Welcome to December
And we are back. Welcome to December. I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I survived my fourth knee replacement of my left knee and another birthday; both are becoming way too numerous. The knee is recovering well, and I am mostly mobile just 10 days after surgery. Hopefully, this is my last knee replacement but not my last birthday.
Winter is coming… or is it here? Meteorological winter starts today. We mostly think of winter as starting on the winter solstice, which occurs on December 21st this year. The winter solstice marks the shortest day of the year, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted the farthest from the sun. Meteorologists use meteorological winter to align winter more closely with observed temperatures. Due to the angle of the sun in relation to the Earth, it is colder in December than in March when the spring equinox occurs. (link) Regardless, it looks and feels like winter here in the nation’s capital.
House Financial Services Committee roars back to life. Having been quiet during the government shutdown, the House Financial Services Committee has scheduled a busy December. This week, the committee will hold an oversight with the prudential financial regulators (link) and on primary dealers (link). On December 16th and 17th, the Committee has scheduled a markup of various measures that will be announced later. Things are quiet in the Senate Banking Committee, with the focus on trying to bring a cryptocurrency market structure bill through the committee this month.
Another year, another NDAA with financial services. There has been a lot of speculation about adding housing or other financial services provisions to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), but it appears that those efforts fell short. The text of the final NDAA is expected to be released this week, and the House may vote on final passage next week.
FDIC Announces Wade as Chief of Staff. Last week, the FDIC announced the appointment of Dana Wade as Deputy to the Chairman and Chief of Staff. In this role, Ms. Wade will be “advisor to the Acting Chairman on a range of issues facing the agency, help manage the agency’s day-to-day operations, and oversee all of the agency’s divisions and offices.” (link)
The Ellis Report
SENATE
Massachusetts: Two new polls were released in the budding Massachusetts Senate Democratic primary, and each suggests that veteran Sen. Ed Markey will find himself in another tough renomination campaign.
The University of New Hampshire survey (11/13-17; 618 MA registered voters; 343 likely Democratic primary voters; online) posts Sen. Markey to a 34-25% lead over Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). While the Senator maintains a lead beyond the polling margin of error, posting a support figure of only 34% within his own party certainly reveals a weak standing for a long-time incumbent. Mr. Markey was elected to the Senate in a 2013 special election, but his first election to Congress, for the US House, came in 1976.
The Suffolk University study (11/19-23; 500 MA registered voters; live interview), sees Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston) leading Sen. Markey 35-34% with Rep. Moulton only scoring 16 percent. This poll, however, reveals only 144 responses from Democratic primary voters, with another 88 from Independent/Non-Affiliated voters who say they will participate in the Democratic primary. Therefore, 232 responses are far below the minimum 300 sample cell standard for a statewide poll in a domain with nine congressional districts. Therefore, these results should be considered unreliable.
Regardless of what early polling may reveal, Sen. Markey is a proven winner over decades of campaigns, and he scored an impressive win in the 2020 Democratic primary. In that election, Sen. Markey topped then-US Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III, thus defeating a member of the Kennedy family in their home state within the national party that his relatives once led.
New Hampshire: The Manchester area’s St. Anselm College conducted a statewide poll (11/18-19; 2,112 NH registered voters; online) and finds US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) leading former US Senator John E. Sununu (R) by only a 44-41% margin. If former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, Rep. Pappas’ lead would grow to 44-36%. A Pappas-Sununu race would draw significant national attention and is certainly a must-win for Democrats if they are to have any chance of capturing the Senate majority.
Texas: Dueling polls were released during the week about the Texas Senate Republican primary. As we have seen in the past several weeks, different polls are producing wildly diverse results. Stratus Intelligence conducted their poll during the November 21-22 period and contacted 857 likely Republican primary voters via live interviews and texts. The results find Attorney General Ken Paxton leading US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by a 36-26-25% margin, respectively.
Polling during a similar period, Ragnar Research (for the Senate Leadership Fund; 11/13-16; 758 likely TX Republican primary voters; live interview) sees Sen. Cornyn leading his two opponents with a tight 32-31-21% margin over Paxton and Hunt. The close three-way race will almost assuredly force the top two finishers into a secondary runoff election. The Texas primary is scheduled for March 3rd. If a runoff becomes necessary, the two qualifying candidates will then battle until May 26th.
HOUSE
CA-11:San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) announced that she will compete for retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (D-San Francisco) congressional seat. Ms. Chan will challenge state Senator Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) who is considered the definitive favorite. It is likely that two Democrats will advance into the general election from the jungle primary, so the campaign to replace the former House Speaker will likely last the entire campaign cycle.
