Previously, we saw chronological polls giving Cruz nine (YouGov) two (Emerson College) and six point (YouGov) leads.
YouGov, however, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (2/2-12; 1,313 TX registered voters; 1,200 TX likely primary voters; online) finds a much different November election result. Within the general election sample, Sen. Cruz records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32% margin over Rep. Allred.
Wisconsin: Banking and real estate investor Eric Hovde, who ran for the Senate in the 2012 Republican primary, has filed a 2024 US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Wisconsin is the last potentially competitive state where Republicans do not have a strong candidate. The national Republican leadership hopes Mr. Hovde will be viable enough to keep this state in play for November. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term.
HOUSE
CA-47: As the California candidates head toward the March 5th jungle primary, Republican Scott Baugh, who held Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) to a 52-48% victory in 2022 even though the incumbent outspent him by almost a 10:1 margin, released a poll for the upcoming race.
WPA Intelligence surveyed the CA-47 electorate (2/12-14; 366 CA-47 likely jungle primary voters; live interview and text) and sees Mr. Baugh placing first with 27% support and advancing into the general election. In second place, despite being under heavy attack for his televised drunk driving arrest, is state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) with 22%. Attorney Joanna Weiss (D), the third major candidate in the race, trails with 16%.
MT-2: While Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) still has not said whether he will seek re-election to the House after withdrawing from his short-lived Senate campaign, other Republicans are moving forward.
The latest to enter the race is former six-term Congressman Denny Rehberg. Serving from 2001 to 2013 and leaving the at-large House seat in an unsuccessful attempt at running for the Senate, Mr. Rehberg is attempting a political comeback after a long absence. He also was elected twice on the statewide ticket as Montana’s Lt. Governor prior to his service in Congress.
Assuming Rep. Rosendale does not run, Rehberg will have a lot of company in the Republican primary. A total of nine contenders have become candidates for the ostensibly open position with Mr. Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore (R-Miles City) appear to be the most formidable of the group.
NJ-8: Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22% advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. Several days later, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released 2/20; 403 NJ-8 likely Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41%.
NY-26: The 26th District Republican county chairmen have chosen West Seneca Town Supervisor and former FBI agent Gary Dickson as their special election nominee to replace resigned New York Congressman Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo).
The 26th District is heavily Democratic, so state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo), the latter party’s nominee begins the race as the solid favorite. Even Mr. Dickson acknowledged his uphill battle saying, “the voters need an election and not a coronation.” The special election is scheduled for April 30. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-26 as D+18.
OR-5: One of the major OR-5 Democratic contenders this week ended her bid and endorsed another candidate. Lynn Peterson is the President of Portland’s Metro Council and was an announced congressional candidate. Seeing the race trends, Ms. Peterson has dropped her bid and endorsed state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), following the lead of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
The 2022 nominee, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is in the race but losing steam. She lost to now-incumbent Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley), and it’s clear the Democratic synergy is now turning toward Rep. Bynum as the stronger candidate.
GOVERNOR
North Carolina: Of the eleven 2024 gubernatorial campaigns on the general election ballot, the North Carolina contest appears as the most competitive. With Gov. Roy Cooper (D) ineligible to seek a third term, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are virtual locks earn general election ballot positions.
East Carolina University just completed a poll of the state (2/9-12; 1,207 NC registered voters; Interactive Voice Response system) and posts Mr. Robinson to a 53-13-7% over attorney and former prosecutor Bill Graham and state Treasurer Dale Folwell in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, AG Stein records a similarly strong 57-7% margin over retired state Supreme Court Judge Mike Morgan.
Turning to the general election, this polling universe yields a 41-41% tie between the two men. North Carolina typically features tight statewide races, and this open Governor’s race appears to be consistent with such voter history.
Washington: Once again, we see more survey data predicting a tight open seat campaign, this time in the Washington Governor’s race. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (2/13-14; 789 likely WA voters; live interview & text) sees Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former US Representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) advancing into the general election from the August 6th jungle primary.
Messrs. Ferguson and Reichert recorded a respective 35-27-9% showing over Richland School Board member Semi Bird in the primary polling. In the general election, Mr. Ferguson posted a 46-42% advantage over Mr. Reichert.
LOCALITIES
Maricopa County, Arizona: GOP Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) may be retiring from Congress, but not from elective politics. Ms. Lesko announced that she will run this year for an open seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. The incumbent, Republican Clint Hickman who was re-elected four years ago with almost 59% of the vote, is retiring. Former President Trump carried the 4th Supervisorial District with 57% over President Biden in 2020.