Primary season starts tomorrow

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  The House has a short week this week, voting on Wednesday and Thursday of this week after cancelling votes on Tuesday and Friday. The Senate will convene later today. Primary season also starts tomorrow with Texas, Arkansas, and North Carolina on the ballot.  Mississippi and Illinois will take place later this month.

The DHS shutdown drags on, with both sides trading paper but little notable progress. And over the weekend, strikes in Iran have progressed into what is reported by President Trump himself as the beginning of a longer military campaign that could last several weeks. It is unclear what impact this military action may or may not have on the DHS shutdown, but it is worth watching.

In astrological news, tonight, or more precisely, early Tuesday morning, there will be a total lunar eclipse visible in D.C. at 3:44 am. The eclipse, nicknamed the “worm” blood moon, will turn the full moon a rare copper-red and will be visible in the evening in eastern Asia and in the early morning in North and Central America.

HFSC Cancels Institutional Investor Markup: Last week, the House Financial Services Committee reversed course on steps to block institutional investors from the single-family home market. Banning large institutional investors from buying up single-family homes has been a priority of the Trump administration, which has pressed for legislation detailing the policy following a broader executive order on the subject. The Senate and White House have also been working on a broader housing bill with the possibility of including an institutional investor ban; the House Committee says it will now work with the Senate and White House on their process instead of pursuing separate legislation. The March 4th markup will still take place, but it includes a number of other measures.

Road to Housing Heads to Senate Floor: Speaking of the Senate, Banking Chairman Tim Scott’s “ROAD to Housing” legislation is headed for a floor vote. Today, the Senate will vote on a motion to proceed, and will likely begin voting on the bill later in the week. As always, plans can change. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the Senate is working with the White House on how to manage the institutional investor ban, as well as what provisions from the House’s competing housing package to include in an attempt to bring the two chambers into closer parity. 

Financial Services Reviews SROs and Fraud: On Thursday, two financial services subcommittees will hold hearings examining first fraud prevention at financial institutions in the morning, and the role of self-regulatory organizations in the afternoon. For more information or to view the livestream, please visit the hearings page here.

Edward Jones Approved for Industrial Bank Charter: In a Friday announcement, the FDIC Board of Directors approved a deposit insurance application for Edward Jones Bank, which will be an industrial bank chartered in Utah. The approval comes one month after the FDIC granted industrial bank charters to Ford and General Motors in late January. 

Morgan Stanley Applies for National Trust Charter: Morgan Stanley has applied for a national trust charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC began issuing these charters late last year, which are narrower in scope, for federally regulated institutions looking to expand their digital asset footprints. The application comes as traditional banks have been at odds with crypto companies over the yield provision of the Senate’s market structure bill currently under negotiation. Even so, a number of traditional financial institutions have sought ways to further engage in the crypto space.

Political Update with Jim Ellis

SENATE

Illinois:  Public Policy Polling (2/23-24; 546 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) released the results of its survey for the Democratic Lt. Governors Association, which supports Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) in her bid for the US Senate. 

The results still find US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) leading the primary race, but his longtime advantage appears to be dissipating. The PPP results project Krishnamoorthi’s lead dropping to 29-27-13% over Ms. Stratton and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). 

The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17th. The Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election.

Iowa:  While many Iowa Democratic leaders are lining up behind state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) for the party’s US Senate nomination, GQR Research, conducting a survey for the Zach Wahls campaign (2/18-22; 605 IA likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), tells a different story. According to their data, state Senator Wahls (D-Des Moines) leads Rep. Turek by a wide 42-24% margin. 

The eventual Democratic nominee will very likely face US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/ Cedar Rapids) in the open US Senate battle. Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after serving what will be two terms when the current Congress adjourns.

Maine:  A just-released University of New Hampshire Pine Tree State poll (2/12-16; 1,120 ME likely voters; 478 likely Democratic primary voters; 406 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds oysterman Graham Platner crushing Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the 2026 US Senate Democratic primary contest.

According to the ballot test result, Mr. Platner, a Democratic Socialist with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), leads the Governor by a whopping 64-26% margin as the two move toward Maine’s June 9th primary election.

The polls have been spotty.  While UNH has always found Platner running way ahead of Mills, only three of the last four published surveys show him leading. The Pan Atlantic Research survey, from a firm that frequently polls the Maine electorate (11/29-12/7; 318 ME likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), found Gov. Mills posting a 47-37% advantage. 

Overall, however, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, Mr. Platner has an average 20.3 percentage advantage over Governor Mills for the length of their testing period. The eventual party nominee will challenge five-term Sen. Susan Collins (R) in November.

Massachusetts:  The regional UNH poll (2/12-16; 352 MA likely Democratic primary voters; online) finds Sen. Ed Markey leading his Democratic primary challengers, Congressman Seth Moulton (D-Salem) and sportswriter Alex Rikleen, by a 35-23-7% margin. This poll suggests the race is closer than most observers believe. 

In 2020, Sen. Markey withstood a primary challenge from then-US Representative Joseph P. Kennedy, III, with a 55-45% victory. Sen. Markey successfully defeated a member of the Kennedy family in their home state primary after beginning the race trailing in polling. 

Texas:  As the March 3rd primary looms near, Peak Insights released their Republican primary poll for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a Super PAC that supports Sen. John Cornyn (2/19, 21-23; 800 TX likely Republican primary voters, including some who have already voted early; live interview).  Consistent with other polling results, the data finds Sen. Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) tied with 36% support, while US Rep. Wesley Hunt trails with a 14% support figure. 

The prevailing political wisdom is that Tuesday’s vote will end with Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton advancing to a May 26th runoff election.

