The last week of the scheduled session
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. In what is now the last week of scheduled session, negotiators are working to reach a government funding agreement before the expiration of funds later this week. House Republican Steering named Committee leaders last week, and cabinet nominees for the upcoming Trump Administration 2.0 are making the rounds in the Senate this week. All this, plus the Jim Ellis Election Update, in the paragraphs below.
Financial Services Updates
Introducing Chairman French Hill: Last Thursday, the Republican Steering Committee selected Rep. French Hill to lead the House Financial Services Committee next Congress. Hill was selected ahead of Reps. Andy Barr (KY), Frank Lucas (OK), and Bill Huizenga (MI) and will succeed retiring Chairman Patrick McHenry (R-NC). Hill was seen by many as running in second place to Rep. Andy Barr, but as we’ve always said, the Steering Committee is an insider process where deals are often cut outside of public view.
New Committee Members Named: In addition to selecting Committee chairs last week, the Republican Steering Committee also voted to fill the vacant slots on the House Financial Services and Ways and Means Committees.
New additions to FSC include: Reps. Lisa McClain (R-MI), Maria Salazar (R-FL), Mike Haridopolos (R-FL), Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), Tim Moore (R-NC), and Troy Downing (R-MT).
New additions to Ways & Means include: Reps. Aaron Bean (R-FL), Max Miller (R-OH), Nathaniel Moran (R-TX), and Rudy Yakym (R-IN).
Chopra Avoids Resignation Talk: CFPB Director Rohit Chopra made his last appearance of this Congress in front of the Senate Banking Committee last week. When asked if he planned to resign before the turnover of the administration on January 20th, Chopra evaded the question. He did acknowledge that the President can remove him at any time, as is expected to happen very quickly following President Trump’s inauguration. Many other agency heads have already stated plans to resign.
Congressional Updates
Continuing Resolution Still in Talks: Congressional negotiators are working hard to reach a continuing resolution deal to extend government funding into the new year. Previous rumors expected text to be released over the weekend, but Hill leaders are still in disagreement about a few key elements. The primary issue is over a farm bill extension—the Farm Bill, which initially expired in September 2023, was extended for a year, and is now currently expired, is in talks for another one-year extension. However, divisions around the extension of additional economic aid to farmers have stalled talks. The House is scheduled to leave for the year on Thursday, but with a deal not yet reached and text not yet written, it is possible that lawmakers are here for an additional day or two.
House Democratic Steering & Policy to Vote: The Democratic Steering & Policy Committee will meet today at 2pm to consider and vote on three contested races for committee Ranking Members. Candidates vying for the top Democratic slots on Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Oversight, will make their cases to the Steering & Policy Committee this afternoon. The candidate that comes out of S&P with the majority vote earns the caucus’ recommendation, which gives them a strong leg up in the full caucus vote. The full Democratic caucus is scheduled to vote on each race tomorrow at 2pm. On the Agriculture Committee, incumbent Ranking Member David Scott (GA) faces challenges from Reps. Jim Costa (CA) and Angie Craig (MN). On Natural Resources, incumbent Ranking Member Raul Grijalva (AZ) dropped out of the race, leaving a competition between Reps. Jared Huffman (CA) and Melanie Stansbury (NM) in which Huffman is considered the favorite. And on the Oversight Committee, incumbent Ranking Member Jamie Raskin (MD) will be moving to the top slot on Judiciary, leaving a tight race between Reps. Gerry Connolly (VA) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY).
Administration Update
Trump’s Nominees Make the Hill Rounds: Nominees to head key agencies in the Trump Administration have begun to prepare for their confirmation hearings. Each nominee, guided by a “sherpa”, holds meetings with Senators to answer questions and assuage any concerns in an attempt to smooth the path before their confirmation hearings and votes. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has sparked concerns from the public and some Senators as well, was on the Hill last week holding meetings, and is seen to be in a stronger position now than he was previously. And RFK Jr., who is nominated to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, will be meeting with Senators this week. Scott Bessent, who is selected to lead the Treasury Department, will also be on the Hill later this week.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
SENATE
California: There is a bit of confusion surrounding California US Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Mr. Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41%, for the regular term. Yet, Sen-Elect Schiff is already sworn into office.
This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Ms. Butler was appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.
Mr. Schiff, on November 5th, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified. Therefore, Gov. Newsom appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.
Florida: Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a US Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Senator Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Mr. Rubio.
Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.
Illinois: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term “after the first of the year.” Sen. Durbin, now 80 years of age, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to clinch the succeeding general election.
Iowa: Conservative Iowa radio talk show host Steve Deace (R) is confirming that he is considering challenging Sen. Joni Ernst in the 2026 Republican primary but says he will step aside if a stronger MAGA candidate comes forward. Some from the party’s right flank indicate those activists are encouraging state Attorney General Brenna Bird to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Ernst. State Auditor Rob Sand is another Republican said to be considering running for the Senate.
South Carolina: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.
In 2014, Ms. Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2% of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56% of the vote. While it is clear Ms. Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.
Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Mr. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.
Senate Leadership Fund: Former US Senator Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised over $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.
HOUSE
CA-45: Democratic attorney Derek Tran unseated California GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) by 653 votes from more than 315,000 votes cast and even before he takes office potential future opponents are beginning to test the political waters. Rep. Steel has already filed a 2026 FEC campaign committee. This week, it was reported that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen (R) is examining the possibility of forming a congressional campaign committee.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the CA-45 district as D+5, though it has been stronger for Republicans in the past two congressional campaigns. Irrespective of the statistics, it is clear that California’s 45th CD will be a major battleground district in 2026.
FL-1: Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for January 28th. President-Elect Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, ten others remain.
Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Mr. Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1st special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.
The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the January 28th GOP primary will win the seat on April 1st.
FL-6: While eleven Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual is MAGA activist Aaron Baker. Therefore, Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.
Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.
MA-4: For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, MA electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggest that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Mr. Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.
Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.
If the local Republicans convince Mr. Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.
WI-3: Wisconsin US Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) defeated businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) by a 51-49% margin to win a second congressional term in November. Ms. Cooke is being reported as saying she is considering seeking a re-match in 2026. Additionally, former state Senator Brad Pfaff (D), who held Mr. Van Orden to a 51.8% victory back in 2022, indicates that he is “open” to making another run in 2026.
GOVERNOR
New Jersey: The Laborer’s International Union of North America released the results of their Upswing Research and Strategy poll (11/23-27; 803 NJ likely Democratic primary voters) and found Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) jumping out to an early lead in the 2025 open race to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D).
According to the release, Ms. Sherrill commands 23% support with 30% listed as undecided. Following are Newark Mayor Ras Baraka with13%, US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) at 10%, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney each posting 8% support. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller rounds out the Democratic field with 7% backing from the primary voters’ sample.
Oklahoma: It appeared a near certainty that US Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. Earlier this week, however, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Mr. Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.
During the leadership elections, Mr. Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.
Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).
Pennsylvania: Keystone State US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.
Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting if Mr. Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.
Tennessee: The fact that Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), fresh from a resounding 30-point general election victory for a second term, is still running television ads suggests something new. Now speculation is swirling that Sen. Blackburn may enter the open 2026 Republican primary for Governor since incumbent Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
STATES
Alaska: Voters considered repealing Alaska’s top four jungle primary system, and the end result proved razor thin. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), the state’s chief elections officer, called for a recount of the final vote and the result was just released. The secondary count confirmed that the repeal measure was defeated, by an official 743 votes from a voter turnout of over 321,000 individuals.
The final tally means the present system of having a jungle primary that sends four individuals regardless of political party affiliation to the general election and the Ranked Choice Voting system deciding any plurality result will continue.
Arkansas: According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the Governor, state Attorney General, and the Secretary of State would appoint those serving.
The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the Governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.