A New Era of Politics

We enter this week in what is seemingly a new era of politics, altered permanently by the assassination attempt on former President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump.  Amid the shock and outrage expressed across the political spectrum, we are certain that every aspect of this election landscape has shifted.  While a heated contest remains, both parties have called for unity, a dialing down of the rhetoric, and have condemned political violence as having no place in civilized society. 

Republicans will spend their week in Wisconsin, as the Convention kicks off today and runs through Thursday.  Though little intrigue remains as to who the Republican Party will put at the top of their ticket, the upcoming ratification will require Mr. Trump to finally announce his vice presidential pick.  And, of course, the event takes on a new tenor as speakers and participants alike reframe their new reality around this weekend’s events.   

Though it is the Republicans who are officially selecting their nominee this week, President Joe Biden struggled last week with his own challenges.  The concerns sparked by his debate performance over 2 weeks ago have not been allayed, and though Democratic lawmakers seem united in their desire for unison, they have not yet agreed on much else.  Last week brought a steady drip of members calling upon the President to step aside, though the White House also stepped up its engagement with the Hill and scored the support of key constituencies like the CBC.  Biden, for his part, remains steadfastly committed to continuing his campaign. 

And, of course, the full effect of Saturday’s events are yet to be understood.  Some in the Democratic party feel that the shifted focus away from President Biden’s struggles have given the campaign the breathing room it needed to hang on, while others argue that a new candidate is needed more urgently than ever.  Underlying all of this is the question of what process one would even use to replace a nominee who has already secured a substantial share of delegates—more on that below from Jim Ellis.

Financial Services and Banking Updates

The House and Senate are both out, so there is no committee activity this week.

Goldsmith Romero’s FDIC Pitch

Christy Goldsmith Romero, the nominee to replace the FDIC’s Marty Gruenberg, fielded the majority of the questions at last Thursday’s nomination hearing, touting her SIGTARP experience and vowing to improve the agency’s workplace atmosphere.  When asked about Fed Chair Powell’s push for bank regulators to re-propose the Basel III Endgame rules dictating bank capital standards, the nominee stopped short of a commitment to re-propose, though strongly implied her likely support. Goldsmith Romero clarified that having not seen the changes made thus far, this would be a necessary step ahead of any action.  We previously noted the Committee’s push for a vote to advance the nomination in late July; Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown repeated his desire for a quick vote out of Committee. 

Powell Cites Easing Inflation, but Cooling Labor Market

Appearing last week before the Senate on Tuesday and the House on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified that inflation has “eased notably” but, at 2.6 percent, still sits above the Committee’s long-term goal of 2 percent.  Interest rates remained top of mind for lawmakers on both sides of the aisle following the most substantial inflation spike in decades, but Powell refused to provide any signals on timing, adding in his written testimony that action taken “too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”  Chair Powell has an economic “soft landing” in his sights as the Fed continues to reduce its securities holdings in a process referred to as quantitative tightening (QT).  Powell described this monetary policy stance as “helping to bring demand and supply conditions into better balance” and aid in inflation reduction.

Congressional Updates

As mentioned above, the House and Senate are next week, and are scheduled to return for the two weeks following before breaking for August recess. 

Appropriations, Cont.

It was a busy week for members of both appropriations committees.  In the House, all 12 bills have now passed out of Committee, after it marked up 6 bills last week.  All 6 of the bills advanced along party lines.  Republican House appropriators, however, suffered a setback when the Legislative Branch spending bill failed in a 205-213 vote before the full House.  Ten Republicans joined Democrats in opposing the bill.  The bill contained language freezing members’ salaries for another year, which earned objections from some, though the legislation bolstered spending in other areas.  The bill’s failure to progress signals a possible bumpy road for Chairman Tom Cole, who is pushing for consideration of all 12 spending bills before August.  However, the Senate’s version of the legislative funding bill similarly restricts member pay and passed unanimously out of Committee.  Senate Appropriations, chaired by Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) has now advanced 5 of 12 bills out of Committee. 

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

PRESIDENT

President Biden:  While pressure continues to mount on President Biden to withdraw from his re-election candidacy, some still believe there is a way to change the rules at the Democratic National Convention to allow a free vote of the delegates.  Doing so is highly unlikely, however, because Biden’s total delegate vote includes 1,581 individuals not bound by party rules but rather state law.  Therefore, those delegates will not be free. 

To win the party nomination, a candidate must have 1,968 votes.  This means from the remaining delegates, the President would need only to keep 387 of the “freed” 2,368 delegates who are already pledged to vote for him.  This factors into just 16.3% of the non-state law bound delegates. 

