Border Security Legislation Fails, but Foreign Aid Package Still Working Through Senate

Feb 9

The Buzz on the Hill

Border Security Legislation Fails, but Foreign Aid Package Still Working Through Senate
The bipartisan border security package was finally unveiled this week, but its lifespan proved to be short. The legislation failed after just four Republicans voted in support of the bill on Wednesday, as many of the GOP followed presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump’s calls to reject the deal. However, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is working to pass a supplemental aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan that was initially attached to the border bill. The standalone legislation passed a procedural motion in the Senate by a vote of 67-32. The Senate is scheduled to work through the weekend to pass the bill. The White House has said it supports the “Plan B Bill,” but as is becoming a common theme, it’s far less certain what the House will do.

The House Has Another Chaotic Week
Speaking of the House, they had another frenetic week with very little getting accomplished. On Tuesday night, they failed to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas over his role in the ongoing border crisis. While the vote was expected to pass along party lines, three Republican holdouts - Reps. Tom McClintock (R-CA), Ken Buck (R-CO), and Mike Gallagher (R-WI) voted against impeachment and forced a 215-215 tie. With the writing on the wall, Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) switched his vote to go against the measure - a procedural move allowing for a revote at a later date. Then, minutes after the failed impeachment, Speaker Mike Johnson was unable to pass a bill to provide military aid to Israel. The bill left out humanitarian support for Gaza and was opposed by the House Democratic leadership. The House voted 250-180 in favor of the package, but it came up short of the 2/3 majority needed under suspension of the rules.

These challenges for Speaker Johnson were another reminder of the difficulties of legislating with a razor-thin majority.

FAA Authorization Approaching Takeoff
This week, aviation took center stage in the nation’s capital. On Wednesday, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Aviation held a hearing with FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker. Representatives questioned Whitaker on numerous issues, including the FAA’s response to the January 5 Boeing incident, how the administration handles pilot and air traffic controller shortages, and how they are updating airport infrastructure. Then, on Thursday, the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation held a markup hearing on the long-awaited FAA Reauthorization Act, which would secure over $100 billion to keep the FAA funded through 2028. The bill was reported favorably out of committee, although the Republican-led provision to raise the pilot retirement age from 65 to 67 failed.

This Week’s Takeaways

On Thursday, oral arguments were heard in Trump v. Anderson, the U.S. Supreme Court case considering whether states can remove former President Donald Trump from the ballot based on the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. While a final decision has not been issued, it appears from the oral argument that the Court may overturn the Colorado Supreme Court’s earlier decision to remove him from the ballot. Trump still faces many legal battles in the coming months.

Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen was on the hill this week to give the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) annual report to Congress. Sec. Yellen highlighted FSOC’s 2024 priorities, including crypto and AI regulations, banking capital legislation, hedge funds and money markets, bolstering protections against cybersecurity and fraud, and advancing climate-related investments. She faced questions from the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees about the current state of the economy and FSOC’s handling of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse last March. Sec. Yellen also touted the financial achievements of the Biden Administration, including lowering unemployment, raising wages, reducing inflation, and restoring consumer confidence.

On Friday, the Biden administration unveiled plans to launch the National Semiconductor Technology Center, a $5 billion semiconductor research facility. The center will expand chip design and innovation and bolster the workforce. The House Select Committee on the CCP had expressed concern about the U.S. becoming too reliant on Chinese chips. This project and the CHIPS Act in 2022 are direct countermeasures taken by the Biden administration to keep the U.S. at the forefront of semiconductor production and remain competitive with China. The consortium plans to open funding applications for research grants in March.

Outstanding Achievements

On Tuesday, GrayRobinson facilitated a briefing between Space Florida’s new President and CEO, Colonel Rob Long, and Florida congressional staff. Col. Long championed Florida's growing space economy and promoted proposals to expand Florida and America’s space infrastructure. GrayRobinson was pleased to welcome Congressman Bill Posey and Congressman Neal Dunn to the event; both had exciting ideas to expand investment into space.

Preparing for the Week Ahead

Wednesday, February 14

House Financial Services Committee Hearing on "Oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI)."
House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Hearing on "Disaster Readiness: Examining the Propriety of the Expanded Use of FEMA Resources."

Thursday, February 15

House Ways and Means Committee Hearing with Commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service Daniel Werfel.
House Financial Services Committee Hearing on "Crypto Crime in Context Part II: Examining Approaches to Combat Illicit Activity."
House Financial Services Committee Hearing titled "Lender of Last Resort: Issues with the Fed Discount Window and Emergency Lending."
House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Hearing on "Implementation of Buy America Provisions: Stakeholder Perspectives."

Additional Items of Interest

There will be a Special Election in NY-3 on Tuesday to replace the seat previously held by George Santos.
The House is expected to hold a revote on the Sec. Mayorkas impeachment on Tuesday as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise returns to D.C. next week.

