15 days from the end of the fiscal year

BIG NEWS:  I am very excited to report that Lucy Harney was born on Tuesday evening.  Lucy and Catherine are doing well and are now back home with Ben and big brother Adam.  Unfortunately for you, I have taken over writing the Golden Apple until Catherine returns in January.  I have promised her to try to not run everyone off and to tone down my normally snarky comments. (I had my fingers crossed on the second promise.)    

Financial Services and Banking Updates

House Financial Services Committee Markup: The House Financial Services Committee has scheduled a markup of a number of bills on Tuesday.  The full list is here https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=410848.  There are 11 bills on the list.  

House Financial Services Hearings this Week: On Tuesday morning, the Housing and Insurance Subcommittee looks at reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act.  In the afternoon, the Task Force on Monetary Policy holds a hearing entitled "Less Mandates. More Independence,” which I am sure is merely a coincidence that it is scheduled for the same week as the Open Market Committee meetings at the Fed. 

On Wednesday, the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee will hear in the morning about financial fraud and threats to American families.  The Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence Subcommittee hears about the next generation of AI that afternoon.  Maybe they should have reversed the order of these two hearings.  

Senate Banking Committee: The Senate Banking Committee is still recovering from holding a hearing last week.  

Congressional Updates

Shutdown Looms: We are 15 days from the end of the fiscal year.  The House is expected to release a short-term Continuing Resolution later this week that will fund the federal government through November 20th.  The vote in the House is likely to be partisan since the House CR will not deal with the health care issues that the House Democrats want addressed.  The House is scheduled to be in recess next week and return on the 29th.  The Senate is waiting and talking among themselves, as they always do, and will force the House to take whatever they pass or shut down the government.  The possibility of a shutdown is higher this year due to the narrow partisan margin in the House and the reaction to a possible shutdown by the President.  

Charlie Kirk Assassination: The full ramifications of the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk is still unknown.  It has many members of Congress and other political figures concerned about their own security.  There is a lot of talk of adding additional security for members of the House and Senate.  Additional security may not be effective and will further isolate members from their constituents.  

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis:

SENATE
Iowa:  As predicted, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is quickly becoming a consensus Republican US Senate candidate to replace retiring GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.  President Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R), and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have all announced public endorsements.  No new Democratic candidate has announced since Sen. Ernst made clear last week that she would not seek re-election.

Kentucky:  A Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for the Keep America Great Super PAC (9/2-4; 600 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview), which supports US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), finds former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee David Cameron still leading the open Republican US Senate primary but with a lesser advantage.  The POS ballot test finds Cameron topping Rep. Barr and businessman Nate Morris, 37-29-8%. 

Mr. Barr also has a substantial cash-on-hand advantage over Mr. Cameron, according to the June 30th FEC quarterly financial disclosure reports.  The COH category finds Rep. Barr with $6.1 million in his account compared to Mr. Cameron’s small $532,000.

New Hampshire:  Republican former US Senator John E. Sununu, who is said to be seriously considering launching a comeback attempt for the position he lost in 2006, received favorable news from a newly released 1892 research firm survey.  The poll (9/2-4; 500 NH likely general election voters; live interview) finds Mr. Sununu pulling to within a 45-43% ballot test margin against consensus Democratic Senate candidate, US Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). 

Should Mr. Sununu become the GOP nominee, this open race becomes competitive.  In other polling, Rep. Pappas easily outdistances former Massachusetts US Sen. Scott Brown (R) and state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), the two announced GOP candidates. 

Texas:  As expected, state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) announced this week that he will compete for the Democratic US Senate nomination.  In the March 3rd race, he will face 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred.  The Republicans have their own primary battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. 

Public Policy Polling completed a Democratic primary survey (9/3-4; 510 TX likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and found Mr. Allred leading Rep. Talarico, 40-32%.  Should no candidate in either party secure majority support in the early March 3rd primary election, a runoff between the top two finishers will be conducted on May 26th.

HOUSE
CA-4:  Venture capitalist Eric Jones (D) announced that he will challenge US Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) in another intra-party Democratic battle that features a younger challenger to an aging long-term incumbent.  Rep. Thompson, who has averaged 69.4% of the vote over his 14 congressional elections, is again favored for re-election.

CA-7:  Last week, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D) filed a committee with the Federal Election Commission to potentially challenge veteran US Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento).  Now, Elk Grove Vice Mayor Sergio Robles (D) says he is also considering entering the race. 

The moves are obviously designed to encourage veteran Rep. Matsui, who will be 82 years of age at the time of the next election, to retire.  So far, the Congresswoman, who succeeded her late husband, Rep. Bob Matsui, in 2005, says she will seek re-election.

CA-32:  Ex-congressional staff member Jake Rakov (D) announced he is ending his challenge to his former employer, US Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks).  The Rakov exit leaves former Biden Administration official Jake Levine (D) as the Congressman’s main early challenger.  Mr. Levine is the son of former US Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA).  Rep. Sherman, first elected in 1996, will be favored for re-election.

IA-2:  Former US Rep. Rod Blum (R) announced that he will make a comeback in 2026.  With Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) running for Senate, the 2nd District becomes open.  Mr. Blum served two terms in the House before losing to Democrat Abby Finkenauer in 2018.  Ms. Hinson then unseated Finkenauer in 2020 and has held the seat since. 

State Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Alburnett) and former state Sen. Joe Miller are also competing for the Republican nomination.  The most prominent Democrat in what will be a competitive general election is state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque). 

