Momentum grows for TikTok ban as legislation passes House

Mar 15

The Buzz on the Hill

Momentum grows for TikTok ban as legislation passes House
This week, the House passed legislation that would force ByteDance to sell TikTok to a U.S. company within 180 days or be banned from U.S. app stores. The legislation was introduced by Select Committee on China Chair Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) last week and quickly picked up steam as it overwhelmingly passed the House by a vote of 352-65-1. Attention now turns to the Senate, where there is no clear consensus among the Democrats. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has yet to indicate which way he is leaning on the bill. Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-VA) has backed the House bill, while Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-WA) has already come out against the bill. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden said he will sign the bill if it reaches his desk, and the White House is urging the Senate to act quickly on this legislation. On the other hand, former President Donald Trump has expressed opposition to the bill, even though he supported efforts to ban the app when he was in office.

President Biden unveils FY2025 Budget Proposal
On Monday, President Biden revealed his plans for the federal government’s FY2025 budget. The budget featured $7.3 trillion in total spending. The goal of this budget is to raise revenue through tax policies, including increasing the corporate tax to 28%, reducing tax breaks for the oil and gas industry, and increasing taxes on billionaires. This would help reduce the deficit and bring down the debt over time. The budget includes $1.63 trillion in total discretionary spending, with $849.8 billion appropriated for Defense. The Departments of Human Health Services and Veterans Affairs would receive the largest portions of the non-defense budget and the Departments of Energy and Agriculture would receive the largest increases in funding. The FY2025 budget has a long road ahead, with the President’s budget, particularly the revenue raisers, being unlikely to pass a split Congress. In addition, Congress is still working to finalize spending for portions of the FY2024 budget before the March 22 deadline.

Foreign Aid Package Still Hangs in Limbo
It has been over a month since the Senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid package, which included $60 billion for Ukraine. On Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) raised concerns about a potential Russian escalation and called on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to bring the bill to the House floor. The urgency to pass funding for Ukraine has ratcheted up in recent weeks, with President Biden also calling for the package to be passed in his State of the Union address. Speaker Johnson has previously stated the House would shift to foreign aid once they finalize the budget. On Thursday, he said Ukraine and Israel funding packages would likely be brought up using the House’s suspension calendar, which would require a 2/3 majority to approve legislation.

This Week’s Takeaways

This week, Senators from Maryland and Virginia wrote a letter opposing additional slots at DCA. There has been a contentious debate over whether to add more long-distance flights at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. The effort is supported by West Coast, Utah, and Texas politicians but especially opposed by D.C.-area congressional members. Senators Mark Warner (D-VA), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), and Ben Cardin (D-MD) wrote to chairs of the House and Senate Transportation Committees asking them not to expand the number of outside-the-perimeter flights because of fears it will overburden the airport and cause additional delays. The House defeated an amendment to expand slots in their FAA reauthorization bill, but the Senate included a provision for 10 additional flights. The senators urged the committee leaders not to include any additional slots in the final version of the bill.
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) held a Women’s History Month Roundtable on combating attacks on DEI initiatives. Rep. Waters, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, welcomed leading women in the legal and business world for a wide-ranging conversation. The panel discussed how many companies have begun to roll back DEI hiring policies, which they implemented in 2021. The panel aimed to bring attention to this trend and hold corporations accountable for their DEI commitments.
Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) announced he will resign from Congress on March 22. Rep. Buck had previously indicated he would not seek re-election but has now decided to end his tenure a few months early. Rep. Buck’s resignation shrinks the razor thin GOP House majority to 218-213, with four vacancies. A special election to replace Rep. Buck will take place on June 25.

Spotlight

GrayRobinson held an event with Rep. Donald Payne Jr (D-NJ), ranking member of the House Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials. Rep. Payne met with rail and shipping industry members to discuss priorities and issues in the sector. Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA), the ranking member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, also attended.

Preparing for the Week Ahead

Wednesday, March 20

Senate Environment and Public Works Hearing on “Examining PFAS as Hazardous Substances”
House Committee on Small Business Hearing on “Conducting Oversight: Testimony from the Small Business Administrator”
House Ways and Means Committee Hearing with Health and Human Services Secretary Becerra
House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee Hearing on “SEC Overreach: Examining the Need for Reform”
House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee Hearing on “The Characteristics and Challenges of Today’s Homebuyers”

Thursday, March 21

House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on “Highways and Transit Hearing on Rural Highway and Transit Challenges and Programs”
House Financial Services Committee Hearing on “Importing Global Governance: Examining the Dangers of Ceding Authority Over American Financial Regulation”
House Ways and Means Joint Social Security and Work and Welfare Subcommittee Hearing with the Commissioner of Social Security Martin O’Malley
House Science, Space, and Technology Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics Hearing on “Advancing Scientific Discovery: Assessing the Status of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate”

The Ellis Insight

PRESIDENT

Primary Results: GA, HI, MS, WA: Primaries were held in three states on Tuesday night, along with the Hawaii Republican Caucus, and both President Biden and former President Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they’ll be the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).

The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries and Hawaii caucus went as expected with both Messrs. Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but have withdrawn from the race. Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60% of the vote. Mr. Wicker won all but ten counties in the state from a total universe of 82.

All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73% of the vote. The four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November.

No Labels Party: The No Labels Party members voted to move forward with fielding a presidential ticket in this year’s election, but apparently are not close to identifying who might be those contenders. Some within the organization suggested nominating former Georgia Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan (R), who is critical of former President Donald Trump.

