The Senate returns to session this evening, and the House joins tomorrow

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  After an eventual two-week Easter Recess, the Senate returns to session this evening, and the House joins tomorrow.  The news cycle during the recess was primarily dominated by the Iran War and the resulting economic and diplomatic fallout. 

Financial Services Subcommittees Review Fraud, Access to Credit

On Wednesday, the Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee will hold a hearing reviewing fraud risk and data protection as it impacts retail investors and seniors. Financial exploitation measures continue to become more evolved and sophisticated, demanding more from existing enforcement mechanisms. On Thursday, the Financial Institutions Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Promoting Access to Credit for Everyday Americans”.

Senate Crypto Leads Continue Negotiations

In a non-update update, Alsobrooks, Tillis, and other Senators involved in the crypto legislative effort are continuing to negotiate. Yield negotiations are waiting on next steps; other ongoing negotiations include tokenization, DeFi, and bankruptcy. If there is a markup in April, it will very likely be partisan.

Senate Plans ICE and CBP Reconciliation

Following weeks of fraught negotiations, Republican leaders plan to fund immigration enforcement agencies ICE and CBP through the reconciliation process, not just for this year but for years ahead. Text of a budget resolution may be released as soon as this week, with Senate Majority Leader Thune hoping to be ready to put for floor for activity as early as next week.  After adopting the budget resolution, reconciliation requires several additional steps, including the “Byrd Bath,” where non-budget provisions are stripped out, and lengthy vote sessions that have lasted all night. To that end, the Senate Budget Committee will have to move soon, presumably this week, to get the budget on the floor next week and set in motion all the other steps to meet President Trump’s desired June 1st deadline. 

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Florida:  Two new Sunshine State US Senate surveys were released during the week. Emerson College published their non-affiliated poll (3/29-31; 1,125 FL likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found appointed US Senator Ashley Moody (R) leading retired Army officer and ex-National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman (D) by a 46-38% clip. 

The Vindman campaign responded, releasing their internal Public Policy Polling survey (4/2-3; 574 FL registered voters; live interview & text) that found the Senator holding a smaller 43-40% edge. 

Iowa:  While the Iowa and national Democratic leadership look to favor state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) to challenge US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) in the open US Senate race, the Democratic primary voters apparently have another idea. 

Bedrock Polling, conducting a survey for the Teamsters Local 238 union (3/26; 1,022 IA likely Democratic primary voters; online), projects state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) to be holding a strong 56-38% advantage in the Democratic primary. 

In two other previously released polls from February (GQR Democratic pollsters; National Republican Senatorial Committee), each also find Sen. Wahls posting primary leads beyond the polling margin of error.

On the positive front for Mr. Turek, the VoteVets organization announced that the group is committing $2.5 million for an independent expenditure to benefit the state Representative’s US Senate campaign.

Kentucky:  Emerson College, polling for Nexstar and WDKY-TV in Lexington (3/29-31; 400 KY likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) leading former Attorney General Daniel Cameron and businessman Nate Morris by a 28-21-15% margin. The May 19th open primary battle to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) will be competitive. The GOP will be favored in the general election.

On the Democratic side, Emerson surveyed 549 likely Democratic primary voters and found ex-Louisville state Representative Charles Booker topping former US Senate and congressional nominee Amy McGrath, by a 2:1, 36-18% spread.

HOUSE  

CA-11:  The powerful SEIU labor union rescinded its endorsement of state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) in his bid for Congress. Previously, the organization endorsed both Sen. Wiener and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) in their respective campaigns to succeed retiring US Representative and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco). 

The union broke with Sen. Wiener because of his opposition to a local ballot proposition that the union and Ms. Chan favor. The two candidates are favored to advance into the general election under California’s top two jungle primary system, where the first two finishers advance to the November campaign irrespective of party affiliation or primary percentage attained.

FL-28:  US Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) has a new Democratic opponent.  Tech company executive Hector Mujica, who recently dropped out of the US Senate race when it became obvious that he had no path to victory, announced that he will instead challenge the three-term Congressman and former Miami-Dade County Mayor in South Florida’s 28th CD.

Mr. Mujica will first have to outpoll retired Navy Commander and former congressional nominee Phil Ehr to have the chance to oppose Rep. Gimenez.  Mr. Mujica will likely be able to raise significant money in a general election, but Rep. Gimenez will be difficult to unseat regardless of the campaign resource balance.

GA-14:  Republicans scored a special election victory in Georgia this week as local District Attorney and Air National Guard officer Clayton Fuller (R) defeated retired Army Brigadier General Shawn Harris (D) with a 56-44% victory margin. The Fuller win was expected since Georgia’s 14th Congressional District is the Republicans’ safest Peach State seat, but the victory margin was weaker than what we have typically seen from this region.

There are two principal reasons for the lower GOP vote spread. First, the 2024 redrawn District 14 is not quite as solid as the seat to which resigned US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) was initially elected and, second, the latest available Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports (pre-election March 18th filing) reveal that Gen. Harris outspent Mr. Fuller by almost a 6:1 margin, translating into a $6 million+ effort for the Democratic candidate. 

KY-4:  Quantus Insights released the results of its new poll testing US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington) in his bid for renomination. President Trump, however, has declared Rep. Massie as his number one Republican target due to his many votes against the Administration. 

According to the QI survey (4/6-7; 438 KY-4 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), Rep. Massie would lead retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who has the Trump endorsement, by a 47-38% clip as the candidates move toward the May 19th primary election. 

The President is “all-in” trying to defeat Rep. Massie, but this poll suggests that the Congressman still maintains significant strength within the district’s Republican voting base. Expect the political temperature to significantly rise in this campaign during the cycle’s final five weeks.

MA-4:  Ex-Wall Street executive Ihssane Leckey, who previously declared a Democratic primary challenge to three-term US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), announced this week that she is dropping her bid. The Leckey withdrawal should mean easy sailing for Rep. Auchincloss in the Democratic primary and the general election.

MT-1:  Montana 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, now running for the Democratic nomination in open Congressional District 1, released his internal Tulchin Research survey (3/28-4/1; 400 MT-1 likely Democratic primary voters) that finds him leading educational consultant Russell Cleveland, Smokejumper Firefighter Sam Forstag, and Montana Farmers Union executive Matt Rains, 35-20-13-5%. 

The eventual Democratic nominee, likely Mr. Busse, will probably face radio talk show host Aaron Flint in the general election. Mr. Flint, who has President Trump and retiring US Rep. Ryan Zinke’s (R-Whitefish) endorsement, is expected to defeat Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Senator and congressional candidate Al Olszewski in the June 2nd Republican primary. 

The open general election will become competitive, though expect Mr. Busse’s gun control record to be front and center once nominees are chosen.

NY-10:  Two-term US Rep. Dan Goldman (D-New York City) is in another Democratic nomination battle with several opponents, but looks to have one clear challenger, former NYC Comptroller and 2025 mayoral candidate Brad Lander. This week, one of the city’s top labor unions, the local SEIU leadership, endorsed Mr. Lander’s effort. 

Though the former Comptroller lost the mayoral race to Zohran Mamdani, he could get the new Mayor’s support since the two cross-endorsed each other under the mayoral Ranked Choice Voting system. The Congressman is still favored, but this will be an interesting June 23rd Democratic primary.

UT-2:  US Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City), having to run in a new northern Utah congressional district due to the court-imposed redistricting map for 2026 and likely beyond, released the results of his internal Tarrance Group campaign poll. 

The survey (3/23-26; 308 UT-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Rep.  Moore leading his two Republican primary opponents, state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse) and National Guard veteran Colton Hatch, by a 61-14-14% spread, suggesting the Congressman is in strong shape for renomination. 

It is also reported that the Congressman’s campaign will report a cash-on-hand figure of over $2.4 million for the 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission period. The filing deadline is April 15th. The new 2nd District is safely Republican in the general election.

GOVERNOR

California:  A David Binder Research poll conducted for the Californians for a Fighter Super PAC and the SEIU labor union (4/1-6; 800 CA likely jungle primary voters; live interview & text) finds two individuals beginning to break away from the large jungle primary candidate field. 

According to the results, former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) places first with 22% of the vote, and US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) is second with 18 percent support.  Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), billionaire Tom Steyer (D), and former US Representative Katie Porter (D) trail with 13, 12, and 11 percent support, respectively.

The poll was taken just before President Trump endorsed Mr. Hilton, and a story broke that Rep. Swalwell was making improper sexual advances to interns in his office. 

A total of 62 candidates will be on the California gubernatorial ballot, including 24 Democrats, 13 Republicans, 19 under the No Party Preference label, and six representing minor parties. 

Further prominent candidates so far polling in single digits are former Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and former Congressman Xavier Becerra (D), former State Controller Betty Yee (D), and ex-Los Angeles Mayor and former state Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa (D). All other recent polling shows a tighter bunched field. The California qualifying election is on June 2nd.

Maine:  Stories are coming to the forefront suggesting that Gov. Janet Mills (D) will drop her US Senate bid, citing repeated polls showing her seriously trailing oysterman Graham Platner in the Democratic primary. The Governor’s official response is that she is moving “full steam ahead,” and her fundraising suggests this is the case. The Mills campaign released a statement saying the Governor raised $2.6 million in the first quarter of 2026. 

The three most recent Democratic primary polls, from the Maine People’s Resource Center, Emerson College, and Impact Research, show Gov. Mills trailing Mr. Platner by a net average of just over 32 percentage points, obviously a significant obstacle to overcome. The winner of the June 9th Democratic primary will then challenge five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the general election.

STATE AND LOCAL

Rhode Island:  The Rhode Island legislature this week passed a bill, which Gov. Dan McKee (D) is expected to sign, moving the state’s 2026 primary election from Tuesday, September 8th, to Wednesday, September 9th. With Labor Day being September 7th, the legislators wanted one extra day in the primary cycle before election day voting. The action guarantees the state will have the latest 2026 primary election.