Back to work

The government is reopened and the House and Senate are back to work, at least until Thursday. The House and Senate are in recess next week for Thanksgiving and return on December 2. The current plan has the Congress in session until December 19th with the FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, NDAA, the primary business at hand. If passed in December, it will mark the 65th consecutive year Congress has passed the NDAA, so the pressure is on to get the bill done. There will be a great deal of wrangling to add non-defense provisions to the NDAA.  These additional provisions are generally opposed by the Armed Services Committee leaderships but do occasionally find their way into this must-pass legislation. The other hot topic for December will be health care, specifically the expiring premium subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. Majority Leader Thune has committed to a Senate floor vote on premium subsidies during the week of December 16th, but there is no commitment from the Speaker of the House to hold a vote.   

2026 House Calendar. The calendar for the US House for 2026 was released by Majority Leader Scalise this morning. As with most election years, the House is out late July through August and four weeks in October. It shows 95 legislative days before the election and anticipates a lame duck session post-election in November and December.  Interestingly, House is scheduled to be out the week of January 26-30 when the current Continuing Resolution expires, so consider this more guidance than a hard and fast schedule. 

Committee Action this week. Today the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing on deposit insurance reform (link). Tomorrow, the Senate Banking Committee is planning on voting on several nominees, including FDIC Acting Chairman Travis Hill to assume the chairmanship for a full term. The full list of nominees can be found here.  Once approved by the Banking Committee, these nominations move to the full Senate for approval, which may happen in December. 

Happy Thanksgiving! We are taking next week off for the holiday.  We hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving. 

The Ellis Report

SENATE

Kentucky: Well-known racing horse trainer Dale Romans announced that he will compete for Kentucky’s open Democratic US Senate nomination. In the primary, he will face retired Marine Corps officer and 2020 US Senate nominee Amy McGrath, who proved herself a strong fundraiser but lacking as a candidate. She was also defeated in a 2018 congressional race. Mr. Romans may have the resources to seriously compete with McGrath for the party nomination.

Republicans will be favored to hold the seat from which retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) has represented since 1985. Former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), who defeated Ms. McGrath in 2018, are the GOP candidates.

Michigan: The Rosetta Stone polling organization released the results of an independent poll that finds Republican former US Representative Mike Rogers polling ahead of all three Democratic US Senate contenders.

The Rosetta Stone poll (10/23-25; 637 MI likely general election voters) shows Mr. Rogers, who faces former Michigan Republican Party co-chair Bernadette Smith for the GOP nomination, ahead beyond the polling margin of error individually against each of the Democrats: US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Opposite Rep. Stevens, Mr. Rogers leads 47-40%.  If Sen. McMorrow was his opponent, the Rogers edge would be a similar 46-39%. The Rogers’ advantage grows if Mr. El-Sayed becomes his general election opponent. Under this scenario, the former Congressman posts a 45-31% margin.

Texas: New polling in the Texas Senate Democratic primary again shows trouble for 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred. An Impact Research survey conducted for the James Talarico Senate campaign (10/23-29; 836 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds state Rep. Talarico taking a 48-42% lead over Mr. Allred.

In a late September survey from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, the academic pollsters found Mr. Allred lagging in last place if the Democratic field consisted of him, US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), former El Paso Congressman and statewide candidate Beto O’Rourke, and state Rep. Talarico. For her part, Rep. Crockett says she is considering the Senate race and will make a decision at the December 8th candidate filing deadline. Ms. Crockett has led several Democratic statewide polls.

HOUSE

California Redistricting: With the passage of the Golden State redistricting referendum, members and candidates are determining where they will run. Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his 6th CD to challenge Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) in a 3rd District that now favors the Democrats.  Veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) sees his 41st District broken into parts, so he will challenge GOP Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) in the new 40th District.

Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) announced that she will run in the new 41st CD, which now contains part of Los Angeles County. The 38th District becomes open.  Los Angeles County Supervisor, former US Labor Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Hilda Solis will run here. Pico Rivera City Councilwoman Monica Sanchez (D) and former Obama White House aide T.J. Adams-Falconer (D) will also run in District 38.

CA-11: Christine Pelosi, daughter of retiring former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, says she will not run to succeed her mother in Congress, but would enter a special election for state Senate if incumbent Sen. Scott Weiner (D-San Francisco) is elected to Congress. Former San Francisco Mayor London Breed, who was defeated for re-election in 2024, says she is considering entering the open congressional race.

ME-2: With Maine US Rep. Jared Golden’s (D-Lewiston) announced retirement, the expected political musical chairs may soon begin. With six Democrats already in the open Governor’s race, it appears one is considering leaving the statewide contest to join the open 2nd District Congressional race. Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) confirms he is being encouraged to run in the congressional race and says he is contemplating such a move. Mr. Jackson is not favored to win the open gubernatorial primary. 

MD-6: Reports from western Maryland indicate that former US Rep. David Trone, who lost the 2024 US Senate Democratic primary to now Sen. Angela Alsobrooks, is making moves to test the political waters about a challenge to the woman who succeeded him in the House, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac). Mr. Trone, founder of the Total Beverage retail store chain, spent over $62 million of his own money on his losing statewide effort.

