Progress

Last night, the Senate voted 60-40 to take up a package that would reopen the federal government and fund parts of the government for FY26. Included in the package are three of the 12 annual appropriations bills, including Military Construction and Veteran Affairs, Agriculture, and the Legislative Branch. It also contains a Continuing Resolution (CR) for the remaining agencies until January 30, 2026. The CR authorizes backpay to all furloughed federal workers and prevents federal agencies from reducing the number of full-time federal workers during the period covered by the CR. Not included in the legislation but part of the deal to bring the package forward was a commitment by Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to hold a vote on the Affordable Care Act premium tax credits in December.  

Now what happens. The Senate will consider the legislation this week and, with unanimous consent, may pass the package today. Unanimous consent is possible because it is inevitable that the package will pass, and Senators wish to get home for Veterans Day celebrations tomorrow, thus dissuading objections to moving the package today.  Once the Senate passes the package, the House will be called back into session to vote. House members are normally given 48 hours to return, but this may be shortened so the package can pass the House and be sent to the President this week. There are hurdles to House passage, such as the House has not previously passed the Agriculture or Legislative Branch appropriations bills, and many in the Republican Conference wanted the CR to last until March or a full year. These should not derail the final passage of the package in the House, but may create some drama. 

This Week's Schedule

No committee activities are planned this week.  Tomorrow is Veterans Day.  Remember to thank your family and friends who served in the military for their service.  

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis 

SENATE

Massachusetts:  The University of Massachusetts at Amherst and WVCB Polling partnered to test the Bay State Democratic electorate with regard to the respondents’ sentiments about the coming US Senate primary election in September of next year.

The pollsters queried 416 likely Democratic primary voters during the October 21-25 period with live interviews.  The results found Sen. Ed Markey (D) leading his principal opponent, US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), by a 44-25% margin. When leaners were added, the Senator led Rep. Moulton, 51-28%. 

Another member of the Massachusetts House delegation, US Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Boston), continues to confirm that she is considering also entering the Senate race. In a hypothetical three-way contest, Sen. Markey has an early, though unimpressive, 31-24-20% advantage over Reps. Moulton and Pressley, respectively. When leaners are added, the Senator tops Moulton and Pressley, 35-25-21%.

In 2020, Sen. Markey defended himself against a Democratic primary challenge from then-US Rep. Jospeh P. Kennedy, III. Beginning behind, Sen. Markey rallied to defeat a member of the Kennedy family in their home state Democratic primary with a 55-45% margin. Sen. Markey is again favored to prevail in 2026.

HOUSE

CA-3:  Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) announced that he will seek re-election in the new District 3, which is more rural than his Sacramento County metro district. Though the Congressman mentioned such an option last week, it is a bit surprising that he is making the move, considering he will face Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). 

The new 6th District, which is similar to Rep. Bera’s current seat, will now be open. Former state Senator Richard Pan (D), who had already announced his challenge to Rep. Kiley, now says he will run in District 6 since Rep. Bera has chosen the 3rd CD. The CA-3 seat flips from Republican to Democratic under the new map. Therefore, Rep. Bera will be the favorite to convert the district.

CA-11: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced this week that she will not place her name on the ballot for re-election in 2026, thus ending what will be a 39-year career in the House. Ms. Pelosi was elected in a 1987 special election and has held the seat to the present day. Her retirement possibility intensified when state Senator Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) announced his intention to run for the House last month. Already, former Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) campaign manager Sakat Chakrabarti (D) had entered the race months ago. 

While it was highly likely that Ms. Pelosi would have again won, it was questionable whether she wanted to enter what would have been an active campaign at age 86. Apparently, the answer is no. Expect more Democrats to come forward now that the retirement decision has been made. The CA-11 district is one of the safest Democratic seats in the country and will remain so under the new redistricting configuration that voters adopted on Tuesday. The 11th will change little under the new map and is basically the city of San Francisco. 

Candidates will compete in a jungle primary format on June 2nd, with the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or percentage attained, advancing to the general election. Sen. Weiner, who represents virtually the same area in the legislature, will be a heavy favorite to become Rep. Pelosi’s successor.

CA-40: Under the new California map that will be in effect with the passage of Proposition 50 on Tuesday night, veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) says he will run for re-election in new District 40. This will put him on a collision course with fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) for one of the few districts in the state that is prone to elect a Republican. 

Rep. Calvert’s current 41st District was eviscerated into several parts, giving him nowhere favorable to run. Rep. Calvert, a key member of the House Appropriations Committee, was first elected in 1992.

IL-4: In a surprise move at candidate filing time for the 2026 March midterm primary, four-term Illinois US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who failed in an attempt to win the 2023 Chicago Mayor’s race, did not file for re-election. This opened the door for his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia (D), to step up. Rep. Garcia was mum about his retirement plans in order to pave the way for his anointed candidate to take the seat virtually without opposition.

ME-1: In one of the many Democratic primary challenges forming around the country, veteran US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), whose daughter, Hannah Pingree, is running for Governor, has drawn a significant renomination opponent. State Rep. Tiffany Roberts (D-South Berwick) announced this week her congressional challenge to the nine-term incumbent. Rep. Pingree will, of course, be favored in the contest, but it will likely be a battle to monitor.

