A reboot of the Golden Apple
Welcome back from the long July 4th weekend! We are delighted to announce a reboot of the Golden Apple. For those of you who have been long-time readers, we are happy to be back in your inbox. During each week that Congress is in session, we hope to use this newsletter to provide updates, insights, and perhaps a bit of humor, to keep you informed on the happenings in our nation’s capital.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
Powell Testifies before Congress
This week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell returns to Capitol Hill to provide his semi-annual testimony before Congress. He kicks off his return in the Senate tomorrow, with a 10 am appearance. Watch for discussion of inflation and interest rate cuts, though Powell’s appearance comes prior to Thursday’s release of June CPI numbers. Chair Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Yellen Faces House Financial Services
Also on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will provide testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, updating members on the international financial state. Discussion topics may include reforms to the IMF, as well as the Treasury’s efforts to curb terrorism finance and boost its anti-money laundering efforts.
Senate Banking Considers Goldsmith Romero Nomination
On Thursday, Democratic CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will appear before the Senate Banking Committee as they consider her nomination to be Chair of the FDIC. Her nomination follows, of course, a damning report and testimony outlining workplace harassment and toxic culture at the FDIC under current-Chair Martin Gruenberg’s leadership. While Goldsmith Romero flew through the Senate in previous unanimous confirmations to the CFTC, the increased profile of the FDIC will surely bring more scrutiny. The Senate is eyeing a late-July Committee vote for Goldsmith Romero, though the timing of floor consideration may push to September. In the same hearing, the Banking panel will also consider the nomination of Democratic CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson to be an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Should both Goldsmith Romero and Johnson be confirmed to their new positions, that would leave the CFTC with a 2-1 Republican majority on the Commission, so expect some reshuffling in that agency as well.
Crypto Veto Override to Receive Vote
Keep an eye out for a reprisal of Rep. Mike Flood’s (R-NE) S.A.B. 121 nullification effort this week in the form of an attempted override of President Biden’s veto. Rep. Flood’s initial disapproval of the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which provides guidance on firms’ obligation to safeguard users’ crypto assets and account for that liability on balance sheets, passed both Chambers via the Congressional Review Act process in May, but was vetoed by President Biden. However, a vote to override the veto is likely to fail to reach the required 2/3 majority. Stakeholder support for the nullification has also cooled somewhat as the SEC has pursued individual fixes with affected institutions.
What to Watch in Congress
Perhaps what should be headlining the week: at long last and after multiple delays, the House will finally vote this week on two home appliance bills. The Refrigerator Freedom Act, and our personal favorite, the Stop Unaffordable Dishwasher Standards Act (or SUDS Act) will ensure that no American is hampered by energy efficient home appliances.
Continuing Appropriations
The House will also continue its consideration of appropriations bills, taking up Legislative Branch appropriations this week. If successful, this bill will join the Defense, Homeland, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and State-Foreign Operations bills in having passed the House, leaving 7 yet to go. 6 of those 7 have yet to pass Committee, but are slated for markup this week. Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, who recently beat back a self-funded primary challenger, remains committed to completing all of these bills before the August recess, though that is an ambitious timeline, to say the least.
Political Updates from Jim Ellis
Surprising Swing State Polling
Bloomberg News, partnering with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data in the seven key swing states during the July 4th holiday break. The survey results raised eyebrows in several ways.
Morning Consult conducted the studies in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They surveyed voters from July 1-4 in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the sampling period was extended to a fifth day, expanding the interview time to July 1-5.
The sampling universe in each state spanned from a low of 452 registered voters (Nevada) to a high of 794 registered voters (Pennsylvania). In each case, the respondent universe was selected through a stratified sampling process and the individuals answered the survey questions online.
In each state, the pollsters tested President Biden and former President Trump with Independents Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and usually a combination of the other independent or minor party candidates, Jill Stein (Green Party), Dr. Cornel West (Independent), and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). The pollsters then asked a follow-up question that isolated President Biden and Mr. Trump in a one-on-one pairing.
The Bloomberg/Morning Consult analysis indicated that the debate, contrary to the opinion of many television news pundits and several Democratic officials who are calling for President Biden to withdraw from the race, has changed little in terms of the political horse race among the states that will largely determine the November outcome.
This may or may not be the case, and further research is needed to better determine where the national election stands. Though President Biden was detected as leading in two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, over 55% from the aggregate seven-state sample stated their belief that he should withdraw from the campaign. This number includes 58% responding in such a manner from the Independent segment and 29% who self-identify as Democratic participants.
Conversely, former President Trump hit an all-time high in a Pennsylvania survey, as Bloomberg/Morning Consult detected a seven point advantage when the two presumptive nominees were tested in a head-to-head question. Staying with the Pennsylvania head-to-head, the Trump support number reached 51%, which is the only such result for either candidate within the whole seven state survey series. In two other states, Arizona and Nevada, Trump reached the 48% plateau on the head-to-head question. President Biden reached as high as 48% in only one state, Michigan, again in response to the head-to-head question.
In Arizona, Mr. Trump led President Biden by seven percentage points when the independent and minor party candidates were included. His lead dropped to three points in the head-to-head question. The seven points represented an improvement here for Mr. Trump, though he has led in all 20 Arizona polls conducted since January 1st.
The Georgia numbers still favored Trump but appeared to be down a bit from other recent surveys. Like in Arizona, Mr. Trump has led in every poll conducted here (17) since the first of this year.
Michigan has been back and forth all year, usually by a point or two. This Bloomberg/ Morning Consult poll, however, stakes Mr. Biden to one of his better showings, leading Mr. Trump by six points within the multiple candidate field and five in the head-to-head pairing.
Nevada is the third state where Mr. Trump has led or been tied in all 2024 surveys (17). In the Bloomberg/MC poll, his numbers are still strong. Within the multiple candidate field, Mr. Trump holds a six point lead as compared to a +3 margin in the head-to-head.
North Carolina is another state where Trump continues to poll well. In the Bloomberg/ MC study, he leads the multiple candidate field by two points, and three over Biden in the head-to-head. This, from a state where he led in only 25% of the 2020 polls yet carried the final total by just over a percentage point.
As previously mentioned, Mr. Trump scores his best head-to-head number of the cycle (+7) in the Bloomberg/MC Pennsylvania poll. From the multiple candidate field, his lead is three percentage points.
Wisconsin is the other state where Biden forges a current lead according to the Bloomberg/MC data. Here, the President has a two point edge within the multiple candidate field and three over Mr. Trump in the head-to-head.
As we have seen, several of the data segments produced unusual patterns, meaning more information is needed to obtain a better post-debate picture of how the electorate is responding. Even though this polling series generally shows Biden rebounding from the debate, it appears that former President Trump would convert four states (AZ, GA, NV, PA) and keep North Carolina, which would allow him to exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold (287 EVs) and claim the Presidency.