Looking forward to the Winter Olympics

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  In keeping with our regular updates on the lunar calendar, yesterday marked the Snow Moon, an appropriately-timed factoid that we are sure will bring a smile to everyone’s faces as they dig through sheets of solid ice. We are looking forward to the Winter Olympics, beginning this Friday, February 6th. If you are looking for a thrill, tune in to the biathlon—any event, really, but the relay is particularly exciting.

Bessent Testifies Before House and Senate: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will appear before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, to provide the annual report on the FSOC. The House Financial Services Committee will also have a slate of private sector witnesses to discuss SEC enforcement and regulation on Thursday.

Trump Announces Kevin Warsh for Fed: On Friday, President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Federal Reserve following the expiration of Chair Powell’s term in May. Warsh will inherit the economy that has grown quickly over the past year though the labor market has stagnated. Economists predict the impact of AI will be significant and has yet to be fully understood. And current Chair Powell has been the subject of substantial pressure to cut rates, leading to concern among experts on the Fed’s independence.  Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) sits on the Banking Committee and stated that he believes Warsh to be qualified to lead the agency, but reiterated that he will not support any nominee until the ongoing Justice Department investigation into Chair Powell is resolved.

House to re-take Appropriations: Technically speaking, the government mostly shut down over the weekend, as no appropriations package was completed by the January funding deadline.  On Friday, the Senate passed legislation that was the result of a deal between Senate Democrats and President Trump: a five-bill funding package plus a separate Homeland Security stopgap funding bill.  The DHS stopgap allows members to vote to fund the other agencies separately, enabling those portions of the government to be funded; legislators also agreed to work on ICE reform in the wake of the events in Minnesota. However, House Democrats declined to let the bills go on suspension, meaning that Speaker Mike Johnson still faces the challenging process of getting the bill through Rules and passing a rule on the floor. Even though some Democrats will support the funding package on the floor, the rule will likely go on party line, making that the more challenging feat; Trump will likely have to whip Republicans to get the rule through. Democrats have gained back a seat previously lost with the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner in Texas, meaning that the always-tight margins continue to be tight. Various factions of the Republican Conference are either opposed to minibuses, ICE reform, or are attempting to add their own priorities to the mix. We’ve been through this before and the bills always pass, but not without the addition of time and angst.

Political Update from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Florida:  Two Democrats came forward during the week to declare their candidacies against appointed Republican US Senator Ashley Moody.  Former Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, an ex-National Security Council staff member, who testified publicly against President Trump in the first impeachment procedure in 2019 and whose brother, Eugene Vindman, represents Virginia’s 7th District in the US House, announced his Senate campaign. 

Additionally, state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) also entered the race.  The Florida primary is scheduled for August 18th. Considering Florida’s strong move to the right in the most recent elections, Sen. Moody will be favored to win the general election.

Minnesota: Three new Senate Democratic primary polls all tell the same story. That is, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan leads US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) for the party nomination.

Impact Research (1/13-15; 600 MN likely Democratic primary voters) posts Ms. Flanagan to a 45-42% edge, the smallest margin of the three polls.  Public Policy Polling (1/16-17; 976 MN likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) records a 40-28% Flanagan advantage. The final and most recent poll, from GQR for the Flanagan campaign (1/14-20; 600 MN likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) posts her to a 49-36% margin. 

The Minnesota primary is scheduled for August 11th so much time remains for this campaign to further develop.

Nebraska:  In a research survey conducted a month ago but just released this week, we again see Independent Dan Osborn, who ran surprisingly close to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in 2024, performing very well in a US Senate battle. 

According to the Lake Research Partners ballot test data (12/11-17; 600 NE likely voters; live interview), Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), running for a full term after being appointed and then winning a special election, records only a one percentage point edge over Mr. Osborn, 48-47 percent. Considering Nebraska’s voting history and Sen. Ricketts’ three statewide victories (two for Governor, one for Senate), the incumbent will be favored to win again in November.

HOUSE  

DC-Delegate:  The veteran Washington, DC Delegate to the US House, Eleanor Holmes Norton (D), as expected announced that she will not seek a 19th term this year.  Ms. Norton was first elected to the House in 1990. Expect a battle to replace her, even though the six House Delegates have no voting power on the floor. Democrats, of course, due to the city’s strong Democratic voting history will retain the seat.

FL-16:  Ten-term Florida US Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) announced this week that he will not seek re-election later this year.  The Buchanan retirement means that 55 US House seats are open for the next election. The number includes the four seats that are vacant due to the incumbent’s death or resignation from the House and will be filled in special elections.

Of the 55, Rep. Buchanan joins 18 other members who are retiring from elective politics. The others, excluding the two deceased members, are running for another office. From the 55 open districts, a total of 30 come from the Republican aisle compared to 20 who are Democrats. The remaining five are new open seats created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas. 

Florida’s 16th District is safely Republican, but the current district lines are likely to change if the legislature redraws the state’s congressional map later this year.

FL-20:  Luther Campbell (D), the founder of the 2 Live Crew rap musical group, says he will make an announcement about challenging indicted US Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar) on February 15th. Already, we see five declared Democratic candidates including former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness who lost a special election nomination to Ms. Cherfilus-McCormick by just five votes in 2022. 

Expect the district lines to be altered in redistricting, but the seat will remain Democratic.  In November, Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick was indicted on 17 counts of stealing FEMA funds, money laundering, and making illegal campaign contributions. Obviously, her legal status will affect this Democratic nomination campaign. The Florida primary is scheduled for August 18th.

IL-4:  Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez, as expected, announced that he will attempt to qualify for the ballot as an Independent in the open 4th Congressional District race. Previously, Myra Macias, the former Executive Director of Latino Victory Fund, also said she would work to secure an Independent ballot line for the general election. 

