Congress is Back in Session for Three Weeks

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  After a long and restful summer break, Congress is back in session for three weeks, before breaking (again!) for the October campaign period.  During this session period, the headlines will mainly be focused on the fight to fund the government, which we will touch on below. 

Meanwhile, presidential campaign activities march on, with the first debate between Vice President Harris and Former President Trump taking place tomorrow evening in Philadelphia.  The stakes are high for both parties—this is the first major test for Harris, whose prosecutorial reputation set her apart in the 2020 democratic primary debates.  Harris enjoyed ballooning enthusiasm within her party, but will need to use the debate stage to appeal to undecided voters.  Given the relatively higher momentum in the Harris campaign, a poor debate performance could bring a steeper fall for the VP.  Trump, on the other hand, is already a defined figure in the eyes of most voters, and will need to prove that he can remain on message and focused on the issues. 

Financial Services and Banking Updates

The House is in Monday to Thursday this week.  The Senate is in Monday through Friday.

HFSC’s Regulatory Oversight Month
The Financial Services Committee has an ambitious calendar laid out for this month, with several dates set for regulators to testify before Congress.  Beleaguered FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg has been summoned to appear on September 19th, though with his resignation pending and no upside to attending what would surely hostile hearing, we have our doubts as to whether Mr. Gruenberg will appear.

On September 24th, the Committee is scheduled to hear testimony from the full, 5-person SEC Commission, and on September 25th, FHFA Director Sandra Thompson is tentatively slated to appear. 

Senate Banking Focuses on Fraud
This week, the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing on scams and fraud targeting seniors, with witnesses from the AARP, as well as consumer advocates and state and local consumer affairs officials.

McHenry Speaks on Financial Privacy
Though not strictly a Congressional event, it is worth mentioning the CATO Institute’s September 12th all-day event focused financial privacy and the impact of increasing technology.  Amid panels on Bank Secrecy Act Reform and Decentralization, Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry will participate in a fireside chat to share his thoughts on privacy protection.  For those interested, see more at the link here.

Congressional Updates

Tough Talk on Spending
With both chambers back in DC today, the spending fight has already become a top subject of discussion.  Government funding runs out on September 30th, or three weeks from today.  Speaker Mike Johnson has offered a continuing resolution that would extend current funding levels for six months, but pairs it with the SAVE Act, a partisan bill requiring proof of citizenship to vote.  While the bill may earn a few Democratic votes in the House, it is largely intended to pinch vulnerable Democratic Senators before failing to pass the Senate.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reiterated the need for a bipartisan path forward in a Sunday letter to his colleagues.  With both sides eager to avoid a shutdown and hit the campaign trail, there is incentive, there is broadly an expectation for the usual dramatics from both sides before they reach a deal.

It’s China Week…Finally
The House is considering a large slate of China-focused bills on the floor this week, with four bills headed to the Rules Committee and a larger group lined up for suspension.  The China-focused bills are sourced from many committees and cover topics including restricting tax credits for new EVs using Chinese-manufactured batteries, imposing financial sanctions on senior Chinese officials in the event of aggression against Taiwan, and legislation banning Chinese drones, and many others.  Though the full list is lengthy, what is missing is legislation restricting outbound investment to China, which had been an area of focus for both Speaker Johnson and Ranking Member McHenry, though the two brought different approaches to the subject.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

PRIMARY RESULTS
 
Massachusetts:  Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election.  Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states. 

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November.  Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election.  Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70% of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November. 

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed last night for his party’s nomination.  As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Mr. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election.  The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

PRESIDENT
 
Ballot:  More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds.  The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action.  Mr. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the Board’s ruling. 

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Mr. Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified.  Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Mr. Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2:  As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats. 

According to the S-USA results (8/23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42% margin.  This district is important because, if it votes Mr. Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.
 
SENATE

Minnesota:  Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly released Redfield & Wilton survey (8/25-28; 426 MN likely voters) does not suggest any result other than the Senator’s victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign.  The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44% margin. 

