Wishing you clear skies
Wishing you clear skies for viewing a unique cosmic event
Tomorrow night's new moon should provide a dark sky for viewing two comets, Lemmon and SWAN, which will be closest to the earth in our lifetimes. Commet Lemmon will not make its way around to earth for another 1300 years and Comet SWAN for another 700 years. Adding to the night viewing is the Orionids meteor shower and Saturn. Keep looking up!
Records are meant to be broken
The federal government shutdown continues into its fourth week with no real progress toward a solution. The House remains on recess until the government reopens or at least the Senate passes a continuing resolution to reopen the government for some period of time. Each passing day also makes it probable that whatever is ultimately approved by the Senate will extend the CR beyond the current House CR's November 21st expiration date. This will require the House to adopt the amended CR, adding another potential layer of drama. It is unlikely that anything will happen before November, breaking the record for the longest federal government shutdown.
Upcoming hearings
The House is out so all hearings have been postponed or cancelled in that chamber. The Senate Banking Committee is set to hold two hearings this week. Yes, you read that right. The Senate Banking committee will hold two hearings in the same week.
Tuesday October 21st at 10am - Innovation in US Housing Solutions and Policies for America's Future
Thursday October 23rd at 10 am - Update from the Prudential Regulators: Rightsizing Regulation to Promote American Opportunity
Weekly Political Synopsis From Jim Ellis
SENATE
Iowa: Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris (D) who was responsible for hiring what turned out to be an illegal alien with a criminal record as the Superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools announced at the end of this week that she is ending her US Senate campaign. With such baggage associated with her from the school board situation, it became evident that Ms. Norris would not be a viable statewide candidate.
Florida: Ex-Google executive and investor Hector Mujica (D) announced his US Senate candidacy hoping to oppose appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R). Democrats have been searching for a candidate to oppose Sen. Moody in the special election to fill the unexpired term.
Because then-Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was appointed Secretary of State, a special election must be held concurrently with the next regular election. The winner would then serve the balance of the present term. This means Sen. Moody, like appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in Ohio, who is in a similar position, must run in 2026 and then again in 2028 to secure a full six-year term.
It is possible that Mr. Mujica will have the financial resources to compete in what is becoming a more difficult state for Democrats. At this point, Sen. Moody is the clear favorite for the Republican Senate nomination and to win the general election next year.
Kentucky: Two polls were released this week in the upcoming open Kentucky Senate race. The co/efficient research firm, polling for former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) (10/8-10; 911 KY likely Republican primary voters; text & live interview), finds their candidate leading US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and businessman Nate Morris, 39-22-8%, respectively.
Interestingly, Rep. Barr also released his UpONE Insights survey (10/13-14; 600 KY Republican primary voters; live interview) that shows virtually the same result as Mr. Cameron’s co/efficient survey. According to the Barr campaign poll, Mr. Cameron’s advantage is 42-25-10%.
It is unusual for a candidate to release a poll that shows him trailing, but in this case Mr. Barr is doing so. He compares his ballot test with the Cameron data to show that businessman Morris, who is spending heavily to attack Mr. Barr, is not in a position to win the nomination thus proclaiming the campaign as a two-way contest between he and Mr. Cameron.
Louisiana: While a potential Republican primary battle for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is attracting the most attention, former Governor John Bel Edwards (D), who the Democratic leadership had been attempting to recruit into the Senate race, announced that he will not run. Therefore, with Louisiana’s new partisan primary election structure for federal offices, the GOP primary becomes the election that will likely decide who will be the Senator after the 2026 election.
Maine: Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills this week formally declared her intention to challenge veteran Republican US Senator Susan Collins.
In 2020, the Democrats and their candidate, then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon, spent over $60 million against Sen. Collins in a state of just over a million people. In fact, Ms. Gideon had so much money that her campaign coffers still possessed over $9 million after the election. Though every poll but one showed Gideon winning, Sen. Collins went on to score what had to be considered an upset win despite her long-term incumbency with a 50-42% victory margin.
Heading into the election year, the Maine Senate campaign must be rated as a toss-up. Expect the polling to favor Mills, as it consistently favored the Democratic nominee in 2020, but history shows that Maine Republican turnout typically well exceeds projected polling results.
Massachusetts: Six-term US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) announced that he will challenge Sen. Ed Markey (D) in next year’s Democratic primary. Rep. Moulton, who is 47 years of age, will draw a generational contrast with Sen. Markey who would be 86 years old if he secures and finishes another term.
The Massachusetts primary is not until September 1st of next year, so much time remains for this campaign to develop. In 2020, Sen. Markey faced a similar primary challenge from then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III. In that election, Sen. Markey trailed early but used his veteran political experience to score a 55-45% victory over a member of the Kennedy family in their home state. Sen. Markey was first elected to Congress in 1976, and he will complete 50 years of congressional service at the end of his current term.
Texas: Former Congressman Colin Allred ran a strong 2024 Texas US Senate campaign and was one of the nation’s top political fundraisers. A new university survey, however, finds him trailing an entire field of 2026 announced and potential Democratic candidates in the party primary.
The surprising poll result comes from two Lone Star State universities who partnered in conducting the survey: The University of Houston, and Texas Southern University. According to the queries of likely Democratic primary voters, Mr. Allred’s preference figure ranks behind controversial Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, former Congressman, ex-presidential and previous Texas statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Representative James Talarico.
Mr. Allred and Representative Talarico are announced US Senate candidates. Both Ms. Crockett and Mr. O’Rourke confirm they are considering joining the race. With a March 3rd primary schedule, final decisions will soon be made.
