Senate approves funding to March 11, leaves postal reform undone

Senate approves funding to March 11, leaves postal reform undone
Last night the Senate voted 65-27 to extend funding for the federal government another three weeks, preventing a shutdown. Work continues on an omnibus funding bill. The Senate left town without voting on HR 3076, the Postal Service Reform Act of 2022, but Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said they would take it up after they return on February 28.

All eyes on crypto
Lawmakers who saw all those Super Bowl ads continued to focus on virtual currencies this week. On Tuesday, Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang discussed the President’s Working Group’s recommendations for a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins before the Senate Banking Committee. Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-OH) warned that unregulated stablecoins could endanger the economy, while Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA), the Committee’s ranking member, said that he saw “tremendous potential” for the adoption of stablecoins as a medium of exchange. Chairman Brown did say, however, that he agreed with several of Senator Toomey’s guiding principles for stablecoin legislation, and both men said they could find common ground.

GOP boycott delays vote on Fed nominees
The Senate Banking Committee did not vote as scheduled this week on five nominations to the Federal Reserve Board and the nomination of Sandra Thompson to be Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The panel’s Republican members chose not to attend, leaving the Committee without the required quorum. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown (D-OH) called the boycott a “political stunt,” and said that Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-PA) was “holding up our fight against inflation.” Republicans said they were willing to vote on all the nominations except that of former Treasury Under Secretary, former Fed Governor and former Maryland Bank Commissioner Sarah Bloom Raskin, who is President Biden’s choice to be Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board for Financial Supervision. Senator Toomey said that Raskin had been “less than candid” in response to members’ questions, and had failed to disclose “hundreds of pages of writing and hours of speeches.”

CFPB invites public petitions for rulemaking
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau launched a process this week to allow members of the public to petition “for the issuance, amendment, or repeal of a CFPB rule.” Petitions should include the petitioner’s name and contact information; the type of action requested (rulemaking, repeal, or amendment), the factual and legal reasons for the requested action, and the expected effects of the proposed action on stakeholders. The Bureau’s announcement said that this was “part of a series of steps the CFPB is taking to ensure high standards of transparency and ethics, particularly when it comes to addressing the corrosive effects of the ‘revolving door.’”

Treasury’s Federal Insurance Office joins global climate group
The Federal Insurance Office announced yesterday that it had joined the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Regulators founded the NGFS at the 2017 Paris One Planet Summit to facilitate sharing of best practices, to cooperate in developing standards for managing environment and climate risk in the financial sector, and to mobilize mainstream finance to support the transition to a sustainable economy. FIO Director Steven Seitz said that assessing climate-related financial risks to the insurance sector was a top priority for the Treasury Department. FIO plans to publish a report later this year that identifies climate-related issues or gaps in the supervision and regulation of insurers, analyzes climate-related disclosures, and evaluates the potential effects on US financial stability.

New York regulator wants to lead on climate risk, crypto
In a wide-ranging conversation with Aaron Klein of the Brookings Institution this week, New York Superintendent of Financial Services Adrienne A. Harris laid out an ambitious agenda for her department, vowing to lead the way on climate risk management and fintech regulation, among other areas. Harris created a Climate Division at the Department last November, the nation’s first such state-level regulatory office. The division has already proposed climate-risk guidance for its regulated insurers, and Harris said that guidance for their regulated banks will follow later this year. The Department is also modernizing its first-in-the-nation BitLicense regulation for virtual currency businesses, originally promulgated in 2015. Harris said she was determined to preserve New York’s status as the world’s financial capital.

Confirmations, Nominations, Departures

Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN), elected to the House in 2017, died yesterday after a recurrence of kidney cancer. Our deepest sympathies to his family, staff, and constituents.

Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-NY) announced that she will retire from the House of Representatives at the end of this term, her fourth in office.

It’s getting late for incumbents up for reelection this year to decide whether they’re running. Six Senators have announced plans to retire at end of this term: Richard Burr (R-NC), Patrick Toomey (R-PA), Rob Portman (R-OH), Richard Shelby (R-AL), Roy Blunt (R-MO), and Patrick Leahy (D-VT). Forty-three members of the House of Representatives — 30 Democrats, 13 Republicans — are either retiring or running for other offices.

The Week Ahead

Both House and Senate are out of town until February 28, and GrayRobinson’s Washington office will be closed on Monday, February 21. Barring unforeseen newsworthy events, The Golden Apple will take next week off, and will return on Friday, March 4.

The Ellis Insight - Jim Ellis on political news

SENATE

Alabama: The Republican Senate primary is now becoming a three-way affair, as former “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant apparently has become a legitimate third contender in the coming nomination election scheduled for May 24th. According to three surveys conducted since January 25th, what originally looked to be a potential outright win for US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) now appears surely headed for a secondary runoff election.

Cherry Communications reports on their latest survey (2/2-6; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) conducted for the political arm of the Alabama Farmers Federation. The results post Congressman Brooks to a 34-29-24% lead over former Business Council of Alabama president and CEO Katie Britt, whom FarmPAC supports, and Mr. Durant, who now runs a defense engineering company headquartered in Alabama.

Earlier, Ms. Britt released her internal Deep Root Analytics survey (1/29-31; 2,088 AL likely GOP primary voters; live interview; automated response calls; and online) that gave her a slight 29-28-23% split over Rep. Brooks and Mr. Durant. Finally, WPA Intelligence, polling for the Club for Growth who supports Rep. Brooks (1/25-27; 513 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview), saw the Congressman holding a 35-30-25% edge over Mr. Durant, who vaulted into second position in this poll, and Ms. Britt.

Arizona: Solar Company executive Jim Lamon (R), who launched a major TV media blitz to promote his fledgling US Senate campaign, appears to be on the right track. According to a new independent co/efficent Arizona GOP primary poll (2/6-8; 755 AZ likely Republican primary voters; text & automated interview responses), Attorney General Mark Brnovich continues to lead the crowded primary, but his margin over Mr. Lamon is now only 17-13%. Closely following is venture capitalist Blake Masters at 12%, while former Arizona Adjutant General Mick McGuire posts only 3% support.

Ohio: A pair of new statewide Republican US Senate primary surveys finds businessman Mike Gibbons overtaking former state Treasurer Josh Mandel to claim first place in the battle to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R).

A co/efficent survey (2/6-8; 613 OH likely Republican primary voters; text & automated interview responses) posts Mr. Gibbons to a 20-18% lead over Mr. Mandel, with state Senator and Cleveland Guardians MLB club minority owner Mike Dolan, former state Republican Party chair Jane Timken, who Sen. Portman supports, and author J.D. Vance trailing with 7-6 and 5% support, respectively.

The new Cygnal research firm’s internal poll for the Gibbons campaign (2/8-10; 609 OH likely Republican primary voters; SMS text & email) gives their candidate a much larger margin over the rest of the field. The Cygnal numbers find Mr. Gibbons holding 23% support, with Mandel, Vance, Timken, and Dolan trailing with 11-9-8 and 6%, respectively. The Gibbons’ media blitz, to an extent featuring Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) endorsing the investment banker’s candidacy, has clearly succeeded in making Mr. Gibbons a top-tier candidate. The Ohio primary is May 3rd.

Pennsylvania: The Trafalgar Group tested the Pennsylvania GOP electorate for the upcoming May 17th US Senate primary. The survey (2/1-4; 1,070 PA GOP likely primary voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; text) finds Dr. Mehmet Oz leading the Republican field, with former US Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands making a significant upward move.

Dr. Oz pulls the largest preference share at 27% with former hedge fund CEO David McCormick second at 16%, virtually tied with Ms. Sands who polled 15% support. No other candidate reached double digits. On the Democratic side, previous polls have consistently found Lt. Gov. John Fetterman running substantially ahead of Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh). The Pennsylvania general election will be one of the top national 2022 Senate campaigns.

Utah: Former US Rep. Ben McAdams (D) is suggesting to Utah Democratic Party leaders that they not file a candidate for the US Senate nomination to oppose Sen. Mike Lee (R), who is running for a third term. Instead, Mr. McAdams is suggesting that Democrats coalesce with Independent candidate Evan McMullin, the former presidential candidate who received over 21% of the Utah vote in 2016, placing just behind Hillary Clinton’s 27%. Regardless of what the Democrats decide, Sen. Lee is a prohibitive favorite for re-election in the autumn.

HOUSE

NJ-7: US Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) late this week released his internal GQR survey (1/19-27; 600 NJ likely voters; live interview) that projects the two-term incumbent falling into a flat tie with 2020 Republican nominee and former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. The ballot test results find both candidates receiving 46% support. In the 2020 congressional race, Rep. Malinowski defeated Mr. Kean with a small 51-49% margin.

NY-16: Freshman US Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), who unseated veteran Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, now faces an intra-party challenge of his own. Westchester County Legislator and former United Nations official Vedat Gashi made his candidacy official this week. Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano (D), a former state Assemblyman, is also considering entering the contest. With almost one-quarter added territory because the new 16th district is losing its Bronx section, the Democratic primary, scheduled for June 28th, could again become interesting. The NY candidate filing deadline is April 7th.

NY-18: A new BK Strategies survey of New York’s Orange County anchored 18th Congressional District (2/5-7; 300 NY-18 likely general election voters) finds Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman and five-term Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) falling into a dead heat contest in his own re-election.