This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size.  In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (8/27-29; 635 MN likely voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the Senator leading Mr. White, 50-36%.

Nebraska:  The Survey USA statewide poll (8/23-27; 1,293 NE registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office.  Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022. 

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43% vote spread.  In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38%, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line.  

While Mr. Osborn’s standing at 38% is what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39% poll total suggests a severe under-performance. 

Ohio:  A new On Point/Red Eagle/SoCal Strategies survey has been released for the Ohio races (8/31-9/1; 600 OH likely voters; online) and the results are consistent with what has been presented for weeks.  In the presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by nine percentage points, 52-43%.  Yet, the Senate contest again produces a much different conclusion. 

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leads businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by five points, 50-45%.  Since the end of May, Sen. Brown has maintained the advantage in six consecutive polls that six different polling firms conducted.  His leads have been consistent: eight, five, six, four, five, and five points even though Mr. Trump has led in each survey.

The last time Sen. Brown was on the ballot, in 2018, a total of eight polls were conducted for the race featuring the incumbent and then-US Rep. Jim Renacci (R).  Sen. Brown led in each poll and his average advantage was just over 13 percentage points.  Yet, his winning margin was only six points.  Therefore, if polling history repeats itself in 2024, this race may prove closer than the current data suggest.

Pennsylvania:  Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) has clearly been leading his race for re-election, but the most recent polls find the contest becoming much closer, just as former President Trump has been taking a small lead in most of these same Pennsylvania polls.

After posting consistent double-digit leads through July and early August, the month’s mid to latter periods has yielded different results.  Since mid-August, ten polls have been released of this Senate race, and Sen. Casey’s mean average margin has dropped to 4.5 points.  In July, his advantage through 11 released polls was almost nine percentage points.  While the Trump numbers have improved in recent PA polling, so has Republican Senate challenger David McCormick’s standing.

West Virginia:  In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website (8/21-27; 400 WV likely voters; live interview), casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light. 

In the Senate race after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the Governor’s office, Mr. Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D).  Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28% margin over Mayor Elliott. 

Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat.  Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.

HOUSE

AK-AL:  The Alaska August 20th primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9% of the vote in the state’s unique top four jungle primary system.  Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.

In second place was Republican Nick Begich, III with 26.6% followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9% support.  The fourth place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes, for less than 1%.  Both Ms. Dahlstrom and Mr. Salisbury are forfeiting their general election positions.  Therefore, it appears that Mr. Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola with only minor party contenders accompanying him on the ballot. 

While Ms. Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters.  In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame.  A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization (8/30-9/1; 400 AK likely voters) conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Mr. Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45%. 

FL-13:  Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey (8/27; 843 FL-13 registered voters; automated phone calls and text) that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44% clip.  This week, WPA Intelligence released their data (8/28-29; 400 FL-13 likely voters; live interview and text), which shows the exact opposite ballot test result.  According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43% advantage. 

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.  Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district’s voter history.  Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.

MT-1:  Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration.  He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46% victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D) that was below a typical Republican performance.  The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10. 

The new Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP (8/25-29; 310 MT-1 likely voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Ms. Tranel, who returns for a rematch, but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district.  The ballot test cut 49-43% in Rep. Zinke’s favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Ms. Tranel.

OR-5:  Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger.  Oregon US Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.

This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary.  A Noble Predictive Insights survey (8/26-28; 419 OR-5 likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds the Congresswoman trailing Ms. Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42%. 

While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30% favorability index, Vice President Harris holds an eight point lead over Donald Trump in the 5th District.  Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the Congresswoman.

GOVERNOR
 
West Virginia:  The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question.  In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35% against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D).  While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Mr. Morrisey will easily hold the Governor’s position for the GOP.

STATES
 
Early Voting:  The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is fast approaching.  The first to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is today, September 6th.  Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia.  A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later. 

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting.  Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar.  Instead of election day, we now have election month.  Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.