Kansas:  Redistricting discussions are underway in Kansas, and there is talk that the legislature could move toward a special session.  Since it is clear that Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will not call the legislature back, 2/3 of members from both houses must support the move for a special session. 

Should a session be called and a map introduced, Republicans would realistically need 2/3 support for a bill in both houses because Democratic Gov. Kelly is sure to veto what the legislature produces.  Seeing a new Kansas plan being enacted is a long shot.

Missouri:  The state House of Representatives this week passed a map that changes US Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) Kansas City anchored 5th District into a Republican seat by stretching it into the rural areas.  The state Senate is expected to follow suit, and Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) will reportedly sign the new map into law.  Therefore, the chances of Republicans gaining one seat in Missouri are high.

NY-12:  Jack Schlossburg (D), grandson of the late President John F. Kennedy, is likely to enter the open 12th District race now that veteran US Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City) is retiring.  A very crowded Democratic primary is expected for the Midtown Manhattan open seat.  Already announced are state Assemblyman Micah Lasher (D-New York City) and non-profit group founder Liam Elkind.

PA-10:  The chances of 2024 congressional nominee and former news anchor Janelle Stenson having a clear path to the ’26 Democratic nomination have apparently dissipated.  Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas (D) announced his candidacy, meaning we will see a competitive Democratic primary.  In November, Ms. Stenson held seven-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg) to a 51-49% re-election margin.

TX-8:  Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) announced that he will not seek a third term in 2026, saying he wants to return full-time to the Lone Star State.  Including the new seats from the 2025 Texas redistricting map, six of the state’s 38 congressional seats will be open in the 2026 election.  It appears that at least 11 of the 38 will see major competition in either the primary or general election.

TX-23:  Susan Storey Rubio, a prominent west Texas rancher who had earlier announced a Republican primary challenge to US Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio), is ending her political effort.  Under the new Texas redistricting map, Ms. Rubio is no longer a resident of the 23rd CD, so she has decided to cease campaigning.

TX-33:  Should the new Texas map withstand the legal challenges, the political situation is beginning to resolve itself for the new Dallas County 33rd Congressional District.  Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch/Dallas), whose 32nd CD is now mostly in East Texas, says she will run in District 33. 

The current incumbent, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), with the base of his support no longer in TX-33, indicates he is instead exploring a run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive).  The new 33rd is safely Democratic, so the party primary will determine the next congressional member.

VA-11:  As expected, Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) easily defeated Republican former FBI agent Stewart Whitson, 75-25%, to win the special congressional election.  Mr. Walkinshaw will replace the late US Rep. Gerry Connolly (D), who passed away in May. The Representative-Elect will serve the balance of the current term and is favored to win again in the 2026 regular election.

Upon Walkinshaw being sworn into the House, the partisan division will move to 219R-213D, with three vacancies.  The next special election will be held on September 23rd in Arizona’s 7th CD where former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) is favored to win the seat of her late father, Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), who passed away in March.

GOVERNOR
Colorado:  State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County), who lost a close congressional bid in 2022, announced that she will enter the open Governor’s race next year.  A large Republican field has formed, including former Congressman Greg Lopez, state Sen. Mark Baisley (R-Salina), and state Rep. Scott Bottoms (R-Colorado Springs). 

Democratic US Senator Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser are competing for the party’s gubernatorial nomination.  Sen. Bennet is favored for the nomination and the general election.  Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Florida:  US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) continues to build a strong gubernatorial campaign.  A new survey finds the Congressman leading 40-2-2% over former state House Speaker Paul Renner and newly appointed Lt. Governor Jay Collins.  This, from a Tyson Group Republican primary poll (for the American Promise organization; 9/4-5; 800 FL likely Republican primary voters).  Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Minnesota:  Gov. Tim Walz (D), the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, is reportedly confirming to Minnesota political leaders that he will seek a third term and announce publicly within the next few days.

Rhode Island:  Businesswoman and 2022 Democratic gubernatorial candidate Helen Foulkes announced that she will return for a 2026 rematch with Gov. Dan McKee (D).  Rhode Island will again host a competitive Democratic primary. 

In 2022, Gov. McKee, who ascended to the office from his position as Lt. Governor when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary in the Biden Administration, won the party primary with only a 32.8 – 29.9% margin over Ms. Foulkes.  The latter is the former CEO of Hudson’s Bay Company and the niece of former Connecticut US Senator Christopher Dodd (D).

Wisconsin:  Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) announced his gubernatorial candidacy, hoping to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D).  Also in the Democratic primary is Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez.  Republicans see Washington County Executive Josh Shoemann and manufacturing company CEO Bill Berrien as announced candidates.  US Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) says he will decide whether to become a gubernatorial candidate by the end of September.

STATE AND LOCAL
Boston:  Emerson College released a survey of the Boston Mayor’s race, which gives incumbent Michelle Wu (D) a very large lead over her main opponent, businessman Josh Kraft (D) son of New England Patriots’ owner Robert Kraft, after she placed first in the primary election. 

According to the EC poll (9/2-3; 555 Boston registered voters; multiple sampling techniques) Mayor Wu is staked to a whopping 72-22% lead over Mr. Kraft.  The two advanced into the general election in the September 9th primary.  In that vote, Mayor Wu received 72% as compared to Mr. Kraft’s 23% as the second place finisher, just as the poll result reflected.

Charlotte:  Mayor Vi Lyles (D), on the ballot for a fifth two-year term in North Carolina’s largest city, easily won her Democratic primary with 71% of the vote on September 9th.  She will be favored in the general election.