Though the new Empire State Redistricting plan slightly increased the district’s Democratic vote, reportedly under the Congressman’s guidance (538 organization stats: new district D+3; current district EVEN), the BK poll stakes Assemblyman Colin Schmitt (R-South Salem) to a one-point lead, 38-37% over the Democratic incumbent. Even though the district should play a bit more in Rep. Maloney’s favor, this will be a GOP targeted November contest.

RI-2: Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R), who was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in both 2014 and 2018, announced that he will enter the open 2nd Congressional District race in hope of succeeding retiring 11-term Congressman Jim Langevin (D-Warwick).

Redistricting won’t change the state’s two congressional districts substantially, as the 1st District needs to shed only 5,617 people to the 2nd, and that will likely come from the Providence area. Both seats will remain reliably Democratic. Since it was believed that Rhode Island might lose one of its districts in reapportionment, at 548,690 residents per district the state has the second smallest CDs in the country.

Mr. Fung is a prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination, but will be a decided underdog to whomever wins the crowded Democratic primary. The Rhode Island nomination election won’t occur until September 13th.

WA-3: The Trafalgar Group surveyed the WA-3 jungle primary race, and they again find, as was the case in their late October poll, that Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Battle Ground/Vancouver) is in danger of not qualifying for the general election.

According to Trafalgar’s latest study (2/11-14; 697 WA-3 likely jungle primary voters; live interview; interactive voice response system; text), Democrat Brent Hennrich would place first with 33%, thus coalescing a large share of his party’s vote, with retired Army officer Joe Kent (R) placing second at 26%. Rep. Herrera Beutler places third with 22%. Two other Republicans combine for 17%.

Under the Washington system, all candidates are placed on the August 2nd primary ballot, with the top two finishers advancing into the general election regardless of party preference. Rep. Herrera Beutler is one of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump, and most of them are having problems in their succeeding GOP primary. The former President has endorsed Mr. Kent in this contest.

WV-2: WPA Intelligence released a new internal survey for Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) as he faces fellow GOP Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) in a paired-incumbent new 2nd District. The Mountain State lost a seat in reapportionment, hence the need for the two being placed in the same CD.

According to the WPAi study (2/2-3; 406 WV-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), Rep. Mooney would command a 43-28% lead. A month before, Public Opinion Strategies released a survey (1/4-6; 400 WV-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) giving Mr. Mooney a similar 45-32% advantage. Before the first of the year, polling posted Rep. McKinley to the lead. Additionally, while former President Trump supports Rep. Mooney, Gov. Jim Justice (R) this week announced his endorsement of Rep. McKinley.

WY-AL: In what may be an unprecedented move, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) endorsed attorney Harriet Hageman in her Republican primary challenge to at-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson). The fact that the party leader would support a challenge against one of his own incumbents is an astonishing statement as to how ostracized Rep. Cheney is from her own party. The McCarthy endorsement will now mean that the official Republican Party political apparatus can also get behind Ms. Hageman.

GOVERNOR

Alabama: GOP Gov. Kay Ivey defends her position against two challengers with either name ID or money, and the first post-candidate filing deadline poll finds the Governor positioned to win the nomination without facing a runoff. Cherry Communications, polling for the Alabama Farmers Federation’s political arm, FarmPAC (2/2-6; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview) sees the Governor holding a major 55-11-10% lead over businessman Tim James and former US Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard.

Michigan: The Democratic survey research firm Blueprint Polling (2/1-4; 632 MI likely and probable general election voters; live interview) finds former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) falling into a dead heat with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). The two are tied at 44%, according to the Blueprint results. The other significant positive for Mr. Craig, as the crosstabs revealed, is his 41-32% advantage over the Governor among Independents.

Mr. Craig has been polling close in other early campaign surveys, to the point where all four studies released since the first of the year, from four different pollsters, find the Governor’s race general election projections within the polling margin of error.

Pennsylvania: The Trafalgar Group released a new Republican primary survey in the Keystone State of Pennsylvania (2/1-4; 1,070 PA likely GOP primary voters; live interview, integrated voice response system, text message, and email) and projects that former Congressman Lou Barletta is topping state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville) by a 24-20% margin. Messrs. Barletta and Mastriano are the only two candidates who break into double-digit support.

State Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman (R-Bellefonte) lags badly behind at only a 5% preference level, just ahead of former US Attorney Bill McSwain and state Sen. Scott Martin (R-Lancaster) who both registered 4%. Sen. Martin, however, recently announced his withdrawal from the race after severely breaking a leg that will lead to a long rehab period. The eventual Republican nominee will face consensus Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro, the state’s Attorney General. The Pennsylvania primary is May 17th.