Happening this week, finally.

It’s not too late. Although past its peak this weekend, the Geminids meteor shower is still visible through December 17th. Clear skies are finally predicted for the next couple of days in DC. If the weather doesn’t cooperate where you are, the Ursids meteor shower begins on December 17th and lasts until December 26th, with a peak on the 21st and 22nd, and aligns with the new moon, so it should provide a very dark sky for viewing.  (Link) Keep looking up!

Happening this week, finally. The US Senate will take up the confirmation of 97 nominees under the new Senate rule that permits considering nominees together rather than individually. Included in this group will be Travis Hill to be Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Michael Selig to be the Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Also included is Frank Cassidy to be the Assistant Secretary of Housing and FHA Commissioner at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Senate will confirm these nominees before recessing for the holidays on Thursday. 

Less is less. Last week, the House passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).  The Senate will pass the bill this week.  What is notable is what was not included in this annual must pass legislation—any housing or financial services provisions. An effort to add the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act, which passed the Senate Banking Committee unanimously 24-0 vote on October 9, was blocked by House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-Arkansas). Chairman Hill argued that the House had not considered many of the provisions contained in the Senate proposal. Inclusion of extraneous matters in the NDAA requires the agreement of the chair and ranking members of the authorizing committees and the leadership of both chambers. 

Making up ground. The House Financial Services Committee will hold a markup on a variety of measures on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.  You can see the list of bills and a description here. 

Programming note.  This will be the last Golden Apple of 2025.  We wish you a very happy holiday season and a healthy and prosperous new year. We are very excited about 2026 and the opportunity to share our observations with you. We will return on January 5th when Congress returns from the holiday recess. 

The Ellis Report

SENATE

Colorado: State Sen. Julie Gonzales (D-Denver), a former Democratic Socialists of America organization member, has launched a Democratic primary challenge against Sen. John Hickenlooper. Sen. Gonzales says the race will be about more than just ideology, though she is to the left of the Senator. At 42 years of age, she will make the Senator turning 74 before the Colorado primary an issue as well. Before winning the Senate seat in 2020, Mr. Hickenlooper served two terms as Governor and is a former presidential candidate.

Illinois: A new Change Research poll (12/4-8; 1,007 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online) again finds US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg) maintaining a huge lead over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). This latest poll result finds Krishnamoorthi’s lead to be 42-14-7% over Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly. 

The Congressman also has a crushing lead in campaign resources.  According to the September 30th Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure report, Krishnamoorthi had over $18 million cash-on-hand compared to Lt. Gov. Stratton having just over $2 million, while Rep. Kelly posted less than $1 million. The Democratic primary winner will be the prohibitive favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D). 

Maine: Maine polling is again proving highly inconsistent. In mid-November, the Z to A Research firm released a survey that found oysterman Graham Platner leading Gov. Janet Mills in the US Senate Democratic primary by a whopping 58-38% count. In early December, the new Pan Atlantic Research survey (11/28-12/7; 820 ME likely voters; 318 ME likely Democratic primary voters) projects Gov. Mills to a ten-point, 47-37% advantage. 

The latter survey has a very small sample, so the error factor is high, but showing a huge 30-point swing on the ballot test again reveals that Maine constituents are difficult to poll. In the 2020 Senate election, incumbent Susan Collins (R) trailed in every published poll, yet won the election by eight percentage points.

The Pan Atlantic general election numbers report a 43-43% tie between Sen. Collins and Gov. Mills. If Mr. Platner were the Democratic nominee, he would lead Sen. Collins by a single percentage point, 43-42%.

Texas: Candidate filing in Texas is now complete. In the Senate race, we now have a clear picture for the March 3rd partisan primaries. For the Republicans, and amidst minor candidates, the three major participants, Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), are vying for the party nomination. This race is expected to be close and moving toward a runoff, which is necessary if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. At this point, it appears that Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton will advance to the secondary election.

For the Democrats, we see a battle between US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Five minor candidates have filed, but it is unclear just how many will qualify for the ballot. Irrespective of these latter candidates’ presence, it is likely that we will see either Rep. Crockett or state Rep. Talarico claim the party nomination on March 3rd.

HOUSE 

AZ-5: Former Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R) didn’t fare well in the 2024 US Senate Republican primary, losing to eventual nominee Kari Lake by a 55-40% split. It appears his prospects to replace Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) in the 5th Congressional District are much better.  Rep. Biggs is running for Governor. According to a Victory Insights survey (12/2-5; 500 AZ-5 likely Republican primary voters), Mr. Lamb leads former NFL place kicker Jay Feely by a whopping 64-3% count. No other candidate even reaches the 2% support plateau. 

District 5 is safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.5R – 39.6D), so the eventual Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

CA-41: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) will not get a free ride in switching from CD-38 to CD-41 under the new California congressional map. This week, former state Assemblyman and Air Resources Board member Hector De La Torre (D) announced that he will challenge her in the June 2nd jungle primary election. The 41st District is safely Democratic and could possibly send two Democrats to the general election. Therefore, this could be a year-long campaign. 