MN-5: Labor union leader Latonya Reeves this week announced a Democratic primary challenge to four-term US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). Rep. Omar had a close call in the 2022 Democratic primary against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, winning only 50-48%, though she won handily in the 2024 Democratic primary against the same opponent. Still, Ms. Reeves has the opportunity of making the 2026 primary competitive.

NJ-12: Saying “it’s time to pass the torch,” six-term US Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), 80 years of age, announced that she will not seek re-election next year. Prior to her election to the US House in 2014, she served 17 years in the New Jersey General Assembly, four years of which as Majority Leader. From 2002-2006, Ms. Watson Coleman chaired the New Jersey Democratic Party.

The Garden State’s 12th District, which includes the capital city of Trenton, Princeton University, and North, East, and South Brunswick, is reliably Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 56.5D – 43.5R partisan lean. Very likely, Rep. Watson Coleman’s successor will be the open Democratic primary winner.

NY-8: New York City Councilman Chi Osse (D) is making moves to launch a Democratic primary challenge to House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn). Mr. Osse is a strong supporter of Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani (D) and will challenge Mr. Jeffries from the left.  Mr. Mamdani indicates that he is opposed to Mr. Osse making such a challenge.

TX-2: Four-term US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble/Houston) released a Meeting Street Insights Republican primary poll (10/21-23; 400 TX-2 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) that posts the incumbent to a 47-19% over state Rep. Steve Toth (R-Spring). The Texas primary is March 3, 2026. The Crenshaw-Toth campaign is expected to be competitive.

TX-19: House Budget Committee chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) announced he will not seek re-election to a sixth term next year from his safely Republican Lubbock-anchored congressional district. In his announcement, the Congressman stressed that serving in elective office should be temporary, as our founding fathers outlined. TX-19 is safely Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 72.9R – 25.2D), and Rep. Arrington’s successor will be the ensuing Republican primary winner.

Utah Redistricting: Utah has new congressional lines.  Previously, a judge had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature had ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion. The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. The chosen plan creates a Salt Lake City metro district that will assuredly elect a Democratic Representative and change the Utah delegation to one having three Republicans and a Democrat.

The adopted plan means two Republicans will be paired for re-election.  The most likely outcome is Republican Representatives Celeste Maloy and Mike Kennedy fighting to represent the state’s new 3rd CD. In the new Democratic 1st District, two prominent party members have already stepped forward to run for the seat: former Congressman Ben McAdams and state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Salt Lake City).

VA-2: Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), who was defeated for re-election in 2022, announced that she will return for a rematch with the woman who unseated her, US Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach). The 2nd District is politically marginal, but if the Democrats’ redistricting effort is successful, this district will almost assuredly flip.

GOVERNOR

Arizona: Grayhouse Polling released their new statewide Republican primary survey (10/26-28; 397 AZ likely voters) and the results post US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) leading 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson 43-19% in the Republican primary. Recent entry David Schweikert, the eight-term 1st District Congressman, registers only 2% support. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge vulnerable Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Mr. Biggs has been the consistent leader in polling since his announcement earlier this year.

Connecticut: As has been expected for months, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) finally acknowledged that he will seek a third term as Governor next year. The Governor will be a heavy favorite for re-election but apparently will face a Democratic primary opponent.

State Rep. Josh Elliott (D-Hamden), who announced his gubernatorial bid in July indicated that he will stay in the race and attack the Governor from the left. He points to wins in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia last week to support his claims that the party base is solidly left and demands action.

New Mexico: State Sen. Steve Lanier (R-Aztec) announced that he will enter the 2026 gubernatorial campaign. He joins Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull in the GOP primary. Most of the action will be on the Democratic side, as three major candidates, former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima compete for the party nomination. Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. 

New York: Now that US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) is an officially announced gubernatorial candidate, the J.L. Partners research firm conducted a statewide survey. The poll (11/9-10; 500 NY likely voters; live interview & text) found Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leading Rep. Stefanik by only a 46-43% clip, which is relatively consistent with the Manhattan Institute survey (10/22-26; 900 NY likely voters) that forecasted a 43-42% Stefanik advantage.

STATE AND LOCAL

Alaska: Another effort to repeal the state’s Top Four jungle primary, where the first four finishers in the August primary advance to the general election, is underway. The proponents have filed a volume of signatures well beyond the requisite number and await approval for the ballot. The 2024 statewide ballot proposition to repeal the process failed by just 664 votes.

Alaska’s current electoral system features Ranked Choice Voting if no candidate receives majority support in the general election. Adding RCV has clearly helped the Democrats and allowed them to twice win an at-large congressional race and force coalition control in the state legislature. Another close vote is forecast, assuming the initiative qualifies for the ballot.

Seattle: In another domain that takes days to count ballots, while leading in the early counting Mayor Bruce Harrell (D) has now lost a close re-election battle to Democratic Socialist candidate Katie Wilson.  The vote spread was 1,976 votes, meaning a 50.2 – 49.5% split. Ms. Wilson advocates some of the same policies as does New York Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani.