A resolution looks imminent

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  The topic headlining this week continues to be a spending deal, though today we are pleased to report that a resolution looks imminent.  As funding expires at the end of the month and lawmakers are eager to adjourn and hit the campaign trail, they’ve arrived at a short-term agreement to fund the government to just before Christmas.  More below.

Financial Services and Banking Updates

SEC Commission to Testify

Tomorrow, SEC Chair Gary Gensler will be joined by the other 4 SEC Commissioners in testifying before the House Financial Services Committee. The full Commission last testified 5 years to the day in 2019.  Chairman Gensler has driven a very active agenda during his term as Chairman, which has drawn the ire of some lawmakers and many downtown.  Expect accountability and general performance at the SEC to be an area of focus from Republicans, as well as treatment of digital assets and ESG.  A number of discussion drafts are attached to the hearing as well, many focused on defi, innovation, and tokenization.  The SEC Commission will make a repeat appearance before Senate Banking on Wednesday.

HFSC Critiques FHFA’s “Political Agenda”

A hearing scheduled for this Thursday will examine FHFA’s policies against a broader political backdrop.  This hearing replaces FHFA Director Sandra Thompson’s scheduled appearance, which was cancelled as she recovers from injury.  However, the hearing may fall off the calendar if the House leaves town on Wednesday.

Congressional Updates

Lawmakers Look to Avert Shutdown

Yesterday, House and Senate appropriations released continuing resolution text that would extend current funding levels through December 20, 2024, setting up another spending showdown just before the Christmas departure.  The CR is fairly clean, providing additional money for Secret Service, National Archives presidential transition activities, and District of Columbia emergency planning and security costs affiliated with inauguration.  What is not included is disaster aid, which many Democrats prioritized, and the SAVE Act, the controversial legislation requiring voters to prove citizenship in order to register to vote.  You can view the section-by-section here.  While many in Speaker Mike Johnson’s party are unhappy, the Speaker calls this “the most prudent path forward under the present circumstances,” in a Sunday letter to his colleagues.  The bill goes to Rules this afternoon and will likely rely on Democratic votes to advance, as hardliners on the Committee are dissatisfied about both process and content.  The House is targeting a Wednesday vote, again relying on Democratic support for passage, before sending it to the Senate for an end-of-the-week vote.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

PRESIDENT
 
Iowa:  Media stories are covering the newly released Selzer & Company Iowa poll, which has proven to be the state’s most accurate pollster.  According to the Selzer survey (9/8-11; 656 IA likely voters; live interview), Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Harris is 47-43%, which is being cast as a closing of the race in what has been a strong Trump state.

Researching the Selzer September 17-19 Iowa poll in 2020, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the ballot test showed a tie between Mr. Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D).  The Republican would then move onto record an eight point victory in the succeeding election. 

SENATE
 
Maryland:  Emerson College and The Hill newspaper released the results of their latest Maryland US Senate survey (9/12-13; 890 MD likely voters; multiple sampling techniques).  According to the polling results, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) again tops former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error.  The ballot test finds Ms. Alsobrooks’ advantage at 49-42%.

Mr. Hogan, while still enjoying very strong personal favorability ratings, even among Democrats, must overcome what will be one of the largest landslide victories for Kamala Harris of any state.  Thus, seeing potentially a 30-point Democratic win at the top of the Maryland ballot makes it extremely difficult for any Republican to overcome such a wave in their down ballot elections.

Michigan:  Since the beginning of September, we’ve seen the release of four non-tracking public polls testing the open Senate race between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) who served in the House for 14 years.  

The Cygnal, YouGov, co/efficient, and Redfield and Wilton Strategies research firms were in the Michigan field from August 28th through September 9th with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 1,077 Michigan registered and likely voters. 

While Rep. Slotkin held significant leads through the month of August, the September polls show a varying support level.  Ms. Slotkin leads in all of the polls, but her margins range from a high of seven points to an edge of just one point that two of the pollsters detected.  The four-poll average showed a Slotkin lead of just over three percentage points.

Missouri:  While the Missouri Senate race had been largely ignored for most of the year, we now see three polls released almost simultaneously.  The GQR survey for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign (9/6-12; 645 MO likely voters) produced a surprisingly close 50-46% margin in Sen. Hawley’s favor.

Two more surveys followed, each with very different results.  Change Research (9/11-13; 1,237 MO registered voters; online) sees the Hawley advantage at 46-41%.  Emerson College, polling for The Hill Newspaper (9/12-13; 850 MO likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Sen. Hawley to a much larger twelve point lead over Mr. Kunce, 52-40%. 

Based upon Missouri voting history within the past twelve years, Sen. Hawley still should be favored, but it is clear this race will be drawing increasing attention as Democrats attempt to expand the Senate map.

Ohio:  According to the latest available Federal Election Commission reports that will soon be updated (filing deadline is October 15th), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) has enjoyed a huge fundraising and spending advantage over Republican businessman Bernie Moreno.  Through June 30th, Sen. Brown had raised $52.8 million compared to Mr. Moreno’s $15.8 million with a spending advantage of $43.4 million to $11.2 million.

Super PACs, however, lessened the resource deficit for Moreno, and now one entity is set to make a further expenditure to help the challenger.  According to the Open Secrets.com organization, the money spent to support Republicans and oppose Democrats in this Buckeye State Senate race was $65 million versus the $23 million spent to support Democrats and oppose Republicans.  Now, the crypto currency aligned Super PAC, Defend American Jobs, has upped its spending to a reported $27 million to aid Mr. Moreno.  Originally, the group announced, according to The Down Ballot campaign analysis website, that it would spend $12 million. 

