FAA reauthorization bill still in flux with deadline looming
The Buzz on the Hill
FAA reauthorization bill still in flux with deadline looming
This week, one of the top legislative priorities for the U.S. Congress has been passing a new five-year authorization bill for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The U.S. Senate voted to open debate on the bill on Thursday, with the current authorization set to expire next Friday. However, various Senators are requesting amendments to the bill that will likely drag out the process. Senators Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and John Kennedy (R-LA) want an amendment that will restrict TSA’s ability to use facial recognition technology. Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Josh Hawley (R-MO) want to codify a policy that guarantees automatic refunds for canceled flights. Additionally, Maryland and Virginia Senators want to throw out the provision to add slots at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA). The Senate will return to the Hill next Tuesday and attempt to hammer out the final details of the package. Otherwise, they will have to pass a fourth short-term funding extension, which Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said on Thursday was a possibility.
Johnson facing another removal threat
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-GA) said on Tuesday that she would force a vote to remove U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) next week. MTG has been a constant thorn in Johnson’s side, repeatedly threatening to file a motion to vacate. This latest push to remove Johnson began after he worked with Democrats to pass a new Ukraine funding package. Johnson’s speakership has constantly been on shaky ground, largely because any member of the House can file a motion to vacate, and far-right conservatives have already used this tactic to remove former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). Democratic leadership has indicated they will save Johnson should a vote actually come up, announcing in a statement on Tuesday, "If she invokes the motion, it will not succeed." Both parties have explored revising the rules to remove a speaker, such as restricting the ability to file the motion to party leadership. But with the election around the corner, no rule is expected to come to fruition until after the next Congress is sworn in.
Biden Administration continues to push climate action
On Wednesday, the Biden Administration announced it would award $26.9 million in grants to clean energy projects around the country. The grants are part of the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant Program and will go to nine states, 27 local governments, and one tribe. The grants will support projects in low-income and rural communities to help advance energy-efficient infrastructure. “President Biden’s Investing in America agenda is equipping local governments with funds to transform clean energy plans into real actions that deliver benefits in every corner of the country,” Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement. Then, on Thursday, President Biden announced that $3 billion would be put into identifying and replacing unsafe lead pipes in an effort to expand access to clean drinking water. The EPA will invest $3 billion annually for the next three years, mainly targeting disadvantaged communities. These initiatives are part of a continuing trend for the Biden Administration in their efforts to target public health and the climate crisis.
This Week’s Takeaways
Members of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Highways and Transit held a hearing to review fleet electrification efforts by the Biden Administration. On Tuesday, the committee heard from stakeholders in the transportation industry about both the positive trends and shortcomings of the Biden Administration initiative to expand Electric Vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and electrify commercial vehicles. Some members advocated for expanding EV charging infrastructure and using federal funding to help Departments of Transportation implement more chargers to accommodate the energy transition. Other members were concerned about the slow rollout of EV chargers and thought that mandating EVs was not fair to consumers. They were also worried that zero-emission technology was not ready for broad deployment in commercial vehicles and wanted to allow for flexibility and low-emission alternatives. Overall, there was consensus that reducing emissions over the next decade was achievable. There was less agreement over whether zero emissions was attainable and if electric vehicles were the best way to get there.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson was on Capitol Hill on Tuesday to discuss NASA’s proposed 2025 budget with the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee. Administrator Nelson discussed several key initiatives for NASA, including the status of the Artemis Project and plans for exploring the South Pole of the Moon and Mars, preparations for deorbiting the International Space Station, and NASA’s commitment to expanding STEM education programs around the country. One notable announcement from Administrator Nelson was his decision to pull the plug on the Mars Sample Return project due to high costs and delays in the timeline. He said NASA was looking into alternative, cost-efficient plans to return the samples and hopes to announce a new project in the fall. He also emphasized that NASA is facing tighter budget constraints in FY24 and FY25 and hopes that in 2026, they have a more robust budget and expanded funding for exploratory projects.
Outstanding Achievements
GR congratulates Kevin Wysocki, Director of Policy at Anchorage Digital, for being named by Washingtonian Magazine as one of the 500 Most Influential People of 2024. The Washingtonian seeks to highlight experts and advocates outside the government who are playing significant roles in shaping Washington’s policy debates. Wysocki is recognized for helping “enlist bipartisan cosponsors for a bill to restrict the Securities and Exchange Commission from requiring banks to include assets held in custody as a liability.”