HOUSE
AZ-1: Danica Patrick (R), the former NASCAR race driver and current television personality, announced that she will not enter the open 1st District congressional campaign next year. The politically marginal 1st CD is now open with incumbent Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) entering the Governor’s race when October began. We can expect tough Republican and Democratic open primaries along with a toss-up general election campaign to unfold.
CA-3: Former state Senator Richard Pan (D) announced that he will challenge two-term US Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). Should the California redistricting special election referendum pass in November, the 3rd District will radically change. Under the current configuration, President Trump scored a 50.3 – 46.5% victory over Kamala Harris, and Rep. Kiley was re-elected with a 55-45% margin.
Should the referendum pass, the new 3rd CD would have supported Ms. Harris with a 55-44% spread meaning that Mr. Pan would likely become the favorite to unseat the Republican incumbent. From his announcement comments, it appears Mr. Pan will continue his campaign irrespective of the district boundaries.
Louisiana Redistricting: The US Supreme Court held a second round of oral arguments on the Louisiana racial redistricting case on October 15th. The high court ruling on this case could set further legal parameters on redistricting situations around the country, particularly relating to the Alabama and Texas legal challenges as well, of course, as the state’s own 6-member delegation.
IA-2: Former US Rep. Rod Blum (R) who last month announced that he would compete for the open 2nd Congressional District in 2026, already has ended his campaign. Mr. Blum says he can “better help President Trump in other ways that are more effective than being in the U.S. House.”
The 2nd District is open because US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/ Cedar Rapids) is running for the US Senate. On the Republican side, the major candidates are state Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Alburnett), state Rep. Shannon Lundgren (R-Peosta) and former state Rep. Joe Mitchell. State Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) appears as the leading Democratic candidate.
The 2nd District tilts Republican in general election contests with a 51.4R – 45.3D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.
TN-5: Former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) announced that he will challenge two-term US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) next year. Rep. Ogles was renominated in 2024 despite ethics charges being filed against him and accusations that his professional history is untruthful. Gov. Bill Lee appointed Mr. Hatcher to lead the Agriculture Department for his administration in 2019. This 5th District congressional campaign will be a race to watch in the August 6th Republican primary.
UT-4: While it appears the new Utah redistricting map will create at least one competitive or lean Democrat district, former US Rep. Ben McAdams (D) has filed a new 2026 campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Mr. McAdams was elected to the House in 2018 but defeated in 2020. Prior to serving one term in Congress, Mr. McAdams was the Mayor of Salt Lake County and a former state Senator.
GOVERNOR
California: Billionaire Tom Steyer (D), who was a 2020 presidential candidate, is considering entering the California Governor’s campaign particularly since polling leader and former US Representative Katie Porter (D) has stumbled during the past ten days. Mr. Steyer begins his new California political involvement with a $12 million contribution to aid the Democrats’ efforts to pass the redistricting referendum scheduled for November 4th.
Obviously, Mr. Steyer has the financial wherewithal to compete in a California statewide race, meaning a highly competitive jungle primary next June with a large number of candidates.
Maryland: The political rumors that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) would return in 2026 to challenge the man who replaced him, now-Gov. Wes Moore (D), will likely continue with the release of a new poll pairing the two men. According to the Baltimore Banner poll (10/7-10; 928 MD registered voters), Gov. Moore would lead ex-Gov. Hogan 44-37%.
The numbers are not particularly good for either man. Mr. Hogan is running far behind his victorious totals in 2018 and 2022, while Gov. Moore is well under 50% in a re-election poll. It is doubtful that Mr. Hogan will run again, but the media will continue to speculate. Absent a potential Hogan challenge, Gov. Moore should easily win re-election.
New Jersey: The latest Quinnipiac University research survey (10/9-13; 1,327 NJ likely voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) continuing to lead Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Their ballot test finds a Sherrill lead of 50-44%. The race is likely closer with Ciattarelli’s history of under-polling. Expect a tight finish as the contest will continue all the way through November 4th.
Texas: State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) announced that she will enter the Governor’s race, espousing the liberal agenda. Her approach may propel her in the Democratic primary but would not likely be successful in the general election. Ms. Hinojosa faces investment company CEO Andrew White, the son of the late Governor Mark White, and a group of minor candidates. The eventual Democratic nominee faces Gov. Greg Abbott (R) who is running for a fourth term.
Virginia: With the controversy surrounding Democratic Attorney General nominee Jay Jones, the Governor’s race is also tightening because nominee Abigail Spanberger (D) has mishandled the situation in remaining silent and refusing to condemn Jones’ violent posts.
Two of the three most recent polls show the race closing. The Trafalgar Group (10/8-10; 1,034 VA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the Spanberger lead over Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) falling to 48-45%.
The Cygnal research group (10/6-7; 600 VA likely voters; live interview & text) reports a similar 49-45% split. Public Policy Polling, however, still projects a Democratic advantage nearing double-digits. Their latest survey (10/7-8; 558 VA registered voters; text and live interview) shows Spanberger leading 52-43%.
STATE AND LOCAL
New Orleans: City Council President Helena Moreno (D) was victorious in outright fashion in the open mayoral election during last Saturday’s vote. Ms. Moreno defeated state Sen. Royce Duplessis and City Councilman Oliver Thomas, 55-22-19%. The fact that she secured majority support means there is no runoff, and she will replace outgoing Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) who was ineligible to seek a third term.