Welcome to Fall

Welcome to Fall! Today marks the end of summer with the autumnal equinox.  I am always a bit melancholy about the end of summer; fall is also a lovely if you ignore the shorter days and the ubiquitous pumpkin spice.  

Sam Baptista. On a very sad note, my friend and mentor Sam Baptista passed away unexpectedly last month. Sam was one of the first lobbyists I met and worked with when I moved to DC over 40 years ago. Sam was an early client of Eris Group when he was head of government relations at Morgan Stanley. When he retired from Morgan Stanley, we partnered on several clients and coalition efforts until he retired with his wife, Denise Bell, to Park City, UT. We would meet for lunch when I traveled to Utah each summer for the National Association of Industrial Bankers. Sam will live on in the memories of those that knew him and in the hearts of those luckily enough to call him friend. His was a life well lived. https://www.probstfamilyfunerals.com/obituaries/samuel-baptista

Administration Updates

The Annual Fall Classic. Not baseball, but the question of funding the federal government for the next fiscal year. The current fiscal year ends on September 30, 2025. At that point, Congress is supposed to have passed the 12 annual appropriations bills for the upcoming fiscal year.

This year so far, the Congress has passed zero and will need to pass a "continuing resolution" or CR to fund the federal government into FY 2026. On Friday the House passed a "clean" CR ("clean" being in the eyes of the beholder) on a pretty much party line vote and left DC on recess until October 1. The Senate failed to pass either the House CR or the Senate Democrat CR since Senate rules require 60 votes to pass a CR. The Senate promptly recessed until September 29th. The likelihood of a shutdown, according to the prediction market, is approaching 70% but the equity and debt markets are unfazed. 

Like a junior high dance, all the participants are lined up along the walls of the gym during the first song. At some point, a few of the girls (the Democrats) may start to dance with each other. The boys (the Republicans) will stay plastered to the wall until the cool kid (The President) saunters over to the punchbowl and strikes up a conversation with one of the girls. At that point, the dance will actually begin. Like the dances of our youth, 9 days is a long time.  

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Alabama:  A recently released late August Alabama Senate survey (The Alabama Poll; 8/24-26; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters) again found Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) leading US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) by a substantial margin. The Alabama Poll posted AG Marshall to a 37-16% lead over Congressman Moore. In July, McLaughlin & Associates released a poll showing a similar 35-12% Marshall margin. 

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19th.  If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers will runoff in a June 16th secondary election. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is eschewing running for a second term in order to compete in the open Governor’s race.

Georgia: The new Quantus Insights Peach State poll finds first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) falling into a dead heat with one Republican US House member and leads another within the polling margin of error. 

According to the Quantus study (9/9-12; 624 GA likely general election voters; online and text), Sen. Ossoff and US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) are tied at 38% preference and US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) trails the Senator, 37-40%. Former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of long-time University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, is definitively behind Sen. Ossoff, trailing 42-35 percent. 

On the Republican primary ballot test, Rep. Collins leads Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 25-20-7%. The Georgia primary is May 19th. A June 16th runoff is scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the primary.

Massachusetts:  US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) announced that he will not challenge Sen. Ed Markey in next year’s Democratic primary, but Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) was more circumspect about the potential of him challenging the veteran Massachusetts politician. Mr. Moulton was quoted as saying his is “not not thinking” about a Senate run. 

Sen. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976, and to the Senate in a 2013 special election.  He was elected to full terms in 2014 and 2020. In the latter election, he defeated then Rep. Joseph Kennedy, III, 55-45% in the Democratic primary. 

North Carolina:  An early September Change Research North Carolina survey finds Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41% in the Tar Heel State’s open US Senate race. 

North Carolina campaigns are always close, so we can count on this contest going down to the election cycle’s final day. A Democratic victory here would give them a conversion win. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is not seeking re-election.

Texas:  Attorney General Ken Paxton, challenging Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, had a bad week. First, the Texas Public Opinion Research firm released a survey (8/27-29; 320 likely GOP primary voters) that for the first time posts Sen. Cornyn leading, 32-26%. 

It also became public that Mr. Paxton is engaged in another extra-marital affair, this time with a mother of seven children. While both are in divorce proceedings now, the affair began when each were married to other individuals. The affair issue, with a different woman, dogged Mr. Paxton in the 2023 impeachment proceedings that ended with his acquittal in the state Senate.

HOUSE

CA-7:  Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang announced her Democratic primary challenge to veteran US Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento). Also considering entering the race is Elk Grove Vice Mayor Sergio Robles. 

Rep. Matsui, who will be 82 years of age at the time of the next general election, says she is running for re-election.  Ms. Matsui won a special election in 2005 after her husband, then-Rep. Bob Matsui (D), passed away. Together, the Matsui’s have held the downtown Sacramento seat since the beginning of 1979.

CT-1:  Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford), who had been the subject of retirement discussion, announced that he will seek re-election and face a very crowded Democratic primary. Previously announcing for the congressional race are former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune, and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. 

Rep. Larson was first elected in 1998.  He previously served in the state Senate from 1983 until taking the congressional seat at the beginning of 1999.  This will be a very competitive primary election.  The plurality primary is set for August 11th. 

CO-8:  Former US Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D), who was defeated for re-election in 2024 but announced a 2026 comeback attempt, has dropped her bid. Reports became public that she attempted suicide last year and her campaign had failed to gel. We see nine Democrats still vying for the party nomination to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Greeley) who holds what could be the most competitive seat in the country. 