The Ellis Insight

PRESIDENT

Nevada: Former President Donald Trump at least indirectly won a primary this week without his name even appearing on the ballot. In the Nevada Republican election, the names of former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) were present, along with the option, “None of These Candidates,” a voting choice unique to Nevada elections. The candidate filing deadline was in October, thus explaining why Messrs. Pence and Scott, though now withdrawn from the presidential campaign, are still on the Silver State ballot.

Looking at the new Nevada system, Republicans held what is commonly referred to as a “beauty contest” primary, meaning an election that does not apportion delegates from the popular vote totals. An accompanying caucus system, which is the Republican delegate apportioning mechanism, was held two days later and Mr. Trump swept the 26 available delegate votes. Under the party rules, candidates could enter the primary or the caucuses, but not both.

For the Democrats, President Biden easily won the party primary with approximately 89% of the vote, defeating author Marianne Williamson (3%) and “None of These Candidates” (6%). Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) was not on the ballot because he became a candidate after the state’s filing deadline had closed. Ms. Williamson ended her campaign soon after the Nevada primary.

South Carolina: President Joe Biden claimed the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary capturing an almost unanimous vote share. Mr. Biden recorded a 97% support figure over author Marianne Williamson (2.1%) and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips (1.7%). Not surprisingly, the President swept all 55 of the state’s national Democratic delegate votes and placed first in each of the Palmetto State’s 46 counties.

Turnout, however, was extremely low with only about 131,000 ballots being cast. The unofficial count represents just 24% of the number of voters when compared to the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary. The President was virtually unopposed in terms of the campaign efforts from Williamson and Phillips; therefore, it is not surprising to see a low participation rate.

Marianne Williamson: After placing behind the “None of These Candidates” ballot line in the Nevada primary, Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson suspended her national campaign reducing the field to President Biden and U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). With the President recording a mean average of 93% in the last two primaries, it is a foregone conclusion that Mr. Biden will clinch the Democratic nomination no matter how long Mr. Phillips remains an active candidate.

SENATE

Missouri: Emerson College released the first Missouri polling results of the new year. In the state’s U.S. Senate campaign, the Emerson poll (1/23-28; 1,830 MO registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) yields Sen. Josh Hawley (R) a 43-30% lead over attorney and Afghan/Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce (D).

In 2022, Mr. Kunce ran for the Senate and performed well on the fundraising circuit, raising $5.7 million, but lost the Democratic nomination to philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine, who was a late entry into the race. He now returns in a better position to win the party nomination and has already almost equaled his 2022 fundraising total but remains a severe underdog to Sen. Hawley in a state where the Biden national campaign is sure to concede.

Therefore, considering Sen. Hawley’s incumbency and the political winds blowing against the Democrats in the Show Me State, this race is not likely to become a battleground Senate contest.

New Jersey: New Jersey based Fairleigh Dickinson University went into the field to test the Garden State’s Democratic electorate pertaining to the upcoming U.S. Senate race. The survey (Braun Research conducting; 1/21-28; 504 NJ likely Democratic primary voters; live interview and text) projects U.S. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) opening a double-digit lead over New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy of 32-20%, while indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez outpaces little known labor union official Patricia Campos-Medina by only a single point, as he again polls under 10%.

According to the just-released Federal Election Commission year-end campaign finance reports, both Rep. Kim and Ms. Murphy held $2.7 million cash-on-hand at the end of 2023. Largely due to funds raised before being indicted, Sen. Menendez has just over $6.1 million in his campaign account. The New Jersey primary is June 4. At this point, Sen. Menendez maintains that he is running for re-election, but the final decision will likely be made just before the March 25 candidate filing deadline.

Pennsylvania: Franklin and Marshall College, a regular Pennsylvania pollster, just released their latest statewide research iteration. The survey (1/17-28; 1,006 PA registered voters; live interview) sees Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) again posting a sizable lead over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). The ballot test gives Sen. Casey a 12-point advantage, 47-35%. This counters the Susquehanna Polling and Research findings in their Pennsylvania poll, taken partially within the same sampling period, that showed only a four-point separation between candidates.

The F&M result is more consistent with other released polls since mid-December. The Bullfinch Group saw a 15-point Casey margin, while Quinnipiac University projected a ten-point split. The Pennsylvania Senate race could become a top-tier contest assuming the presidential race here remains close in polling. In both the presidential and Senate contests, however, the Democratic candidate maintains the edge.

HOUSE

AZ-8: Former Republican U.S. Senate nominee Blake Masters, now running to replace retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, released the results of his internal Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll (1/25-28; 400 AZ-8 likely Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test finds Mr. Masters, who lost 51-46% to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in the last election, tied with 2022 Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh (R), who lost his own statewide race by a razor-thin 280 votes. Both attract a 24% support figure.