CA-14: US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) announced that he will join the open California Governor’s race and leave this East San Francisco Bay district without an incumbent for the first time in 102 years. Every change of incumbency during that long stretch occurred with the office holder losing re-election. Among the prominent Democrats considering entering the congressional race are state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) and Alameda County Supervisor David Haubert. Democrats will easily retain the seat.
FL-20: US Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar), who was elected in a 2022 special election, was indicted during the week for stealing federal funds and using them for her campaign. After the indictment announcement, former Broward County Commissioner and previous congressional candidate Dale Holness, who lost to Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick by just five votes in the ’22 special primary election, announced he will return to compete for the seat in 2026.
NH-1: The large sample St. Anselm College poll (11/13-17; online) also tested both of the state’s congressional campaigns. In the open 1st District, for the seat Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is vacating to run for Senate, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring US Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D), has opened a large polling lead opposite the entire field of seven candidates with 26% support. No other contender even reaches the 7 percent mark.
On the Republican side, none of the five announced candidates even exceeds the 5 percent factor.
NH-2: The St. Anselm poll also tested the western New Hampshire 2nd District. Here, freshman incumbent Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) leads her 2024 opponent, businesswoman Lily Tang Williams (R) by a closer than expected 40-35% margin. In the previous St. Anselm poll conducted in August, the Goodlander advantage was 49-31%.
NY-8: The members of New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America organization may have dissuaded New York City Councilman Chi Osse (D) from challenging House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) in next year’s Democratic primary. At the behest of Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani, the members voted not to endorse Osse. The Councilman said, without this organization’s support, that he is now unlikely to pursue his challenge.
Texas Redistricting: After the three-judge El Paso federal panel invalidated the new Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander on a 2-1 vote with a dissent that listed 11 potential legal problems with the ruling, the Department of Justice filed a motion to stay the ruling with the US Supreme Court. Justice Samuel Alito, the administrator for the 5th Appellate District where Texas lies, granted the temporary stay. Therefore, at least for the time being, the 2025 map returns.
Chances are good that the candidates will file under the new map since the candidate filing deadline is December 8th for the March 3rd primary election.
TN-7: The special election to replace resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) will occur on Tuesday between Republican nominee Matt Van Epps (R), a former gubernatorial cabinet member, and state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville). Both parties are spending heavily in the closing days of this special election campaign. Democrats think they can score an upset even though this is a 60% Republican district. Should the Democrats win, this special election will have national electoral implications.
GOVERNOR
Alabama: Former US Senator Doug Jones (D), who lost to now-Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) in a 60-40% result in 2020, announced that he will run for Governor next year. His opponent: the same man who unseated him, Sen. Tuberville. Though former Sen. Jones is the best available Democratic candidate option, Sen. Tuberville, who is virtually unopposed for the Republican nomination, will begin the race next year as a definitive favorite to win the open Governor’s post. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Iowa: State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) announced that he is leaving the Governor’s race and will instead seek re-election to the legislature next year. US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull) appears as the leading contender for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination.
The top Democratic candidate is the party’s lone statewide office holder, State Auditor Rob Sand. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is retiring after serving what will be ten years in office at the end of her current term. The Republicans are favored to hold the Governor’s post, but the campaign will be heavily contested.
Nevada: A new Emerson College survey (11/16-18; 800 NV likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested the Nevada electorate about the state’s upcoming Governor’s campaign. According to the EC results, Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) and Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) are tied at 41% apiece. In a state that features many razor-thin general elections, seeing a dead heat form for a top of the ticket race is no surprise in the Silver State.
Ohio: After a long period of testing the waters, former US Representative, ex-presidential, and former US Senate candidate Tim Ryan (D), announced that he will not enter the open Governor’s race next year. The decision gives former state Health Director Amy Acton (D) a virtual free path to the Democratic nomination. It is very likely that she and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy will face each other in the open general election. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
Rhode Island: The University of New Hampshire also tested the Rhode Island electorate for its upcoming Democratic gubernatorial primary. The UNH poll (11/13-17; 359 RI likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds Gov. Dan McKee in deep political trouble. According to the ballot test result, businesswoman and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Helena Foulkes leads the Governor by a whopping 38-12% among voting members of their own party.
If state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) were to enter the race, the ballot test changes to 43-29-11% respectively for Foulkes, Shekarchi, and Gov. McKee. In the 2022 primary election, Gov. McKee held off a strong challenge from Ms. Foulkes by just three percentage points.
STATE & LOCAL
Washington, DC: Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) announced early this week that she will not seek a fourth term next year. The decision had largely been expected. It is probable that a number of the sitting City Council members will now jump into what will be an open mayoral race next year.