U.S. House Passes Annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
The Buzz on the Hill
U.S. House Passes Annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
Today, the U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 8070 – the Servicemember Quality of Life Improvement and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025 - by a vote of 217-199. The legislation usually garners broad bipartisan support; however, became very partisan when GOP conservatives added numerous “poison pill” amendments to the bill around issues such as abortion, transgender surgery, and the elimination of diversity, equality, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives across the armed forces. The massive $895.2 billion defense policy bill, before the addition of the floor amendments, passed out of the Full Committee by a 57-1 vote. Over the last three days, the House considered over 350 amendments on the House Floor. Core aspects of the bill focused on increasing pay for junior enlisted servicemembers by 19.5%, improving unaccompanied housing, expanding servicemember access to childcare and healthcare, and supporting military spouses. Today’s approval comes as the Senate Armed Services Committee proposed a $878.4 billion Pentagon budget for the fiscal year starting October 1, an amount that surpasses by about $25 billion the White House request and a cap set as part of debt-ceiling negotiations. It is almost certain that the White House and Senate will reject the hardline GOP provisions added to the House version of the legislation in the last few days, setting up a very complicated and contentious reconciliation process before the bill is finalized.
U.S. Supreme Court Upholds Access to Abortion Pill
On Thursday, the Supreme Court upheld a federal regulation that allows access to the abortion pill mifepristone, a win for the Biden Administration and pro-choice advocates. The unanimous ruling shot down the case by anti-abortion doctors and groups challenging the FDA’s 2016 and 2021 rules that expanded access to the drug. Since Roe was overturned, abortion pills have become the most popular method for the procedure as many patients have obtained the pills online and through the mail to work around state bans. According to reports, the justices questioned whether the physicians had the standing to sue given the low rates of complication with the drug. It was the most consequential ruling since Roe was overturned, but abortion advocates still want the Biden Administration to do more to expand access to mifepristone with more attempts to restrict the drug potentially on the horizon. Abortion will continue to be a hot-button issue in the Courts this summer, as the Supreme Court will make a ruling on access to abortion for patients experiencing a life- or health-threatening medical emergency in the coming weeks.
House Republicans Hold Garland in Contempt
Attorney General Merrick Garland was held in contempt of Congress after a House vote along party lines. The contempt resolution stemmed from the federal investigation into Pres. Joe Biden’s handling of classified information where special counsel Robert Hur did not charge the President for any crimes. House Republicans went after Garland for refusing to turn over audio of Hur’s interviews with Biden. The Biden Administration invoked executive privilege to block release of the tapes, which also effectively protects Garland from any charges taking hold. Garland slammed the contempt proceedings in a written opinion: “Using conspiracy theories, falsehoods, violence, and threats of violence to affect political outcomes is not normal. The short-term political benefits of those tactics will never make up for the long-term cost to our country." Garland becomes the third Attorney General in U.S. history to be held in contempt and the first since Bill Barr in 2019.
Appropriations Highlights
This week, the House Appropriations Committee continued its march through consideration of the 12 funding bills for fiscal year 2025. The full committee considered the following bills this week: Defense, Financial Services, Legislative Branch, State Foreign Operations, and Homeland Security. All of the bills were marked up and approved along party lines. Democrats opposed GOP policy riders related to abortion, diversity, immigration, and others. While the House remains on schedule, it is our understanding that Senate appropriators hope to quickly consider their bills after spending allocations are established in that body.
As of today, the House has considered five funding measures at full committee, one at subcommittee, and one funding measure was considered on the House Floor – the Military Construction, Veterans Affairs measure. When the House returns from their recess next week, three bills are expected to be considered on the House Floor.
This Week’s Takeaways
Former President Donald Trump made a rare return to Washington on Thursday, meeting with House and Senate Republicans to lay out his agenda for a potential second term. There were some testy moments from the meetings, including reports that Trump called Milwaukee – the site of the GOP Convention - a “terrible city” and criticized Republicans for their abortion stance costing them seats in 2022. Ultimately, Trump urged for party unity heading into the 2024 election and praised Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) for their leadership. "This is an outstanding group of people. I'm with them 1,000%, they're with me 1,000%,” Trump said after the meetings. “We agree just about on everything and if there isn't, we work it out.”
