A House without a Speaker

Without a Speaker, the House of Representatives can’t really do anything but keep trying to elect a speaker. The Republican Conference voted first to nominate House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), but Scalise withdrew his candidacy when it became clear he wouldn’t be able to get a majority of votes on the House floor. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, became the Republicans’ choice, but lost three rounds of votes, by increasingly larger margins. Democrats have unanimously voted for their choice, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), but 212 votes aren’t a majority, either.
 
At a meeting of the Republican Conference this afternoon, Rep. Jordan withdrew his nomination as Speaker after losing a vote of confidence. The Conference will reconvene on Monday to choose a new candidate.
 
CFPB proposes long-anticipated rule on personal financial data
Section 1033 of Dodd-Frank, enacted in 2010, directed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to set rules that would allow consumers to request and share their financial data from banks and other financial businesses. Thirteen years later, the CFPB has published its proposal for a Personal Financial Data Rights rule that would require banks and other financial services businesses to make personal financial data available to customers or their agents; allow consumers to share that data with third parties (e.g., when transferring accounts); and let consumers take their data with them when they choose to several a relationship with a financial services provider. Companies that receive this customer data would have to agree to certain restrictions on data collection and use, and consumers would have the right to revoke access to their data.
 
CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said the rule would “jumpstart competition” in the financial services industry by making it easier for consumers to switch providers. He compared it to the FCC’s rule allowing cell phone users to take their numbers with them when they changed service providers: “Rather than being locked in, [consumers] could now switch with less hassle, and that led to better prices and service.”
 
The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is open for comment until December 29.
 
Lawmakers debate road usage charges for the Highway Trust Fund
The need to reform the funding mechanism for the Highway Trust Fund has been clear since 2001, when its spending first exceeded the revenues collected through the federal gas tax. The federal gas tax rate has remained unchanged since 1993, and as drivers continue to move to more fuel-efficient, hybrid, or electric vehicles, the Fund’s revenue gap is widening even further. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act injected $118 billion into the fund, but didn’t address the causes of the revenue gap.
 
The House Transportation & Infrastructure Subcommittee on Highways and Transit took up the issue at a hearing on Wednesday. Although shorter than originally scheduled (because of the need to vote on a Speaker), the hearing packed a lot of information into a 90-minute discussion of funding options. Oregon Department of Transportation Director Kris Strickler, testifying for the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), described Oregon’s voluntary road usage charge (RUC) program, OReGO, which sets a per-mile charge for miles traveled in exchange for a credit for fuel taxes paid at the pump or as an alternative to the state’s supplemental registration fees for hybrid and electric vehicles. Reema Griffith, Executive Director of the Washington State Transportation Commission, discussed her state’s research into an RUC, which has led to a proposal for a flat fee of 2.4 cents per mile.  
 
Pace of regulatory change is a burden on small businesses, witnesses say
In another foreshortened hearing yesterday, the House Small Business Committee heard that the greatest regulatory burden facing small businesses is the sheer volume and pace of change. Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO) said that the Biden Administration had issued 677 rules in the past two and a half years, costing American businesses $430.5 billion and more than 215 million hours of paperwork. Ric Suzio, testifying on behalf of the National Stone Sand and Gravel Association, said that businesses like his, a family-owned construction company with only 93 employees, were keeping up only with resources provided by their trade associations, and still struggling to compete against larger firms that could employ engineers and legal departments. Members on both sides of the aisle expressed concern about the volume of regulations imposed on small businesses, but some Democrats suggested that current federal exemptions for small businesses are too broad.
 
Space regulations aren’t changing fast enough
Then again, sometimes regulatory changes are necessary, as representatives of commercial space businesses told a Senate Commerce subcommittee on Tuesday. The growing space industry needs a one-stop shop for regulatory approvals within the FAA; the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) needs more funding and personnel in order to keep up with demand for reviews; and the FAA needs to streamline its launch licensing process. The witnesses did, however, unanimously ask Congress to extend the “learning period” that restricts the FAA’s power to regulate the safety of space flight participants, which is scheduled to expire in January 2024.
 
