Foreign Aid Package could finally be on the way
The Buzz on the Hill
Foreign Aid Package could finally be on the way
The U.S. House plans to take up a series of foreign aid bills in a rare Saturday session that collectively are similar to the $95 billion package passed in the Senate in February. The three bills include an adjustment from the original Senate package that $10 billion in Ukraine economic assistance will be a repayable loan. To reach this point, late Thursday night, the GOP-led House Rules Committee used Democratic support to advance the package, a sign that Republican leaders will need votes from across the aisle to pass the legislation. The Rules Committee vote will most likely inflame conservatives against additional aid to Ukraine and have threatened House Speaker Mike Johnson’s job over the issue. A fourth bill in the package includes other House GOP priorities, including sanctions on Iran, the seizure of frozen Russian sovereign assets, and a measure that could lead to a nationwide ban on TikTok. On Friday, the House voted 316-94 to open debate on the package. We can expect a vote on final passage Saturday, delaying the start of a weeklong congressional recess. Johnson navigated the legislation through the process while facing increasing pressure from the Freedom Caucus about a potential ouster from the speakership. He even explored adding a rule to the foreign aid package that would only allow party leaders to file a motion to vacate; however, he ultimately decided against pursuing that strategy despite support for the change by rank-and-file GOP members and some Democrats. Currently, any single member can file a motion. After months of turbulence, this is the closest a foreign aid package has come to getting over the finish line.
Senate shuts down Sec. Mayorkas impeachment trial
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’s impeachment trial reached a lackluster conclusion on Wednesday. Back in February, the House Republicans impeached Mayorkas as a response to the situation at the border. Mayorkas became the first cabinet member to get impeached in 150 years, although Democrats dismissed the trial as a “political stunt.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) held several procedural votes before voting to kill both articles of impeachment, with the motions passing along party lines. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AL) voted present. The end of the Mayorkas impeachment signaled that future moves to impeach members of the Biden Administration in this current iteration of Congress will be relatively fruitless.
Lummis, Gillibrand introduce Stablecoin Legislation
On Wednesday, Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) introduced the Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoin Act. The bipartisan legislation aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins that ensures consumer protections. The bill would allow banks and non-bank entities to stablecoins through dedicated subsidiaries and introduce capital and one-to-one reserve requirements, among other provisions. Gillibrand said the bill “protects consumers by mandating one-to-one reserves, prohibiting algorithmic stablecoins, and requiring stablecoin issuers to comply with U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions rules.” The landmark legislation could be a major step toward regulating digital assets.
This Week’s Takeaways
Postmaster General Louis DeJoy was on the hill this week to testify in front of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs. Senators grilled Postmaster DeJoy on the rollout of his Delivering For America (DFA) plan, which has led to increased costs and delivery delays. There were also concerns about the DFA’s local transportation optimization initiative, which has consolidated local mail centers into larger regional sites and led to massive slowdowns in mail delivery in Virginia and Georgia, and caused rural residents to experience significant delays. Postmaster DeJoy assured the Committee that the DFA would improve the USPS’s long-term viability, and they were experiencing some issues in the short term that would get worked out. However, the Committee questioned the implementation of the plan and felt the USPS needed to be more transparent about its costs and timeline.
Former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine said he supported tax-exempt spaceport bonds. Bridenstine participated in a House Select Committee on the CCP Roundtable on the current space race with China, alongside stakeholders from the Space Force and the Commercial Space Industry. The Committee discussed strategies for the U.S. to secure its space future against China including bolstering international partnerships and developing satellites that could counter China’s weaponized space technology. During the roundtable, Rep. Neal Dunn brought up his legislation, the Secure U.S. Leadership in Space Act of 2024, which would make spaceports eligible for tax-exempt bonds. Bridenstine offered “100% support” for the legislation, another sign that NASA has embraced the commercial space industry.
