Ukraine aid remains top priority in Washington
This Week’s Takeaways
Ukraine aid remains top priority in Washington. Congress returns from its two-week Easter recess on Monday and securing aid for Ukraine is a key legislative item for most lawmakers. On February 13, the Senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid package, including $60 billion for Ukraine. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has yet to act on the legislation, instead tabling it to focus on passing the budget. But with FY2024 appropriations now settled, pressure is on Speaker Johnson to get something done. The U.S. has not passed an aid package for Ukraine since December 2022, and the situation has become much more dire with Russian forces attacking Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure and threatening to break through Ukraine’s frontlines. Supporters of Ukraine, including President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have advocated for swift passage of the aid package. However, some GOP hardliners have come out against the legislation, which indicates Speaker Johnson will need Democratic support to get the bill through. Last weekend, Speaker Johnson said he would look to pass Ukraine aid right after recess. Now, some reports indicate a House vote may not take place until at least mid-April if not later. According to press sources, Speaker Johnson’s strategy with the aid package may include converting part of the aid into a loan, which former President Donald Trump supports, and attaching the REPO Act to the legislation, which would authorize President Biden to sell Russian assets and use those proceeds to help Ukraine. Ukraine will be a hot-button issue as Congress returns to session, and while a legislative package should come to fruition, it will not be a straightforward process.
President Biden criticizes Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, calls for ceasefire. President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday. This is the first conversation the leaders have had since seven World Central Kitchen workers were killed delivering aid in Gaza earlier this week. According to a White House statement, President Biden “made clear the need for Israel to announce and implement a series of specific, concrete, and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers.” He also “underscored that an immediate ceasefire is essential to stabilize and improve the humanitarian situation and protect innocent civilians.” Additionally, Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) has indicated the U.S. should consider putting conditions on future aid to Israel. How the U.S. moves forward with handling the Israel-Gaza conflict will be closely monitored around the world.
FAA reauthorization approaching deadline. Another priority for Congress is finalizing the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Reauthorization bill, which would fund the FAA through 2028. The bill, known as the Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2024, was reported favorably out of committee in February and was placed on the Senate legislative calendar, but no further action has been taken. The FAA has been under heavy scrutiny following the Boeing 737 Max incident in January. As a result, one measure in the new bill is to increase the number of safety inspectors on airplane factory floors. The legislation would also add five slots for long-distance flights at DCA, a controversial move that has faced opposition from D.C. area and East Coast lawmakers. On March 8, President Biden enacted short-term funding legislation to keep the FAA funded through May 10, the third short-term package that has been passed since funding expired at the end of last September. Congress will look to pass the long-term funding bill ahead of the May 10th deadline.
Turnover on Capitol Hill. Late last month, Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX) announced she was stepping down as chair of the House Appropriations Committee prior to the end of her term. Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), the House Rules Committee chair, and Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-AL), the House Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies chair are the expected frontrunners for the position. Currently, the House GOP Steering Committee is scheduled to select a new leader on April 9. However, Rep. Aderholt wrote in a letter on Wednesday that delivers a message that the committee should not rush to pick a new leader. The coveted position will hold a key role as FY2025 appropriations get underway. Additionally, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-MI) has been tapped to replace Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) as chair of the Chinese Communist Party Select Committee. Rep. Gallagher is set to leave Congress on April 19. Following the appointment, Rep. Moolenaar said on X that the committee “will help prepare America to win the competition against the CCP.” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), the ranking member of the committee said, "I look forward to continuing this important work with the new Chairman.”
Preparing for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, April 9
The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on "Countering Illicit Finance, Terrorism and Sanctions Evasion" with Department of Treasury Deputy Secretary Adewale O. Adeyemo.
Wednesday, April 10
The House and Senate Appropriations Committees will hold hearings reviewing the President's Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security with Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on "Beyond Scope: How the SEC’s Climate Rule Threatens American Markets."
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Economic Development, Public Buildings, and Emergency Management Subcommittee will hold a hearing on "From Headquarters Building to Field Offices: Examining the FBI’s Real Estate Needs and Strategy."
The House Committee on Small Business will hold a hearing on "Tax Day: Exploring the Adverse Effects of High Taxes and a Complex Tax Code."
Thursday, April 11
The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing on "Expanding on the Success of the 2017 Tax Relief to Help Hardworking Americans."
