Pres. Biden, Members of Congress attend 80th Anniversary of D-Day
The Buzz on the Hill
Pres. Biden, Members of Congress attend 80th Anniversary of D-Day
President Joe Biden, along with other world leaders, traveled to Normandy this week for an event commemorating the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Biden delivered a speech to World War II veterans, championing the power of NATO and drawing attention to the power of international alliances as the ongoing war in Ukraine continues. “What the allies did together 80 years ago far surpassed anything we could have done on our own,” Biden remarked. “It was a powerful illustration of how alliances, real alliances, make us stronger. A lesson that I pray we Americans never forget.” In addition to the Commander in Chief, 18 Senators and 50 Representatives were in attendance, including Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), John Boozman (R-AR), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
First Spending Bill passes the House
Appropriations season has kicked off in Washington. On Wednesday, the House passed its Military Construction and Veteran Affairs bill (MILCON), the first of twelve Fiscal Year 2025 spending bills. The $379 billion package passed by a largely partisan vote of 209-197. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) announced his aggressive plan to have all spending bills passed ahead of the August recess. During debate on the MILCON bill, House Democrats complained about GOP cuts of approximately $700 million in FY24 enacted levels of funding and opposed numerous policy riders inserted into the bill by Republicans in an effort to win over support from GOP hardliners. Riders included in the legislation would prohibit the VA from implementing a rule allowing women veterans to receive abortions and counseling in cases of rape, incest, or when the health of the woman is at risk, while other riders deal with gun background checks for veterans who’ve had a fiduciary appointed for them, climate change, Critical Race Theory, DEI, and transgender medical care.
During the week of June 24, the House is scheduled to consider the Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations (SFOPS), and Defense spending bills. Homeland Security and Defense will get bumps in spending, while the proposed SFOPS bill would see an 11% cut.
As time goes on, the bills get more and more complicated and more difficult to pass. While Chairman Cole may reach his goal of passing all FY25 spending measures before the end of July, the largely party-line vote on this package signals that bipartisan support for these proposed packages will likely be difficult to find, and another spending fight awaits down the road.
Senate Republicans Block Contraception Legislation
The Right to Contraception Act was taken up for a vote on Wednesday, falling short of the 60-vote filibuster threshold in a 51-39 vote. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) were the only GOP members to vote in favor of the bill. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer ended up voting against the bill in a procedural move to be able to bring it up again at a later date. The legislation, which would have enshrined Americans’ access to birth control as federal law, was widely expected to fail, and the right to contraception is already protected under Supreme Court precedent. Instead, the legislative maneuver was viewed as a demonstrative measure by Democrats to highlight the dichotomy between the two parties on reproductive rights ahead of the November election.
This Week’s Takeaways
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Administrator Shailen Bhatt was on the Hill this week to testify in front of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. The oversight hearing centered around the FHWA’s current progress with various highway infrastructure projects. Administrator Bhatt credited the Biden Administration’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) for unlocking billions in funding for infrastructure projects around the country. There was a lot of focus on the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program (NEVI), which Administrator Bhatt ensured was on track to have 500,000 charging stations deployed by the end of the decade despite a slow initial rollout.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will give a speech to Congress on July 24.
Netanyahu was invited to Washington last month and now has an official date to deliver his address ahead of the August recess. This will be Netanyahu’s first trip to the nation's capital since 2015 and comes as Israel faces increased scrutiny around the ongoing war. Some Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT), have said they will boycott the speech.
The House Ways and Means Social Security Subcommittee held a hearing on Tuesday about the state of Social Security Trust Funds. The Committee heard testimony from the Social Security Administration and the Congressional Budget Office about the current state of the Social Security program and the impending shortfall the program is facing in the mid-2030s. The costs now outweigh the revenue and are depleting the Social Security trust funds to offset the gap. Once the trust funds are depleted, benefits could be cut by 20%. Both parties hoped to find solutions before the problem became a reality. Democratic members advocated for increasing taxes on income and making billionaires pay their fair share to increase money flowing into social security. Republican members pushed for decreasing benefits and increasing the retirement eligibility age from 67 to 70 to reduce costs. The last amendments to Social Security occurred in 1983. While there was bipartisan agreement that the committee should address the issue to avoid a shortfall, there was no immediate consensus on the best path forward.
Outstanding Achievements
GR congratulates the Manufactured Housing Institute for participating in this week’s Innovative Housing Showcase. MHI had two manufactured homes on display on the National Mall. Numerous members of Congress, including Rep. Eric Sorenson (D-IL) and Rep. Aaron Bean (R-FL) stopped by to see the homes.
Preparing for the Week Ahead
Tuesday, June 11
House Appropriations Subcommittee Markup for FY25 Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies Bill
Wednesday, June 12
House Appropriations Full Committee Markup for FY25 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs Bill and Homeland Security Bill
House Appropriations Subcommittee Markup for FY25 Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Bill
House Financial Services Committee Hearing: Oversight of the FDIC’s Failed Leadership and Toxic Workplace Culture
House Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight Hearing: Environmentalism Off the Rails: How CARB will Cripple the National Rail Network
House Transportation & Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials Hearing: Amtrak and Intercity Passenger Rail Oversight: Promoting Performance, Safety, and Accountability
House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Hearing: Looking Beyond 2025 for Trade with Sub-Saharan Africa, Haiti, and Others
Senate Banking Committee Hearing: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s Semi-Annual Report to Congress
Senate Environment and Public Works Hearing: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Proposed Fiscal Year 2025 Budget
Thursday, June 13
House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Highways and Transit Hearing: Revenue, Ridership, and Post-Pandemic Lessons in Public Transit
The Ellis Insight
PRIMARY RESULTS
Iowa: In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) only scored a 56-44% renomination victory over businessman David Pautsch, who attacked over a series of her centrist votes. Mr. Pautsch had raised just $35,000 through the May 15th pre-primary disclosure period. Therefore, him holding Miller-Meeks to only 56% within her own party suggests significant incumbent weakness for the general election.
Turning to the state’s western district, two-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) only scored a 60% win over former CIA agent Kevin Virgil who was backed by many of former US Rep. Steve King’s supporters. Rep. Feenstra holds Iowa’s safest congressional district and will now have little trouble winning a third term in November.
In the most competitive seat, the Des Moines anchored 3rd District, Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) will face former Department of Agriculture official Lanon Baccam, who scored an easy 84% victory in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Mr. Nunn nipped two-term incumbent Cindy Axne (D) with a less than a one point margin.
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), as expected, both easily won renomination in Tuesday’s primary. Overall, Republican participation was greater as one would expect based upon vote trends from elections after 2012. Approximately 57% of those who cast a ballot in the primary did so on the Republican side.
Sen. Tester will now officially face retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) in the general election for what will be one of the most important Senate races on anyone’s ballot.
In the open 2nd District, State Auditor Troy Downing defeated former US Rep. Denny Rehberg, ex-DEA agent Stacy Zinn, and state Superintendent for Public Instruction to score a 37-17-15-9% Republican primary victory. As the new 2nd District Republican nominee, Mr. Downing is virtually assured of succeeding retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana congressional district.
New Jersey: After being outspent and trailing in an early poll, freshman New Jersey US Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) defended himself against a serious challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla to record a 54-36% renomination victory. In a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+47, the Congressman’s primary win has unofficially secured him a second term. He also overcame the baggage he inherited from his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, and the latter’s criminal indictment and trial.
In the open Garden State Senate race, as predicted, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) easily won the Democratic primary, scoring 75% of the vote against two minor candidates. Republicans nominated real estate developer Curtis Bashaw with approximately 46% of the vote against three GOP opponents. Mr. Bashaw will advance to the general election against Rep. Kim and Sen. Menendez who is running as an Independent.
In Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District, also as expected, state Assemblyman Herb Conaway (D-Delran) looks to have topped state Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mt. Laurel) by a 2:1 margin. Mr. Conaway will now have a relatively easy ride in the general election from a seat that redistricting transformed into a likely Democratic domain. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates NJ-3 as D+9.
PRESIDENT
North Carolina: Meeting Street Insights again conducted a regular statewide North Carolina political survey for the Carolina Leadership Coalition and the Carolina Partnership for Reform organizations in late April (4/25-28; 500 NC likely general election voters) and have now released the results. The data shows mixed conclusions for both parties.
In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump, while posting the same upside down favorability index as President Biden, 39:59% positive to negative, leads the incumbent 40-35% with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. drawing 11% support on the Independent ballot line, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein attracts 2 percent. This is likely a better result for Trump than the numbers indicate. In every other tested statewide race, Governor, Attorney General, state Supreme Court, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, the Democratic candidate holds a lead between two and seven points.
Polling: In the first released polls since former President Donald Trump’s conviction was announced on Thursday night, a pair of pollsters still project him locked in a virtual national tie with President Biden. YouGov, polling for The Economist publication and Morning Consult released their frequent tracks.
In the YouGov survey (6/2-4; 1,566 US registered voters; online), the ballot test finds Messrs. Trump and Biden tied at 42% apiece. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I) records 3% support, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Independent Cornel West each secure 1% preference. Morning Consult (5/31-6/2; 10,404 US registered voters; online) sees Mr. Trump holding a slight 44-43% edge in a head-to-head test. Therefore, with the respondents knowing of the Trump conviction, the voting populace seems unfazed.
SENATE
Nevada: While Afghan War veteran and official Republican Party backed Senate candidate Sam Brown was expected to breeze through the GOP primary, a new poll suggests otherwise. A Kaplan Strategies study conducted for the Jeff Gunter (R) campaign (5/30; 802 NV likely Republican primary voters; online) sees the former Ambassador to Iceland and physician moving ahead of Mr. Brown by a 31-30% count.
In further bad news for Mr. Brown, the Tyson Group (5/22-25; 601 NV likely general election voters; online) shows Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading the general election ballot test with a large 47-33% advantage. In both the Gunter and Rosen cases, the candidates had launched large media blitzes prior to the polling, which could explain the swing away from Brown. Mr. Gunter may be hitting his peak at the right time, however, as the Nevada primary is fast approaching on June 11.
New Jersey: Despite being bogged down with a bribery indictment and trial, Sen. Bob Menendez (D), as expected, has filed for an Independent ballot line in the 2024 New Jersey US Senate general election. After the indictment and facing very poor favorability numbers even within his own party, the embattled incumbent announced he would not compete in the Democratic primary.
Irrespective of his filing, the Senator’s re-election prospects are still dismal. The move, however, allows him to use his still substantial remaining campaign funds to pay legal expenses because he is a qualified candidate. Thus, the decision to file as an Independent is more about his finances and legal defense rather than a serious attempt to win re-election. The favorite in the Democratic primary and for the seat remains US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown).
West Virginia: West Virginia no longer has a Democratic Senator. Incumbent Joe Manchin, who is serving his final year in the Senate, announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent. The Senator says he can work better outside the political party structure to help bring the country closer together.
Though Sen. Manchin has already stated that he would not enter the Governor’s race because of his support for the Democratic Party nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, speculation that he will make a ballot appearance before the August 1 Independent and minor party candidate filing deadline continues. It’s likely that we will also hear about a prospective Manchin political move either in the Governor or Senate race as the September 17 write-in deadline approaches.
At the end of the day, the chances of Sen. Manchin running for any office this year are slim. Additionally, attempting to get in at such a late date would likely leave him in an underdog position in a three-way Governor’s race, or against Gov. Jim Justice (R) for the Senate.
HOUSE
AZ-8: Fabrizio Lee & Associates (5/13-15; 400 AZ-8 likely Republican primary voters), polling for the Blake Masters campaign, finds their client leading attorney Abe Hamadeh and former US Rep. Trent Franks by a 28-16-14% margin in the Republican primary battle to succeed US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) who is running for Maricopa County Supervisor.
The poll suggests that the latest Masters negative ad attacking Hamadeh as a son of illegal immigrants, a supporter of abortion, and one who claimed that Israel was behind the 911 attacks is having an effect. A late January poll found the two tied at 24% support. The July 30 Republican primary winner will easily take the 8th District seat in November.
CO-4: A new Gravis Marketing poll released of Colorado’s 4th District (5/22-24; 423 CO-4 likely general election voters; online & text) finds retired Marine Corps officer Ike McCorkle (D) leading Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), 41-27%, in a hypothetical general election poll. This result is surprising in an eastern Colorado 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, which is the safest Republican seat in the Centennial State.
While Rep. Boebert’s move to the 4th District from the Western Slope 3rd CD that she currently represents appears to be working since she won the party convention and has a huge resource lead over all of her GOP opponents, it appears she will have more work to do to convince a majority of the new district voters to support her in November. Of course, Mr. McCorkle, who has twice run for the seat, is no lock in the Democratic primary. He faces his own field of three other Democratic candidates.
The Colorado primary is June 25. A special election will also occur that day to fill the balance of Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) final term. The Republican special election nominee is former local mayor Greg Lopez who is not running for the regular term. The Democratic nominee, speechwriter Trish Calvarese, is a candidate in both the special and regular elections.
KS-2: As the candidate filing deadline closed in conjunction with Kansas’ August 6 primary election, former one-term Congresswoman Nancy Boyda (D) surprisingly filed papers to run for the open Topeka anchored 2nd District. In 2006, Ms. Boyda upset then-US Rep. Jim Ryun (R) but failed to hold the seat two years later at the hands of then-state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R). Now, 18 years after her original victory, Ms. Boyda is returning to the congressional wars.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the open 2nd District as R+21, and former President Trump carried the seat with a 57-41% victory margin in 2020. Retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) averaged 56.4% of the vote over his two successful congressional campaigns.
But, Ms. Boyda may not even make the general election ballot. Businessman Matt Kleinmann (D), a member of the 2008 National Champion Kansas Jayhawks college basketball team, has been running for the party nomination ever since Rep. LaTurner announced he would not seek re-election. Regardless of who becomes the Democratic standard bearer, however, he or she will be a decided underdog to former Attorney General and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt, who is the clear favorite to win the GOP primary.
VA-5: We are fast approaching the June 18 Republican primary that will decide whether Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg), the House Freedom Caucus chairman, can win renomination to a third term despite opposition from former President Donald Trump and ex-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Rep. Good was one of the leaders in ousting the former Speaker.
A pair of June polls find seriously conflicting results. The most recent, from WPA Intelligence (6/2-4; 300 VA-5 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), sees Rep. Good’s challenger, state Sen. John McGuire, leading the race with a 41-31% advantage. But a Neighborhood Research and Media survey (conducted for Media Champions of Freedom PAC; released 6/4; 301 VA-5 likely Republican primary voters) finds Rep. Good holding a similar 39-30% advantage. Therefore, the conflicting data suggests the race is undecided as we enter the final week of campaigning.