Fighting the wrong battle

The federal government has entered the second month of FY 2026 without a passing any appropriations bills so the government remains closed for the most part. If the shutdown continues until Wednesday, which it most certainly will, we will break the record for the longest federal government shutdown. No real progress was made last week as both sides are dug in and believe they are winning. In reality, this is a battle of attrition. There are no winners, only losers. Once one side realizes it is losing more than the other, there will be movement toward a solution. 

Here we go again? There was talk last week of how long any Continuing Resolution should last. It has become clear that the House passed date of November 21st is now not far enough in the future to allow for negotiations on health care and other spending issues. Possible dates include late December, mid-January, late March or a full year CR until the end of September. The takeaway is that any compromise reached to reopen the government will be temporary and we may get to do this all again in the near future. 

Tuesday is election day. While the congressional midterm elections are a year away, much attention is being paid to a handful of races around the country. There is a ballot initiative permitting congressional redistricting in California, state races in Virginia and New Jersey that include contested races for governor, and many local races including a mayoral race in New York City. Much will be made of the outcome of the races as a bellwether for next year's election. A year is an eternity in politics, so take all the musings about the results with a grain of salt.  

This week's schedule

The House is out, so all hearings and other actions are postponed.

The Senate is in session and focused on nominations and maybe reopening the federal government. There are no committee activities on our radar this week.  

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis 

SENATE

Florida: A University of North Florida statewide poll gives us the first glimpse as to how appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) would fare in a general election. The survey (10/15-25; 728 FL likely 2026 general election voters; live interview) finds Sen. Moody comfortably ahead of former Brevard County School Board member Jennifer Jenkins by a 49-38% clip as the registration figures between Republicans and Democrats continues to widen. 

The Senate special election candidates are vying for the right to serve the final two years of the current term. The 2026 winner will then be eligible to run for a full six-year stint in 2028.

HOUSE

IN-1: In anticipation of the state legislative special session producing a more favorable Republican redistricted 1st CD, 2022 Republican congressional nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green (R), a retired Air Force officer who held US Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) to a 53-47% re-election victory, announced that she will return for another campaign next year. 

If the legislature draws a new map, it remains to be seen how the 1st District will be affected, but the likelihood that this seat becomes the Republicans’ top Indiana conversion target is very high.

Louisiana:  As the redistricting world awaits the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the Bayou State’s Governor and legislature passed legislation to move the state’s primary in anticipation of a ruling coming well after the first of next year. 

The legislation passed earlier this week, and now on its way to Gov. Landry for his signature, would move the initial primary date to May 16th with the associated runoff election on June 27th. Changing the primary will give the state more time to adjust their congressional map to adhere to whatever the Supreme Court eventually decides. 

Maryland: It appears the Maryland legislature will not engage in another redistricting. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) sent a letter to his colleagues saying that the Senate leadership “is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle congressional redistricting.” 

Basically, the Senate President explained that he is not going to risk a legal challenge to their 7D-1R map for an uncertain attempt to add one more seat to the Democratic column. 

NY-10: It appears that freshman New York US Rep. Dan Goldman (D-Manhattan) will face a serious renomination primary next June.  New York City Comptroller, Brad Lander, a defeated mayoral candidate but now supporter of Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s (D-Astoria) mayoral campaign, says he will enter the 2026 congressional race against Rep. Goldman. Also in the Democratic contest is likely to be New York City Councilwoman Alexa Aviles and possibly former state Assemblywoman and ex-congressional candidate Yuh-Line Niou. 

If all of the potential challengers enter the campaign, Rep. Goldman’s chances would be enhanced since the anti-incumbent vote would be split multiple ways in a plurality election format.

Ohio: The Ohio elected official redistricting commission agreed on a new compromise congressional map that weakens slightly the two major Republican targets, the seats of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron), while still keeping the districts politically competitive. 

The bipartisan commission majority wants to craft a map that can pass the legislature with such a strong majority that it will remain in place for the decade’s final three elections.  The plan now moves to the legislature for approval. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) retains his veto power over the legislative process.

SD-AL: The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (for South Dakota NewsWatch and the University of South Dakota; 10/16-20; 502 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview) used to test the Governor’s race (see Governor section below) also queried the open at-large congressional race. 

There, as expected, Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) has jumped out to a commanding Republican primary lead.  According to M-D, the Jackley lead is 57-5% over state Sen. Casey Crabtree (R-Madison). Incumbent at-large US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is running for Governor.

TN-7: A new Workbench Strategy poll from the Aftyn Behn (D) campaign (10/15-19; 400 TN-7 likely special election voters with a 100-person Democratic over-sample; multiple sampling techniques) finds former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps (R) leading Ms. Behn, a state Representative from Nashville, 52-44%, for the coming December 2nd special election to replace resigned US Rep. Mark Green (R). The margin is likely greater. Considering the Democratic over-sample and the push questions used, the Dem support number here is likely inflated. 

The 7th is a reliable Republican district. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.1D partisan lean.  President Trump carried the seat with a 60.4 – 38.1% margin last November and Rep. Green secured a 59.5 – 38.0% fourth election victory.

GOVERNOR

Michigan: We are seeing the beginning of a tight three-way 2026 Governor’s race. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running statewide as an Independent, released the results of his internal Schoen Cooperman Research poll (10/9-14; 600 MI likely voters) during the week.

