A good amount of back-and-forth this week

Welcome back to the Golden Apple. The focus this week continues to be on DHS funding.  Last week, Congress passed appropriations bills for all other agencies, with an agreement to work on an agreement on changes to ICE procedures. That deadline expires on Friday, so we expect a good amount of back-and-forth this week. The House and Senate are in recess next week.

Financial Services and Banking Updates

Monday Suspensions: The House suspension calendar includes a number of bills from the Financial Services Committee, including Chairman French Hill’s Housing for the 21st Century Act, a sweeping piece of legislation that modernizes, expands, and improves numerous housing programs across HUD, rural housing programs, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and community banks. The bill received near-unanimous support when reported out of Committee, so we expect a high vote tally on the floor tonight.

Financial Services Committee Examines Housing: In a hearing tomorrow morning, the full Committee will review housing costs, including the cost of borrowing, undersupply, and access to credit. Two discussion drafts attached to the hearing address single-family home purchases with a goal of preserving more single-family home purchases for primary occupiers and small nonprofits, local governments, or trusts.

Atkins Testimony: Making his first appearance since his confirmation last April, SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Atkins has testified before other committees prior to this appearance. The recent collapse of crypto market structure negotiations in the Senate is very fresh, so expect questions on that legislation as well as on executive conflicts of interest, among other topics.

White House Convenes Second Crypto Meeting: Speaking of, tomorrow, the White House will convene its second meeting of banks and crypto companies in an effort to continue talks on the yield/reward issue. Last week’s meeting did not produce significant outcomes, but attendees are asked to bring to this week’s meeting more specific suggested changes to the text.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Kentucky:  The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm conducted a poll for businessman Nate Morris’ campaign and finds their sponsor pulling into range of creating a three-way Republican May 19th primary race for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R). 

According to the survey (1/27-29; 800 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron continues to lead the race but within a much closer margin. The ballot test yields a 29-21-18% split with US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and Mr. Morris trailing. 

Emerson College, however, finds a completely different result. Their survey (1/31-2/1; 523 KY likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Rep. Barr holding the lead, 24-21-14%, over Messrs. Cameron and Morris, respectively.

While Mr. Cameron performs well in polling, he badly trails in fundraising.  Rep. Barr has raised just under $6.5 million, while Mr. Morris has over $6 million in receipts with $4.4 million of that figure coming from himself. Mr. Cameron has pulled in only $1.6 million with just over $600,000 in his campaign account. Rep. Barr has more than $6 million in cash-on-hand, and Mr. Morris is the beneficiary of a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk has largely funded.

Louisiana:  A BPDC survey for the Julia Letlow campaign (1/20-22; 600 LA likely Republican primary voters), taken before the candidate entered the race, posts the northeastern Louisiana Congresswoman to a 27-21-14% edge over Sen. Bill Cassidy and LA Treasurer John Fleming. 

The campaign is evolving into a three-way contest. St. Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced that he is ending his effort and instead entering Rep. Letlow’s open 5th District Republican primary.  Immediately, the Club for Growth organization announced their endorsement for Sen. Miguez. Additionally, St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden (R) also exited the race. 

The Louisiana primary is scheduled for May 16th. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff election on June 27th.

Minnesota:  Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan received some good news in her quest to win the open Democratic Senatorial nomination. Outgoing Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her endorsement of Ms. Flanagan over US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).  Rep. Craig also posts good news. She outraised Ms. Flanagan in the 4th quarter, $2.06 million to $977,000.  Rep. Craig also has a $6.3 million to $3.2 million cash-on-hand advantage. The Minnesota primary is not until August 11th, so this campaign will more firmly develop over the course of the next several months.

On the Republican side, a Peak Insights poll conducted for the Michelle Tafoya campaign (1/31-2/1; 500 MN likely Republican primary voters; online and text) found the former national sportscast figure leading all other Republicans by a substantial margin. Ms. Tafoya tops 2024 US Senate nominee and former NBA professional basketball player Royce West, 41-11%, with no other contender reaching double-digits. 

New Hampshire:  During the week, President Trump announced his endorsement of former US Senator John E. Sununu (R) in his bid for the open New Hampshire Senate seat.  The decision came as a blow to former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s hopes for the Republican nomination, especially since the latter man was a Trump appointee in his first Administration. 

For the Democrats, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the consensus party candidate. The New Hampshire primary is one of the latest in the country, September 8th. Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is not seeking a fourth term.

HOUSE

AL-1:  Former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat when he and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) were paired after a court-ordered redistricting in 2024, appears headed back to Congress.  Mr. Carl released his internal AM Research Group poll (1/31-2/2; sample size and methodology not publicized) that sees him posting a 43% preference figure.  His closest opponent, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise), only reaches a 7% support level. 

California Redistricting:  The US Supreme Court rejected a Republican appellate motion claiming the new California congressional redistricting map is a racial gerrymander.  This means the new plan, where Democrats believe they can gain an additional five seats from the 52-member delegation, will be in effect for the 2026 election. 

