House Republicans passed their budget resolution

The Golden Apple: March 3, 2025

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  Last week, following a lengthy vote on the floor, House Republicans passed their budget resolution, setting up a challenging reconciliation process in the coming week.  Speaker Mike Johnson managed to hold his conference together, losing only one Republican vote.  But with moderate Republicans voicing concern over deep cuts to social spending programs and fiscal conservatives opposed to debt increases, he has his work cut out for him.  Because while the budget resolution laid out dollar amounts for cuts, it did not identify which specific programs would lose funding.  The reconciliation text will lay those changes out with specificity, leaving more room for individual lawmakers to push back. But with the budget vote behind us, attention in Washington will primarily turn to the March 14th deadline to extend government spending. 

Financial Services and Banking Updates

House Financial Services Committee Examines Monetary Policy: In a hearing tomorrow, the members of the Financial Services Committee will review the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the factors driving the recent high inflation period.  A series of think tank witnesses will provide commentary.

Financial Services to Mark Up China Bills: On Wednesday, the Financial Services Committee will hold its first markup of the Congress, with the bulk of the legislation focused on China, its influence on foreign policy, and the flow of fentanyl.  Also on the list is a resolution to disapprove the CFPB’s overdraft rule, which has been a high priority for Republicans in Congress and interested industry stakeholders.  This is the first to move on the list of a number CFPB rules that are being targeted for CRA.

Treasury Halts Beneficial Ownership Reporting: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Sunday night that the department would not enforce penalties or fines for beneficial ownership reporting requirements against any U.S. citizens or domestic reporting companies under the Corporate Transparency Act.  Bessent further stated that the agency would be undertaking a rulemaking to narrow the scope of beneficial ownership reporting requirements to foreign companies only.  The Corporate Transparency passed as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in 2021 and sought to discourage the use of anonymous shell companies as method to disguise the movement of illicit funds, by requiring corporations and similar entities to disclose information about their beneficial owners to FinCEN.

Stablecoin Headed to Markup: Last week, we outlined the varying approaches to legislation creating a regulatory framework for Stablecoins.  The Senate Banking Committee is working to mark up their version of the legislation as soon as next week, and Senator Haggerty has been soliciting industry feedback on the latest text.  This news comes as President Trump has also announced his intent to create a United States “crypto reserve,” which has bumped the value of several digital coins.

Congressional Updates

March 14th Spending Deadline Approaches: This is an update with no real update.  Although lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have expressed desire for a bipartisan funding deal, it would appear that both sides are currently at a standoff.  Speaker Mike Johnson has announced that he would like to pass a clean funding extension through September, with a goal of implementing deeper cuts to government agencies at a later time.  Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has emphasized preserving programs like Social Security and Medicare, and added that Democratic leadership on the Appropriations Committee have not received Republican outreach.  Senate appropriators have voiced similar hopes to reach a deal, but without assurances on either side.  Stay tuned this week.

Administration Updates

SOTU Tuesday: Tomorrow, President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress, his first of this second term in office.  Pundits expect Trump to focus on his efforts to restructure the government via DOGE, his efforts to reduce illegal immigration, and tariffs, many of which have already been imposed. For those wanting to tune in, his speech is set to begin at 9pm Eastern.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Arkansas:  Sen. Tom Cotton (R), originally elected to the Senate in 2014 after serving one term in the House, announced that he will run for re-election next year.  The decision is not surprising, and Sen. Cotton is not expected to have major primary or general election opposition.

Iowa:  Former Iowa state Senator Jim Carlin announced that he will challenge Sen. Joni Ernst in next year’s Republican primary.  Mr. Carlin served both in the Iowa House and Senate but launched a very ineffective primary run against Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) in 2022.  He lost by a landslide 73-27% vote.  His chances against Sen. Ernst aren’t much better.  Also in the Republican Senate primary is podcast host and Navy veteran Joshua Smith.

Minnesota:  Governor and 2024 Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz (D) has reportedly made the decision not to seek the open US Senate seat, but could still run for re-election.  Though many are considering the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the only officially announced candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).  Freshman Rep. Kelly Morrison (D-Wayzata) is now saying that she will not run for the Senate.