The Biden Administration will nominate Christy Goldsmith Romero as the new Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) chair. Goldsmith Romero will replace current Chair Martin Gruenberg, who announced he would resign following damning reports of toxic workplace culture and sexual harassment taking place at the FDIC. Goldsmith Romero is currently a commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The White House intends for her nomination hearing to take place in July. However, Senate Banking Committee chair Sherrod Brown has not yet indicated when the hearing would be held.
Batter Up: The annual Congressional Baseball Game took place on Wednesday and runs were not hard to find. The Republicans crushed the Democrats 31-11, the fourth consecutive win for the GOP. The baseball tradition started in 1909 and has been played every year since 1962 except for 2020. The Republicans scored nine runs in the third and fourth innings and brought 10 members across home plate in the final frame to give the baseball game a final that looked like it belonged more on a football scoreboard. The game raised over $2 million for charity. It was also briefly interrupted by Climate protestors.
Outstanding Achievements
GR’s very own Blair Hancock was named to the 2024 American Council of Young Political Leaders. Hancock was part of a highly selective delegation of emerging political leaders that travelled to Canada to engage in international political discussions and gain a global perspective. The group travelled to Ottawa, Montreal, and Edmonton and had the privilege of meeting with Canadian Members of Parliament, the U.S. Ambassador to Canada, the Speaker of the Alberta Legislature, and Business CEOs, among others. This immersive experience provided invaluable insights into Canada's political landscape and fostered meaningful connections aimed at enhancing bilateral cooperation
GR client Associated Equipment Distributors held a successful Policy Conference this week. The three-day conference discussed the biggest legislative priorities facing the industry including IIJA implementation, education and workforce development, reforming the right to repair, and the implications of the impending farm bill. More than 30 bipartisan members attended the Congress AED board members met with Administration Executives including the Deputy Assistant to the President for Infrastructure Implementation, the Director of Labor Policy for the National Economic Council and a senior policy advisor for the Office of Clean Energy Innovation and Implementation. They also attended more than 100 meetings on the hill.
GR supported Space Florida CEO Rob Long at a panel discussion with Global Space Alliance entitled “The Growing Importance of Spaceports to the World Economy.” Long discussed Space Florida’s leading efforts in the spaceport infrastructure industry and advocated for the Secure U.S. Leadership in Space Act of 2024, which would make spaceports eligible for tax-exempt bonds.
Preparing for the Week Ahead
The House is on recess next week around the Juneteenth holiday. The Senate will be in session.
The Ellis Insight
PRIMARY RESULTS
Maine: Retired NASCAR driver and state Representative Austin Theriault (R-Ft. Kent) easily defeated fellow state Rep. and actor Michael Soboleski to advance into the 2nd Congressional District general election. There, he will face Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) in what should become a competitive race in a CD that former President Trump is expected to handily carry in November.
Nevada: Afghan War veteran Sam Brown was a big winner in the Republican primary and now advances to challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen (D). He defeated a field of 11 opponents with just under 60% of the vote.
The 1st Congressional District will host a rematch of the 2022 campaign where Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) defeated financial planner Mark Robertson (R). Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) has no Democratic opponent in November. Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) faces a new Republican challenger this year, marketing consultant Drew Johnson. North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (R), who once ran for Congress as a Democrat, won a close Republican primary and now will challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas).
North Dakota: The open races in the Peace Garden State unfolded as expected. Three-term US Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) was an easy Republican gubernatorial primary winner over Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller. Rep. Armstrong now becomes a prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R). Rep. Armstrong’s open House seat Republican successor is Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak, who had the benefit of endorsements from both former President Trump and Gov. Burgum. Ms. Fedorchak will now have an easy run in the general election and should easily claim the seat in November.