ME-2: Four-term US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston), who holds the most Republican district in the country that sends a Democrat to the House, announced that he will not seek a fifth term next year. 

Facing a difficult primary, likely against State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap, who is to the left of Rep. Golden, would then have faced a hard-fought general election against former Governor Paul LePage (R). Maine’s 2nd District is a seat that both President Trump and Mr. LePage have carried three times. This being the case, the Congressman decided that serving four terms, which is equivalent to the Maine legislature’s term limit, makes it the right time for him to retire. 

With former Speaker Pelosi and Messrs. Golden and Illinois US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D) retiring, along with New Jersey US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) being elected Governor this week, the House open seat count will rise to 36 once the two special elections are held to fill vacancies in Tennessee and Texas.

MI-7: The 7th District of Michigan was the only open seat in the country that changed political parties in 2024, and a new poll suggests history could repeat itself in 2026. Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling tested the MI-7 electorate (10/27-28; 557 MI-7 registered voters; text & live interview) and found two Democrats holding slight leads over freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte). 

According to PPP, retired Navy SEAL and ex-Obama White House aide Matt Maasdam (D) leads Rep. Barrett, 43-39%. If former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink were the Democratic nominee, she would lead Rep. Barrett, 45-41%. Both poll results are within the polling margin of error, meaning this race will likely go down to the wire in the toss-up category.

GOVERNOR

California: After publicly commenting that he might enter the open California Governor’s race, Golden State US Senator Alex Padilla (D) announced that he will not become a gubernatorial candidate. The field is crowded with no clear leader, but early polling suggested the Senator was not performing well. This obviously helped lead to his decision to bypass the Governor’s race and concentrate on his duties in the US Senate.

New Jersey: In the Garden State, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who polling suggested was actually approaching the toss-up realm, lost to Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill by approximately 14 percentage points. This is the first time in 71 years that one party has claimed the Governorship in three consecutive New Jersey elections.

Virginia: As expected in Virginia, Democratic former US Representative Abigail Spanberger easily defeated Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The biggest surprise was the Attorney General’s election, where incumbent Republican Jason Miyares fell to controversial Democrat Jay Jones. 

The Democratic nominee was caught sending texts advocating killing his Republican opponents. Additionally, ads from police officers were quoting a previous Jones’ comment saying that crime would ease if more police officers were killed. Still, Jones recorded a 53% victory.

STATE AND LOCAL

California: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s gerrymandered congressional map obtained voter approval in landslide proportions in the November 4th special election, meaning the Democrats could possibly gain an additional five seats in the Golden State delegation. 

Detroit: As expected, Detroit City Council president and former state Representative Mary Sheffield (D) easily won the mayoral position with a 3:1 landslide victory over local pastor Solomon Kinloch (D). Polling suggested that Ms. Sheffield would have an easy run in the general election. She will replace three-term incumbent Mike Duggan, who was elected as a Democrat but is running for Governor as an Independent. 

Minneapolis: Mayor Jacob Frey (D) won re-election in the second round of Ranked Choice Voting on Wednesday. The Tuesday night raw vote tally found Mr. Frey posting the lead with 42% of the vote while state Rep. Omar Fateh (D-Minneapolis), a Democratic Socialist, posted 32%.  The RCV round clinched the victory for Mayor Frey with 50.03% of the secondary vote as compared to Mr. Fateh’s 44.4 percent. 

New Orleans: At-large City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D), as expected, was easily elected as New Orleans’ next Mayor. The result had been expected when Ms. Moreno came close to claiming an outright majority in the initial election. She will replace outgoing Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D), who was ineligible to seek a third four-year stint under the city’s local term limit law.

New York City: State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, running as an avowed socialist, appears not only to have won the mayor’s position but surprisingly did so with majority support. Mr. Mamdani was running ahead in polling during the entire general election cycle. 

As he did in the Democratic primary, he bested former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, this time running as the nominee of the Fight and Deliver Party. Mr. Mamdani slightly exceeded the 50% mark as compared to Mr. Cuomo’s 42%. Republican Curtis Sliwa, who had been polling in the high teens, managed to draw only 7% of the vote.

Ohio: The Ohio redistricting process was completed during the week.  The state has a unique system. A commission of bipartisan elected officials first considers a proposed map. If the seven members, including the state’s Governor, approve a map with a unanimous vote, the plan becomes law without going to the legislature. Such is the case with the state’s new congressional map. Expect Republicans to gain one seat here, with two other Democratic districts becoming competitive. 

Seattle: Though polling suggested otherwise, Seattle Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) has a substantial 54-46% lead over his Democratic Socialist opponent, Katie Wilson. Polling had suggested that an upset was possible, since the Mayor’s job approval ratings are low. While the final result may tighten, Mayor Harrell’s margin may be large enough for him to soon declare victory.

Virginia: The Virginia elections, and the Democrats’ huge net gain of 13 seats in the House of Delegates, means that redistricting will occur in that state. The Democratic map suggests they can reduce Republicans to just one congressional seat of the state’s eleven. This would mean a net loss of four Republican seats.