GA-11:  Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville), saying that holding a congressional seat is a service and not a career, announced that he will not seek a 7th term in the House later this year.  Prior to being elected to Congress in 2014, Mr. Loudermilk served eight years in the Georgia legislature. 

A total of 55 House seats are open for the next election, including three currently in a special election cycle.  Over his six congressional elections, Mr. Loudermilk averaged a 69.6% voter support level.  The open 11th District will remain in Republican hands, and a crowded GOP field will soon form.

Maryland Redistricting:  The Maryland House of Delegates passed a congressional redistricting map that could yield an 8D-0R delegation.  State Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) reiterates that he is opposed to redistricting saying that an 8D-0R map could actually endanger two Democratic incumbents. He says the bill will not be scheduled for a vote.

MA-4:  Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey (D), who ran for the 4th District seat in 2020, announced she will return in this cycle.  She will challenge now three-term incumbent Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton). Considering that the Congressman already has almost $7 million in his campaign account, Ms. Leckey faces a major challenge in the September 1st Democratic primary.

NJ-11:  The February 5th special primary to choose a congressional replacement for Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D) is still too close to call.  With approximately 6,000 votes remaining to be counted, a close finish is unfolding between political activist and former Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) staff member Analilia Mejia and former Congressman Tom Malinowski. At this writing, Mejia leads Malinowski by 486 votes. 

The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored for the April 16th special general election.  Should Ms. Mejia claim the victory, which now appears likely considering from which counties the outstanding votes lie, it remains to be seen if the Republicans put serious money behind their nominee. Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway was unopposed last night in the GOP primary.

New York Redistricting:  Republicans have appealed the lower court ruling declaring the state’s 11th District a racial gerrymander under the New York Voting Rights Act. This is the first time that a congressional redistricting case has been challenged under such a state law. Under New York procedure, an appeal automatically stays the previous decision, so the order to redraw the district by the end of this week is suspended.

NY-3:  Former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri (R), who in 2024 came surprisingly close to Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), announced that he will return for a rematch later this year.  In the previous election, Mr. LiPetri held Rep. Suozzi to a 52-48% victory margin, a respectable challenger finish considering he was outspent in a 7:1 ratio. It is likely that Mr. LiPetri will attract some outside support in this election because of his past performance.

TX-18:  After a very long special election cycle to replace the late Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) who passed away in March, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) won the special replacement election on January 31st.  Mr. Menefee will now serve the balance of the current term. The new Congressman defeated former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, 70-30%. The final vote count showed 24,652 individuals will cast their ballots, which is a very low number. 

Mr. Menefee’s tenure in the House may be short lived, however. On March 3rd, both he and Ms. Edwards will compete in the 2026 regular election primary for new District 18 against veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston). Because of the 2025 redistricting map, the 18th District, while still fully contained within Harris County and solidly Democratic, is considerably different than the district in which Mr. Menefee just prevailed. 

GOVERNOR

Georgia:  Billionaire Rick Jackson (R), a major Trump political donor, announced that he will enter the already crowded open Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary that features Lt. Governor Burt Jones, Attorney General Chris Carr, and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Mr. Jackson says he will spend $50 million of his own money on his campaign. For the Democrats, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms appears to be the leading candidate for the party nomination. 

New Mexico:  Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima announced that he is exiting the Democratic primary but will continue his gubernatorial campaign as an Independent. The leading Democratic candidates are former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New York:  The Siena University Research Institute released the results of their latest statewide poll (1/26-28; 802 NY registered voters; live interview and text) and projects Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to be holding a large lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R). This is the first regular poll released after US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) dropped out of the race.

According to the ballot test, Gov. Hochul leads Mr. Blakeman by a substantial 54-28%. Gov. Hochul also has a substantial lead in the Democratic primary, 64-11%, over Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado. 

South Carolina:  The polls for the South Carolina Republican Governor’s primary are very inconsistent. In mid-January, for example, we saw a Trafalgar Group survey (1/15-16; 1,076 SC likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette leading Attorney General Alan Wilson, US Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), and US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), 22-20-17-10%. 

This week, Targoz Research, polling for the South Carolina Policy Council (1/24-2/1; 1,200 SC registered voters; 540 SC likely Republican primary voters; online), released results finding Rep. Mace leading LG Evette, AG Wilson, and Rep. Norman, 18-12-12-11%. Obviously, we see a close race among all four major contenders, but one that is difficult to pinpoint.

STATE AND LOCAL

Texas State Senate:  On Saturday, Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by a 57-43% margin to claim a Ft. Worth anchored Texas Senate seat. This is another example of Democrats converting a Republican seat in a special election, a common pattern in 2025 and now early 2026.  

In 2024, President Trump carried the same district with an even more pronounced 58-41% spread. The previous Senate Republican incumbent, Kelly Hancock, was re-elected in 2022 with 60% of the vote. The seat was vacant because Ms. Hancock was appointed State Comptroller and is seeking election to a full term this year. 

It is not clear if the reason for Mr. Rehmet’s victory was ideologically based or because the Republican message is not adequately driving GOP base voters to the polls, but it is probable that the latter reason is mostly responsible.