Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA)
On Wednesday, Republican members of the House of Representatives voted unanimously to elect Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) Speaker of the House.
Johnson, 51, was first elected to the House in 2016 after serving a single term in the Louisiana House of Representatives. Before his election to public office, he was senior legal counsel to the Alliance Defense Fund (now the Alliance Defending Freedom), a nonprofit organization “committed to protecting religious freedom, free speech, the sanctity of life, marriage and family, and parental rights.”
In this Congress, Johnson served on the Judiciary Committee, where he chaired the Subcommittee on Constitution and Limited Government, and the Armed Services Committee. He was Vice Chairman of the Republican Caucus, and chaired the Republican Study Committee from 2019 to 2021. With his wife, Kelly, he has hosted a podcast called “Truth Be Told” since March 2022.
Between now and November 17, the House must act on funding to keep the federal government running. Johnson told his Republican colleagues that he could support legislation to extend a continuing resolution to January 15 or even April 15 under conditions to be negotiated. In the coming weeks, the House will also have to vote on aid to Israel and Ukraine, the farm bill, FAA reauthorization, and a request from the White House for an additional $56 billion to address critical domestic needs. The House had originally planned to take next week as a district work period, but will come back into session at noon on Monday, and has scheduled hearings for next Thursday and Friday.
Banking agencies publish final rule on Community Reinvestment Act compliance
The Federal Reserve Board, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) published the long-awaited modernization of their rule implementing the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) on Tuesday. The Community Reinvestment Act, enacted in 1977, seeks to ensure that financial institutions are meeting the credit needs of their whole communities. Major updates to the rule include:
Expanding assessment areas to reflect the adoption of electronic banking tools, while continuing to recognize the importance of physical branches
Adopting a metrics-based approach to evaluating retail lending and community development financing, using benchmarks based on peer and demographic data
Clarification about which activities qualify for CRA credit
New reporting requirements for banks with assets of $2 billion or more, and additional requirements for banks with assets of $10 billion or more
Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman voted against the rule, saying that while the rule made “several helpful improvements,” it was “unnecessarily complex, overly prescriptive,” would cost more than its benefits could justify, and arguably exceeds the agencies’ legal authority. FDIC Board member Travis Hill also opposed the final rule, arguing that the new assessment methods would not provide clarity of outcomes, and would effectively grade banks “on a curve.”
House panel hears about the benefits of bank-fintech partnerships
We see general bipartisan agreement on Capitol Hill that innovations in financial technology (fintech) can improve access to financial services and make them less expensive for traditionally underserved consumers. The best way to make those fintech tools available to consumers, and what protections consumers may need, remain topics for policy debate. The House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion held a hearing on Wednesday that looked specifically at the increasingly popular Buy Now Pay Later, Earned Wage Access, and Overdraft Avoidance products being offered by fintech companies, either independently or in partnership with traditional financial institutions. Subcommittee Chairman French Hill (R-AR) noted that bank-fintech partnerships had been a valuable way for community banks, in particular, to offer new services to consumers, while Rep. Stephen Lynch, the panel’s ranking member, voiced concern about rising default rates on Buy Now Pay Later transactions. Witnesses told the Subcommittee that the June 6 interagency guidance on banks’ relationships with fintech service providers is overly broad, and will make it more difficult for smaller banks to form these partnerships.
Cryptocurrency not a major vehicle for terrorist financing, witnesses tell Congress
Despite news reports highlighting the use of cryptocurrency to raise funds for terrorist activities, “Crypto is currently a very small part of the puzzle,” the former chair of the Israel Money Laundering and Terror Financing Prohibition Authority told the Senate Banking Committee yesterday. Her testimony echoed that of digital asset intelligence executive Adam Zarazinski at a House Financial Services Subcommittee hearing on Wednesday afternoon; he told the panel that cryptocurrency amounts to no more than six percent of Hamas’s funding. At both hearings and a third one before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations yesterday morning, witnesses told policymakers that Iran is the constant and dominant source of funds for terrorist groups in the Middle East. They emphasized the need for strong and consistent enforcement of existing sanctions against Iran, and suggested the extension of secondary sanctions against nations and companies doing business with Iran. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO), chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions said that Wednesday’s hearing would be only the first in a series of subcommittee hearings about Iran’s role in financing attacks on Israel.
Can adjustments to antitrust law improve competition in the housing market?
Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), chair of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights suggested at a hearing on Tuesday that changes in competition policy could help consumers find more affordable housing. She called for greater transparency in fees charged on rental properties and a closer look at the use of algorithmic pricing tools offered by companies like RealPage and Yardi. Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), the Subcommittee’s ranking member, said that the way to improve competition in the housing market would be to increase the housing supply, and called for reducing regulatory burden, easing state and local zoning and land use restrictions, and making more federal land available for home construction.
Confirmations, Nominations, Departures
Rep. John Sarbanes (D-MD) announced this week that he will not seek a tenth term in the House of Representatives.
The Week Ahead
October 31 at 10:00 a.m. Senate HELP Subcommittee on Employment and Workplace Safety holds a hearing to examine AI and the future of work.