Both individuals are Democrats, but Rep. Jesus Garcia’s (D-Chicago) controversial retirement announcement timed so that only his chief of staff, Patty Garcia, could qualify for the Democratic primary, has forced would be congressional candidates to try the independent route. 

IA-1:  Attorney Taylor Wettach (D) announced that he is ending his US House campaign and will instead run for the open State Auditor’s position. The action leaves the Democratic primary to two-time party nominee Christina Bohannan, a former state Representative.  In 2024, Ms. Bohannan held US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a tight 799-vote re-election victory, making it the third closest 2024 US House race. The 2026 rematch between Rep. Miller-Meeks and Ms. Bohannan is again expected to be highly competitive.

LA-5:  Ex-Rep. Garret Graves (R) announced this week that he will not attempt a congressional comeback in 2026. He was mentioned as a possible candidate in the state’s now open 5th District that Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) is leaving to run for the Senate. Rep. Graves was the victim of the 2024 redistricting measure that added a court-imposed minority district to the congressional delegation. 

Immediately after the Graves’ public announcement, state Rep. Dixon McMakin (R-Baton Rouge), who is the public address announcer for LSU football games, announced that he will run for Congress. Expect a crowded Republican primary in May to be held with the eventual nominee becoming a prohibitive favorite to capture the general election in November.

MT-1:  Peak Insights, polling for the Leadership in Action Super PAC (1/12-15; 400 MT-1 likely general election voters; live interview), finds US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading both of his potential general election opponents. Against Ryan Busse, the 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Rep. Zinke would lead 47-41%. If smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag were to advance to the general election, he would trail the Congressman 38-48%. 

Montana’s 1st District is reliably Republican but can become competitive. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.7R – 46.9D partisan lean for the state’s western CD. In the 2024 election, President Trump carried the seat, 54.2 – 42.7%.

NJ-8:  Mussab Ali, the former president of the Jersey City Board of Education and a 2025 mayoral candidate, announced that he will launch a Democratic primary challenge against two-term US Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City). At the height of Rep. Menendez’s father, former Sen. Bob Menendez (D), being charged and found guilty of bribery, the Congressman survived a multi-candidate primary challenge in 2024. Therefore, Rep. Menendez should be in strong shape to win another Democratic nomination battle.

Virginia Redistricting:  A Virginia Circuit Court Judge ruled this week that the legislature violated its own rules in hastily voting to place a partisan redistricting referendum on a statewide special election ballot. Therefore, with this ruling, the Virginia congressional redistricting referendum is likely nullified for the 2026 election cycle.  Democrats will appeal to the state Supreme Court.

Judge Jack Hurley, Jr. agreed with three of the four plaintiffs’ arguments, which is enough to halt the redistricting process. The arguments largely pertained to legislative procedure for special sessions: determining that the legislators violated certain rules they almost unanimously put in place; and not providing timely notice to voters and counties about the upcoming referendum in accordance with Virginia election law.

GOVERNOR

California:  Public Policy Polling (for the Katie Porter campaign; 1/20-21; 1,001 CA registered voters; live interview & text) and David Binder Research (1/17-20; 800 CA likely voters; live interview and online) each released new California Governor jungle primary surveys. 

For the fifth consecutive time, polls are showing two Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and ex-Fox News host Steve Hilton, leading the jungle primary. PPP sees an 18-17-14-12% lead for Bianco and Hilton over US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) and former US Rep. Katie Porter (D). The Binder poll produced a similar 17-14-11-11% result in the same order.

Maine:  Former CDC Deputy Director Nirav Shah released an internal campaign poll posting him to a major lead for the open Maine Democratic gubernatorial nomination. 

According to the Hart Research poll (1/15-19; 502 ME likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), Dr. Shah leads businessman Angus King, III, son of Independent US Sen. Angus King, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/ Portland), Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and former state Senate President Troy Jackson, 35-13-13-11-9%, respectively. The Maine primary is scheduled for June 9th.

Minnesota:  Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has filed a gubernatorial campaign committee but has yet to make a formal announcement of candidacy.  She is expected to run for Governor this year and succeed retiring two-term Democratic Governor and 2024 Vice-Presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Oregon:  Former NBA basketball star Chris Dudley (R), who played most of his career with the Portland Trailblazers and then came close to winning the Governorship in 2010, announced that he will return this year to again compete for Oregon’s top office. To advance to the general election, however, he must first win a primary against the 2022 GOP nominee, state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby). The winner will be a heavy underdog to incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek (D) who is seeking a second term. The Oregon primary is scheduled for June 30th.

South Carolina:  A Trafalgar Group survey of the South Carolina open Governor’s Republican primary (1/15-16; 1,076 SC likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette to hold a 22-20-17-10-2% lead over Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of US Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), US Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg), respectively.

Earlier, Rep. Mace released an internal survey from Stratus Intelligence (1/7-9; 700 SC likely Republican primary voters) that posted her to a 23-19-14-11% margin over Wilson, Evette, Norman, and Kimbrell. This poll, however, is inconsistent with other publicly released survey data. The South Carolina primary is scheduled for June 9th.  If no candidate secures majority support, the top two will advance toward a June 23rd runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R).

Wisconsin:  President Trump this week announced his endorsement of US Rep. Tom Tiffany’s (R-Minocqua) gubernatorial campaign. The President’s endorsement enticed Mr. Tiffany’s top opponent, Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann, to exit the race. At this point, it appears Rep. Tiffany has a clear path toward the Republican gubernatorial nomination. 

Democrats feature a crowded and competitive field vying for the opportunity of replacing retiring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. The Wisconsin primary is scheduled for August 11th. The general election is expected to be highly competitive with a close finish, which is consistent with Wisconsin voter history.