With the Ohio race getting closer, expect much more money to find its way into this race.  The most recent poll (Morning Consult tracking survey; 8/30-9/8; 1,558 OH likely voters; online) finds Mr. Moreno closing to within three percentage points of Sen. Brown, 46-43%.

Pennsylvania:  Three new polls were released of the Pennsylvania Senate race and all show Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) leading, but the size of his margin is wide ranging.

Quinnipiac University (9/12-16; 1,331 PA likely voters; live interview) gives Sen. Casey his largest lead, nine points, at 52-43%.  Insider Advantage (9/14-15; 800 PA likely voters; live interview and text) and Suffolk University (9/11-15; 500 PA likely voters) see a much closer contest with five and four point spreads, respectively.  IA posts a 49-44% split, while Suffolk sees a 47-43% margin.

HOUSE
 
CA-22:  California’s Fresno area 22nd District is the second-most Democratic seat that elects a Republican to the House of Representatives.  Therefore, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is always in a difficult re-election campaign.   The Normington Petts research firm returned a late August survey (part of a six district series conducted for the House Majority PAC; 8/25-27; 400 CA-22 likely voters) that finds Rep. Valadao trailing former state Assemblyman and 2022 opponent Rudy Salas (D) by two percentage points, 46-44%. 

The analysis indicates that voters oppose Project 2025, feel Republicans would be a “rubber stamp” for a new Trump Administration and concentrates on the abortion issue. The tone of the responses suggests the question series falls into the push poll category.  It is highly doubtful that in one of the lowest turnout districts in the country respondents would be familiar enough with Project 2025, a publication from the Heritage Foundation and not any candidate or the Republican Party, to harbor such a negative opinion.  It is clear, however, that this race lies in the toss-up category as the ballot test shows.

CA-41:  There is little doubt that Republicans lost some momentum across the board in late August, but a newly released early September survey in California’s 41st District can’t be right.  RMG Research conducted a series of online polls for US Term Limits over a long sampling period.  The CA-41 study (9/5-12; 450 CA-41 likely voters; online) finds 16-term US Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) trailing former federal prosecutor and 2022 Democratic nominee Will Rollins by a 41-35% split.
 
Mr. Calvert, who has represented the Riverside area for 32 years and defeated Rollins 52-48% in 2022, must have more support than 35% in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7.  While this is again a competitive race, such a poll result, also with an unusually high undecided figure, should be considered as an outlier.
 
IA-1:  Iowa US Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Iowa portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region. 

In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Representative Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46% victory margin.  This week, Ms. Bohannan released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (8/27-29; 400 IA-1 likely voters) that found the two candidates tied at 47% apiece.  Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56% in the Republican primary thus suggesting that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.

ME-2:  Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine poll (9/5-15; 398 ME-2 likely voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result.  The data finds three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Representative Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three point, 47-44%, margin.

The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that brought Mr. Golden to Congress.  In that election, Mr. Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes.  Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump likely to carry the district as he has done twice before, it may very well end with Rep. Golden again winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.

NJ-10:  On Tuesday, voters in the Newark metropolitan area went to the polls to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark), who passed away toward the end of April.  The winner of Tuesday night’s special election is, as expected, Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D).  She captured 81% of the vote from a turnout that will barely reach 30,000 voters.  Upon certification of the results, Ms. McIver will immediately be sworn into the House to complete the balance of the current term.  She is then the prohibitive favorite to win a full term in the November general election.

With Ms. McIver’s election, the House party division count is now 220R - 212D with three vacancies (2D and 1R).  The other seats, in New Jersey, Texas, and Wisconsin, will all be filled concurrently with the November 5th general election.

VA-2:  A pair of congressional polls were released for the Tidewater area’s 2nd Congressional District.  Both pollsters find close results, which is no surprise for a district that typically features tight campaigns.  On the ballot is Virginia freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) and businesswoman Missy Cotter Smasal (D).  For the House Majority PAC, a Super PAC with ties to the Democratic leadership, Impact Research reports their results in a poll conducted in late August and part of a six district series (8/20-25; 500 VA-2 likely voters; live interview).  The results give Rep. Kiggans only a one point edge, 48-47%.

A more recent survey gives Ms. Kiggans some better news.  Christopher Newport University tested the 2nd District electorate (9/6-10; 792 VA-2 likely voters; live interview) and they find the Congresswoman in stronger shape with a 45-40% edge.

GOVERNOR

Indiana:  Emerson College (for The Hill newspaper; 9/12-13; 1,000 IN likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested the open Indiana Governor’s race, a contest that has attracted little in the way of national attention.

As expected, Sen. Mike Braun (R), after polling last week showed a closer race (Lake Research Partners; 8/26-9/2; Braun, 41-39%), tops former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick (D) by a 45-34% margin spread.  The latter poll likely reflects the more accurate Governor’s race standing, since it is consistent with the numbers for President (Trump leading 57-40%) and the open US Senate race (Rep. Jim Banks (R) leading 47-33%). 

Ms. McCormick was elected to her statewide education office in 2016, as a Republican, which is the last election before the position became appointed.  After leaving office, Ms. McCormick switched her political party allegiance to the Democrats.

Ohio:  Buckeye State Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already political observers are pointing to meetings and movements from potential candidates.  Involving themselves in the Springfield, Ohio Haitian migrant controversy, both former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and ex-Rep. and 2018 US Senate candidate Jim Renacci (R) are scheduling meetings to encourage positive dialog within the community.  Each man is considered as a potential Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Other potential contenders are Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), along with Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther (D), and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval (D).