The leading Democratic candidates appear to be state Reps. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and State Treasurer Dave Young. The Colorado primary is scheduled for June 30th.   

IL-8:  As expected, former US Rep. Melissa Bean (D) announced that she will launch a comeback attempt in the open 8th District, the seat from which she was defeated in 2010 after serving three terms. In a primary against nine Democratic opponents suggests her chances of winning with less than a majority are reasonable.  The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026.  ncumbent US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) is running for Senate.

Indiana:  Indiana Gov. Mike Braun is optimistic that the legislature will redraw the Hoosier State congressional map in November. He is looking to add issues to the agenda before calling the legislature into special session. Republicans could gain as many as two seats. The White House has been pressuring the state legislative leaders to draw a new map, but they have been reluctant. Gov. Braun is in favor of redistricting. There is talk of drawing a 9R-0D map, which would endanger Reps. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland/Gary) and Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis). 

ME-1:  Four-term state Rep. Tiffany Roberts (D-South Berwick) confirms that she is exploring launching a Democratic primary challenge to US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland) in the heavily Democratic 1st Congressional District, which covers the southeastern portion of the state. 

Ms. Pingree, the former national president and CEO of Common Cause, was first elected to the House in 2008 and has had little trouble holding the seat ever since. Ms. Pingree’s daughter, Hannah Pingree, a former state House Speaker, is running for Governor.

Missouri:  In the redistricting wars, the Missouri legislature passed a map which Gov. Mike Kehoe then signed.  The new plan will likely yield the Republicans a gain of one seat. The endangered Democratic US Representative is Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City). Defeating Rep. Cleaver would give the Republicans a 7R-1D advantage in the Missouri delegation.

NE-2:  Veteran congressional staff member and Omaha native James Leuschen joined the Democratic field hoping to succeed retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) in what appears to be one of the Democrats’ top conversion races in the country. Most believe the leading Democratic candidate, of the six announced contenders, is state Sen. John Cavanaugh, IV (D-Omaha), whose father served two terms in Congress. Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding and ex-state Senator Brett Lindstrom are the leading Republican candidates.

NV-3:  Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) now sees the ninth Republican announce for the GOP nomination in what promises to be a competitive general election battle. Billionaire businessman Joshua Walters announced his candidacy and likely becomes the second self-funder. Music industry businessman Marty O’Donnell has already invested $3 million of his money into the campaign. In 2024, Rep. Lee defeated Republican Drew Johnson, now a candidate for State Treasurer, by a slight 51-49% margin. 

TX-10:  Veteran Lone Star State US Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) announced he will not seek re-election next year.  Mr. McCaul was first elected in 2004 and rose to chair both the House Homeland Security and Foreign Affairs Committees. He was term-limited from the latter position at the beginning of this Congress. The 10th CD stretches from Austin east to the area south of Waco and north of the Houston metropolitan area. The 10th District is safely Republican. We can expect a crowded GOP primary in this seat.

Utah:  The Utah State Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling ordering the Beehive State map redrawn. The court ruled that the legislature ignored redistricting criteria that voters approved in a previous ballot initiative. The decision will lead to a different Salt Lake City district that should give the Democrats a one seat gain. If such is the ultimate result, the new Utah congressional delegation will likely move to 3R-1D.

GOVERNOR

Alaska:  As expected, former Attorney General Treg Taylor (R), who was appointed to his position in the Alaska governmental system, announced that he will enter the open Governor’s race next year. US Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), again confirmed that she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor, and says she has the “luxury” of waiting months to decide. 

Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Alaska primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Republicans are expecting a crowded and competitive field. Democratic former state Senator Tom Begich is an announced candidate but says he will withdraw if former US Rep. Mary Peltola (D) decides to run for Governor.

Georgia:  We see two new gubernatorial entries. As expected, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced for the Republican nomination while former GOP Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan also entered the Governor’s race, but did so as a Democrat. 

The Republican primary is comprised of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr, and now Mr. Raffensperger. The Democratic side now features Mr. Duncan, state Representative Derrick Jackson (D-Tyrone), former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, ex-state Senator Jason Esteves, and former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond.  Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Minnesota:  Minnesota chief executive Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, announced that he will seek a third term as Governor.  If successful next year, he will become the first Minnesota Governor to ever win three four-year terms. The likely Republican nominee is former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen. In the previous election, Gov. Walz defeated Mr. Jensen 52-45%.

New Jersey:  In the New Jersey Governor’s campaign, a new Quinnipiac University survey (9/9-11; 1,238 NJ likely voters; live interview) again posts Democratic US Representative Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli in their 2025 statewide open battle. This poll’s margin is 49-41%. Mr. Ciattarelli has a history of under-polling, so the contest may in reality be a bit closer.  The New Jersey general election is scheduled for November 4th. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New York:  A new Siena College poll (9/8-10; 802 NY registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) provides Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) with her best ballot test results of the year. According to Siena, the Governor would lead US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) by a whopping 52-27% spread. The previous Siena poll (August) found a 45-31% split. Rep. Stefanik has still not announced a gubernatorial bid, and polling data such as this might suggest that she changes her mind about running.

Texas:  Andrew White (D), the son of the late Texas Gov. Mark White (D) and 2018 gubernatorial candidate, announced he will again compete for the state’s top job next year. In the 2018 campaign, Mr. White lost the Democratic runoff to Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez.  Gov. Greg Abbott (R), then running for a second term, defeated Ms. Valdez, 56-43%. The Governor is an announced candidate for a fourth term next year.