Objectively Extraordinary Times
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. Once again, we are writing to you in objectively extraordinary times. We won’t spend too much time belaboring what has certainly permeated everyone’s awareness by now, but will simply say that the political world was shaken for a second week in a row with President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the Democratic ticket and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris.
Since President Biden’s announcement on Sunday afternoon, the Harris operation has been a flurry of activity, locking up the support of federal and state political, state delegations, and state party committees. There is a deep desire within the Democratic party to coalesce around a candidate quickly and forego the circus of a competitive intra-party race.
Underscoring this desire for party unification were the grassroots fundraising numbers, which topped $50 million as of last night. Expect the focus over the next several days to be the Harris campaign’s VP pick. Names floated include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, and Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ), among others.
TBD are the impacts of this seismic shift on polling, both at the presidential level and down ballot. While that will be a developing story as well this week, Jim Ellis provides some insight on the current status below.
Financial Services and Banking Updates
Brown seeks quick FDIC vote
Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown is reportedly forging ahead with his plan to hold a Committee markup next week on Christy Goldsmith Romero’s nomination to lead the FDIC. His urgency reflects a waning Senate calendar and a desire to seat Goldsmith Romero before the November elections. However, this plan may be complicated by the conviction of Senator Bob Menendez on corruption charges. Mr. Menendez has since reportedly signaled his willingness to resign, which would bring the Banking Committee ratio to a tie; depending on when Menendez submits his resignation, the process to fill his seat on the Banking Committee would take the approval of the Steering Committee followed by the full Conference. Executing all of these steps ahead of the vote will be a tight squeeze, but we aren’t sure that Chairman Brown can safely count his votes otherwise.
House Explores AI
On Tuesday, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the use of artificial intelligence in financial services and housing, convening a group of regulatory, compliance, and technology executives as witnesses. This hearing follows on the work of the Committee’s AI Working Group, which convened at the start of this year to work through the ways AI fits into and bucks against our regulatory framework. Look for testimony on the risks of AI, including from a national security perspective as well as a consumer perspective, but we also expect some questions on how AI can be used to streamline the industry for more efficient output.
Congressional Updates
The House is in session Monday-Thursday this week. House lawmakers will pay tribute this evening to the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), who passed away on Friday. The Senate is in Tuesday-Friday.
The final weeks leading up to August recess are always a sprint to the finish, and this one is no different. The House is considering a number of VA and postal naming bills under suspension of the rules.
Also under suspension, the House will also consider the Financial Technology Protection Act, sponsored by Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA), which seeks to “strengthen America’s national security and protect digital assets” by establishing a working group comprised of multiple agencies as well as crypto industry leaders to review the nexus between the use of digital assets and financial crime. The bill was reported out of Committee by a 50-0 vote.
Appropriations Bills Push Ahead
Under a rule, this week is all about appropriations. This week, the House is set to consider the following bills: Energy and Water; Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies; Financial Services and General Government; and Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration. This leaves 3 bills remaining that haven’t yet seen floor consideration, plus the Legislative Branch bill, which failed in the full House earlier this month.
The final 3 bills will be brought up next week.
Senate NDAA Vote Timing Still Pending
The Senate has not yet scheduled a floor vote for the massive defense spending bill, though more than 840 amendments have been filed. The expectation is still for this bill to move before the August recess.
Admin Examines Chevron
The House Administration Committee on Tuesday will hold a hearing reviewing the impacts of the Supreme Court’s Chevron decision, the legal doctrine under which courts deferred to federal agencies in interpretation of ambiguous laws. Witnesses from Georgetown University Law Center, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and Americans for Responsible Innovation will provide testimony.
Netanyahu Addresses Congress
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits DC this week and will address a joint session of Congress on Wednesday. His meeting with President Biden, originally scheduled for today, will now take place on Tuesday due to the President’s COVID diagnosis. Netanyahu will also meet with Vice President Harris and seeks a meeting with former President Trump. In advance of his appearance before Congress, the Capitol Police will be heightening security protocols in anticipation of protests amid the continuing Israel-Palestinian conflict. Numerous Democratic lawmakers have indicated plans to skip the address.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
PRESIDENTIAL
As we know, President Biden withdrew from the presidential race yesterday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee.
The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris. First, President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim to the position.
Second, one of the main points the President made in favor of staying on the ticket was the 14+ million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Kamala Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. According to the June 30th campaign financial disclosure report, the Biden for President committee stated their cash-on-hand figure as $91,566,115. Conversely, former President Trump’s statement lists $116,565,074 in his report. This tells us that stories indicating donors were turning off Biden’s financial spicket until the nomination is settled have some validity, and that the Democratic campaign has lost their once big financial advantage vis-a-vis the national election.