The two have battled before.  In 2002, when Rep. Sanchez was first elected to Congress, she defeated Mr. De La Torre in a close race for the party nomination in what was then District 39.

Indiana Redistricting: Defying President Trump and Gov. Mike Braun (R), the Republican Indiana state Senate rejected approving a new map that would have ostensibly allowed the GOP to gain two additional congressional seats in the Hoosier State delegation. Therefore, the action means that redistricting will not occur in Indiana before the 2026 election.

MD-6: Former Maryland Congressman David Trone (D), the founder of what is now the Total Wine & More company, lost the 2024 Democratic US Senate primary to now-Senator Angela Alsobrooks despite spending $62 million of his own money on the campaign. 

Mr. Trone, who served as the 6th District Congressman for three terms, announced that he will enter the 2026 Democratic primary in an attempt to regain his former position. To do so, he will have to deny freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) renomination.  The Maryland primary is scheduled for June 23rd and promises to be an expensive affair.

Missouri Redistricting: An effort to launch a petition drive to repeal the new Missouri congressional redistricting map has gathered twice the number of signatures necessary to force an initiative vote. There are several other legal requirements that must be met, so it remains to be seen if a repeal ballot measure will qualify for a vote. Under the new map, the 5th District of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) will likely flip to the Republicans.

NY-10: As expected, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander (D) announced that he will wage a Democratic primary challenge to two-term US Rep. Dan Goldman (D-Manhattan). Speculation about Mr. Lander entering the 2026 congressional race had been active since he lost the mayoral Democratic primary. 

Apparently, the issue difference will involve Rep. Goldman’s support for Israel, but Lander already enjoys support from the party’s leftwing faction including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and the Working Families New York political party. 

We can expect an expensive and likely very negative campaign to unfold before the June 23rd primary. At this point, Rep. Goldman should be favored to prevail. Two other potential Goldman challengers, former state Assemblywoman and 2022 congressional candidate Yuh-Line Niou and New York City Councilwoman Alexa Aviles, who were considering entering the race, have decided not to run.

NY-15:  US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), who was a potential gubernatorial Democratic primary challenger to Gov. Kathy Hochul before deciding to seek re-election, sees another primary opponent come forth. State Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo (D-Bronx) announced this week that she will launch her congressional candidacy.  Also in the race are former state Assemblyman Michael Blake and public defender Dalourny Nemorin. 

The crowded field will likely help Rep. Torres because Ranked Choice Voting is not in effect for New York federal races.

NC-4: Another Democratic US House incumbent will be forced to repel a challenge from her ideological left. North Carolina US Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough) will now face Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam in next year’s March 3rd Democratic primary. Until her initial election to Congress in 2022, Rep. Foushee spent nine years in the North Carolina legislature. Ms. Allam was first elected to the County Commission in 2020. All of Durham County lies in Congressional District 4, which constitutes a little over 43% of the CD’s population.

TX-9: Returning to the political wars is former Congressman Steve Stockman (R). Mr. Stockman was twice elected to Congress in non-consecutive elections. He was convicted of violating certain financial laws, but President Trump commuted his 10-year prison sentence. Mr. Stockman filed as a candidate in the new District 9 to join the other major candidate within the crowded field, state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park). 

With 11 candidates in the CD-9 race, advancing to a runoff election is probable. It remains to be seen how many of the filed candidates qualify for the ballot. Under the new redistricting plan, the 9th District should be one of the seats that Republicans gain.

TX-33: The new 33rd District also hosted some unexpected political moves. It appeared that District 33 incumbent Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) would move into District 30 since Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) move to the Senate leaves that seat open, but he surprisingly chose not to file. Instead, Mr. Veasey decided to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive) where he will face a Republican incumbent and other significant candidates. 

The Veasey move allows Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch), who sees her 32nd District transform into a Republican domain and stretch into East Texas, to run in District 33, which is fully contained within Dallas County. 

Her major obstacle to winning a second term in Congress is former US Representative and 2024 US Senate Democratic nominee Colin Allred. Though announcing for the Senate in October, Mr. Allred instead changed his mind at the last minute and filed to return to the House, this time in District 33. Also in the race is former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilman Domingo Garcia. Therefore, the top two candidates falling into a runoff becomes a possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will easily win the seat in the general election.

VA-2: Anticipating that Democrats will be able to meet the requirements to engage in a mid-decade redistricting that includes obtaining voter approval, former US Rep. Elaine Luria (D) announced that she will return for a re-match with the woman who unseated her in 2022, current Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach). Should new Democratic state government win the opportunity of redistricting, changing the 2nd CD to a more Democratic favorable district will be their top priority.

VA-5: Another former US Representative looking to return in anticipation of a new redistricting map is Democrat Tom Perriello who served one term in the House from 2009-11. He has announced plans to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot). After losing his first re-election in 2008, Mr. Perriello was appointed as a special envoy to Africa in the Obama Administration.

GOVERNOR

New York: US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) no longer has a clear path to the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Fresh from winning a landslide re-election, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, despite badly trailing in early polling, this week launched his own gubernatorial bid. The winner of the June 23rd primary will face the winner of the Democratic primary between incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul and Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado. The general election will likely become very competitive.