Heavy rains and tornado-like winds

Welcome back to the Golden Apple. The District of Columbia retreated indoors today when threatened with heavy rains and tornado-like winds. Such was the level of concern that the House cancelled its Monday vote series. The House is in after a week-long recess; the Senate returns for another week. 

Trump Issues Housing Executive Orders: On Friday, the Trump administration issued two Executive Orders to 1) increase construction of new homes and 2) improve access to mortgage credit. The first executive order on home construction requires the heads of several agencies to review permitting requirements, energy regulations, reform programs, construction methods, and other mandates to reduce regulatory burden and lower the cost of construction. The second order on mortgage credit directs the CFPB to tailor mortgage rules to facilitate more affordable lending at smaller banks and to ease compliance requirements for HMDA reporting. Federal banking regulators are ordered to revise supervisory guidance on underwriting and reform capital and liquidity rules to facilitate lending. These orders are not self-executing, but require regulatory action from federal agencies. The two orders are aimed at reducing costs as affordability continues to be a focal point for both parties ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Senate Passes Updated Housing Bill: Last week, the Senate passed its 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with a bipartisan 89-10 vote. Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) led the bipartisan effort. The House and Senate have been at odds about the bill, with the House frustrated at their lack of ability to engage. The question remains whether the two chambers will go to conference, with the House currently holding out for now. The above Executive Orders also address elements of the bill. 

House Financial Services Reviews Privacy: In a Tuesday hearing, the Financial Services Committee will review privacy requirements for financial institutions and consider a discussion draft led by Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI), making modifications to Title V of Gramm-Leach-Bliley. The discussion draft is viewed as a starting point for broad privacy discussions, and would strengthen consumer opt-out abilities, require companies to minimize data collection, and expand what companies must include in their privacy notices.

Davidson/Barr Introduce Companion Bank Competition Bill: In our February 23rd edition, we wrote about Senator Moreno’s “American Lending Fairness Act” to preserve competition between federally-chartered and state-chartered banks. Last week, Reps. Warren Davidson (R-OH) and Andy Barr (R-KY) introduced companion legislation in the House of Representatives.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Alabama:  A new Remington Research Group survey (3/2-4; 692 AL likely Republican primary voters) finds US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) posting a 22-16-12% advantage over Attorney General Steve Marshall and retired Navy SEAL and anti-Human Trafficking activist Jared Hudson. Former White House aide Morgan Murphy ended his candidacy during the week. 

President Trump’s recent endorsement of Rep. Moore has propelled his campaign beyond AG Marshall, who had previously commanded the first position. The data suggests, however, that a Moore-Marshall runoff election is probable and will occur if neither man reaches the 50% plateau in the May 19th primary.

Georgia:  JMC Analytics (3/7-8; 560 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) tested the Georgia Republican Senate primary. The results found US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) again claiming first place. The Collins lead has now expanded to 31-13-11% over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley and US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/ Savannah). 

The Georgia primary is scheduled for May 19th with a runoff on June 16th if no one reaches 50% on the initial vote. The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge first-term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D).

Illinois:  US Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has led the open statewide US Senate primary from Day 1, and most polling, but not all, still shows him maintaining at least a small advantage. Two March Public Policy Polling (PPP) tracking surveys, however, find Lt. Governor Juliana Stratton taking the slightest of leads. 

The most recent PPP poll for Democratic Lt. Governors Association (3/9-10; 700 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) projects Ms. Stratton to a 32-30-13% advantage over Rep. Krishnamoorthi and US Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). 

A week earlier, the PPP track (3/2-3; 577 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found a similar 33-30% Stratton lead. Yet, Tulchin Research (3/4-8, 600 IL likely Democratic primary voters) sees the Krishnamoorthi margin at a still substantial 39-28%. Change Research reported almost identical numbers. According to the CR results (3/3-5; 717 IL likely Democratic primary voters; online) the spread is 36-26 percent. The Illinois primary is next Tuesday.

Mississippi:  Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) won renomination on Tuesday night in an 81% landslide result. On the Democratic side, Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom claimed the Democratic nomination as expected with a strong 73% showing. Both Sen. Hyde-Smith and Mr. Colom will now advance to the general election. Sen. Hyde-Smith is favored to win a second full term.

Oklahoma:  The nomination of Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin as Kristi Noem’s replacement for the position of Homeland Security Secretary has caused upheaval in the Sooner State political ranks. 

GOP US Representative Kevin Hern of Tulsa has announced his Senate candidacy. Other potential candidates are Oklahoma City Congresswoman Stephanie Bice, and eastern region Congressman Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate).  GOP Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell announced that he will not run for the Senate.

Once Senator Mullin is confirmed as the new Secretary, Governor Kevin Stitt (R) will appoint a short-term replacement. Under Oklahoma law, an appointed Senator is ineligible to run in the ensuing election, so the appointment will not affect the campaign. The Mullin seat is in-cycle, meaning the winner of the concurrent special and general elections receives a full six-year term.

HOUSE

CA-1:  Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), a candidate in the special election to replace the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R), also filed in the new 1st District for the regular term. Mr. Gallagher was undecided about running in the new 1st until the end of the filing period. The consensus Democratic candidate is former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County). 

Because of the new redistricting map, Mr. Gallagher is favored to win the special election under the current district lines, while Mr. McGuire will have the edge for the full term.