South Carolina: The most competitive races in Tuesday’s primaries came from South Carolina, but again, as has been the case all year, the incumbents were projected as winners. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville) were victorious in their renomination campaigns, defeating former Haley Administration cabinet secretary Catherine Templeton and state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville), respectively. In the open 3rd District, pastor Mark Burns and National Guard Lt. Colonel Sheri Biggs advance to a runoff election scheduled for June 25. The winner of that race will claim the safely Republican 3rd CD in the general election.
OH-6 Special Election: State Sen. Michael Rulli (R-Salem) captured the 6th District special election with a 55-45% victory over Democrat Michael Kripchak, though the margin was a bit closer than expected. While Rep-Elect Rulli will take the seat upon certification and serve the balance of the term, the two will again meet in the November general election. In a regular turnout election, the Republican percentage for Mr. Rulli should be greater.
PRESIDENT
Maine: A new Critical Insights poll of the Maine electorate suggests this state, which hasn’t seen a Republican presidential candidate win the statewide vote since George H.W. Bush did so in 1988, may come into play this November. The CI survey (released June 13; 609 ME likely general election voters) finds former President Trump posting 41% support versus 40% for President Biden. When the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system is employed through several mock rounds, President Biden ultimately exceeds 50% when the second choice votes are added to the aggregate through the complicated system. Mr. Trump is in play for the statewide vote because he has a larger lead in the 2nd District than Mr. Biden has in CD-1.
Minnesota: The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy’s recent survey of Minnesota general election voters again points to the state moving closer to the competitive realm. Five other Minnesota polls have been released this year with all finding President Biden and former President Trump falling within a 2-4 point ballot test range. Four of the five found Mr. Biden holding the lead.
The new Mason-Dixon poll (6/3-5; 800 MN registered voters; live interview) sees Mr. Biden outpacing Mr. Trump by four percentage points, 45–41%. Minnesota is the Democrats’ most loyal state, supporting the party nominee over the past twelve elections. The last time Minnesota went Republican came in 1972 when the voters backed then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D-SD).
SENATE
Ohio: Marist College surveyed the Ohio electorate (6/3-6; 1,137 OH registered voters) and reports a pattern seen in other states with key Senate races. While former President Trump leads President Biden and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. here 48-41-5%, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown tops Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, 50-45%. This tells us two things. First, that Sen. Brown’s campaign message localizing the race to Ohio needs, especially on manufacturing issues, is working, and second, that the Republican message tying Brown to Biden is so far insufficient.
Utah: A HarrisX poll conducted for the Deseret News service (6/4-7; 477 UT registered Republican voters; 469 likely Republican primary voters) sees Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) leading Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs and former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, 34-16-12%, as the candidates move closer to the state’s June 25 primary election.
Mr. Staggs, with former President Trump’s endorsement, won the Republican nominating convention in late April, but so far that has not translated into a primary advantage. Rep. Curtis has held the lead in the three published polls since April 1 and is clearly the man to beat in the June 25 primary. The November winner will succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R).
HOUSE
CA-49: A new Survey USA poll (6/6-10; 606 CA-49 registered voters; 559 likely voters; live interview & electronic device) finds three-term California Rep. Mike Levin (R-San Juan Capistrano) leading auto dealer Matt Gunderson (R) by a 50-40% count. In the jungle primary, Rep. Levin only posted 51% support.
While this number suggests the race is on the cusp of competitiveness, the fact that President Biden leads with only a 47-42% spread (down from his 55-43% CA-49 victory in 2020) gives the GOP challenger some further hope of making this southern California contest a race. At this point, Rep. Levin is still favored to win re-election, but this contest could become one to watch as the campaign cycle matures.
DE-AL: Delaware State Housing Authority Director Eugene Young (D), who outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) was supporting for a US House seat that the state chief executive previously represented, announced yesterday that he is ending his congressional campaign to replace US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington). For the time being, this leaves the Democratic field to state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) who, if elected, would become the first transgender individual elected to Congress. Candidate filing for the late September 10 primary does not end until July 9, so it is still possible for other candidates to enter the race.