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
Primary Results: Voters in Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin had the opportunity to cast their presidential nomination ballots on Tuesday. To no one’s surprise, President Biden and former President Donald Trump easily swept their respective elections and added to their delegate totals. The Democrats had a good primary election night as more of their party members voted in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
At this point, we have seen just over 30 million people vote in the 32 states with comparable Democratic and Republican primaries. From these states, 57.1% of individuals have chosen to vote in Republican primaries. One may argue that the more competitive presidential race was on the GOP side, and that could account for the imbalance between the two parties. While there is validity to this line of reasoning, Democratic turnout is running below the party’s historical participation average even in some of their strongest states.
Whether this is a precursor to general election voting is not yet determined, but it is clear that President Biden is generally lacking enthusiasm within the Democratic base in most states.
Nebraska: With the support of Gov. Jim Pillen (R), a bill in the unicameral legislature would change Nebraska’s electoral vote apportionment system that allows each of the state’s three congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The measure would change the system to the winner-take-all option.
Nebraska and Maine are the two states where presidential candidates win two electoral votes for winning the statewide vote and one each for a carried CD.
The move would help Donald Trump in this year’s presidential race because he is a lock to carry the statewide vote, but the underdog in the Omaha anchored 2nd Congressional District. Though Republicans have a large majority in the ostensibly non-partisan state Senate, there is no guarantee the votes will be present to change the system. Doing so, however, would likely deliver an important electoral vote to the Trump candidacy.
The first vote was taken with the measure as an amendment to another bill, and it failed by a whopping 8-36 vote. Therefore, it does not appear the legislature has the appetite to change the electoral vote rules at this point in the election cycle.
SENATE
Maryland: After seeing polling showing former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) well ahead in Senate general election pairings, Goucher College, partnering with Braun Research and the Baltimore Banner digital news source (3/19-24; 800 MD registered voters; live interview & text), finds Mr. Hogan leading both Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D), but not by the margins seen in other recent surveys.
According to the Goucher results, Mr. Hogan leads Rep. Trone, 43-42%, and 44-40% if Ms. Alsobrooks were the Democratic nominee. Still, as found in other polls, Mr. Hogan holds an extremely high favorability rating. His index registers 63:30% favorable to unfavorable, but it does not translate into votes as in other surveys. In the Democratic primary, despite Trone’s overwhelming spending advantage, he leads Ms. Alsobrooks only 42-33%.
New Jersey: With both indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy out of the Democratic Senate primary, it is no surprise that US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has posted a major lead in the first poll since his major opponents’ exits.
Emerson College released their New Jersey Senate Democratic primary numbers (3/26-29; 408 NJ Democratic voters; multiple sampling techniques) that find Mr. Kim breaking through the majority plateau at 51%. He leads his next closest opponent, labor union official Patricia Campos-Medina (D), by a huge 45 percentage point gap as she records only 6% support. Civil Rights activist Larry Hamm trails both with a preference figure of just 5 percent.
It appears Rep. Kim has already overcome his biggest obstacles in running for the Senate and will now cruise to victory in the June Democratic primary and in the November election.
HOUSE
CA-16: It appears that all votes have finally been counted in California’s open 16th Congressional District and the long anticipated result for the second general election qualifying position has apparently ended in a flat tie. Both San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) each have an unofficial 30,249 vote tally.
If this result becomes final both men will advance into the general election against former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who long ago secured the first qualifying position. This would lead to a three-way general election among a trio of Democrats, a rarity in a top two jungle primary system. The eventual winner of this contest succeeds retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).
CA-20: The Vince Fong ballot saga is not yet over. You may remember because former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned from the House at the California candidate filing deadline, the Secretary of State disqualified Mr. Fong from running for Congress since he was already certified as a candidate for state Assembly. California election law prohibits candidates from running for multiple offices simultaneously and the withdrawal deadline had already expired.
Fong sued over the decision and the court awarded him the congressional ballot line. Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) appealed the ruling, however, and arguments will soon be heard. Therefore, though Assemblyman Fong has qualified for both the special and regular general elections for the congressional seat an adverse appellate court ruling could send this succession election into political chaos.
CO-4: The political playing field is now set for the June 25 special election to replace resigned Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Late last week the Republicans chose a caretaker candidate, that is one who will not run for the regular term, in the person of ex-local Mayor Greg Lopez. Democrats then countered in their special nominating committee with speechwriter Trisha Calvarese who is a former Bernie Sanders intern.
The 4th District is the strongest Republican seat in Colorado. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it at R+26, and former President Trump recorded a 58-39% win percentage here in 2020. Therefore, Mr. Lopez becomes a heavy favorite to win the seat in late June and serve the balance of the year.
