A fairly quiet week

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  In light of a minor snow flurry in DC, though admittedly much more significant weather impacting members traveling from the Northeast, the House of Representatives has canceled votes this evening. It is a fairly quiet week legislatively, as the State of the Union slows activity on the House floor due to added security measures.

Financial Services Adds Institutional Investor Markup: HFSC scheduled a hearing for next week to consider legislation banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, a reflection of a priority recently announced by the White House. Specifically, the draft would apply to investors controlling more than 100 single-family homes. This markup comes as an institutional investor ban was not included in the floor consideration of the House’s “21st Century Housing Act,” which passed with wide bipartisan support earlier this month. Meanwhile, the Senate has its own bipartisan housing package, the “ROAD to Housing Act,” which the White House has also eyed as a landing spot for its institutional investor ban.

Prudential Regulators Testify in Senate Banking: On Thursday, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, FDIC Chair Travis Hill, OCC Comptroller Jonathan Gould, and NCUA Chair Kyle Hauptman will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on regulatory tailoring and reducing regulatory burden. In light of the Supreme Court’s tariff decision last week, we also expect some Senators to focus their questions on trade issues.

Moreno Introduces Competition in Banking Legislation: Last week, Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) introduced the “American Lending Fairness Act of 2026” to preserve competition between federally-chartered and state-chartered banks. The bill upholds the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (DIDMCA) and ensures that state-chartered banks can lend competitively across state lines. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) is leading companion legislation on the House side.  

Political Update from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Louisiana:  State Treasurer John Fleming (R) released the results of his internal JMC Analytics poll that, if accurate, turns the US Senate Republican primary on its head. The poll (2/14-16; 645 LA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Mr. Fleming, also a former Congressman and ex-Deputy chief of staff to President Trump in the first term, now pulling into a three-way contest with Sen. Bill Cassidy and US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start).

The ballot test actually finds Mr. Fleming claiming first position with a slight 26-25-22% edge over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy, respectively. Previously, polling had shown Mr. Fleming a distant third. The Louisiana primary election is scheduled for May 16th, with a runoff on June 27th should no candidate receive majority support in the first vote. Obviously, this race will draw major attention as the primary election season begins to unfold.

HOUSE

CA-3:  Quickly upon hearing Rep. Kevin Kiley’s (R-Rocklin/ Sacramento) announcement that he will not run in the new District 3 this year, Nevada County Supervisor Robb Tucker (R) declared his own congressional candidacy. Should Tucker qualify for the general election in the jungle primary, he will face US Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento), who decided to run in District 3 under the new California map rather than his previous District 6. Rep. Bera will now be favored in a new district that is newly drawn to elect a Democrat.

CT-3:  Attorney Damjan DeNoble has ended his Democratic primary challenge to veteran US Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven). This was one of more than a dozen challenges from younger Democrats against veteran House members beyond age 70. Rep. DeLauro is 82 years of age and has been in the House since 1991. It remains to be seen just how many of these challenges eventually prove successful.

Colorado Redistricting:  A new organization called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field announced that they will attempt to qualify a redistricting ballot proposition for November that will do the opposite of their stated name. The redistricting map would, if adopted, reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s eight congressional districts. Currently, the Colorado delegation is split 4D-4R.  If the group is successful in qualifying their initiative and the measure passes, the new map would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

NE-2:  The Nebraska candidate filing deadline for incumbents and office holders seeking different offices has now passed, so we are beginning to see how the Cornhusker State ballot will form. The only change in the federal outlook from previous elections is that Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), following through on his earlier announced retirement, did not file for re-election. 

Current office holders who filed to replace Rep. Bacon include Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding (R), state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) & Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades (D). 

Nebraska has a three-tiered filing process. Incumbents and office holders filing for different positions file first. Non-office holders will file their campaigns on or before March 1st, and non-major party candidates have until August 3rd to gather the required number of signatures for ballot line acquisition. 

The purpose of this filing system is to guard against incumbents not announcing their retirements in order to allow their favored successor to file with virtually no opposition. This very scenario happened earlier this year in Illinois when US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) surprisingly retired with no announcement, thus allowing his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman), to file as an unopposed Democratic Party candidate. 

NY-4:  Former Long Island state Assemblywoman Taylor Darling (D) said she will soon announce a primary challenge to freshman US Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) largely because the incumbent does not support the government shutdown over the ICE controversy. 

Ms. Gillen won the congressional seat in 2024 when she unseated US Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) after losing to him in 2022. Mr. D’Esposito, now a Trump Administration appointee, confirms he is considering launching a comeback campaign in this election cycle. At this point, Rep. Gillen is favored for renomination and re-election.

NY-19:  Former Congressman Marc Molinaro (R), who lost his seat in 2024 to freshman Rep. Josh Riley (D-Ithaca), announced that he will resign from his Trump Administration appointment to the Federal Transit Administration to instead run for an open state Assembly seat. There was speculation Mr. Molinaro would launch a return run for the congressional seat. The Republican leadership was clear, however, in their support for state Sen. Peter Oberacker (R-Maryland), who already has President Trump’s endorsement. 

Speculation also included Mr. Molinaro possibly running for retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-Schuylerville) open 21st District, but that idea was quelled when Republican leaders announced their backing for state Assemblyman Robert Smullen (R-Mohawk Valley).