October 31-November 1 Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington, DC.
November 1 at 2:30 p.m. Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship holds a hearing to examine small businesses and America’s outdoor recreational economy.
November 2 at 10:00 a.m. House Committee on Financial Services holds a hearing on “Examining the SEC’s Agenda: Unintended Consequences for US Capital Markets and Investors.” (rescheduled from 10/24)
November 2 at 10:00 a.m. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs holds a hearing on “Ensuring Financial Protection for Veterans, Servicemembers, and Their Families.”
November 2 at 2:00 p.m. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance holds a hearing on “The Factors Influencing the High Costs of Insurance for Consumers.”
The Ellis Insight - Jim Ellis on political news
PRESIDENT
Rep. Dean Phillips: Three-term Minnesota congressman Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) filed to enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary this week as a Democratic challenger to President Biden. Rep. Phillips had been calling for other Democrats to oppose the President, and now he is taking up the mantel. Conversely, Mr. Biden’s campaign announced that the President will not participate in the New Hampshire primary, saying that he will “follow the rules” that he proposed to the Democratic National Committee that changes the progression of pre-Super Tuesday states.
It is likely we will see Biden’s New Hampshire supporters initiate a write-in effort for the President, and Rep. Phillips risks losing to such a campaign. Doing so would likely doom his fledgling national effort. The Phillips campaign is a long shot at best and will likely be short-lived. President Biden remains the prohibitive favorite to win renomination next year.
National Polls: Before Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced his Independent candidacy, President Biden and former President Trump were generally at parity in national polling, with either contender clinging to a small lead or falling into a tie. We see two new national surveys adding Mr. Kennedy to their questionnaire, yet the leader still records the same type of close margins. Dr. Cornel West is included in some polls as another Independent candidate, but it is doubtful that he can qualify for enough state ballots to become a viable factor.
HarrisX (10/16-23; 3,029 US registered voters; online) sees Trump leading Biden and Kennedy, 40-38-18%. In what is now an unrealistic head-to-head pairing between Trump and Biden, the former President’s edge is four percentage points.
Suffolk University (10/17-20; 1,000 US registered voters; live interview) sees a similar Biden-Trump-Kennedy 38-37-14% split. If the two major party candidates were only running against each other, the Suffolk data finds a 43-41% division in President Biden’s favor. Again, with such small margins that don’t greatly change, it appears that Kennedy may be pulling almost equally from both major party candidates.
Alaska Polling: The Alaska Survey Research firm tested the 2024 general election with, for the first time, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the questionnaire as an Independent candidate. Some have been saying that Kennedy on the ballot could force former President Donald Trump below 50%, which would jump-start a Ranked Choice Voting round. This could open the door to President Biden winning Alaska even though he would be nowhere close to victory in the initial vote.
According to the ASR data (10/13-18; 1,375 AK likely general election voters; online) Mr. Trump is leading the field but with just 37% support. President Biden follows with 29%, while Mr. Kennedy draws 17%. In an initial test without Kennedy, Mr. Trump would lead President Biden 45-37%.
Therefore, both candidates would yield 8% support to Mr. Kennedy. The key here for Trump is making sure he does not fall below the 50% threshold, and this poll suggests he would be in danger of doing so if Kennedy continues to remain relatively strong.
SENATE
Maryland: Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando (D), who was one of the first individuals to declare for the Senate once incumbent Ben Cardin (D) announced his retirement, now becomes the first to withdraw. Mr. Jawando indicated he does not see a path to victory for himself, hence his decision to end the campaign. With his main opponents for the Democratic nomination having much more in the way of resources, a gap which was looking to grow larger, Mr. Jawando was finding it hard to compete.
Also, during the week, Gov. Wes Moore (D) endorsed the candidacy of Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. The Democratic primary looks to be evolving into a battle between Ms. Alsobrooks and Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The eventual Democratic nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to succeed Sen. Cardin in the general election.
Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College again surveyed the Keystone State electorate (10/11-22; 873 PA registered voters; live interview & online) as they do several times per year, and while this particular sampling period is long the US Senate ballot test results are consistent with other previously published surveys.
According to the F&M data, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) has a 46-39% advantage over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Sen. Casey runs four points ahead of President Biden within the same sampling universe, while Mr. McCormick’s support percentage is three points below that of former President Trump.
HOUSE
AZ-8: As expected when this seat opened, 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters announced that he will run for the 8th District seat in the 2024 election. In the race is Abe Hamadeh, the Republican Attorney General nominee who lost the 2022 statewide race by less than 300 votes. Retiring US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) has already endorsed state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Paradise), but Mr. Toma has yet to announce his congressional candidacy.
Mr. Masters’s chances of coming through a crowded primary with plurality support are good. The eventual Republican will be a heavy favorite in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-8 as R+22. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 77th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference.
Georgia: In a developing story, a federal judge has struck down the Georgia congressional map as a racial gerrymander. The main district in question is Rep. Rich McCormick’s (R-Suwanee) 6th CD. It remains to be seen what steps the state takes. The Judge is giving the lawmakers until December 8th to redraw the map.