HOUSE  

CA-1:  Northern California’s 1st District has been at the focal point of California congressional politics for the past eight months, and this week, the CD attracts more political attention. A new candidate declared for the 1st District’s special election, and the individual’s decision to run for the short term is at least somewhat head-scratching.

It was reported during the week that former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) announced his special election candidacy. His move brings political risk that need not be undertaken. If Mr. McGuire simply remained in the Senate and ran only for the regular term, he would be considered a prohibitive favorite, but not so for the special election.

Instead of a 1st District under the current map that read 60.2R – 37.7D and occupied the territory in the northeastern corner of the state that Oregon and Nevada bordered, the new 1st is anchored in Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma and encompasses Democratic territory in the outer Sacramento suburbs. The new 1st CD’s partisan lean is 55.2D – 44.1R. 

On January 6th, seven-term 1st District US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) suddenly passed away. His death leads to a special election that will be held concurrently with the state’s June 2nd statewide primary election in the Republican favorable district. GOP Assemblyman James Gallager (R-Yuba City) is the lone Republican to have announced his candidacy. The special election is scheduled for June 2nd.

FL-2:  Former Congresswoman Gwen Graham (D) announced this week that she will not enter the open seat race from her now open congressional district. Ms. Graham served one term in the House from 2015-17. She is the daughter of former Governor and US Senator Bob Graham (D). After a court-ordered redistricting drew her into a Republican seat, Ms. Graham did not seek re-election in 2016. 

Five-term US Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) is retiring. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the 2026 general election.

FL-19:  Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno (R), who had been contemplating entering the open 19th Congressional District race, announced this week that he will not become a candidate. This leaves an interesting Republican primary since the major participants are all former elected officials from other states.  Incumbent US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

KS-3:  US Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) again made a public statement saying she is committed to seeking re-election unless the GOP state legislators redraw the congressional districts. At this time, it appears no redistricting move will be made in the legislature. Democratic leaders have been attempting to convince Rep. Davids to challenge Sen. Roger Marshall (R), who is seeking a second term this year. It is very likely that Rep. Davids will seek re-election and win a fifth term in November.

ME-2:  The aforementioned UNH poll also tested the 2nd Congressional District general election (2/12-16; 522 ME-2 likely general election voters; online) and found former two-term Gov. Paul LePage (R) slightly leading his two top potential Democratic opponents. Opposite state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), Mr. LePage posts a 48-47% edge. He records a similar 47-46% margin over State Auditor Matt Dunlap (D). 

The 2nd District is the most Republican seat in the nation that sends a Democrat to Congress. Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is retiring after what will be four terms when the congressional session adjourns. The 2nd CD also voted three consecutive times for President Trump.  In 2026, ME-2 is a prime GOP conversion opportunity race.

Utah Redistricting:  A three-judge federal panel in Utah turned down the Republican appeal of the new Beehive State congressional map, saying that the plaintiffs’ arguments are not likely to prevail at the upper court level. The judicial decision means that the new redistricting plan will be used in the 2026 election, which will cost the Republicans one seat in the delegation. The map creates an open Salt Lake City Democratic district while pairing two Republican incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) into a new eastern 3rd CD.

GOVERNOR

Florida:  The University of North Florida released another of their regular Sunshine State surveys (2/16-20; 657 FL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and tested the state’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, against the announced Republican field. Ms. DeSantis has not declared her candidacy and is not expected to enter the race, though the UNF numbers show she would have a competitive chance of winning the party nomination. 

The ballot test finds US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) holding a 28-24% lead over Ms. DeSantis, with all others posting support figures under 5 percent. The Florida candidate filing deadline is June 12th for an August 18th primary, so the First Lady still has time to make the decision to run to succeed her husband, term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Maine:  The previously covered UNH Maine poll also tested the state’s open Governor’s campaign.  For the Democrats, former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah again leads the field with 25% support.  Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is next with 19%, followed by ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson at 16%, ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), at 10%, with businessman Angus King III, son of US Sen. Angus King (I), only drawing 5 percent. 

For the Republicans, ex-State Department official Bobby Charles posts a 28-12-5% advantage over former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, and Jonathan Bush, a relative of the former two Presidents, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. 

New Mexico:  The GBAO polling organization, surveying for the Deb Haaland for Governor campaign (2/9-12; 500 NM likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) posts Ms. Haaland, a former US Interior Secretary for the Biden Administration and an ex-Democratic Congresswoman, leading Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, 56-26% in the Democratic primary. 

The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 2nd. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D). 

Rhode Island:  The University of New Hampshire also surveyed the Rhode Island electorate (2/12-16; 703 RI residents; 687 RI registered voters; online) as part of their regional New England survey series. The RI poll finds current Gov. Dan McKee (D) in deep trouble as he seeks a second full term. 

According to the UNH result data, former CVS CEO Helena Foulkes, who opposed Gov. McKee in 2022, leads him in a Democratic primary by a whopping 34-18 percent. This race has a long time to develop, however. The Ocean State primary is not until September 8th.

Wisconsin:  Marquette University Law School (2/11-19; 817 WI residents; 792 WI registered voters; live interview) released their regular quarterly Wisconsin poll, and finds a very tight Democratic primary race for the open Governor’s position. State Rep. Francesca Hong (D-Madison) leads former Lt. Governor and 2022 US Senate nominee Mandela Barnes and Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez, 11-10-3%, with all others not exceeding the 2% support level.

For the Republicans, US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) jumps out to a big 35-2% lead over medical technician Andy Manske. The general election to replace retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D) is expected to be close.

STATE AND LOCAL

Virginia:  The Virginia legislature this week passed a bill moving the state’s candidate filing deadline from April 2nd to May 26th and the state primary from June 16th to August 4th. The moves were made in anticipation of the voters passing a redistricting referendum at the proposed April 21st special election date. Courts are still determining if the referendum will be voted upon.