Hill calls for bipartisan commission to address mandatory spending
In an address to Washington’s Exchequer Club this week, Rep. French Hill (R-KY), Vice Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee and Chairman of its Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion, called for “a Greenspan-type commission,” similar to the one created in 1983 to address Social Security, to get bipartisan consensus on reductions in all mandatory spending. The federal deficit’s interest expenses are crowding out other spending, he said; if the US were another country, the IMF would be intervening. Hill also endorsed the bipartisan Prevent Government Shutdowns Act, sponsored by Senators James Lankford (R-OK) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH), which would implement an automatic continuing resolution if government funding expires, and force legislators to remain in Washington until all spending bills are passed.
 
Banking agencies extend comment period on large bank capital proposal, Fed will collect more data
The Federal Reserve Board, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) announced this morning that they are extending the comment period for its proposed regulatory capital rule for large banks to January 16, 2024. Comments had originally been due by November 30. The Fed also announced a special data collection to gather more information about how the large bank capital proposal, which is based on the Basel III Endgame framework, will affect the banks involved. The additional data is also due to the Fed by January 16.

Confirmations, Nominations, Departures

Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) has taken the seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee left vacant by the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), and has left the Senate Banking Committee.

Senator Laphonza Butler (D-CA), appointed to fill the unexpired term of the late Senator Feinstein, has been assigned to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

The Week Ahead

October 24 at 10:00 a.m. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets holds a hearing on “Examining the SEC’s Agenda: Unintended Consequences for US Capital Markets and Investors.”
 
October 24 at 10:00 a.m. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy holds a hearing on “The Tangled Web of Global Governance: How the Biden Administration is Ceding Authority Over American Financial Regulation.”
 
October 24 at 10:15 a.m. House Education & the Workforce Subcommittee on Workforce Protection holds a hearing on “Bad for Business: DOL’s Proposed Overtime Rule.”
 
October 24 at 2:00 p.m. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance holds a hearing on “The Factors Influencing the High Cost of Insurance for Consumers.”
 
October 24 at 3:00 p.m. Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights holds a hearing on “Examining Competition and Consumer Rights in Housing Markets.”
 
October 25 The Securities Enforcement Forum meets in Washington, DC, with an address by Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler and a Q&A session with SEC Enforcement Director Gurbil Grewal.
 
October 25 at 10:00 a.m. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Inclusion holds a hearing on “Modernizing Financial Services Through Innovation and Competition.”
 
October 25 at 10:00 a.m. Senate Committee on the Budget holds a hearing on “Bottlenecks and Backlogs: How Climate Change Threatens Supply Chains.”
 
October 26 at 9:00 a.m. House Financial Services Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing on “Moving the Money: Understanding the Iranian Regime’s Access to Money Around the World and How They Use it to Support Terrorism."

The Ellis Insight - Jim Ellis on political news

PRESIDENT

Donald Trump: According to a concurrently conducted series of independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News, in their series of polls project Mr. Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2). 

Last week, Emerson College found Trump leading in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Marketing Resource Group saw Mr. Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the Morning Consult/Bloomberg data sees the two candidates tied in the Wolverine State. It is these aforementioned states that will make the final difference. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the series of MC/Bloomberg surveys.

First Three-Way Poll: Marist College, polling for National Public Radio (10/11; 1,218 US registered voters) is the first survey research entity to release a Biden-Trump-Kennedy poll since Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced he would run in the general election as an Independent. 

While the Biden-Trump ballot test found President Biden leading 49-46%, which is slightly better for the incumbent than most other current national polls, the addition of Mr. Kennedy sees the electorate break away from Mr. Trump to the greater degree. The three-way result is 44-37-16% in favor of Mr. Biden. 