New York Redistricting:  GOP Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis previously filed a lawsuit appealing a lower court ruling that declared her 11th Congressional District as a racial gerrymander. Her case is before the New York Appellate Division. 

Under New York judicial procedure, a motion to appeal automatically stays the previous ruling until heard by the upper courts. This week, the NY Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court and equivalent to a Supreme Court in most states, released a statement saying they would not hear the case on an expedited basis. The justices further emphasized that the Appellate Division is the proper authority to rule on the motion.

Therefore, a great deal of uncertainty remains. If the appellate division fails to act before the April 6th New York candidate filing deadline, would this lead to a postponement of the filing procedure and possibly the June 23rd primary? And, if the court delays the filing deadline and potentially the primary, would this apply statewide or just to the 11th Congressional District and the neighboring CDs that a redraw would affect? 

TX-18:  Another poll was released during the week that finds newly elected US Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leading veteran US Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in their paired Democratic primary race for the regular term.  Mr. Menefee was just elected in a January 31st special election in the current District 18.  He will serve the balance of the term left vacant when then-US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away. The new redistricting plan paired Mr. Menefee and Rep. Green into one district.

Even though the new district consists heavily of Green’s current CD-9 (65% of his constituency is now in CD-18), polling suggests that Mr. Menefee is the favorite. The University of Houston conducted a new survey of the Democratic primaries in three Harris County congressional districts (2/3-8; 1,000 CD-18 likely Democratic primary voters; text) and found the Menefee advantage over Rep. Green to be a whopping 52-28%. The Texas primary is fast approaching on March 3rd.

TX-29:  The University of Houston also surveyed new District 29 in Harris County. This survey (2/3-8; 500 CD-29 likely Democratic primary voters; text) projects US Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) topping former state Representative and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson (D), 46-27 percent. Should no candidate receive majority support in the March 3rd primary, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26th runoff election. 

Utah Redistricting:  In 2025, a Utah court ruled that the Beehive State’s congressional map was illegal because the legislature failed to adhere to voter passed criteria regarding the drawing of congressional districts. As a result, the court imposed a new map, one that will create a Salt Lake City-anchored seat that a Democrat will win. 

According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog,
Republican activists took to the streets and submitted ballot petition signatures to repeal the new map and thereby restore the previous plan. The activists have submitted a number of signatures well beyond the amount required to qualify a ballot initiative, but whether the signatures adhere to all provisions of the petition law remains unclear. 

Virginia Redistricting:  We have already seen a lower court ruling that negated Virginia’s attempt to redistrict because the judge ruled the legislature violated their own rules. The state Supreme Court, however, is allowing the proposed April 21st referendum, passage of which is the key for Democrats to redistrict, to proceed.

The decision would allow the public to vote on a proposed map, likely without the voters actually seeing the draw. Although the justices indicated they will continue to hear the case and review the previous ruling, the issue of whether the new map will be used for the 2026 election remains unclear.  

The proposed Virginia plan will radically change the state. Currently, the Democrats have six congressional seats in the Old Dominion delegation and Republicans’ five. The new plan projects that Democrats could gain four seats, thus making a 10D – 1R delegation.

GOVERNOR

California:  Emerson College has released the results of their latest California poll, which again suggests that two Republicans could possibly advance into the general election because the Democratic vote, overwhelming in California, will be split among so many different candidates. 

In this survey (2/13-14; 1,000 CA likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), Emerson finds former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) place first with 17% and US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) virtually tied for second position with 14% apiece. The next closest competitor is former Congresswoman Katie Porter (D), who posts just 10% support. 

Tavern Research, polling for ex-Health and Human Services Secretary, former CA Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (2/2-5; 1,097 CA likely June jungle primary voters; text to web) found similar results to Emerson College’s data. 

The Becerra poll finds Sheriff Bianco posting 20% support, possibly the highest number any candidate has received in a California jungle primary poll during this election cycle and Mr. Hilton at 12%, which again suggests the possibility of two Republicans advancing from the jungle primary to the November ballot. Following are Rep. Swalwell, billionaire Tom Steyer (D), Ex-Rep. Porter, Mr. Becerra, and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) with 10-9-6-3%, respectively.

New Hampshire:  Former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D), who lost the Democratic primary to then-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, announced that she will return to compete in the 2026 Governor’s race. She is the first well-known Democrat to file for the office.  Portsmouth Mayor Deaglan McEachern (D) is also expected to become a candidate. The eventual party nominee will oppose Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) who is seeking a second two-year term.

Oregon:  FM3 Research tested the upcoming Oregon Governor’s race where incumbent Tina Kotek (D) is seeking a second term.  The poll (1/28-2/4; 1,065 OR likely general election voters) tested Gov. Kotek against three prospective Republican opponents. 

The contender faring best is the woman who ran a close race against Ms. Kotek in 2022, state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby). The ballot test in this paring is 45-40% in the Governor’s favor. State Rep. Ed Diehl (R-Stayton) trails 43-37%, and former NBA basketball player and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Chris Dudley (R) is behind 45-35%. 

The fact that Gov. Kotek fails to reach 50% support against any Republican candidate suggests that Oregon voters could produce a competitive gubernatorial contest later this year.