The Senate will vote on FISA reauthorization this weekend. On Thursday, the bill cleared a procedural vote and paved the way for passage this weekend. This would renew Section 702, the controversial spy powers bill that allows the government to collect data on foreign targets. Section 702 has faced bipartisan criticism, particularly around the fact that the government can access this data without a warrant. However, the bill is expected to pass at some point this weekend. The current FISA bill is set to expire today.
Preparing for the Week Ahead
After votes in the House on Saturday, Congress will begin a one-week recess. The House and Senate will be back in session on Monday, April 29.
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
Arizona: With the Arizona state Supreme Court upholding a more than century old abortion law in response to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v. Wade decision, Fabrizio Lee & Associates tested the Arizona electorate for ex-President Donald Trump’s campaign (4/7-11; 400 AZ likely general election voters; live interview & text).
According to the poll analysis, the heavy coverage of the abortion issue in the state has not swayed the swing voters. While Democrats largely mention abortion as the most important recent issue, independents, and a category that Fabrizio Lee terms as “Persuadables,” do not.
Therefore, President Biden is not gaining new Arizona votes according to this survey sample. Thus, the ballot test, which includes Trump, Biden, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and probable Libertarian Party nominee Lars Mapstead, finds Mr. Trump leading the field with a 42-37-10-2-1% margin, respectively. Arizona is one of the seven critical swing states that will determine the presidential election’s outcome.
Michigan: It has been a consistent pattern in recent weeks that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and the minor party candidates have been routinely taking more support from President Biden than from Donald Trump. The latest Michigan poll reveals the opposite trend.
The Marketing Resource Group, a regular Wolverine State pollster, was in the field testing the presidential race. Their survey (4/8-11; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Trump leading President Biden 42-36% on a head-to-head ballot test question.
When Mr. Kennedy and the minor party candidates are added, the Trump margin shrinks to 37-34%, with Mr. Kennedy attracting 13%, and the remaining candidates taking an aggregate three more percentage points. When taking into account those who say they will vote for someone else, are undecided, or refused to answer the question, we see an additional 13% at this point falling away from the two major party candidates.
Texas: The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (4/5-10; 1,600 TX likely voters) and finds Donald Trump posting a twelve-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1% in the above candidate order. Texas, the second largest state in population, will apportion 40 electoral votes to its presidential winner.
The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Mr. Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37%, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while the President exhibits clear weakness within the community. Mr. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the President, 44-34%, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34%.
SENATE
Arizona: The Tyson Group conducted an April survey of the Arizona electorate (4/10-11; 600 AZ likely general election voters; online). Without incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (I) in the candidate field, US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) scored a 39-34% preference vote over Republican Kari Lake, while businesswoman Sarah Williams drew a significant vote share (10%). With Donald Trump leading in this poll’s presidential ballot test, the fact that Ms. Lake trails within the same polling sample is a bad general election sign for the Senate GOP.
Maryland: Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks released the results of her most recent internal poll (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; 4/8-10; 600 MD likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her lagging behind US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40%.
The Baltimore Sun newspaper was in the field simultaneously and arrived at a very different conclusion. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; 4/7-10; 1,292 MD likely general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Ms. Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29%.
With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted during the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14th Maryland primary.
Nevada: A new Tarrance Group poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee produces good news for endorsed candidate Sam Brown, the businessman and Afghan War disabled veteran.
The survey (4/7-10; 500 NV likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Mr. Brown posting 58% support. His closest opponent, former state Assemblyman and past Secretary of State and congressional nominee Jim Marchant, records only a 6% preference factor. Former US Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who has pledged to spend $3 million of his own money to fund his candidacy, and former Lt. Governor candidate Tony Grady each have only 3% support.
Aside from yielding Mr. Brown highly positive reviews, the survey data returns bad news for Mr. Gunter. When the respondents were asked for their second choice in the race, Mr. Marchant posted 30% as opposed to Mr. Gunter’s 4 percent. The winner of the June 11 primary then challenges Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what will be a premier general election campaign.
West Virginia: Research America published the results of their early April survey (4/3-9; 400 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) that again sees Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding a huge lead over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) as the two compete to succeed retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). As has been found in many other surveys, Research America pegs the Justice lead at 66-24% as the two enter the final month of campaigning. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th.