The big difference comes in the Independent sector. In a two-way, Independents break toward Mr. Trump, 49-43%. When Mr. Kennedy is added, the Trump-Biden-Kennedy split evolves to 34-33-29%, respectively.

SENATE

California: Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5th all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization. 

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “…because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country."  Ms. Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.” 

Missouri: Emerson College conducted the first general election published poll of the Missouri Senate race featuring incumbent Josh Hawley (R) seeking a second term. The EC poll (10/1-4; 491 MO registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds Sen. Hawley leading attorney and Iraq War veteran Lucas Kunce, also a 2022 US Senate candidate who failed to win the Democratic nomination, by a 45-32% clip. If St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell (D) were to win the party nomination, Sen. Hawley’s margin would lessen slightly to 44-34%.

Montana: Emerson College polled the Montana electorate (10/1-4; 447 MT registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) as part of a series of polls conducted in several states. Here, we see Sen. Jon Tester (D) leading aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) by a close 39-35% split. The good news for Sen. Tester in this poll is maintaining a lead in a state the Republicans must win if they are to claim the Senate majority. The bad news for him is he fails to even reach the 40% plateau. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who most believe will enter the race, was not tested because he is not yet an announced candidate.

Pennsylvania: The Emerson College Pennsylvania poll (10/1-4; 430 PA registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) that posted former President Trump to a nine point general election advantage over President Biden, sees the electorate switching back to the Democrats when voting for Senate. According to the EC numbers, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) would lead businessman David McCormick (R) by a 41-33% spread, which is similar to Quinnipiac University’s 50-44% margin from their late September-early October survey. 

HOUSE

AZ-2: Jonathan Nez (D), the former Navajo Nation President who lost his re-election bid in 2022, is now looking to challenge for a congressional seat. He is organizing to oppose freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the eight Republican members who voted to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In 2022, Mr. Crane unseated Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) in a northern Arizona district that now significantly favors the Republicans. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+15. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 53.4R – 44.4D.

AZ-8: Three-plus term Arizona US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) announced that she will not seek re-election to her state’s 8th Congressional District next year. The Congresswoman indicated that time away from her family, including her 94-year old mother, while expressing frustration saying, “it is hard to get anything done [in Congress],” led to the decision to bring her political career to a close.

Ms. Lesko first won election to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2008, before capturing a state Senate seat in 2014. After US Rep. Trent Franks (R) resigned from Congress, Ms. Lesko won the 2018 special election to become his successor. She was re-elected to a full term in the 2018 regular election and easily won two additional terms. 

AZ-8 is reliably Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+22. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 57.3R – 40.8D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 8th as the 77th most vulnerable district in the current 221-member GOP Conference. Former President Donald Trump scored a 56.1 – 42.5% victory over President Biden here in 2020.

MI-10: Surgeon and former congressional candidate Anil Kumar (D) declared his candidacy in the Detroit suburban 10th Congressional District hoping to oppose freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Mr. Kumar is now the seventh Democrat to enter the race. The field includes former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga who held Mr. James to a tight 48.8 – 48.3% victory in the 2022 general election from a district rated as a pure toss-up. We can expect another tough campaign here next year.

MI-13: Former Michigan state Senator Adam Hollier, as expected this week announced a re-match Democratic primary challenge to freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit). Mr. Hollier lost to Rep. Thanedar in a crowded 2022 primary by a 28-24% margin within a crowded field of nine candidates. 

It is also likely that another of the 2022 candidates, John Conyers, III, son of the late Rep. John Conyers who held the Detroit anchored seat for 52 years, will also soon join the race. This will be a hotly contested August 2024 Democratic primary, but it could end the way of the last campaign. If more candidates enter the race again creating a crowded field, the more likely the incumbent will prevail.