The party would also have the option of changing the convention rules to allow the Super Delegates to vote on the first ballot, something they cannot currently do.  The Super Delegates are officially called PLEO (Party Leader Elected Official) votes.  There are 747 of these individuals.  To add them, however, the non-PLEO delegates would have to vote to dilute their own power.  It is unlikely a majority of the non-PLEO delegates will vote in such a manner even if this unlikely choice is presented.

Vice President Harris:  As many Democrats and media elites attempt to convince President Biden to withdraw from the race, we are beginning to see Trump-Harris polls surfacing.  So far, the polling shows mixed results. 

The new Ipsos poll for ABC News/Washington Post (7/5-9; 2,041 US adults; online) finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Joe Biden 49-47%, but Emerson College (7/7-8; 1,370 US registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Donald Trump holding a six point lead over Ms. Harris, 49-43%.   YouGov, for The Economist magazine (7/7-9; 1,443 US registered voters; online), sees Mr. Trump posting a four point, 42-38%, edge.  Therefore, the idea that Ms. Harris is a stronger opponent for Mr. Trump than President Biden has yet to be proven.

Colorado:  The Colorado Libertarian Party’s plan to replace the Libertarian national nominee, Chase Oliver, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on their state ballot has been thwarted.  The national office has already sent the official nomination papers to the Colorado Secretary of State designating Mr. Oliver as the party’s nominee. 

Colorado authorities have declared the form, signed by the national Libertarian Party Secretary, as legal and valid.  Therefore, it will be Mr. Oliver, and not Mr. Kennedy, who will appear as the Libertarian nominee on the Colorado ballot in November.   

National Polls:  Emerson College, after previously releasing their swing state results, this week publicized their latest national data (7/7-8; 1,370 US registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) that tested former President Donald Trump against President Biden, and then individually opposite other supposed potential replacement presidential nominees.

Paired with President Biden in the head-to-head ballot test, Mr. Trump posts a 46-43% advantage.  Opposite California Governor Gavin Newsom, the Trump advantage is 48-40%,   and it extends to 48-38% if Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) were his opponent. 

Once again, we see further evidence that despite the negative talk surrounding President Biden since the initial presidential debate, he still appears to be the Democrats’ strongest option.

Swing State Polling:  Bloomberg News, partnering with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data in the seven key swing states during the 4th of July holiday break. 

Morning Consult conducted the surveys in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The survey period was completed during the July 1-5 time frame.  The sampling universe in each state spanned from a low of 452 registered voters (Nevada) to a high of 794 registered voters (Pennsylvania). 

Even through this polling series generally shows Biden rebounding from the debate, the B/MC data reveals that former President Trump would convert four states (AZ, GA, NV, PA) and keep North Carolina, which would allow him to exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold (287 EVs) and claim the Presidency.

Rep. Mark Takano: Reports are circulating that California Rep. Mark Takano (D-Riverside) is quoting from a poll of his district that apparently shows President Biden losing among the Congressman’s constituents.  Assuming the accuracy of the poll, this would be a significant data point.  President Biden carried the district 62.0 – 35.8% in 2020, and Rep. Takano won re-election here in 2022 with 57.7% of the vote in the post-redistricting 39th District. 

CA-39 sits wholly within Riverside County and contains the city of Riverside.  It is a largely minority district.  The Voting Age Population figure for Hispanics is 58.5% as compared to 22.4% for non-Hispanic Whites. 

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+23.  The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 61.6D – 36.4R partisan lean based upon vote history.  The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank CA-39 as the 111th safest seat in the country.  Though national polling doesn’t suggest that the President is in dire political straights, a poll such as this in a safe Democratic congressional district may.

SENATE

Wisconsin:  Again, we see the familiar pattern from a survey where former President Trump is leading in a state as is the Democratic Senate candidate.  A Republican polling firm and a Democratic survey research operation again combined efforts to conduct a Wisconsin poll for the AARP organization (Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research; 6/28-7/2; 1,052 WI likely voters; live interview & text). 

They found former President Donald Trump leading President Biden by a 44-38% margin.  When moving to the Senate race, however, it is the Democratic candidate, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who leads by a similar margin, 50-45%.

This pattern of Trump running well ahead of the Republican Senate candidate is present in several other states.  This could be due to the voters being more familiar with the incumbent Democrat, or potentially the participants deliberately splitting their ticket so as not to give Mr. Trump too much power. 

