Focused on government funding

The Golden Apple: March 10, 2025

This week will be focused on government funding, as the March 14th shutdown deadline looms.  Over the weekend, Congressional Republicans released text for a continuing resolution that would extend funding through September.  House Democrats quickly panned the text, noting that instead of a “clean” funding extension, this bill increases spending for deportation and military funding and imposes cuts on non-defense spending.  The vote is scheduled for tomorrow afternoon to allow time for the bill to clear the Senate and be signed by the President ahead of Friday’s deadline. There will be much talk about whether House Republicans can hold their conference together to pass the bill, but we haven’t seen much in the way of real, firm objections from Republicans.

Financial Services and Banking Updates

McKernan, Pulte Clear Committee Vote: Last Thursday, Jonathan McKernan, nominee to be CFPB Director, and Bill Pulte, nominated for FHFA, cleared the Senate Banking Committee in Thursday votes.  McKernan passed on a 13-11 party-line vote, with Ranking Member Warren citing concerns about his ability to lead the agency in the Trump-Musk era.  Pulte gained the support of two Democrats, freshmen Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) in a 15-9 vote. The Committee quickly scheduled the session last week, leaving timing on floor consideration as the final hurdle for these nominees.  

House Hears Testimony on Digital Payments: Stablecoins are a top priority in both Chambers, and Financial Services Chair French Hill is leaning into the discussion tomorrow.  The Committee will hear testimony on the STABLE Act, the House version of legislation creating a stablecoin regulatory framework, and will also discuss use cases for stablecoin in trade and commerce.

Senate Stablecoin Markup Slows: The Senate Banking Committee was rumored to be pushing for a markup on their own stablecoin legislation this Thursday.  It has been a significant lift, as staff were working hard to source comment from stakeholders and make final adjustments to the bill.  As of now, the markup is not on the schedule for this week, though the Committee is expected to proceed with the markup at the earliest opportunity, including possibly noticing it before the end of the day today.

House Small Business Committee Examines SBA: Tomorrow, the House Small Business Committee holds a hearing entitled “Restoring the SBA: Putting Main Street America First.” This review comes shortly after news broke last week regarding SBA’s firing of fraud inspectors within the agency, though the hearing is not expected to be combative.

Congressional Updates

Recesses Upcoming: If the timing seems rushed on a number of the above items, it is.  House Democrats leave town Wednesday for their annual retreat.  The full House and Senate are both out on recess next week, adding additional pressure to pass the spending agreement.

Reconciliation Tax Provisions Under Discussion: Ways and Means Republicans are deep into discussions on the tax portion of reconciliation, but there is a critical step that must be completed first.  The House and Senate, both having passed their unique budget resolutions, must negotiate a unified resolution that passes both chambers.  This will kick off the reconciliation process, where we will see specific provisions and programs laid out.  Rumor has it that the House is holding the last week of March to pass a unified resolution, and the Senate is holding the first week of April, but timing is always fluid.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Alabama:  After announcing in early January that he would seek re-election to a second term, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is backtracking and now indicates that he is seriously considering entering his state’s open Governor’s race.  Since the Senate seat is in-cycle, Sen. Tuberville must risk his position should he embark on a gubernatorial campaign.  Doing so would likely reduce the number of people running for Governor but yield a large Republican field vying for an open Senate seat.

Louisiana:  JMC Analytics released a Louisiana Republican primary Senate poll that produced bad news for incumbent Bill Cassidy (R).  The survey (2/24-26; 600 LA likely GOP primary voters; live interview & text) found State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming leading Sen. Cassidy 29-27% with two minor candidates receiving a combined 8% preference.  In a one-on-one test, Mr. Fleming tops the Senator 40-27%.

Previously, Louisiana ran a jungle primary system to determine general election finalists.  For the 2026 election and beyond, the state is returning to the partisan primary and runoff system.  Therefore, Sen. Cassidy’s general election strength apparently is not as relevant in a partisan Republican primary.

Minnesota:  Dave Wellstone, son of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D), is indicating he may file to compete for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2026.  Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the only officially announced candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).  Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is a possible contender.  Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but a strong Republican candidate could prove competitive.

New Hampshire:  The online news NH Journal commissioned a poll from Praecones Analytica (2/26-3/1; 626 NH registered voters; online) and found former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) leading three-term Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by a stout 54-46% margin.  Sen. Shaheen, however, would top former Massachusetts Senator and 2020 NH Senate candidate Scott Brown (R) by a similar 55-45% spread.  She would also lead Commissioner of Education Frank Edelblut 59-41%. 

Perhaps her most serious problem is that 60.4% of the NH respondents said they are very or somewhat concerned about Sen. Shaheen’s age.  She will be 79 at the time of the next election and 85 if she were to secure and complete a fourth term. 

North Carolina:  A new Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina general election voters (3/4-5; 662 NC registered voters) sees two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) beginning his re-election effort trailing former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), if the latter man were to challenge him in the 2026 Senate campaign.  The ballot test produced a 47-43% lead for Mr. Cooper.  The former Governor says he is undecided about whether he will challenge Sen. Tillis. 

The Senator’s job approval rating is poor, 25:46% favorable to unfavorable.  Some of the disapproval comes from Republicans who see Sen. Tillis as straying from President Trump.  North Carolina always hosts close statewide races, and the 2026 campaign will apparently again follow the tight election pattern.

Texas:  Two-term US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is testing the political waters for his own potential challenge next year of veteran Sen. John Cornyn (R).  It has long been presumed that state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) is going to oppose Sen. Cornyn, but an entry from a candidate such as Rep. Hunt could drastically change the Republican primary and very possibly force Cornyn into a runoff with either he or Mr. Paxton. 

The fractured Republican primary could then pave the way for a truly competitive general election particularly if 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), now a former Congressman, decides to make a comeback.

HOUSE

TX-18:  Freshman Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), just hours after attending President Trump’s address to Congress, suddenly passed away.  Mr. Turner had earlier been diagnosed with bone cancer but declared himself cancer-free before the 2024 election.  Prior to winning the US House seat, Mr. Turner served two four-year terms as mayor of Houston and for 27 years in the Texas House of Representatives. 

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a special election to replace Mr. Turner.  Candidates will compete in an initial election.  If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into a runoff election that the Governor will then schedule. 

Rep. Turner’s predecessor, the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), won 14 consecutive US House elections until she succumbed to cancer in July of 2024.  Therefore, this will be the second time in less than a year that the 18th District will be vacant due to an incumbent’s death.

GOVERNOR

Colorado:  Three-term US Senator Michael Bennet (D) is reportedly seriously considering running for the open Governor’s position in 2026.  If he were to enter the contest, Colorado politics would be seriously upended. 

The many gubernatorial candidates and potential candidates would be forced to reconsider their chances of winning a statewide primary against their sitting senior Senator.  Included as potential gubernatorial candidates are US Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) and Jason Crow (D-Aurora).  The only formally announced Democratic gubernatorial candidate is Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) who is ineligible to seek a third term for his current position.

A second Republican also came forward during the week.  State Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salida) indicated that he will run for Governor next year.  He would join state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs) as candidates vying for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Georgia:  Four-term US Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) is reportedly making plans to announce her candidacy for Governor.  A formal declaration is expected in a matter of weeks.  So far, the only person to announce for Governor is Attorney General Chris Carr (R).  Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is ineligible to seek a third term under Georgia election law.

Illinois:  The first Republican gubernatorial candidate made his political plans known during the week.  DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick (R) announced that he will compete in the Governor’s race irrespective of whether incumbent J.B. Pritzker (D) decides to run for a third term.  Under any circumstance, however, a Republican nominee will be a long shot at best to win an Illinois Governor’s race.

Maine:  Maine State Representative Laurel Libby (R-Auburn), who has gained notoriety throughout the political world for highlighting that girls’ sports should be limited to biological females and as a result was stripped of her floor privileges and voting rights in the state House, says she is considering launching a campaign for Governor. 

Considering her newfound name ID throughout the state and becoming a heroine within the Republican base, Ms. Libby becomes a formidable candidate for the statewide party nomination.  She would also have the ability of attracting national funding for what could become a competitive general election.  Incumbent Gov. Janet Mills, who is fighting President Trump over the same transgender issue, is ineligible to seek a third term next year.

Rhode Island:  Gov. Dan McKee (D) announced that he will stand for a second full term next year and, like in 2022, his main obstacle to election will be the Democratic primary rather than the general election.  Former CVS pharmacies executive Helena Foulkes (D), who lost the 2022 Democratic primary to Mr. McKee by just three percentage points, will return for another attempt.  She is also raising money at a brisker pace than the Governor. 

Attorney General Peter Neronha (D), ineligible to run for re-election, initially said he was likely to enter the Lt. Governor’s race.  This week, however, he admits to having second thoughts and may now run for Governor.

At the time of the 2022 Democratic primary, Mr. McKee had ascended to the Governorship from his position as Lt. Governor when the incumbent, Gina Raimondo (D), was appointed US Commerce Secretary for the Biden Administration.  The 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary also promises to be highly competitive. 

Virginia:  Two former state legislators are now looking to enter the 2025 Republican gubernatorial primary.  Ex-state Sen. Amanda Chase (R) and ex-Delegate Dave LaRock (R) both say they will challenge Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears for the GOP nomination.  The pair, however, may have a difficult time even qualifying for the ballot. 

Virginia law requires potential candidates to gather 10,000 valid VA registered voter signatures with at least 400 from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts.  The candidate filing deadline is April 3rd, which is a short time frame to complete what most believe is a rather daunting task.

STATE AND LOCAL

Florida AG:  A new Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey (2/26-27; 600 FL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds former US Representative and current OAN news anchor Matt Gaetz leading appointed Attorney General James Uthmeier in an early Republican primary survey. 

The ballot test finds Mr. Gaetz posting an 18 percentage point lead over the new AG, 39-21%.  Mr. Uthmeier has already announced that he will run for a full term in 2026 and is organizing a campaign operation.  Mr. Gaetz has not yet committed to entering the race.

Boston:  Emerson College (2/24-26; 617 Boston likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Mayor Michelle Wu (D) leading businessman Josh Kraft (D), son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, with a rather unimpressive 43-29% count for their 2025 mayoral battle.  All candidates will be placed on a September 9th regardless of political party.  If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers will then advance to a November 4th general election.

New York City:  As expected, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced this week that he will run for Mayor later this year.  Mr. Cuomo has been leading in all publicly released polls, but with a margin suggesting Ranked Choice Voting rounds will be required. 

Additionally, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (D) declared that she, too, will join the crowded mayoral Democratic field that includes incumbent Eric Adams.  All candidates must officially file by the April 3rd deadline for the June 24th Democratic primary. 

Pittsburgh:  A recently released mid-February Lake Research Partners Poll (2/6-11; 500 Pittsburgh likely voters; live interview) found Mayor Ed Gainey (D) trailing his Democratic opponent, Allegheny County Controller Corey O’Connor, by a 47-35% clip.  Mayor Gainey also trails in fundraising according to an Axios Pittsburgh article. 

Mr. O’Connor, who is also attracting some Republican support, raised $465,000 in January as compared to Mayor Gainey’s $24,000 raised.  The challenger also has a cash-on-hand advantage of more than $400,000.  The Democratic primary, which now promises to be highly competitive, is scheduled for May 20th.

St. Louis:  The St. Louis mayoral primary was held during the week, and Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) is in serious trouble for re-election.  In the city’s new “Approval Voting” system, which replaces their Ranked Choice Voting option of 2021, voters have as many votes as there are candidates.  Only one vote per candidate may be cast, however.

In the initial result, Cara Spencer, a member of the St. Louis Board of Aldermen, crushed Mayor Jones 68-33%.  The other two candidates received the bulk of the approval votes, which led to a cumulative approval vote percentage of 140%.  Ms. Spencer and Mayor Jones now advance to the April 8th general municipal election.