If No Labels were to go in this direction, it would signal that they are trying to be a spoiler, i.e., using a figure such as Duncan to draw votes away from Mr. Trump in the critical state of Georgia that would give President Biden a strong chance of again winning the state, thus assuring his re-election. Though the group wants to move forward with nominating a presidential candidate, the members are apparently a long way from selecting a ticket and gaining agreement from those who they might eventually choose.

SENATE

New Jersey: Facing multiple federal charges and consistent polling data showing him only with single-digit support within his own party, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced this week that he will not seek re-election later this year. This leaves the Senate Democratic field ostensibly to US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and Tammy Murphy, the state’s First Lady.

Sen. Menendez now becomes the ninth incumbent not to seek re-election in 2024, or just over one-quarter of the 34 in-cycle Senators. Of the nine, six are Democrats, while two are Republican, and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) is now an Independent. Despite the large number of openings, it appears just three, Arizona, Maryland, and Michigan, will be competitive in the general election while two, New Jersey and Utah, will see highly volatile Democratic (NJ) and Republican (UT) primary elections.

Ohio: As we close in on the Buckeye State primary, Emerson College released their poll of the Ohio Senate Republican primary that posted state Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) to a 26-23-16% edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively.

Survey USA also released their study with slightly different results. The S-USA poll (3/6-11; 1,241 OH registered voters; 533 likely Republican primary voters; online) that projects businessman Bernie Moreno holding a 22-18-16% lead over Sen. Dolan and Secretary LaRose. The closeness of both polls suggests any of the three still has a chance to win this coming Tuesday.

Also, this week Gov. Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Sen. Dolan, which may counter to a degree former President Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Moreno. In the 2022 Senate race, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end and fell just one point short of finishing second. In this race, which will be decided in the Ohio plurality primary on Tuesday, he again appears to be finishing the campaign with momentum. The March 19 primary winner will then face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important 2024 national Senate races.

HOUSE

California: As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting several more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez only registered a 51-49% general election win over Mr. Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.

In preparation for Tuesday’s special election to replace resigned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, it is now likely that we will see a double-Republican regular general election between Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux.

To the Democrats’ benefit in open Districts 30 and 31, Democratic-Republican general elections appear to be the final result. The pairings would almost assuredly elect state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) to replace Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), while former Congressman Gil Cisneros (D) returning to the House to succeed retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) also appears to be a certainty.

The closest race is occurring in open District 16 from where Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D) has secured the first general election position, but the battle for second place is still undecided. San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Senator Joe Simitian (D) has yielded second place to Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell).

The razor thin margin is only 59 votes between the two according to the Secretary of State’s official count. An unspecified number of ballots remain uncounted. District 16 will send two Democrats to the general election, but the second finalist position is still undecided.

CO-4: Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced that he will resign on March 22. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election, the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25 primary election. The political parties will choose nominees before that date.

Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) announced that she will not compete in the special election but will remain in the race for the full term. Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams, who is himself a congressional candidate in open District 5, announced that he will assemble a committee of party leaders and elected officials to choose a special election nominee within “the next several weeks.” The Democrats have a selection committee of over 200 members and the special vote to choose their nominee will occur on April 1.

The move not to enter the special makes sense for Boebert. It is highly unlikely that she would be chosen as the committee’s nominee since she currently represents another district. Therefore, if the Congresswoman wins the regular primary election it is irrelevant as to who holds the seat for the remainder of this term. Unless the special election winner also wins the regular primary on the same day, then said person will not compete in the general election. Therefore, Rep. Boebert’s objective hasn’t changed.

MT-2: Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post.

Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg.

Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state Senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Trump posted a 62-35% victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4th Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

NY-1: Expelled US Rep. George Santos (R), announced that he will indeed be on the ballot to return to Congress. He will not challenge Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) who replaced him in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, but rather will oppose 1st District freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) who he terms as an “empty suit RINO” (Republican In Name Only). Mr. LaLota was especially critical of Mr. Santos during his short tenure in office.

The new redistricting map makes the 1st District more Republican, but it is highly unlikely the new configuration will allow Mr. Santos to deny Rep. LaLota renomination. The New York primary is scheduled for June 25.

NC-6: Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5th Republican primary announced this week that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30% of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26% of the vote, and Walker 24%.

Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Mr. Walker announced that he has accepted former President Donald Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities.

The move means that Mr. McDowell, who Mr. Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate.

It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5th. Even if one or more should run, Mr. McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle.

GOVERNOR

Indiana: A new Emerson College statewide Indiana Republican primary survey (3/2-5; 526 IN likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds US Senator Mike Braun (R) cruising in his quest for the state’s open Governorship. The Emerson data sees Sen. Braun posting a 34-7-7-5% split over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, venture capitalist Eric Doden, and former State Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers.

This data tracks with reported internal Braun data from the Mark It Red polling firm that records a 41-12% split over Lt. Gov. Crouch. The Indiana plurality primary is scheduled for May 7. The eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite to then win the general election in November.

North Carolina: Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday's primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new November participants.

The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (3/6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 NC registered voters; 598 NC likely general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42% margin. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Donald Trump over President Biden by a 50-45% margin in this most critical of swing states.

The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 NC likely voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39% spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a different 45-40% count.

Renee Leta