The House and Senate will be out next week for Juneteenth

Welcome back to the Golden Apple. The House and Senate will be out next week for Juneteenth, marking the day in 1865 when emancipation orders arrived in Galveston, Texas, more than two years after being issued by President Lincoln. 

Before we get to the financial services highlights of the week, we bring you two pieces of news that you may have missed over the weekend. The New World Screwworm, a flesh-eating parasite that can devastate cattle herds, has now been confirmed in two Texas cases. The one-third of the Eris Group that raises cattle is watching this development particularly closely.

Secondly, in a Friday decision, the Department of Defense has made enemies of Utah Senators Lee and Curtis and Rep. Mike Kennedy after they left the LDS Church off their list of designated Christian religions. The Utah legislators took to Twitter to express their outrage at the decision, as well as provide readouts from their communications with President Trump on the matter. As of this writing, the LDS Church has been re-designated by the DOD.

Sports Matters: Game 3 of the NBA playoffs will tip off tonight in New York.  For $10k or 20% of a bitcoin, you, too, can attend.  No one knows what percent of a bitcoin it might cost tomorrow.  The World Cup officially begins on Thursday with the Group A games; the U.S. plays its debut match on Friday at 9 p.m. against Paraguay.  Of equal importance to many (not us), the Congressional Baseball Game will take place this Wednesday at 7 p.m.

Senate Banking Committee Holds AI Hearing: On Thursday, the Senate Banking Committee will be holding a hearing on Artificial Intelligence, hearing from tech experts on American competitiveness, national security, and the cost of AI development.  Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren has invited Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang as the minority witness; the chipmaking company exports product to China, leading some Senators to question links to Chinese military improvements.  Artificial intelligence’s share of public attention has grown recently, with increased use in work, school, and everyday tasks.  Even so, Americans’ opinion of AI remains poor, reflecting concerns about impacts on creativity and social skills, impacts on teens, job displacement, environmental concerns, and more.

Financial Services Committee Subcommittee Hearings: This week, the Financial Services Committee activity is comprised of subcommittee hearings, with a Tuesday hearing on Chinese money laundering networks, a Wednesday housing hearing on disaster recovery, and a Friday field hearing in Oklahoma City on Fed Structure.  The schedule with access links can be found here.

Four States with Primaries Tomorrow: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina will go to the polls tomorrow.  Maine has crowded race on the Democratic side for Governor, as well as on both sides for the 2nd district Congressional seat being vacated by Democrat Jared Golden.  Nevada will elect a new governor this year as well, but both parties have uncompetitive primaries.  The election for NV-2 to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Mark Amodei is crowded on both sides, with 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats competing.  South Carolina will see competition on the Republican side for Governor in a race featuring the collaborative braintrust offered by Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman.  While Attorney General Alan Wilson is leading the polling, Mace and Norman have carried on entertaining and eventful primary races and are tied in fourth place with 11% of the vote each.

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis:

PRIMARY RESULTS

California:  The Governor and Los Angeles Mayor’s contests dominated the pre-election coverage.  With just over half the vote counted, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the huge 60-person field.  Closely behind is former Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 22-year congressional veteran Xavier Becerra. 

When all the votes are counted, which could be 34 days from now, it appears that both men will advance into the general election. 

Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) is in third place, but it appears his effort to reach the general election will fail. The same for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), who, for a time, was in competition for one of the runoff slots. Former US Rep. Katie Porter (D) will also be eliminated.

In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) will be forced into a runoff election. It appears she will secure just 36% of the vote when all ballots are counted.  Advancing to the November runoff appears to be upstart Republican Spencer Pratt.  His vote percentage likely places him far enough ahead of LA City Councilwoman Nithya Raman to secure the second slot. 

Because just over half the votes are counted, it is difficult to draw conclusions about how the House races unfolded.  It does appear, however, that veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) will advance to the November general election with another Democrat, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang.  This is a race to watch in November.

Other Democratic members falling below the 50% mark in the jungle primary will still do well in the general election because they are drawing Republican opponents and not other Democrats. 

For the Republicans, in the southern California pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra), both will advance to the general election.  Mr. Calvert, however, has a large lead coming from the primary vote.

The other general election contest to watch is in San Diego where SD County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) clinched the first runoff position and will face San Diego City Councilwoman Marni Van Wilpert (D) who was a distant second.  This open seat race, though designed to elect a Democrat, will be very close in November. 

Finally, in the race to replace retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her San Francisco congressional district, as expected, state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) will both advance to the general election.

Iowa:  The surprising Republican gubernatorial winner was technology company executive Zach Lahn, defeating US Congressman Randy Feenstra (R-Hull). Mr. Lahn will face State Auditor Rob Sand (D) who was unopposed in the Democratic primary.  This will be a very competitive general election pairing.

As expected, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) will square off in the US Senate general election.  Democrats need to make this a competitive race to have a chance at taking the Senate majority.  Rep. Hinson begins the general election campaign as the favorite.

Three of the state’s four congressional races will be competitive.  The open 2nd District also went as predicted.  Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell easily won the Republican primary as did state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) in the Democratic primary. 

The 1st District will see the third version of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Representative Cynthia Bohannan (D) opposing each other.  The Congresswoman performed much better in yesterday’s Republican primary (over 70% of the vote) as compared to her 2024 standing.

Montana:  As expected, former US Attorney Scott Alme easily won the Republican US Senate primary.  He will be favored to succeed retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R).

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is retiring and his chosen replacement, radio talk show host Aaron Flint, won the 1st District Republican primary.  It will likely be some time before the Democratic nominee is officially elected.  The initial vote totals show a tight finish between smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag and former gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse.