Winning the West Virginia race in November is critical to Republican hopes of capturing the Senate, and the eventual Republican nominee should have little trouble converting the seat in the general election. Doing so would even the Senate’s partisan division at 50D-50R.
Wisconsin: Marquette University tested the Badger State electorate as they do every quarter (4/3-10; 814 WI registered voters). While we see former President Trump leading 48-45% within the sample’s likely voters, his edge drops to 41-40% when Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s 13% support is added to the ballot test result in addition to the five percentage points that Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West cumulatively attract. Therefore, like the recently released Michigan poll, we now see the Independent and minor party candidates beginning to take more from the Trump coalition than the commensurate Biden vote base.
On the bad news front for the Democrats, the voter enthusiasm question cuts decisively against them. Only 66% of Democratic respondents said they were either very (43%) or somewhat (23%) enthusiastic about voting in November. This contrasts with 82% of the Republican respondents saying they are very (60%) or somewhat (22%) enthusiastic about casting their ballots in the general election.
Overall, the 52-47% break for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in the Senate race is good news for the GOP. After having trouble securing a candidate, businessman Eric Hovde (R) is already proving to be a close competitor. The numbers are even more encouraging for Hovde when we see that approximately 56% of respondents express unfamiliarity with his candidacy. This compares with just under 11% who are unfamiliar with Sen. Baldwin.
HOUSE
AL-2: As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39% count. Mr. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43%.
The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Senator Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42% victory. In the March 5 primary, Mr. Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Ms. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by over twelve percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third place finisher. Like Mr. Figures, Ms. Dobson will now advance into the November 5 general election.
CA-16: The Silicon Valley anchored open 16th Congressional District is the site of an oddity in California’s top two jungle primary system. The official primary vote count produced a tie between the second and third place finishers, meaning three individuals will advance to the general election instead of just two. Fearing that again counting the votes could alter the outcome, neither tied candidate, San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) or Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), called for a recount.
Early this week, however, an individual placed a $12,000 deposit to begin the machine recount. Jonathan Padilla is a 2020 Joe Biden convention delegate, according to the Daily Kos Elections site, who used to work for former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), the man who secured the first ballot qualifying position for the 16th District general election. A PAC, also with ties to Liccardo, has said they will finance the recount the cost of which could reach $300,000.
CA-20: Now that Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has successfully defended the Secretary of State’s lawsuit attempting to prevent him from running for Congress in the regular term and simultaneously for state Assembly with last week’s appellate court ruling, we see new favorable Fong survey data.
The Assemblyman placed first in the March 19 special election primary with 42.3% of the vote in a field of nine jungle primary candidates. Also advancing into the May 21 special general election is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux (R) who posted a 25.8% support figure. The special election winner will immediately be sworn into Congress and finish the term from which former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned.
WPA Intelligence surveyed the 20th District (4/1-3; 400 CA-20 likely special election voters; live interview) and finds Mr. Fong leading Sheriff Boudreaux by a 46-30% margin. He also has the advantage in three of the district’s four counties, Fresno, Kern, and Kings, while the latter man leads in his home of Tulare County.
KS-2: Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) yesterday surprisingly announced that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.
The LaTurner decision means there are 50 seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.
NJ-8: A just released Global Strategy Group survey (4/1-4; 400 NJ-8 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), suffering fallout from his father’s upcoming corruption trial, trailing Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) by a 33-28% margin with businessman Kyle Jasey (D) attracting 7% of the vote.
With Sen. Bob Menendez (D) facing a jury trial in early May, even more attention will be paid to the Menendez family though Congressman Menendez is not accused of any wrongdoing. The Senator’s favorability index in the 8th District, however, has dropped to 22:69% favorable to unfavorable according to the GSG poll.
Rep. Menendez is in a much better position but barely in positive territory at 38:34%. Mayor Bhalla, not as well known, ties the Congressman on the favorable point at 38% positive, but his negative number is only 8 percent. This June 4 primary challenge continues to be rated as a highly competitive contest.