“Crypto Week”
Welcome back to the Golden Apple. Today is Bastille Day, so if you live in one of the 18 U.S. cities with a French consulate, there may be some fun activities (or good food) to investigate. In DC, this week has been dubbed “Crypto Week” with multiple digital asset bills up for floor consideration in the House. We will be keeping an eye on those vote tallies. And, after a long drought, there has been some movement on executive nominees. More details on this and other subjects below.
Banking and Financial Services Updates
Crypto Week Commences: This week, the House will take up three digital asset bills: the Senate-passed GENIUS Act, their own CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Via a social media post, President Trump has stated his goal for a clean GENIUS Act to come to his desk, which had complicated some plans to pair it with a more comprehensive market structure bill. Furthermore, Democratic concerns about executive conflicts have chilled some minority enthusiasm for the subject, though all three bills are being considered under a rule and therefore require just a simple majority.
Financial Services Committee Reviews Dodd Frank at 15: Several trade association heads will testify tomorrow at a full committee hearing reviewing the impacts of the massive legislation that implemented dozens of new regulations in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008. In addition, 37 pieces of legislation are attached to the hearing, most of which would make changes to the structure or function of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Later in the week, the National Security Subcommittee will review investment security strategy, and the Housing Subcommittee will discuss the affordable housing HOME Investment Partnerships program.
Senate Ag Continues Market Structure Discussion: Also tomorrow, the Senate Agriculture Committee will hold its own hearing on digital asset market structure. Witnesses include three former chairs (or acting chairs) of the CFTC: Walt Lukken, Tim Massad, and Rostin Benham. We’d have to do a deep dive to determine if this is the first time this many former chairs have appeared together, but suffice it to say it is rare. Ji Kim from the Crypto Council for Innovation and Tom Sexton from the National Futures Association will also provide testimony. This hearing follows some discussion that the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees are not entirely in lockstep on market structure, so it will be an interesting dynamic to watch.
Congressional Updates
Senate Takes Up Recissions Package: This week, the President’s recissions package is scheduled to hit the Senate floor, which includes nearly $10 billion in cuts to federal spending. This measure passed the House last month. Some Republican Senators have expressed concern with specific portions of the cuts, but Republicans can stand to lose three votes before calling in the Vice President to break the tie. Any changes made by the Senate would require a return vote through the House.
Administration Updates
Gould Confirmed to Lead OCC: Last Thursday, the Senate voted 50-45 to confirm Jonathan Gould as Comptroller of the Currency. Gould succeeds Rodney Hood, who has been serving in an acting capacity since the start of the new administration, and Michael Hsu, who also served as acting for the Biden administration. Gould’s nomination comes with hopes from his supporters that the agency under his leadership will more actively approve new bank charters.
Pettit Vote This Week: Later this evening, the Senate will vote on cloture for Luke Pettit’s nomination to serve as Assistant Secretary to the Treasury for Financial Institutions. Assuming cloture passes, the Senate will vote on his confirmation later this week; likely Thursday. John Crews will also be heading to Treasury as the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions, a role that does not require Senate confirmation.
Travis Hill Rumored to be Permanent FDIC Pick: Travis Hill, who has served in an acting capacity as head of the FDIC since January 20th, is rumored to be getting the official nod soon. This is welcome news for many in the industry, who have hoped for stability and have applauded his goals of improving efficiency and transparency at the agency.
Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis
SENATE
Kentucky: Republican businessman Nate Morris has fired the first salvo in the race to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell from his native state of Kentucky, and the main target appears to be the retiring incumbent, himself.
Mr. Norris owns a business that, by his own description, is a “trash company,” and one of the largest in the country. He is running for office for the first time and putting seven figures behind a new introductory ad that literally “trashes” Sen. McConnell and his Republican primary opponents, US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.
After what promises to now be a divisive Republican primary, the major general election question to answer is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D) will run for the Senate. If so, this race becomes a toss-up. If not, the eventual Republican nominee will become a prohibitive favorite. At this point, it appears Gov. Beshear is headed into the open 2028 presidential contest.
Michigan: A Normington Petts poll for the Mallory McMorrow campaign (6/12-16 but released this week; 700 MI likely general election voters; live interview & text) tested the Michigan US Senate race. The ballot test results find US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) leading former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) 47-45%, which is a virtual tie. Conversely, Mr. Rogers would top state Sen. McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) 48-44%.
Interestingly, the Normington Petts polling analysis suggested that McMorrow, despite being behind on this ballot test, has a “higher upside” because “Stevens is also uniquely vulnerable to attacks from Republicans based on her voting record with President Biden—a criticism that does not apply to McMorrow.”
North Carolina: Though most Democrats are waiting to see if former Gov. Roy Cooper will enter the US Senate race, US Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) this week indicated that he is considering entering the now open statewide campaign since Sen. Thom Tillis (R) has announced he will not seek re-election.
Conversely, newly elected Attorney General Jeff Jackson (D) ended speculation about him running for the Senate. Mr. Jackson said he will not enter the federal race even if former Gov. Cooper chooses not to run. Ex-US Rep. Wiley Nickel is already an announced Democratic candidate.
While Democrats are waiting to see whether Mr. Cooper runs for the Senate, Republicans are similarly watching if either presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump or Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley will become candidates. Carolina Hurricanes Hockey Club former President Jim Cain says he would be interested in seeking the GOP nomination if both Trump and Whatley decide not to run. Regardless of who ultimately runs, the North Carolina Senate race will be a premier national US Senate campaign.
South Carolina: Former Lt. Governor Andre Bauer announced that he will launch a Republican primary challenge against South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Mr. Bauer was elected to two terms as the state’s Lt. Governor, in 2002 and 2006. Since that time, he has run unsuccessfully for Governor and the 7th Congressional District, failing each time to win the Republican nomination. Sen. Graham remains the clear favorite for renomination and re-election.
HOUSE
AZ-7: The Deja Foxx campaign released the results of their Change Research poll (6/26-29; 540 AZ-7 likely special election Democratic primary voters; online) that finds former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva’s Democratic primary lead shrinking against Ms. Foxx to 43-35% with former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez dropping to just 9% support.
The special primary elections are scheduled for next week, July 15th. The Democratic winner will become the prohibitive favorite to win the September 23rd special election for the right to succeed the late US Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) who passed away in March.
CA-3: Two-term Congressman Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) has drawn his second 2026 Democratic opponent. Marine Corps veteran and Jeopardy! game show winner Tyler Vandenberg joined a Democratic congressional field that already features Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall. The general election again figures to be contested, but Rep. Kiley remains the favorite to score another victory in the low to mid 50s. The California jungle primary will be held June 2nd.
CT-1: Fourteen-term US Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune in one of several campaigns where the candidates’ age discrepancy will be a major issue. Rep. Larson turns 77 years of age this month and has some health issues, while Ms. Fortune is 37. This could be a primary to watch. The Connecticut primary will be held August 11, 2026.
IA-1: While former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) held Iowa US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a tight 799-vote victory in November, her performance has not given her a clear path in the 2026 Democratic primary. This week, well-heeled attorney Taylor Wettach declared his candidacy following former state Rep. Bob Krause’s announcement. Therefore, expect this Democratic primary and subsequent general election to become highly competitive.
NE-2: With five-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring, this Omaha anchored district is moving leftward and will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. As expected, former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Brett Lindstrom (R) announced his candidacy this weekend. Already in the Republican primary race is Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding.
The leading Democratic candidate is state Sen. John J. Cunningham (D-Omaha). This contest will develop into a hard-fought, close campaign. The parties will choose their nominees on May 12, 2026.
PA-3: US Rep. Dwight Evans’s (D-Philadelphia) retirement announcement has left an open Democratic primary that promises to be crowded. Already, state Senator Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia), son of former Philadelphia Mayor John Street, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia), and physician Dave Oxman have declared their congressional candidacies. Pennsylvania’s 3rd District is the Democrats’ safest seat in the state, so whoever wins this May 19th primary will be a lock for the general election.
TN-6: With Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) running for Governor, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Van Hilleary (R) who himself served as the state’s 4th District Congressman from 1995-2003, scheduled a “big beautiful announcement” for the end of this week. In doing so, Mr. Hilleary is laying the groundwork for his return to elective politics in an attempt to succeed his current boss. Also announcing his candidacy is state Rep. Johnny Garrett (R-Hendersonville).
The eventual GOP nominee will be the prohibitive favorite for the general election.
TN-7: Because Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) is resigning from the House on July 20th, the first Democratic candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission. State Representative Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) has officially entered the special election, and several others will soon be following suit.
Four Republicans have declared their candidacies with state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) being the most recent candidate to formally enter. Rep. Reeves joins former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, and state Representative Jay Reedy (R-Erin) in the GOP field vying to replace Rep. Green.
While Democrats clearly are making an effort, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the special general election. Once Mr. Green officially leaves office, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have ten days to announce the special election calendar.
VA-1: Local Democrats are seemingly coming out of the political woodwork to compete for the right to challenge GOP Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) in the 2026 general election. The district is enticing them because it is the only Virginia CD where President Trump’s 2024 performance fell under his 2020 benchmark. Still, the President carried the 1st District with a 52-47% victory margin last November.
Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, who came within two percentage points of winning the 2025 Attorney General primary, is confirming she is considering entering the 1st District race. Already, four other Democrats have announced. Rep. Wittman will be favored for re-election, but this district appears to be becoming competitive for the first time since the Congressman was originally elected in a 2007 special election.
GOVERNOR
Georgia: In a move that carried little in the way of surprise, Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones announced that he will compete for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He will face Attorney General Chris Carr for the party nod. The eventual winner will then move into a tight open general election battle possibly with former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Both parties expect tight primaries. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is ineligible to run for a third term.
Iowa: Attorney General Brenna Bird (R), who at earlier points in the year was expected to launch a Republican primary challenge against Sen. Joni Ernst and then was discussed regarding the open Governor’s race announced this week that she won’t run for either.
AG Bird not being in the race is good news for the perceived leader, US Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City). Sen. Ernst and US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) then followed with their own endorsements for Rep. Feenstra. Surprisingly, the state’s other Congressman, Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/Des Moines), is sending signals that he may have an interest in running for Governor now that Ms. Bird has declined.
Kansas: State Insurance Commissioner and former state Senator Vicki Schmidt joined the expanding Kansas Republican gubernatorial field this week. Previously announced are former Gov. Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab, along with several local officials. Democrats have yet to see any candidate officially declare to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D).
Michigan: Saying that “…President Trump’s America First policies are already having positive effects for Americans,” and that she wants to help further the agenda’s progress, 2022 Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon announced that she will run neither for Governor nor Senator next year. The announcement helps the GOP leadership clear the primary fields for US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) in the open Governor’s race, and ex-US Rep. Mike Rogers in the open Senate campaign.
New York: US Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx), who had been testing the waters for a gubernatorial primary challenge to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul said during the week that he is unlikely to enter the statewide campaign.
Assuming Rep. Torres stays in his congressional seat, the prime beneficiary of his decision is Lt. Governor and former Congressman Antonio Delgado who would likely face Gov. Hochul in a one-on-one contest. The Governor was doing well if the anti-Hochul vote was split. She is still favored to win the party nomination, but the June primary race is becoming interesting.
Pennsylvania: US Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas) announced this week that he will not run for Governor next year, ending a long period of political speculation about his political plans. State Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) continues to prepare to soon launch her own gubernatorial bid. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is expected to seek a second term and will be considered a clear favorite to win again in 2026.