MN-3: Responding to Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Plymouth) repeatedly calling for individuals to step forward and challenge President Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination, Democratic National Committee member Ron Harris announced his own intra-party challenge to the Congressman. While Rep. Phillips is still not completely ruling out entering the presidential contest, he will now have to concentrate on a Minnesota party convention fight and potentially an August 2024 primary challenge.

Rep. Phillips was first elected in 2018, defeating then-Congressman Erik Paulsen (R). He has averaged 56.9% of the vote in his three elections. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-3 as D+14. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 63rd most vulnerable district in the 212-member Democratic Conference.

MN-5: Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a tight 50-48% Democratic primary victory in 2022, announced he will return for a re-match next year. Expect this to again become a serious primary challenge. Already in the race are attorney Sarah Gad and businessman Tim Peterson, but Mr. Samuels is the key challenger. This seat will be decided in the Democratic primary scheduled for August 13th. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-5 as D+57.

NJ-3: In New Jersey, the state legislature is divided into 40 legislative districts. Voters in each domain elect one state Senator and two Assemblymen. With 3rd Congressional District incumbent Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) now challenging Sen. Bob Menendez in next year’s Democratic primary, the congressional seat will be open. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat since part of the capital city of Trenton was added to the district in the 2021 redistricting plan. 

From the 7th legislative district, it appears that all three Democratic members, state Senate Majority Whip Troy Singleton (D-Moorestown), and Assemblymembers Herb Conaway (D-Delran) and Majority Whip Carol Murphy (D-Cinnaminson) are all potential congressional candidates. It will be the first time the three ran against each other as opposed to being part of the Democratic legislative slate. Ms. Murphy is an announced congressional candidate. Sen. Singleton and Assemblyman Conaway confirm they are considering the federal race.

North Carolina: The legislature unveiled two congressional redistricting maps that will serve as the basis to draw a new plan. Freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District could be one of the seats that dramatically changes under the final plan. 

One of the most endangered Democratic incumbents is Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro). High Point Mayor Jay Wagner (R), looking to take advantage of what is very likely to be a strongly Republican 6th District on the final map, is the early favorite to become Rep. Manning’s general election challenger. 

The other Democratic incumbents most adversely affected will be Reps. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) and Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). The latter man is already making plans to run for the state’s open Attorney General’s office. Republicans are estimated to gain three seats under the final plan.

UT-2: Lighthouse Research conducted a poll of the state’s 2nd District special election for the Utah Debate Commission that would decide which candidates would qualify for the October 26th local PBS forum. The UDC (9/26-10/6; 528 UT-2 registered voters) required that candidates receive at least 5.74% support in the poll. Libertarian Brad Green only posted 5.68%, meaning he failed to qualify under the Commission rules by the slimmest of margins.

Republican Celeste Maloy, resigned Rep. Chris Stewart’s (R) former legal counsel, placed first in the survey with 42.8% of the vote. State Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) was second with 34.3%. Ms. Maloy’s showing should be considered an underperformance for the Republican nominee in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23, and the Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank as the 81st most vulnerable district within the 221-member Republican Conference. The special election is scheduled for November 21.

GOVERNOR

Louisiana: Republican Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Landry, whom former President Donald Trump supported as did the Louisiana Republican Party, scored a surprise outright victory on Saturday in the open Louisiana Governor’s race, capturing 51.6% of the vote. 

Former Department of Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, the consensus Democratic candidate, received 25.9% of the vote in what must be considered a substantial underperformance and a potential warning sign to Democrats. Former gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack, who spent heavily on the race, only finished in the 5% range virtually tied with state Treasurer John Schroder (R). 

Turnout registered 35.8% of Louisiana’s 2.97 million voters, below the 45.9% who participated in the 2019 gubernatorial primary and closer to the 39.2% turnout recorded in the commensurate 2015 election. Mr. Landry will now succeed outgoing Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) who was ineligible to seek a third term. Mr. Landry winning the state now means Republicans will hold 28 Governorships as opposed to 22 for the Democrats.