Also this week, Waseem Hamadeh announced that he is contributing $1 million to a Super PAC to help his brother’s campaign. The poll and financial activity suggest that this primary contest will be hard fought all the way through the August 6 primary election. A dozen Republicans have announced their candidacies, including former U.S. Rep. Trent Franks, but Messrs. Masters and Hamadeh are jumping out to the fastest starts. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-8 as R+22, so the eventual Republican nominee becomes the favorite in the general election.

IN-5: In early 2023, Indiana sophomore U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) became the session’s first lame duck House member when announcing that she would not seek a third term in order to spend more time with her two daughters who are entering their teenage years. This week, she reversed course and now becomes the first of the burgeoning departing group of members to “unretire.”

The leading candidate before Rep. Spartz returned to campaign action, state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville), announced that he is continuing his campaign and will work to deny Rep. Spartz renomination. Two other candidates, former congressional aide Max Engling and businessman Raju Chinthala, are also continuing their efforts. This race now transforms into a serious plurality Republican primary that will be decided on May 7.

Louisiana: It appeared the second round of Louisiana redistricting had been completed until a group of “non-African Americans” filed a racial gerrymandering lawsuit against the new plan saying the reconfigured 6th District was drawn only for racial purposes, something the Constitution disallows. A similarly configured district that stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, as does the new 6th District, was declared a racial gerrymander in 1994, which forced a redraw.

Now, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) weighed in on “X” saying “there are multiple other map options that are legally compliant and do not require the unnecessary surrender of a Republican seat in Congress." The new 6th District virtually cuts Mr. Johnson’s 4th District into two parts, driving through the middle of the Speaker’s current territory in order to annex the black dominated precincts in Shreveport.

MI-13: In 2022, then-Detroit state Representative Shri Thanedar won an eight-person Democratic congressional primary with 28% of the vote to claim his seat in the U.S. House. In doing so, Mr. Thanedar self-financed his effort to the tune of $9.1 million.

In October, Rep. Thanedar’s top 2022 challenger, former state Senator Adam Hollier, announced that he would return for a Democratic primary rematch. This week, another major Detroit political figure joined the primary race. Detroit City Councilmember and former state House Minority Leader Mary Waters filed a congressional campaign committee with the FEC. She did not run in 2022.

Another potential entry is two-time former candidate John Conyers, III, the son of the late Congressman John Conyers (D-Detroit) who held the seat from his initial election in 1964 to his resignation from the House in 2017.

NJ-7: Former State Department official Jason Blazakis (D) became the latest 7th District Democratic candidate to end his campaign against freshman Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) even before it officially started. In October, Roselle Park Mayor Joseph Signorello (D) ended his congressional quest. In late January, Summit Councilman Greg Vartan (D) withdrew.

The action leaves former Working Families Party state executive director Sue Altman as the lone Democratic candidate. Expect Democratic Party leaders to make another push to recruit former Congressman Tom Malinowski into the race. Rep. Kean unseated Mr. Malinowski in 2022, after the incumbent barely survived a close call against him in 2020. Mr. Malinowski, a former State Department and National Security Council official, had been considering entering the U.S. Senate race, but ultimately decided not to run.

NC-6: Diversified Research, polling for the Mark Walker campaign (1/29-30; 300 NC-6 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), finds the former Congressman leading his four credible opponents as the candidates turn toward the March 5 North Carolina primary. Mr. Walker represented a similar 6th District from 2015-2021 until being redistricted out of his seat.

The winner of the March 5 primary will also claim the November election because Democrats did not even file a candidate in this race. Incumbent Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) is not seeking re-election in the heavily Republican post-redistricting crafted seat. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.6R - 41.3D partisan lean for the new 6th CD.

According to the Diversified poll, Mr. Walker posts a 21-10-9-7-2% lead over 2022 District 13 candidate Bo Hines, 2022 District 6 nominee Christian Castelli, High Point Mayor Jay Wagner, and legislative advocate Addison McDowell who carries former President Trump’s endorsement. The candidates all report favorable name identification. This poll suggests while Mr. Walker has a clear lead, his advantage is not insurmountable. A runoff will occur here if no candidate breaks the 30% support threshold.

WA-5: Another House member has joined the retirement list. Ten-term Washington U.S. Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Spokane), the House Energy & Commerce Committee chair, announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election later this year. In a long statement that thanked and extolled the virtues of her eastern Washington constituents, Ms. McMorris Rodgers formally announced her political intentions.

The open seat count now returns to 47, accounting for Rep. McMorris Rodgers retiring and Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) changing her mind about not seeking re-election. Within the group, 24 Democrats are not running for another House term, and the Republican number now grows to 22. The new Alabama redistricting plan creates an open seat that begins in Montgomery and stretches to Mobile.

Renee Leta