The next major Minnesota figure to decide whether to enter the race is US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) who reportedly was waiting for Walz to make a decision.  Without the Governor in the Senate race, the odds of Rep. Craig becoming a statewide candidate are now greatly enhanced.

HOUSE

AZ-1:  Dr. Amish Shah (D), a former state Representative who held US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) to a 52-48% victory margin last November says he will return to seek a re-match in 2026. 

Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio (D) has already announced his 1st District congressional candidacy.  Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who placed a close third in the 2024 First District Democratic primary, is viewed as a possible candidate as is National Guardsman Jimmy McCain (D), the son of the late Senator John McCain (R). The 2026 AZ-1 race will again be highly competitive. 

AZ-2:  Former Navajo Nation president Jonathan Nez (D) whose 55-45% loss to US Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) was closer than expected in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15, announced that he will return to run again in 2026.  Mr. Nez raising over $5.4 million put him on the political map.  This will be regarded as a much more competitive race in 2026.

MI-10:  Army veteran, local law enforcement officer, and former state House of Representatives candidate Alex Hawkins (D) announces that he will run for what is likely an open and politically marginal Detroit suburban 10th District next year as will two-time Democratic nominee Carl Marlinga. 

It is widely believed that two-term Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) will enter the open Governor’s race where polling casts him with a wide lead for the Republican nomination.  Especially if Rep. James does not seek re-election, MI-10 becomes a top Democratic national conversion target.

NY-17:  More activity is occurring in New York’s Rockland and Westchester Counties anchored 17th Congressional District where two-term incumbent Republican Mike Lawler is expected to run for Governor. 

Last week, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson (D) announced her candidacy, and this week former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D), who lost 52-46% against Rep. Lawler in November, endorsed Ms. Davidson.  There had been speculation that Mr. Jones would run again, but his early endorsement of Ms. Davidson indicates that he will not be a congressional candidate in 2026. 

New York’s 17th CD will be a top national Democratic conversion opportunity particularly in an open seat situation.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+7.

PA-7:  Last week, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure (D) announced he would not seek re-election to his local post and this week declares his congressional candidacy.  He will enter the Democratic nomination battle to face freshman US Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie). 

The new Congressman unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November.  Some speculation remains that Ms. Wild may return in an attempt to reclaim the seat she lost in November. 

The 7th District, which includes all of Northampton, Lehigh, and Carbon Counties and a small part of Monroe County, is politically marginal.  We can expect another close election here in 2026 irrespective of who eventually becomes the Democratic nominee.

GOVERNOR

Arizona:  Noble Predictive Insights released a new survey of the open Republican gubernatorial field, and the results indicate that the early cycle is a free-for-all.  The poll (2/11-13; 374 AZ likely Republican primary voters; opt-in online panel) sees the top three candidates all hovering just below 15% support.  Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) and conservative activist Charlie Kirk are tied with 14% apiece. 

Businesswoman and former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, who has President Trump’s endorsement, follows with 11% preference.  Only Rep. Biggs and Ms. Robson are announced gubernatorial candidates.

Colorado:  Term-limited Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D) may not enter the open Governor’s campaign, as originally expected.  Apparently, she may run for the open Attorney General position instead, according to an analysis from The Down Ballot political blog columnists.  Incumbent Attorney General Phil Weiser (D), also term-limited in his position, is running for Governor because incumbent Jared Polis (D) is likewise ineligible to seek re-election. 

Florida:  Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) officially kicked off his gubernatorial campaign, and he could be in the driver’s seat.  Despite Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ wife Casey potentially becoming a 2026 gubernatorial candidate, President Trump still forged ahead and officially endorsed Mr. Donalds in next year’s open Republican gubernatorial primary. 

The move suggests the presidential rift between Messrs. Trump and DeSantis has still not completely healed since the Governor challenged the President in the 2024 Republican primary.  Therefore, the President decided to support his long time loyal backer, Rep. Donalds. The eventual Republican nominee will begin the general election with a decided advantage.  Gov. DeSantis cannot seek a third term under Florida election law.

New Mexico:  Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima (D) last week indicated he was considering running for Governor, and this week filed a gubernatorial exploratory committee.  The favorite for the Democratic nomination is former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland.  Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.  The eventual Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in an open general election.