According to the survey results, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Congressman John James and Mr. Duggan by a slight 30-29-26% margin. The chances of these three advancing to the general election are high, and this survey suggests that any one of them can win. 

New Jersey: The odd-numbered election year NJ Governor’s race continues to poll close as we move into the election period.  Emerson College (conducted for The Hill news site; 10/25-28; 1,000 NJ likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds the race essentially lapsing into a dead heat headed into the Tuesday election. 

The ballot test projects US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding a slight 49-48% edge over former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R). Considering that aggregate polling under-counted Mr. Ciattarelli’s support in past elections, and could be doing so again, this contest could be poised for an upset.

The winner will replace term-limited Governor Phil Murphy. Should Ms. Sherrill win the race, it will be the first time in 71 years that one party will have claimed the Governorship in three consecutive elections.

New York: Unofficial 2026 New York gubernatorial candidate Elise Stefanik, the North Country (NY-21) Republican Congresswoman, has taken a small lead over Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) according to a Manhattan Institute survey. The poll (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters; live interview & text) finds Ms. Stefanik carrying a 43-42% edge over the Governor who is seeking a second full four-year term.

The margin is more significant than a simple one-point lead, however. The polling universe is over-sampled toward New York City. Of the 900 people in the sampling pool, only 300 are outside NYC. The fact that Stefanik is even close, let alone virtually even with the Governor, when 2/3 of the polling sample comes from a population universe where only 11% are registered as Republicans is surprising to say the least. While the sample is unusual, the poll’s main objective was to survey the current NYC Mayor’s race.

Oklahoma: Now we see a second October poll that finds former state House Speaker Charles McCall leading Attorney General Gentner Drummond for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination. The new survey, from co/efficient (10/25-27; 855 OK likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text), shows Mr. McCall expanding his previous small lead. The co/efficient data calculates the McCall advantage at 40-23%. 

The Oklahoma primary is scheduled for June 16th with a runoff date of August 25th if no candidate secures majority support in the first vote. 

Oregon: Newly appointed state Senator Christine Drazan, who lost to now-Governor Tina Kotek by a tight 47-44% margin three years ago, announced that she will return for a re-match next year. Though the 2022 race was close, Oregon is one of the nation’s strongest Democratic states so Sen. Drazan will be a decided underdog in the 2026 election.

South Carolina: State Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Charleston), a former basketball star at the College of Charleston who unseated a Democratic incumbent legislator with 76% of the vote in 2020, announced his campaign for Governor during the week. 

Rep. Johnson is the first prominent Democrat to enter the Governor’s race contrasting to what promises to be a hotly contested open GOP primary. The Democrats last won the Governor’s race in 1998. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third four-year term.

South Dakota: Another Governor’s race is off to a very tight start. In South Dakota, a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey (10/16-20; 502 SD likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds at-large US Representative Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) leading Gov. Larry Rhoden in the Republican primary by a single percentage point, 28-27%.

Mr. Rhoden, elected in 2022 as South Dakota’s Lt. Governor, ascended to the state’s top position when then-Governor Kristi Noem resigned to become US Homeland Security Secretary. Also in the Republican primary race are state House Speaker Jon Hansen and businessman Toby Doeden. In the Mason-Dixon poll, Messrs. Hansen and Doeden receive 15 and 10 percent support, respectively.

Virginia: The Old Dominion odd-numbered year Governor’s race favors Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former US Representative, but the early vote totals suggest an improved Republican trend. In 2021, almost half of those voting early did so in the campaign’s last week, so the trend can certainly change as Election Day approaches.

The latest three statewide polls, from A2 Insights, Christopher Newport University, and Suffolk University, all conducted during the October 19-26th period, finds Ms. Spanberger leading the race with a margin between 7 and 9 percentage points.

STATE AND LOCAL

California: The latest polling suggests that California’s Proposition 50, which would replace the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map with a partisan gerrymander designed to reduce Republicans to just four of 52 US House seats, appears headed toward passage in the November 4th special election.  

Emerson College (10/20-21; 900 CA likely special election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted a 57-37% spread in favor of a yes vote. Expect a lawsuit to be filed immediately after the election challenging the legality of the new map.

New York City: Six polls have been released of the New York City mayoral contest as the campaign moves closer to election day. The surveys, from six individual pollsters, were conducted during the October 22 through 28 period and contained sampling universes from 500 (Victory Insights; Suffolk University) through 1,019 people (Marist University). 

All find state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D) leading former Governor Andrew Cuomo (I) and Republican Curtis Sliwa by margins between 10 and 25 points. It is likely that Mr. Mamdani will win the race on November 4th, but with only plurality support.

Seattle: If polling is correct, Seattle voters may be headed toward dumping Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) for an opponent who is even more progressive. Change Research (polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute; 10/19-23; online) finds challenger Katie Wilson (D) topping Mr. Harrell, 45-40%. DHM Research, polling for The Stranger political blog (10/6-13; 400 Seattle likely general election voters) found Ms. Wilson’s edge to be 42-38%.

Virginia: The Virginia legislature called itself back into session to pass the first of two bills that would lead to a special election in order to redraw the state’s congressional districts. The proposed map would reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s 11 CDs. 

Voters would have to adopt removing the state redistricting commission’s map in a special election. Legal questions surround whether the legislature can meet all of the requirements for conducting a special election under the current time frame.