CA-6:  US Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) announced that he would file in new District 6, but the surprise is that he did so under the No Party Preference label. The new 6th is designed to elect a Democrat. Currently, Rep. Kiley represents the 3rd District under the current map. When Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) decided to run in District 3, Mr. Kiley began looking for a new congressional district. 

Running as a District 6 NPP candidate is a long shot.  The eventual Democratic finalist, whether it is Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero, or former state Senator Richard Pan, will be favored in November.

CA-48:  In another House retirement decision, veteran California US Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) reversed course and announced that he will not seek re-election this Autumn.
 
The new California redistricting plan was not kind to Rep. Issa, but he initially made statements predicting victory in the new version of District 48. Under the current map, the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation revealed a 58.3R – 39.8D split for CD-48. The new version, in use for the 2026 election, yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan lean. Although the Democratic map drawers sought to make this a seat for their new party's standard-bearer, the numbers suggest a competitive contest could become a toss-up.

With the news of Mr. Issa’s intended retirement, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R), who was running in Congressional District 49 against US Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano), changed focus and moved into what will now be an open 48th CD. Democrats have a crowded field of candidates.  The top two finishers in the June 2nd jungle primary will advance to the general election.

FL-27:  Retired CBS News Miami anchorman Elliott Rodriguez (D) announced that he will join the Democratic field and compete for the right to challenge three-term US Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami). Like Mr. Rodriguez, Rep. Salazar was a television reporter prior to winning her seat in Congress.  Rep. Salazar will be favored in November, but this will be a competitive general election campaign.

GA-14:  The special election to replace resigned US Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R) ended as expected with the top two finishers advancing to an April 7th runoff election from the field of 17 candidates. All contenders were placed on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. Since no candidate received a majority, a runoff election is required under Georgia's special-election procedures.

Democratic retired Army General Shawn Harris, who spent over $4 million in his campaign on top of spending more than $3.5 million against Rep. Greene in the 2024 election cycle, finished first but with only 37.3% of the vote. Local district attorney Clay Fuller, who has President Trump’s endorsement, finished a close second with 34.9%, or 2,853 votes behind Gen. Harris. In the safest Republican seat in Georgia, Mr. Fuller is favored to claim the runoff election.

IL-9:  Public Policy Polling, conducting a survey for the Evanston Roundtable (3/9-10; 741 IL-9 likely Democratic primary voters; interactive voice response system and text), projects Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss holding a 24-20-14-10% lead over political researcher Kat Abughazaleh, and state Senators Laura Fine (D-Glenview) and Mike Simmons (D-Chicago). No other candidate reaches double-digit support. 

The Democratic nominee will be the prohibitive favorite to replace retiring US Rep. Jan Schakowski (D-Evanston). 

MS Primary Results:  In Mississippi’s four House races, we begin with noting that US Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo) and Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson) were unopposed for renomination.

In the 1st District, Rep. Kelly will now face the new Democratic nominee, attorney Cliff Johnson, who defeated state Rep. Kelvin Buck (D-Holly Springs) with 64% of the vote.

Agribusinessman and investor Michael Chiaradio was also unopposed in his Democratic primary. Both Reps. Kelly and Guest are rated as the clear favorites to secure their respective general election campaign. 

The 2nd District Democratic primary had drawn some national attention as former congressional staffer Evan Turnage returned to Mississippi and was challenging veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton). As expected, Rep. Thompson proved an easy winner, recording an 86-13% landslide victory.  Likewise, Rep. Thompson is a lock for the general election.

Fourth District incumbent Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) was also a big winner in his Republican primary. The Congressman topped former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in a landslide 84-16% vote count. He will have little trouble overcoming the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport), who recorded a 57% win over two intra-party contenders. 

UT-3:  Former state Rep. Phil Lyman, who held Gov. Spencer Cox to a 54-46% Republican primary victory in 2022, announced that he will challenge US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) in the 3rd Congressional District under the state’s new court-imposed map. The 3rd District constituency is largely unknown to Rep. Maloy, who represented District 2 under the 2021 congressional plan. 

Originally, it appeared Rep. Maloy and freshman Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) would be paired in new District 3, but when Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) announced his retirement, Mr. Kennedy was able to move into open District 4. Expect the Maloy-Lyman campaign to be highly competitive in the June 23rd primary election.

Proposed VA-7:  Dorothy McAuliffe (D), wife of former Governor and ex-Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe, announced that she will run for the 7th Congressional District if the new redistricting map is in place for the 2026 election. The map must be passed in an April 21st referendum election, and the state Supreme Court is considering a GOP appeal of the entire redistricting process. 

Should the map stand, Ms. McAuliffe will be a serious contender. State Delegate Dan Helmer (D-Clifton) and former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney are also announced candidates.

GOVERNOR

California:  US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) has taken the lead in a new statewide Emerson College survey (3/3-7; 1,000 CA likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) for the state’s open Governor’s position. The Congressman posts a 17-13-11-11% lead over former Fox News host Steve Hilton, billionaire Tom Steyer, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R). No other candidate reached double digits. 

The jungle primary is scheduled for June 2nd, so this primary will continue to change for the next few months.

Georgia:  The recent JMC Analytics Georgia poll (3/7-8; 560 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) also tested the open Republican gubernatorial primary. 

In this race, JMC projects healthcare company executive Rick Jackson to hold a significant 37-22-11-4% advantage over Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and Attorney General Chris Carr. The Peach State primary is on May 19th. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16th runoff election.