Basking in the glow of the OKC Thunder’s clinching of the NBA title

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  The House was out last week and the Senate took a short week to observe the Juneteenth holiday.  Both chambers are back this week before a scheduled recess next week for the 4th of July.  It is a busy week ahead, but we are still basking in the glow of the OKC Thunder’s clinching of the NBA title yesterday.  The extra sunlight from the solstice doesn’t hurt, either. 

Financial Services and Banking Updates

Monetary Policy Week: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the House and Senate, respectively, this week in the semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before Congress. Fed Chair Powell will provide updates on monetary policy and employment figures. Expect questions from lawmakers on interest rate cuts, tariffs, and other high-profile issues.

Senate Parliamentarian Axes CFPB Cuts: The Senate Parliamentarian has begun reviewing portions of the GOP reconciliation bill to ensure that its provisions adhere to budgetary impacts requirement. Several provisions of Chair Tim Scott’s banking portion of the bill were knocked out, including proposals to reduce the CFPB’s budget to zero. In addition, efforts to cut the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research, reduce Federal Reserve employees’ pay, and dissolve the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board were also identified by the parliamentarian as non-budgetary in nature. These measures were included in the banking title’s cost-saving provisions as offsets to other spending programs, meaning that the topline budget numbers are affected by the ruling. That said, the banking title is a comparatively small segment of the overall bill.

House, Senate, and Administration Crypto Movements: Last week, the Senate passed its version of stablecoin legislation, the GENIUS Act, after a series of challenges and ongoing negotiations between Republicans and Democrats.  Following its passage, President Trump in a post on his Truth Social platform, endorsed the legislation and called for its immediate, clean, passage through the House with “no delays [and] no add-ons.” This complicates the House’s goal of bundling stablecoin legislation with its market structure CLARITY Act.  Originally, the House planned to put the CLARITY Act on the floor this week, but will now delay given the Trump post. With no action this week and a scheduled recess the next, we will see how things change in two weeks. Meanwhile, the Senate will hold its own hearing tomorrow on bipartisan approaches to crypto market structure.

Congressional Updates

Senate’s Remittance Tax Proposal Changes JCT Score: Last week, the Senate Finance Committee released its own version of a remittance tax proposal. The Senate version mirrors the House’s 3.5% tax, but notably departs in its exceptions, exempting transfers originating from financial institutions subject to BSA requirements. For example, exempt from the provisions are transactions originating from insured banks, credit unions, commercial bank or trust companies, SEC-registered broker dealers, and others.  Still subject to the tax are Money Service Businesses. Because this exemptive language knocks out a large swatch of transactions that would be included under the House-passed version, the Joint Committee on Taxation’s score has dropped to just over $1 billion over 10 years, compared against the House’s estimated $25 billion in revenue raised by the tax. The Senate Parliamentarian will hear arguments today on the Finance portion of the bill, so this provision and numerous others will be up for discussion.

Senate Races toward July 4th Deadline: We have outlined several specific updates with respect to reconciliation in the paragraphs above. More generally, the Senate is focused on finalizing all sections of the bill and moving toward floor passage in anticipation of the July 4th deadline (although even that date has been the subject of much discussion lately). The Senate text departs from the House-passed version in key areas, including changes to provider taxes, a key source of funding for Medicaid programs.  In addition, the parliamentarian’s rulings have knocked out major provisions, including language requiring states to take on a larger share of SNAP costs, and may see further changes following the review of the Finance Committee’s title today. These changes impact both the budgetary implications of the bill and its politics, which will further complicate matters when the bill returns to the House for final passage. All of these factors paint a challenging picture for Republicans, but they have stayed on schedule thus far.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Florida:  Josh Weil (D), the teacher who lost to freshman US Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43% in the April 1st special election despite raising over $15 million for the campaign, announced that he will challenge appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) next year. 