The only potential nominee who could legally tap into these funds would be Vice President Harris, since she was obviously an official part of the re-election campaign. Additionally, according to Federal Election Commissioner Trey Trainor, in an interview with a Washington Examiner news publication reporter conducted before the President’s announcement, he said, “if Biden drops out and Harris isn’t the nominee, then there will have to be massive refunds of contributions to donors to the Biden campaign.”
The Biden committee having to refund the contributions on a percentage basis revolving around how much of the previously raised money has already been spent, and then attempting to convince each donor to re-contribute to the new non-Biden Harris nominee would be a logistical nightmare. It would also cost the new Democratic campaign valuable time, a commodity that will be quickly slipping away after the official nomination period closes on August 22nd at the Democratic National Convention.
Furthermore, the party would not only have to choose a new presidential nominee, but they would also have to select a new vice presidential running mate. Should Ms. Harris become the presidential nominee, some of the names being most talked about revolve around Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose name is always mentioned as a future presidential prospect, would be eliminated from consideration as Ms. Harris’ running mate because both hail from California. As when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was under consideration for Vice President but essentially disqualified because he was a resident of the same state as the Republican presidential nominee, so is the situation for Gov. Newsom. The US Constitution’s 12th Amendment stipulates that the President and Vice President must reside in different domains.
The other items to be decided revolve around how the presidential standard bearer will be nominated. Will they hold a quick virtual vote, or simply travel to Chicago and allow an open convention to commence?
Prior to the delegates taking the floor, the convention rules must be devised. If the convention is to open, different rules and procedures will likely be in place to manage nominations from the floor; the order in which the candidates will be voted upon (the Vice President is normally approved before the presidential nominee, but such an order might cause problems if there is a question as to who will win the presidential vote); time limits on speeches; what other motions can be brought to the floor; etc.
The presidential campaign has again fundamentally changed, just as it did after the debate and the attempted assassination of former President Trump. It remains to be seen how the posed questions are answered, but the new course of action certainly means that a different campaign is on the political horizon.
SENATE
Michigan: Former Michigan US Rep. Mike Rogers, now a candidate for the Republican Senate nomination, this week released an internal Tarrance Group survey (7/8-10; 500 MI likely Republican primary voters; live interview). The ballot test finds Mr. Rogers breaking the 50% threshold (52%), substantially ahead of former US Rep. Justin Amash (Libertarian) and businessman Sandy Pensler, both of whom pulled a 14% support figure. Physician Sherry O’Donnell posted 5% preference.
The Michigan primary is August 6th. The Republican primary winner will almost assuredly face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring after serving what will be four full terms.
New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D/I-NJ) was found guilty of bribery and corruption on all counts yesterday, and key Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Menendez’s home state Governor, Phil Murphy (D), are calling for him to resign.
Other New Jersey officials yesterday making public statements encouraging Sen. Menendez to voluntarily leave office are the state’s junior Senator, Cory Booker (D-NJ), Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), the Democratic nominee poised to succeed Menendez in the November election, developer Curtis Bashaw, the Republican US Senate nominee, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (D), an announced 2025 gubernatorial candidate.
Should Menendez soon depart the Senate either through resignation or expulsion, Gov. Murphy has already said that he will make a caretaker appointment to immediately fill the seat. Losing Menendez, the Democratic majority would retreat to 50D-49R division for the short term.
Pennsylvania: The new Siena College/New York Times Keystone State poll (7/9-11; 872 PA likely voters) again reports a major difference between the presidential and Senatorial preferences. The poll was taken two days before the assassination attempt on former President Trump, so it will be interesting to see if the next set of polling results move in his favor to a greater degree. According to this data, Mr. Trump holds a 48-45% edge when leaners are included and 42-40% on the definitive vote.
Turning to the Senate race, however, tells a much different partisan story. In this poll, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) holds a lead beyond the polling margin of error over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R), 50-42%, or a net 11 point swing from the Trump support figure to Casey’s. This type of pattern has been consistent in most Senate races where Trump is leading a particular state count, but the GOP Senate candidate lags well behind the party standard bearer’s benchmark polling totals.
Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Senate race polling had, for the most part, been stagnant for many weeks with Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) holding a significant lead over GOP businessman Eric Hovde. In the last two weeks, however, a plethora of five surveys were released including the most recent poll report coming from North Star Opinion Research for the American Greatness organization. This study (7/6-10; 600 WI likely voters; live interview) sees Sen. Baldwin returning to an eight point lead over Mr. Hovde, 49-41%.
In all, since June 18th to July 11th, Sen. Baldwin has held leads as high as 7 and 8 points, but then slips all the way back into a tie with her Republican challenger before soaring again. In none of the polls was Mr. Hovde leading.
Senate Fundraising: The Daily Kos Elections staff has once again completed their tabulation from the latest Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports, this for the 2nd quarter of the election year.
A total of 66 Senate candidates filed reports and cumulatively the group raised over $172,000,000 in the second quarter of 2024. The cycle-to-date fundraising figure for the aggregate group is just under $772,000,000. The individual campaign mean average figure is $2.6 million raised for the quarter and over $11.6 million for the election cycle. The median average per campaign is $8.5 million cycle-to-date.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has raised the most for the 2024 campaign, over $57.3 million, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next with $51.4 million in campaign receipts. The candidate with the most money in their campaign account at the June 30th filing deadline is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) with $10.8 million cash-on-hand. The non-incumbent who has raised the most cycle-to-date is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with $38.8 million raised, but his opponent, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) outraised him in the second quarter, $5.4 million to $4.0 million.
HOUSE
IL-11: Illinois’ 11th Congressional District is an outer suburban seat located west of Chicago that begins in the Crystal Lake region to the north and moves south to include the cities of Naperville and Aurora. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10, while the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians set the partisan lean at 51.8D – 43.4R. President Biden carried the district in 2020 with a 57-41% margin. Eight-term Rep. Bill Foster (D-Naperville) won his only race under the redistricted 11th CD with a 56-44% margin.
Therefore, it is surprising to see little known music school founder Jerry Evans (R) already trailing by only a 41-34% margin according to a Cygnal poll (7/2-3; 309 IL-11 likely general election voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Evans campaign. It is these types of polls currently surfacing that show competitive races developing in what should be safely Democratic seats that are largely the reason behind so many House Democrats coming forward to call for President Biden to withdraw from the race.
MI-10: The Target Insyght polling organization conducted a survey for the Deadline Detroit news website that finds Michigan’s 10th District Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills) trailing his 2022 opponent by a substantial margin. The poll (7/14-15; 400 MI-10 “people;” plus or minus 5 percentage point error factor) reveals some head scratching numbers, which spur reliability questions.
The ballot test favors the Congressman’s Democratic 2022 opponent, former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga (D) leading Rep. James 49-43%, despite the challenger languishing in a 10:1 financial deficit. The poll has many flaws, such as blacks favoring Republican James, men favoring Mr. Marlinga, and women slightly backing the GOP incumbent.
Most of the information found in this Target Insyght poll simply doesn’t make sense and should be considered unreliable. Expect the James campaign to soon counter this data with a poll of their own for purposes of setting the record straight.
NJ-10: Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) passed away in late April leaving the 10th District temporarily unrepresented. On Tuesday night, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver easily won the special Democratic primary over four opponents. She becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the September 18th special general election and will then assume the seat to serve the remaining balance of the current term.
The local 10th Congressional District Democratic Committee will meet later this week to choose a regular election nominee. Though deceased, Mr. Payne posthumously won the Democratic primary, so now the party committee must replace him. The meeting was scheduled after the special primary so the committee could simply appoint the person who won the special primary as the nominee for the regular term.
GOVERNOR
Delaware: Candidate filing for the open Governor’s race closed last week, and already we see a dead heat developing before the September 10th Democratic primary. Slingshot Polling (conducted for the Citizens for a New Delaware Way Super PAC; 7/5-9; 446 DE registered Democratic voters) forecasts a 27-27% tie between Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Matt Mayer with National Wildlife Federation president Collin O’Mara only reaching the 7% support mark.
The Citizens for a New Delaware Way is an organization attempting to defeat Ms. Hall-Long. Democrats will hold the position in the general election, so winning the open Democratic primary is tantamount to claiming the state house in November.
Washington: Survey USA just released a new Washington gubernatorial poll for KING-TV Channel 5 in Seattle, the Seattle Times newspaper, and the University of Washington Center for an Informed Public (7/-10-13; 564 WA likely jungle primary voters).
S-USA finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the open all-party primary field with a 42% preference figure. Also predicted to qualify for the general election is former US Representative and ex-King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) who garnered 33% support. Next in the 28-candidate field is former School Board Member Semi Bird (R) with 11%, and state Sen. Mark Mullet (D-Issaquah) who posts 4% backing. The Washington primary is scheduled for August 6th. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) chose not to seek election to a fourth term.