It will be interesting to watch what the Republican strategists do to break this syndrome, and whether their approach will work.  For the GOP to maximize their opportunities on a favorable national Senate map, they must secure multiple conversion seats in order to protect themselves against favorable Democratic maps in the 2026 and 2028 election cycles.

HOUSE

AZ-1:  Arizona’s 1st Congressional District will feature a very tight contest between Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and whomever the Democrats nominate from their crowded August 6th primary election.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st CD as R+7, but the Daily Kos Elections statisticians project the seat as the 18th most vulnerable in the Republican Conference.  President Biden won here in 2020 by a narrow 50.1 – 48.6% margin.

A recent Noble Predictive Insights survey of the 1st District likely Democratic primary voters (6/25-27; 420 respondents; text) sees ballot test results that place almost all of the candidates in position to win the upcoming party primary.  The eventual winner will move into a toss-up general election campaign against Rep. Schweikert who won re-election two years ago with only a 50.4 – 49.6% margin against businessman Jevin Hodge.  The latter man chose not to seek a rematch despite his strong showing in the 2022 campaign.

Former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni and ex-state Representative and physician Amish Shah are tied for first place with just 16% of the vote apiece according to the Noble poll.  Following closely with 14% is former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, the widow of late Attorney General Grant Woods (D).   Investment banker Conor O’Callaghan then trails with 8% support.  A full 35% say they are undecided.  Therefore, this primary will become a political shootout in the closing weeks.

IA-3:  Iowa’s 3rd District is one of the tightest seats in the country.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+2 while Dave’s Redistricting App reports a partisan lean of 49.8R – 47.2D.  Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) unseated then-Rep. Cindy Axne (D) with a 49.6 – 48.9% result in 2022.  This year, the Congressman’s opponent is former Department of Agriculture official Lanan Baccam (D). 

The Baccam campaign just publicized a GQR Research poll (released 7/1; 550 IA-3 likely voters; live interview) that rather predictably shows the race to be a dead heat with each man posting 43% support.  This race again promises to produce one of the tighter finishes in the nation.

MO-1:  Over the July 4th holiday, St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones (D) endorsed Rep. Cori Bush’s (D-St. Louis) bid for renomination on August 6th.  She faces a strong challenge from former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell.  Rep. Bush is viewed as highly vulnerable in the Democratic primary. 

Unlike when Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) was denied renomination on June 25th, the House Democratic leadership is coming to Rep. Bush’s aid in united fashion.  House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA), and House Democratic Conference Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA), all signed a group endorsement statement for the Congresswoman.

While Rep. Bowman’s defeat appeared evident for several weeks, the St. Louis Democratic battle looks to be a much tighter contest.  Heavy outside spending is again present in this race, but not yet to the degree that we saw at a commensurate point against Rep. Bowman.  This is still a battle to watch early next month.  Rep. Bush, while vulnerable, is in a stronger political position than her fallen “Squad” colleague. 

New York:  The political situation continues to deteriorate for President Biden.  As reported on X from journalist Jacqueline Sweet, Democratic polls that won’t be published apparently report that the President is trailing in two potential Democratic conversion districts by double digit margins, seats that he carried in 2020. 

The two are NY-17 and NY-19 that freshmen Reps. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) and Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) currently represent and won with close margins.  As a point of reference, Mr. Biden carried the 17th with a 54-44% margin in 2020, and a 51-47% split in NY-19.

UT-2:  Utah US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) is not out of the woods yet from her close Republican primary race against businessman Colby Jenkins that was conducted on June 25th.  The Utah election officials finally finished the end count, and what was a 309 vote margin for Maloy has dropped to 214 votes. 

The process is not yet finished.  Now, the election staff must conduct a canvass to certify a final vote.  Since the current margin is now within the range where a recount can be requested, Mr. Jenkins says he will do so after the canvass.  This means the counting and recounting process could drag on until the end of July. 

STATES

Delaware:  Candidate filing has now closed for the late Delaware primary scheduled for September 10th.  Though the state features an open Senate and at-large House seat, little in the way of competition will be seen either in the Democratic primary or general election. 

US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) is a lock for the party nomination and the November election and will replace retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D) in the next Congress.  State Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) is the prohibitive favorite to win the party primary and the November election to replace Rep. Blunt Rochester.  Upon election, she will become the first transgender individual elected to Congress.

The only competition appears to occur in the open Governor’s race as incumbent John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.  Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer, and National Wildlife Federation CEO Collin O’Mara are all competing for the Democratic nomination.  The eventual primary winner will then punch his or her ticket to the Governor’s mansion.