New Jersey:  The key race on the New Jersey ballot is the 7th Congressional District, and the Democratic primary went as expected.  The easy winner against a crowded field is businesswoman and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett.  She will now challenge two-term US Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) who has been absent from the House for over two months related to an undisclosed health situation. More on this campaign in the House section below.

In the open 12th District, where the Democratic primary winner was a lock to replace retiring US Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), physician Adam Hamawy claimed the party nomination.  He is now favored to win the general election.

New Mexico:  Former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland is the landslide Democratic gubernatorial primary winner, defeating Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman to secure the party nomination.  She becomes a heavy favorite to win the open November race against new Republican nominee Gregg Hull, the Rio Rancho Mayor.

In the competitive 2nd District, retired police officer Greg Cunningham (R) will challenge two-term US Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces).

South Dakota:  The South Dakota Governor’s race was the second to see a businessman defeat established political figures.  Businessman Toby Doeden advances to a July 28th Republican runoff against Gov. Larry Rhoden, who is on the ballot seeking a full term in his own right after succeeding Kristi Noem when she resigned to accept a position in the Trump Administration.  Congressman Dusty Johnson (D-Mitchell) was close behind in third position but did not receive enough late votes to overtake the Governor for second position.

In the state’s lone House race, multi-term Attorney General Marty Jackley, as expected, was a landslide Republican primary winner. He will go on to capture the general election in November and enter the new Congress at the beginning of January.

SENATE

Massachusetts: The Massachusetts Democratic Party endorsing convention was held last weekend, and Sen. Ed Markey (D) easily defeated US Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) to become the official Democratic Party endorsed Senate candidate for the September 1st primary election.  Sen. Markey recorded a 73-27% margin over Rep. Moulton.  The Congressman, however, exceeded the minimum 15% plateau necessary to earn a ballot position on the primary ballot; therefore, we will see the Markey-Moulton campaign continue through to the primary election.

Minnesota:  As expected, the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party easily endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D).  Ms. Flanagan’s Democratic opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), previously announced that she would not compete for the Minnesota Democratic Farm Labor Party but will force a primary election.  A new Global Strategy Group survey (for the North Star Dawn Super PAC; 5/26-28; 600 MN likely general election voters; live interview) finds the two candidates virtually tied for the primary nomination.  The ballot test gives Rep. Craig the slightest of edges, 43-42 percent.

HOUSE  

CA-1:   There is a new US House member in the California delegation.  Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won the 1st District special election outright, and he will immediately be sworn into office to finish the late US Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R) term.  Mr. Gallagher, though leading in the new 1st District regular primary, which is much different than the seat in which he clinched the special election, will be considered at least a slight underdog in the general against state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) even though the latter man fell short of expectations in Tuesday’s voting. 

FL-20:  US Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) announced that she will seek re-election in the state’s new 20th District since her current 25th CD was drastically changed in the new redistricting map.  Ms. Wasserman Schultz will run in an area with a heavy minority population, much different than the current district she represents.  Because this is a minority district, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is refusing to endorse Rep. Wasserman Schultz’s move.

FL-24:  Florida political observers had been anticipating a congressional retirement announcement, and this week the expectation became reality. Veteran Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) announced that she will not seek a ninth term in the House.  Rep. Wilson, age 83, has been absent for several weeks while recovering from eye surgery. 
 
Ms. Wilson was first elected to Congress in 2010 after serving twelve years in the state legislature.  Since winning her initial federal race, she has averaged 81% of the vote in her seven South Florida re-election campaigns, including two cycles in which she ran unopposed.

Even under the new Florida Republican redistricting map, the open 24th District will remain safely Democratic.  According to Dave’s Redistricting App, FL‑24 has a partisan lean of 73.0D–26.2R.

FL-25:  Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), as expected, announced that he will seek re-election in the new 25th CD under Florida’s updated redistricting map.  The new district contains about half of his 23rd District constituency.  The new 25th leans Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 52.3R – 47.0D).  Announced Republican candidates include Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer and former state Representative George Moraitis. 

HI-1:  The 1st District Democratic primary has winnowed.  US Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) will now face state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe) and three others in the August 8th primary election.  State Rep. Della Au Belatti (D-Makiki) announced during the week that she is ending her congressional campaign.  The Congressman is favored for renomination but this is another primary challenge campaign that merits attention.

Louisiana Redistricting:  The state legislature agreed on a new redistricting map that Gov. Jeff Landry (R) promised to sign.  The change returns the state to a 5R-1D map, with US Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) being the redistricting victim. 

NJ-7:  The Democratic Super PAC 314 Action conducted a poll of the aforementioned 7th District congressional race immediately after the primary election (Z to A Research; 430 NJ-7 likely general election voters; online & text) and found new Democratic nominee Rebecca Bennett (D) leading US Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) by a 47-43% clip. 

The poll result is not surprising since Rep. Kean has been absent from Congress for more than two months over an undisclosed health situation, the handling of which has caused people to question his whereabouts.  This will be a key national US House race.  Ms. Bennett scored a 45% victory over three Democratic opponents in Tuesday’s plurality primary election to become the party’s official nominee.

NY-13:  The Democratic primary challenge to US Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-Harlem) is getting more intense.  During the week, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) endorsed the Congressman’s primary opponent, pro-Palestinian leader Darializa Avila Chevalier in the June 23rd primary election.  The Congressman is favored for renomination, but this will be another race to watch in the late June NY primary.

GOVERNOR

Minnesota:  At the aforementioned Minnesota Republican Party endorsing convention, the GOP delegates chose technology executive Kendall Qualls over state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Richmond) as their endorsed gubernatorial candidate.  Both candidates, however, will advance to the August 11th party primary.  The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy underdog to Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who will easily win the Democratic nomination.  Gov. Tim Walz (D) chose not to seek a third term.