CO-8: Colorado Republicans from the Denver suburban 8th Congressional District met in caucus and advanced state Rep. Gave Evans (R-Westminster) into the general election with 62% delegate support. The other qualifier is state Rep. Janak Joshi, but he resides all the way south in Colorado Springs, far from the 8th District.
Health insurance consultant Joe Andujo is now disqualified since he failed to reach the 10% threshold at the party convention. He was also circulating petitions to qualify, but those efforts are now discarded because he failed to reach the minimum delegate support threshold. Mr. Andujo then endorsed Rep. Evans at the convention.
Very likely, we will now see Mr. Evans advancing from Colorado’s June 25 primary election, where he will become the general election candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). The Congresswoman, first elected in 2022 from what is Colorado’s newest congressional seat, scored only 48.4% of the vote, defeating her Republican opponent by less than a full percentage point. Count on this race becoming a major national GOP offensive target.
IN-5: Indiana US Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), who announced that she would not seek a third term only to change her mind before the candidate filing deadline, has fallen into a tight race with state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville). According to a survey from the Mark it Red research organization, Rep. Spartz’s lead over Rep. Goodrich is only 33-30%.
When the Congresswoman announced her retirement, ten Republicans announced their candidacies. When Ms. Spartz returned to active campaigning in February, all ten of the candidates remained in the race with no one stepping aside for the incumbent. Therefore, this race will be decided with a plurality as the Mark it Red survey suggests. Therefore, this primary contest will be one to watch on the May 7 Indiana primary night.
NY-16: Justice Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), who unseated veteran Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, appears to be in trouble as he seeks renomination for a third term. A new Mellman Group survey (3/26-30; 400 NY-16 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the George Latimer campaign finds the challenging Westchester County Executive leading Rep. Bowman by a whopping 52-35% margin as the June 25 primary comes into view.
Rep. Bowman aligns himself with the group that calls themselves “the Squad” and comprises the far left of the Democratic Conference. Mr. Latimer, prior to his election as county executive, served in both the New York Senate and Assembly. This race is now becoming another key primary campaign as several incumbents from around the country face stiff competition in their quest for renomination.
SC-1: Earlier this winter, news was made when Dan Hanlon, the former chief of staff to South Carolina US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) resigned his position and announced he would oppose his former boss in the coming Republican primary. Just before candidate filing expired, Mr. Hanlon closed the committee he filed with the Federal Election Commission and chose not to enter the race.
Perhaps the main reason for his action is the presence of a serious opponent, former South Carolina cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton who clearly is capable to offering a credible Republican alternative to Rep. Mace. Ms. Templeton also announced that she has topped the $500,000 mark in fundraising after just eight weeks on the campaign trail.
A third contender, non-profit executive Bill Young, while not a threat to outpace either Rep. Mace or Ms. Templeton, could attract enough votes to force the leader below the 50% mark. Should that happen, the top two finishers would then advance to a June 25 runoff election to determine the nominee. This will be a primary race to watch on June 11.
GOVERNOR
Indiana: Crossroads Public Affairs, polling for the Indy Politics campaign blog released a new survey from the upcoming open Indiana Republican gubernatorial primary scheduled for May 7th. The survey (3/24-25; 500 IN likely Republican primary voters) sees US Sen. Mike Braun leading the primary field with a 33-11-11-10% margin over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, businessman Eric Doden, and former Indiana Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.
While still possessing a strong lead, Sen. Braun’s advantage has decreased since the last published poll from Emerson College that found him holding a 34-7-7-5% lead. Therefore, while the opponents collectively have shown some gain in the past three weeks, the fact that the challengers are all so closely bunched will allow Sen. Braun to capture the gubernatorial nomination even if he only attains plurality support.
STATES
New Jersey: New Jersey is one of the few remaining states where the county political parties have substantial power. What makes them strong is endorsing candidates in the primary and providing extremely favorable ballot placements to the point where opponents are listed on separate ballot pages.
Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), running for the Senate, filed suit against the practice and the federal judge this week granted him a preliminary injunction. While Mr. Kim is now becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic Senate nomination since First Lady Tammy Murphy exited the race and Sen. Bob Menendez is not seeking the party nomination, his legal move will likely create a more even playing field for down ballot races. This will probably become a major factor in changing how New Jersey primaries are run.
The judge then clarified his ruling in saying that the injunction applies only to the Democratic primary to which the plaintiff, Mr. Kim, limited his complaint.