IA-2: Disability rights activist Sarah Corkery (D) became the first individual from either party to announce a challenge to two-term Iowa US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids). Three of the four Iowa districts are competitive, including Rep. Hinson’s 2nd. According to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, IA-2 rates R+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 51.4R – 45.6D. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks IA-2 as the 29th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.
While the district is competitive on paper, Rep. Hinson is in strong position. She won re-election last year with a 54-46% margin against then-state Sen. Liz Mathis (D) who, like Ms. Hinson, is a former television news anchor and very strong challenger spending $4.2 million in her race against the Congresswoman. Rep. Hinson also outperformed then-President Trump in the district by a net four percentage points. Therefore, though the district is politically marginal, Rep. Hinson, who is reporting more than $1.3 million in her 2024 campaign account, is a well-positioned incumbent.
MD-3: Nine-term Maryland US Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) announced late in the week that he will retire from the House after this current Congress ends. In a statement, Mr. Sarbanes said, “before coming to Congress, I also found great reward in working with nonprofits, volunteering and otherwise contributing to my community. That too is a powerful form of public service. For some time now, I have found myself drawn back to that kind of work — wanting to explore the many opportunities to serve that exist outside of elected office. With that in mind, I have decided not to seek re-election in 2024.”
Mr. Sarbanes’ departure will ignite a major Democratic primary battle for the open seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+14. President Biden carried the district with a 62-36% margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks MD-3 as the 79th most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference. In a presidential election year, this race will be decided in what promises to be a crowded Democratic primary.
MD-6: April McClain Delaney (D), a former US Commerce Department official and wife of former Congressman and 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney (D), announced this week that she will enter the crowded 6th District Democratic primary with the hope of succeeding Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The Congressman is leaving the House to run for the Senate.
Ms. Delaney is the 12th Democrat to declare her candidacy. Seven Republicans have also entered. It is likely we will see competitive contests in both party primaries and for the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the open MD-6 as D+1. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 20th most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference.
NJ-7: Former two-term US Representative Tom Malinowski (D) responded to a statewide op-ed piece asking him to challenge the man who unseated him in 2022, freshman US Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield). While Mr. Malinowski has not publicly ruled out running again, his response to the piece suggests that he will not become a candidate. Saying, “I am very happy in my life right now, and looking forward to the next challenge, not backward.” Currently in the Democratic primary are former State Department official Jason Blazakis and progressive left activist Sue Altman.
North Carolina Redistricting: As expected, Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), saying a Democrat cannot win the newly drawn 14th District, announced that he will not seek re-election and instead is now a candidate for the open Attorney General’s position. In a video showing him as a boxer delivering and taking punches, Mr. Jackson said he is targeting corrupt politicians, big corporations, and organized crime in his run for the top law enforcement job in the Tar Heel State.
Like in the nine other Republican districts on the new congressional map, the new 14th that begins in Charlotte and moves west to encompass all or parts of five counties, will likely elect the GOP nominee. All indications point to state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) as Rep. Jackson’s eventual successor.
GOVERNOR
Kentucky: As we draw closer to the November 7th gubernatorial election in Kentucky, recent polling shows a major difference regarding the size of Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) lead over Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R).
The co/efficient survey research firm polling for the Bluegrass Freedom Action Fund (10/18-19; 1,845 KY likely general election voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Beshear’s lead dissipating. According to this survey, the ballot test has closed to 47-45%. Garin-Hart-Yang Research, however, conducted an internal survey for the Beshear campaign several days earlier and found a different result. The poll (10/14-16; 741 KY likely general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Beshear holding a 52-44% advantage. The Kentucky election is scheduled for November 7th.
This election, and the Governor’s contest in Mississippi, could become precursors for next year’s regular election if the voters follow the Louisiana lead. The October 14th gubernatorial election in the latter state opened eyes when Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry scored an upset outright win on October 14th.
Polling consistently showed Mr. Landry leading, but with a percentage much lower than his final showing. Democrat Shawn Wilson finished well below his research projections. Gov. Beshear is favored to win re-election, but if co/efficient is correct, this race could be headed for a photo finish.
Mississippi: The Democratic Governors’ Association released a new Public Policy Polling internal survey (10/19-20; 601 MS likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that finds their nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who is a second cousin to the late Elvis Presley, pulling to within one point of Gov. Tate Reeves (R), 46-45%.
Again, the turnout and voter swing dynamics that we saw in Louisiana might also play a role here. If so, we could be seeing a positive Republican trend. If not, then the Louisiana results would be considered an outlier. Additionally, the 2019 featuring then-Lt. Governor Reeves and then-Attorney General Jim Hood (D), produced similarly close polling within the last month of the campaign. In the end, Mr. Reeves posted a 52-47% victory.
Independent Gwendolyn Gray is also on the ballot. She could be significant in a close race between the major party contenders by keeping the leader under 50 percent. If no one receives majority support, a secondary runoff election will be held on November 28th.