Preparing for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, May 7
House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets Hearing: SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process
House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials Hearing: Ensuring Safety and Reliability: Examining the Reauthorization Needs of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
House Appropriations Committee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2025 Request for the Internal Revenue Service
Wednesday, May 8
Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Hearing: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Proposed Fiscal Year 2025 Budget
House Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Hearing: Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization, Part II
Thursday, May 9
Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Hearing: Consumer Protection: Examining Fees in Financial Services and Rental Housing
The Ellis Insight
PRESIDENT
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr: Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has qualified for the 2024 general election ballot in California as the nominee of the American Independent Party. In addition to the Golden State, he has an official ballot position in Michigan and Utah. He has filed the requisite number of signatures in Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, and awaits certification in each of those states.
While Mr. Kennedy may affect the outcome in some of the aforementioned swing states, solidly blue California will not come into play. President Biden will easily carry the nation’s largest state regardless of Mr. Kennedy’s ballot presence.
SENATE
Utah: After being booed during his speech to the Republican nominating convention delegates on Saturday, Gov. Spencer Cox lost to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) by a whopping 67-33% vote. To qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, a candidate needed to attract at least 40% of the delegate vote. While the Governor did not qualify through the convention process, he had filed the necessary 28,000 valid petition signatures prior to the party assembly to guarantee his ballot position in the June 25 Republican primary.
In the Senate race, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, riding former President Trump’s endorsement that was announced just before the convention began, proved himself the delegates’ favorite with a 70-30% victory over Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo).
The vote makes Mayor Staggs the only candidate qualifying through the convention process. Rep. Curtis submitted the requisite number of petitions, so he, too, will be on the primary ballot. Joining them are a pair of others qualifying via petition, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton. Attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell short of the 28,000 signature requirement, also did not receive 40% delegate support. Therefore, he is eliminated from further competition.
In the House races, both Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) and Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) finished second to a Republican opponent but cleared the 40% threshold. Rep. Moore had previously qualified through petition, but Rep. Maloy was a “convention only” candidate. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) was renominated by acclamation.
In the open 3rd CD, the only candidate to win the delegate support is state Sen. Mike Kennedy (R-American Fork). Qualifying through petition are State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and businessman Case Lawrence. The Utah primary will be conducted on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee in all races will be favored in the general election.
HOUSE
CA-16: As expected, recounting all ballots in California’s 16th District jungle primary election did break the tie vote for the second qualifying general election ballot position. State Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) and San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian each finished the initial count with 30,249 votes.
Allies of the first place finisher, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), then paid for a recount. Neither Low nor Simitian moved for a recount because California election procedure allows all tied candidates to advance into the general election. Otherwise, it is only the two top vote-getters who compete in November.
With the recount now final, Assemblyman Low finished with an adjusted five-vote margin, meaning he will solely advance to the general election to face former Mayor Liccardo. Polling found Liccardo doing better against Low than he would in a three-way contest. This may have been the motivation for the Liccardo allies requesting and financing the recount.
CA-49: California Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-San Juan Capistrano) Orange-San Diego County district is on the borderline of competitiveness. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+5 and President Biden carried the district with a 55-43% margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks CA-49 as the 29th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. In the 2022 election, Rep. Levin defeated frequent Republican congressional candidate Brian Maryott 52.6-47.4%, which is a closer margin than President Biden’s.
Republicans, armed with what appears to be a better candidate in the ’24 election, just released an 1892 research organization poll from three weeks ago (4/9-11; 400 CA-49 likely general election voters; live interview) that finds Rep. Levin only leading business owner Matt Gunderson (R) by a scant 44-42% margin with President Biden’s image degrading to an upside down 39:56% favorable to unfavorable ratio. This, coupled with the fact that Rep. Levin only pulled 51% of the vote in the March jungle primary, suggests this race could become highly competitive in November.
FL-8: After filing for re-election, eight-term Florida U.S. Rep. Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) announced that he is withdrawing from the race. Immediately, and obviously after receiving a tip from the Congressman, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) filed his own federal campaign committee just before candidate filing closed.
Since Florida does not extend the filing time when the incumbent does not seek re-election, Mr. Haridopolos is clearly the front runner to succeed the 32-year office holder. In addition to his 16 years in Congress, Rep. Posey served another 16 years in the legislature, eight in each house.
Attorney Joe Babits and technology company executive John Hearton, both viewed as minor candidates, are the only other individuals to have declared their candidacies. For the Democrats, West Melbourne City Councilman Don McDow is favored for the party nomination over attorney Sandy Kennedy.
Louisiana: Bayou State plaintiffs challenging Louisiana’s new congressional map that created a second majority minority district that stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport received a favorable ruling from the three judge federal panel hearing the lawsuit. The decision means the new congressional map is nullified. The judicial panel will now consider replacement maps. The plaintiffs argued the district was drawn only on racial criteria in violation of the U.S. Constitution and the court majority agreed.