Mr. Weil attracted national attention for his special election contest to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R), who at the time was President Trump’s National Security Advisor, but he actually underperformed when compared to the Democratic House vote total in 2018 when the 6th District seat was last open.  Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election even though polling will likely project a close race.

Illinois:  US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s (D-Schaumburg) US Senate campaign released the results of his recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (6/5-10; 1,200 IL likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text).  The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14% advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago).  The Democratic primary winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the general election.

Louisiana:  Bayou State US Senator Bill Cassidy has a new Republican opponent.  State Senator Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced that he will enter the 2026 Republican Senate primary.  Sen. Cassidy is one of seven Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump in 2020 and is vulnerable for renomination.  Already in the race is State Treasurer John Fleming. 

Additionally, the Louisiana Governor and legislature changed state election law.  For federal races the jungle primary system is eschewed, and a partisan structure is reimposed.  The change will likely play to Cassidy’s detriment.  Therefore, the primary challenge is more serious because the Senator must now stand for a Republican primary on April 18, 2026, with a runoff election on May 30th if no candidate secures majority support in the first vote. 

HOUSE

AZ-1:  Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said this week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District.  In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Representative Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48% re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. 

The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19:  Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary.  Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter.  FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election.  Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1:  Ex-state Representative Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026.  Ms. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. 

President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0% here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4%.

MO-2:  Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge US Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin).  Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Mr. Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat.  Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

TN-7:  With Tennessee US Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) just announcing that he will resign from the House after the “Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted, we already see candidate action in Tennessee’s 7th District. 

Democrats look ready to compete for the seat despite what appear to be favorable Republican retention odds.  Former Nashville Mayor and 2024 congressional nominee Megan Barry indicates she will consider entering the special election Democratic field.  State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) says he is virtually certain to become a candidate.  State Rep. Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) is also a potential congressional contender.

Two prominent Republicans have already declared they will run for the soon-to-be vacated congressional seat.  State General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps announced he is resigning his cabinet position to enter the congressional field, and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight is also formulating a congressional campaign.  Therefore, it appears we will see competitive special election primaries in both parties.  Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have ten days to set the special election calendar once Rep. Green officially resigns. 

GOVERNOR

Colorado:  The Global Strategy Group released a Democratic primary poll conducted for Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) gubernatorial campaign (6/9-11; 600 CO likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects the three-plus term federal incumbent leading Attorney General Phil Weiser (D) 53-22%, along with enjoying a very large Bennet name identification advantage.

In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also recorded a respectable 45:7 index.  A resounding 87% responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52% of the sample recorded a similar recognition of Mr. Weiser.  As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will make the eventual Democratic nominee a prohibitive favorite.

Kansas:  Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee.  State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week. 

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican.  For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan:  Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary.  He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46% margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D).  Mr. Leonard joins a Republican field that includes US Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw). 

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.  Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New Jersey:  Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign released its internal post-primary National Research poll (6/10-11; 600 NJ likely general election voters; live interview & text) that projected US Rep. Mike Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading the general election battle by only a 45-42% margin.

The National Research poll results are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election.  Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (5/28-30; 576 NJ likely general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Mr. Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38% result.  Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, the conclusion is that Ciattarelli is the candidate receiving a support boost coming from the primary election.

Virginia:  Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates. 

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (6/8-10; 1,127 VA likely voters) sees Ms. Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43% margin.  Seven credible polls have been released for the VA race and six find Ms. Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points.  The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie.  The November 2025 election is expected to become highly competitive.

STATE & LOCAL

New York City:  An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; 6/6-7; 573 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31%, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for June 23rd.  This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading. 

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (6/3-7; 600 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Mr. Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30% lead over Mamdani.  The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49%. 

The most recent release, from Marist College (6/9-12; 1,350 NYC likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Mr. Cuomo with the lead, 43-31%, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign.  The pollsters find Mr. Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner.  Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia:  State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3% margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor on June 17th.  In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish.  Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49%, to win the Democratic nomination.  Mr. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R). 

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes.