The House and Senate are back in for a two-week work period

Welcome back to the Golden Apple.  After a week-long break, the House and Senate are back in for a two-week work period before breaking again for Memorial Day. 

Crypto Market Structure Will Get a Vote: The Senate Banking Committee has noticed a hearing for this Thursday, where it will, at long last, consider the Senate’s version of a market structure bill governing cryptocurrency. After months of negotiations on a number of outstanding issues, Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) has indicated that he is unwilling to delay any further. Senators Tillis (R-NC) and Alsobrooks (D-MD) have reached a deal on the “yield” issue that is largely supported by crypto backers and largely panned by banks. Although the banking trades are continuing to float adjustments to the language, that section of the bill is considered to be closed. However, other issues have not yet been resolved, including the executive branch ethics issue and DeFi. The block of Banking Committee Democrats who have engaged in negotiations has not yet made a final decision on how they will vote, and are as of now continuing to negotiate. However, based on where things stand today, it is looking like it will be a likely partisan vote.

New Leadership at the Fed: This Friday, May 15th, marks the end of Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair, though he plans to remain on the Board of Governors through 2028.  The Senate will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as his successor this week.  Warsh’s nomination was approved by the Senate Banking Committee on April 29th with a party-line 13-11 vote that reflected the minority party’s concern about weakening independence at the Federal Reserve.

Financial Services Committee Marks Up Fraud, AI Bills: The House Financial Services Committee has a markup scheduled this Wednesday, May 13th, where it will consider a number of bills pertaining to artificial intelligence, technology, and fraud detection and prevention. 

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Alabama:  With the May 19th Alabama primary fast approaching, we see new data again posting US Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) as leading the open Senate Republican primary but headed for a runoff. The second qualifying position is now up for grabs, according to the new Change Research poll conducted for Gray Television and the Alabama Daily News. 

The survey results (4/29-30; 500 AL likely Republican primary voters; online & text) find Rep. Moore posting a 36-25-25% edge over Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson when respondents leaning to a candidate are included in the ballot test result. The Alabama runoff elections are scheduled for June 16th. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Georgia:  The University of Georgia (for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper; 4/18-26; 1,000 GA likely Republican primary voters) was one of three pollsters to test the Republican US Senate primary. All three find US Rep Mike Collins (R-Jackson) leading the field, but with such percentages as to suggest that two of the three contenders will advance from the May 19th primary to a June 16th runoff election because no one will reach the majority plateau. 

The UGA results find Rep. Collins posting a 22-13-11% over US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/ Savannah) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, the son of the late legendary University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley.

The Cygnal polling firm (4/22-23; 600 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text) found Rep. Collins holding a larger lead, 30-12-11%, but with Mr. Dooley slightly pushing ahead of Rep. Carter. Insider Advantage (4/26-27; 800 GA likely voters; 322 likely Republican primary voters; online & text), however, detected a much closer contest with Rep. Collins leading Rep. Carter and Mr. Dooley, 27-24-16 percent.

Kentucky:  Major happenings occurred in the open Republican Kentucky primary, with US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) now putting a firm grip on first place.  Rep. Barr received President Trump’s endorsement and that of the Senate leadership, while businessman Nate Morris, who has spent well over $5 million of his own money on his campaign, dropped out of the race to accept an appointment within the Trump Administration. 

This leaves Rep. Barr competing against an underfunded opponent in former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron. Rep. Barr is well-positioned to succeed retiring Senator Mitch McConnell (R). 

A new Public Opinion Strategies survey conducted for the Keep America Great Super PAC (5/3-5; 600 KY likely Republican primary voters; live interview) posted Rep. Barr to a 43-24-9% lead over Messrs. Cameron and Morris, thus confirming that the Congressman is headed toward winning the Republican nomination on May 19th.

Louisiana:  Polling results continue to bounce around in the Republican Senate race, where incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is in serious danger of losing renomination. The latest BDPC Louisiana statewide poll (4/28-30; 600 LA likely Republican primary voters) sees US Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) leading State Treasurer and former US Congressman John Fleming and Sen. Cassidy by a 33-21-21% margin. 

It is clear that a June 27th runoff election will be necessary here because no candidate is close to majority support, but all three contenders have a chance to qualify for the secondary vote. 

Looking at Sen. Cassidy’s standing if he were to qualify for the runoff, BDPC finds him losing to both Rep. Start and Treasurer Fleming. In a Letlow-Cassidy runoff, the Senator trails by a wide margin, 51-28%. If Mr. Fleming and Sen. Cassidy square off, the Treasurer leads the incumbent 47-30%. President Trump, largely because Sen. Cassidy voted for the second Trump impeachment back in 2021, has endorsed Rep. Letlow.

Texas:  A new Slingshot Strategies poll (for Texas Public Opinion Research; 4/17-20; 1,018 TX likely general election voters; online) finds state Rep James Talarico (D-Austin) topping Sen. John Cornyn 44-41% in a general election poll.  If Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the hard-fought runoff election with Sen. Cornyn on May 26th, Rep. Talarico would lead 46-41%.

The University of Houston’s School of Public Affairs conducted a survey of the upcoming Texas Republican US Senate runoff (4/28-5/1; 1,200 TX likely Republican primary voters; text & online) and sees AG Paxton posting a slight lead over Sen. Cornyn. The UOH numbers find the Paxton edge at three points, 48-45%. 

On the other hand, Peek Insights, polling for Texans for a Conservative Majority (5/2-5; 800 TX likely Republican runoff voters) sees Sen. Cornyn posting a one-point, 47-46% edge. Considering these cumulative polling results, either candidate could win the runoff. The race comes down to voter turnout.

HOUSE

CO-8:  Normington, Petts & Associates (4/20-22; 400 CO-8 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview), polling for the Shannon Bird (D) campaign, finds two state Representatives at the top of a large Democratic primary field. The results produce a virtual tie between state Rep. Bird and state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City), with venture capitalist Evan Munsing trailing in a 25-24-6% spread. The winner of the June 30th Democratic primary will then challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) in what will be a hotly contested general election.

Indiana Primaries:  The regular Indiana statewide primary was held during the week, and while no congressional incumbent was denied renomination, the results were significant. Possibly as a side effect of the Indiana redistricting issue, where Republican base voters rebelled against individual state Senators who successfully blocked the congressional redistricting bill earlier in the year, it is arguable that all Hoosier State Republican congressional incumbents who drew opposition underperformed even when winning renomination.

Freshman Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R-Indianapolis), despite having literally a 100:1 advantage in campaign resources ($2.3 million to $22,000) over his opponent, was renominated with just 53% of the vote in the 6th District GOP primary.

Three-term US Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) won with a 60-40% margin against a 5th District Republican opponent who literally spent no money on the campaign. Similarly, 3rd District incumbent Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe/Ft. Wayne) recorded a 67% victory percentage against an opponent who had less than $100,000 in resources. 

An incumbent who faced a legitimate challenger was 4th District US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle). He defeated his opponent, state Rep. Craig Haggard (R-Mooresville), by a 61-30% margin. This was not an expensive primary, and Rep. Baird, at 80 years of age, had been laid up from injuries suffered in an auto accident. Therefore, his 61% victory figure is acceptable. 

The only Democratic incumbent who faced a challenge was US Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis) in the 7th CD. Against three opponents, he won renomination with 62 percent.

Irrespective of all challenged Indiana US House members recording below average victory percentages for incumbents seeking renomination, the entire nine-member delegation should easily win their respective general election campaigns in November.

GA-13:  Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has scheduled the special jungle primary election to replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) for July 28th. Should no candidate receive majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to an Aug 25th secondary election. A Democratic candidate will eventually hold the seat.

Ohio Primaries:  Like in Indiana, the regular primary election was also held this week in Ohio. No surprises occurred in the US House races. Two races of note will be featured as national campaigns in the general election, those from Cincinnati and Toledo.

In the 1st District, former CIA case officer Eric Conroy easily won the Republican nomination and now will challenge two-term US Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) in a district that the Ohio redraw transformed from a lean Democratic seat to one that tilts Republican.

In the 9th CD, where then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) came within less than a percentage point of upsetting veteran US Rep. Marcy Kaptur in 2024, we will see a rematch. Mr. Merrin defeated a crowded Republican field in order to earn a second chance at wresting the House seat away from Ms. Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982. Redistricting made the 9th District even more Republican than it was in 2024, so this challenge race now becomes one of the best GOP conversion opportunities in the nation.

GOVERNOR

California:  The open California Governor’s race continues to poll extremely close as the candidates move toward the June 2nd jungle primary election. A total of 60 names are on the ballot, with as many as six candidates routinely appearing in the polling top tier. 

Two more polls find different leaders and very different results, even though the studies were conducted during the same relative period. Gudelunas Strategies (4/23-27; 800 CA likely jungle primary voters) sees former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) posting a slight lead over former Fox News host Steve Hilton, 24-23%.  Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) is third with 15%, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) at 12%, and ex-Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) posting 10 percent.

Survey USA (for KGTV in San Diego; 4/28-5/1; 991 CA likely jungle primary voters), however, sees a very different overall ballot test result. They find Mr. Hilton in first place, leading Mr. Steyer, Sheriff Bianco, and Mr. Becerra, 20-18-12-10 percent.

Georgia:  Insider Advantage (4/26-27; 800 GA likely voters; 323 likely Democratic primary voters; 322 likely Republican primary voters; online & text) tested the open Republican Governor’s primary, and healthcare company executive Rick Jackson continues to lead the crowded field. The IA numbers find him posting a 28-24-18-11% over Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and Attorney General Chris Carr. 

The Cygnal polling firm was in the field (4/22-23; 600 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview and text) just before IA, and they found a similar result. In this poll, Mr. Jackson leads 27-24-12-6% over Lt. Gov. Jones, Secretary of State Raffensperger and Attorney General Carr. It is likely the May 19th primary will end in the top two finishers advancing to a June 16th runoff election. To win outright, a candidate must exceed the 50% threshold.

For the Democrats, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads former DeKalb County CEO Mike Thurmond 52-16% in the Cygnal poll, with all other candidates failing to reach double-digit support.

New York:  Siena University conducted another of their regular New York state polls (4/27-30; 806 likely NY general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) job approval rating dropping into negative numbers, but her ballot test results against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) simultaneously improving. 

According to Siena, Ms. Hochul’s approval index ratio dropped to 41:46 favorable to unfavorable, but her ballot test results gave her a 49-33% advantage over Mr. Blakeman.

Texas:  Slingshot Strategies (for Texas Public Opinion Research; 4/17-20; 1,018 TX likely general election voters; online) sees Gov. Greg Abbott, running for a fourth term, leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin) by a 48-43% count. Democrats are fighting to make both the Governor’s and US Senate campaigns competitive, even though the party candidates have not won a statewide race since 1994.