The ruling is likely to help Republicans, and particularly Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) whose GOP favorable 6th District was reconfigured as a majority minority seat designed to elect an African American Democrat. The Secretary of State informed the court that the 2024 districts must be in place by May 15 to allow the officials to properly administer the election. Therefore, a quick remedy decision will soon follow.
MI-8: The open race to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) got smaller this week. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D) ended his congressional bid after filing for the seat. The Democratic establishment is coalescing around state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and this, in addition to poor fundraising totals, was relegating Mayor Neeley to the second tier of contenders.
Therefore, the Democratic field has winnowed to Sen. Rivet, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier. On the Republican side, two-time congressional nominee and former television anchor Paul Junge, state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, retired Dow Corporation executive Mary Draves, and frequent candidate Anthony Hudson are competing for the nomination.
MT-2: Guidant Polling & Strategy just released the results of their recent Montana Republican primary congressional poll (4/14-17; 400 MT-2 likely Republican primary voters). The data find State Auditor Troy Downing (R) leading former Congressman Denny Rehberg and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, 38-26-10%.
Ex-Rep. Rehberg, who represented the at-large district for twelve years after serving six years as Lt. Governor, is being heavily outspent. Mr. Downing, through March 31, had spent just over $630,000 compared to only $7,300 for Mr. Rehberg. The former Congressman then infused his own campaign treasury with a loan of $300,000. The winner of the June 4 primary election will succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana seat.
NY-26: As expected, state Senator Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily scored a special election victory Tuesday night to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Mr. Kennedy received 75% of the vote in the heavily Democratic seat that Republicans basically conceded. The latter party’s candidate, West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson, reported raising only $35,000 in the pre-election Federal Election Commission disclosure report.
The Kennedy victory means the House party division will move to 217R – 213D with five vacancies (4R – 1D). The 26th District encompasses the Buffalo metropolitan area including parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.
NC-13: Attorney Kelly Daughtry (R), who placed first in the 14-candidate 13th District Republican primary on March 5, has now dropped out of the race. Ms. Daughtry indicated her initial internal polling suggested she led the runoff against former federal prosecutor Brad Knott, but the candidate said when former President Trump endorsed her opponent, the race’s entire political flow changed.
Saying that Trump’s “involvement has foreclosed her path to victory,” Ms. Daughtry announced yesterday that she is ending her campaign. This means that Mr. Knott will be effectively unopposed in the May 14 Republican runoff and is a lock to convert the newly redistricted seat to the GOP column in November.
TX-34: In 2022, due to the Texas redistricting map, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) were forced to run against each other in the new Brownsville-McAllen anchored 34th District. In November of that year, Rep. Gonzalez scored a 53-44% victory in the new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+17.
With the political climate changing on the Texas-Mexico border, this district will become more competitive during this election cycle. A new 1892 polling organization survey (4/11-13; 400 TX-34 likely general election voters; live interview) confirms the final result is likely to be closer in 2024. The Gonzalez-Flores ballot test only breaks 48-45% in Democrat’s favor, suggesting the campaign could evolve into a toss-up.
GOVERNOR
Delaware: Two-term Delaware Gov. John Carney (D), who is ineligible under the state’s election law from seeking a third term, instead announced that he will run for Mayor of Wilmington. Should Gov. Carney win the open municipal post – he’ll be favored to top City Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter (D) – he would become at least the third Governor to later become a Mayor.
Gov. Carney would join former Maryland Governor Ted McKeldin (R) who was elected the state’s chief executive in the 1950s and then return as Mayor of Baltimore in the 1960s. Gov. Jerry Brown was elected Mayor of Oakland after his first stint as Governor of California. He would then return to the Governorship and eventually serve 16 non-consecutive years as the state’s chief executive.
West Virginia: The polling in the open West Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary has been erratic for several months. After eight consecutive polls showed Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the race in a wide range between one and 19 percentage points, a new NMB Research survey (for West Virginia’s Future PAC; 4/20-24; 500 WV likely Republican primary voters) finds former Delegate Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), now assuming the lead.
The ballot test projects a 31-23% margin for the top two candidates with businessman Chris Miller, son of U.S. Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), attracting a 14% preference factor, and Secretary of State Mac Warner right behind at 13% support. The West Virginia’s Future PAC is an organization supporting Mr. Capito. The poll comes on the heels of Gov. Jim Justice (R) endorsing the former Delegate. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14.