All of Delaware’s key offices are open. Gov. Carney is term limited but running for the open Wilmington Mayor’s position. Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D) has declared for Governor, leaving her position open. Rep. Blunt Rochester is running for retiring US Sen. Tom Carper’s seat, and the situation pertaining to the open at-large House seat was described above.
MI-10: The Michigan state Court of Appeals rejected former congressional candidate and Wayne State University Board of Governors member Anil Kumar’s (D) lawsuit to reverse the State Board of Canvassers’ decision to disqualify him from the 10th District congressional race. The Board ruled that he did not submit 1,000 legal petition signatures, which is a requirement under Michigan election law. Mr. Kumar was a factor in the race after putting $1 million of his own money into his campaign account.
Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) won the seat in 2022 by less than a percentage point. His 2022 opponent, former Macomb County prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga, is running again this year as are three other qualified Democrats. Expect Mr. Marlinga again to win the primary. The general election will once again be competitive in a 10th CD that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+6.
MO-1: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) months ago pledged to spend big money to defeat their most ardent adversaries in the US House, and the organization’s leadership is keeping its word. In the process of spending multi millions of dollars to help defeat New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) in the June 25 Democratic primary, AIPAC has upped its spending against Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) to at least $1 million. Since the Show Me State primary is not scheduled until August 6, we can expect considerably more coming into this race.
Former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Ball and two others are opposing Rep. Bush in the Democratic primary. Through the March 31 campaign finance reporting period, Ms. Bush reports $1.6 million as compared to Mr. Ball’s $1.7 million. No outside support money has yet appeared to back Rep. Bush.
NY-16: A just released Emerson College poll (6/6-8; 425 NY-16 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Westchester County Executive George Latimer continuing to lead two-term Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) by a rather wide margin, 48-31%. Mr. Latimer also has the advantage in campaign fundraising.
The bad news for Rep. Bowman continues. Former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D) also yesterday announced her formal endorsement of Mr. Latimer. Ironically, it was Mr. Bowman, himself, who challenged and defeated a Democratic incumbent in 2020, then-Rep. Eliot Engel. Not surprisingly, Mr. Engel has also endorsed County Executive Latimer. While incumbents have had a perfect year so far in renomination campaigns, Mr. Bowman, a member of the controversial Democratic Socialist “Squad,” may be the most vulnerable incumbent standing before a primary electorate. The New York primary is scheduled for June 25.
GOVERNOR
Utah: Gov. Spencer Cox, who lost the April Republican nominating convention to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding), is rebounding nicely in the primary election according to a new poll. As mentioned above, HarrisX conducted a statewide Republican primary survey for the Deseret News (6/4-7; 477 UT registered Republican voters; 469 likely Republican primary voters) and finds Gov. Cox establishing a strong 62-27% lead over Mr. Lyman.
As is often the case, the primary electorate predilections do not always correspond with the Republican Party delegates who attend a state’s nominating convention. At this point, Gov. Cox appears well on his way toward renomination and re-election on June 25 and November 5.
STATES
Colorado: Gov. Jared Polis (D) has signed new bipartisan legislation that will make adopting Ranked Choice Voting more difficult even if voters approve a related ballot measure later this year. Seeing that the RCV system tends to elect political minority candidates as opposed to those contenders “with the broadest support,” as the RCV proponents maintain, the legislature and Governor have just enacted strong restrictions regarding when it can be used.
Under the new Colorado law, Ranked Choice Voting is not allowed in federal or state races, and can only take effect in any local race only after “a dozen counties that meet certain demographic criteria” approve the system. Therefore, even if voters support the Top 4 Ranked Choice Voting initiative that could be on the state’s general election ballot, it will be quite some time before we see the system actually being implemented.
Florida: Earlier in the week former Sunshine State Congressman Alan Grayson (D) announced that he was ending his campaign for the US Senate well before the state’s August 20 primary, yet he is not stepping away from elective politics. Almost immediately after leaving the federal campaign, he announced his entry into an open Democratic primary for a central Florida state Senate seat.