New Jersey:  A KA Consulting survey conducted for the Kitchen Table Conservatives super PAC found former Assemblyman and 2021 Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli leading conservative radio host Bill Spadea 42-13% in this year’s June 10th New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary.

The survey, administered by GOP pollster and former Trump White House advisor Kellyanne Conway, shows three other candidates in the low single digits while 35% are undecided.  A January Emerson College poll gave Ciattarelli a much smaller 26-13% lead on Spadea, with 47% of primary voters saying they had yet to make up their minds. 

Six candidates, including two US House members and three local Mayors, are vying for the Democratic nomination.  Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New York:  Lt. Governor and former Congressman Antonio Delagado (D) announced this week that he will resign his statewide position.  This lends further credence to the rumor that Mr. Delgado will soon launch a Democratic primary challenge to the woman who appointed him Lt. Governor, incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul.  Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) has also been analyzing his chances of opposing the Governor in the party primary. 

Both men entering the race, however, will likely divide the anti-Hochul vote, allowing her to probably win with only a small plurality of voters.  Such a nomination fight and finish would likely give the ensuing Republican nominee, quite possibly US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), an enhanced chance of potentially pulling an upset in the 2026 general election.

Ohio:  Entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) officially launched his Ohio gubernatorial campaign this week and President Trump issued an endorsement of his once former opponent.  Three early Republican primary polls found Mr. Ramaswamy holding big leads particularly if he were to win the Trump endorsement.

Public Policy Polling (2/19-20; 642 OH likely general election voters; live interview & text) tested the Ohio general electorate and the data organization found Mr. Ramaswamy topping former Congressman, 2020 presidential candidate, and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan, 48 -42%.  Against former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D), however, Mr. Ramaswamy falls into a basic dead heat, trailing 44-45%. 

The PPP poll found Mr. Ramaswamy holding a 41:38 positive favorability index, while President Trump recorded 53:43%.  Gov. Mike DeWine (R), however, was the only tested figure to record an upside-down index: 34:46%.  Ms. Acton posted a 31:27% ratio, and Mr. Ryan a similar 31:26% positive to negative rating.

Virginia:  The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, which has been known in the past for releasing certain unusual survey results that were later proven as anomalies, fielded their study of 690 likely Virginia general election voters over the February 17-20 period.  The Roanoke ballot test sees former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears (R) by a 39-24% spread, which appears to underestimate not only Ms. Sears’ support, but also Ms. Spanberger’s.

Furthermore, their ballot test results are inconsistent with the other five Virginia Governor polls conducted and publicized since the 2024 election.  The latter surveys, from five different pollsters, cast Spanberger and Sears in a dead heat (co/efficient survey research firm), Spanberger plus 1 (Emerson College), plus 3 (Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy), plus 5 (Christopher Newport University), and Spanberger plus 10 (Virginia Commonwealth University). 

Two former state legislators, ex-Delegate Dave LaRock and previous state Senator Amanda Chase, both say they will enter the Republican gubernatorial primary to oppose Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears from her political right.  Their challenge should not thwart Ms. Sears’ prospects to win the party nomination, however.

STATE AND LOCAL

Buffalo, NY:  State Sen. Sean Ryan (D) won the Erie County Democratic Party endorsement over Acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon during the week.  Former Mayor Byron Brown (D), who served 18 years in the position, resigned to become president and CEO of the Western Regional Off-Track Betting organization.  The party endorsement matters in New York, and their help possibly gives Sen. Ryan the inside track toward winning this year’s mayoral election.

Detroit:  Prominent Detroit pastor Solomon Kinloch (D) this week announced his mayoral candidacy, while former state House Speaker Joe Tate (D) has decided not to run. 

A Douglas Fulmer & Associates poll posts City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) to a firm lead with 34% preference.  Ex-police chief James Craig (R) outpaces former City Council President Saunteel Jenkins 20-12% for second position.  Mr. Craig is not yet a candidate.  Pastor Kinloch is a distant fourth with an initial 5% preference factor.  Three-term incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan is running for Governor as an Independent.