Busy weeks on both sides

Welcome back to the Golden Apple. The House and Senate are in session this week, with busy weeks on both sides. The House has an aggressive floor calendar, attempting to tackle FISA’s reauthorization, the Farm Bill, and the CBP/ICE budget resolution. FISA has failed twice on the floor after hardline GOP members objected, but has been newly renegotiated to pass under a rule. The Farm Bill was marked up in the Agriculture Committee on a partisan basis, so it will also need to go through Rules. Rounding out the week is the budget resolution laying the path for a reconciliation bill to fund ICE and the border patrol; the resolution passed the Senate last week and is part of a strategy to separate out funding for the two agencies from the broader DHS appropriations bill. 

Warsh to Receive Committee Vote: On Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold an executive session to vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This development comes as Senator Thom Tillis dropped his hold on the nomination in response to the Justice Department dropping their investigation into Chair Powell. The investigation, which was looking into cost overruns for renovations at the Fed, was characterized by Tillis and others as politically motivated, with the intent of pressuring Powell into lowering interest rates. The investigation will instead be referred to the Fed’s Inspector General, which has already been reviewing the matter since last year, at the request of Chair Powell himself.

Financial Services Committee Discusses Basel III: In a hearing tomorrow, the full Financial Services Committee will review regulator proposals to revise capital requirements for certain banking organizations via the Basel III Capital Accord, change the risk weights that banking organizations apply to credit exposures, and alter the method for calculating the GSIB capital surcharge. The three proposals, released in March, impact securitization, risk transfer, mortgage requirements, credit card requirements, and more.

House to Vote on Budget Resolution: On Thursday, the Senate passed its narrow budget resolution by a 50-48 vote, setting the stage for a floor vote in the House this week. The resolution lays forth instructions for a $70 billion immigration enforcement strategy, but does not include additional items requested by some members of the Republican Conference. Republican leadership has opted to keep the bill narrow with the goal of expediting passage; this has prompted discussions of a third, broader reconciliation package.

Clarity Markup Looks toward May: Confirming what appeared to be all but inevitable last week, the Senate’s cryptocurrency market structure bill will not be marked up in April. Although yield negotiations are coming to a close, several outstanding issues remain, including DeFi AML, the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act, and tokenization. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott is now tentatively eyeing May 11th as the new markup date. 

Weekly Political Synopsis from Jim Ellis

SENATE

Alabama:  We see a major polling disparity in the open Alabama Republican US Senate primary. Peak Insights released their internal campaign poll for US Rep. Barry Moore’s campaign (4/11-13; 500 AL likely voters; live interview), which posts the Congressman to a healthy 34-16-12% margin over Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson. The Tarrance Group (4/11-14; 500 AL likely voters; live interview), however, finds a much different and closer 28-27-24% split among the three candidates. 

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19th. It is probable that two of the candidates, likely Rep. Moore and AG Marshall, will advance to a June 16th runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee will be a prohibitive favorite to win the seat in the general election. Incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is running in the open Governor’s race.

Mississippi:  Impact Research (for the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund; 4/8-12; 500 MS likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds a surprisingly close Mississippi US Senate race between incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), who is running for a second full term, and Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom, who won the Democratic nomination in the state’s March primary. The ballot test yields the Senator only a 42-39% edge. The result is unexpected and will certainly draw more attention to this developing campaign.

Ohio:  Bowling Green State University released the results of their YouGov US Senate statewide survey (4/7-14; 1,000 OH registered voters; online), and the results find appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) leading ex-US Senator Sherrod Brown (D) by a 50-47% clip. So far, polls have been back and forth between the two contenders. 

This will be an expensive race, but Sen. Husted is favored because the Ohio voting trends are turning reliably Republican.  In 2024, then-Sen. Brown lost his re-election race to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by a 51-45% count. This, even though Mr. Brown received 230,000 more votes in 2024 than in his last victory campaign in 2018, yet still lost by six percentage points. Expect close polls until the race crystallizes in late October.

HOUSE

AZ-1:  President Trump has endorsed former NFL place kicker and media football analyst Jay Feeley to replace US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills), who is running for Governor, but the voters may have another idea. 

According to a NextGen Polling survey (4/13-16; 409 AZ-1 likely Republican primary voters; text-to-web), state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R-Scottsdale) holds a 24-15-6% lead over Mr. Feeley and technology company executive John Trobough on the ballot test. The Arizona primary is scheduled for July 21st. The open AZ-1 race will be highly competitive in the general election.

CA-48:  Survey USA released a new survey of California’s 48th District anchored in San Diego County. This is one of the Republican seats that Democrats changed in their redistricting plan.  Incumbent GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is not seeking re-election. In his place, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) changed from challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) in District 49 to the open 48th, which is more Republican and contains more of Mr. Desmond’s current district. 

Though the projections suggested that this seat would flip to the Democrats, the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean rating is only 50.6D – 48.7R.

The S-USA survey suggests that this seat may be more difficult to flip than first thought. The poll (4/14-19; 500 CA-48 likely jungle primary voters; live interview & text) finds Mr. Desmond in first place with 25% preference, followed by another Republican, businessman Kevin O’Neill, at 13%. 

The top Democrat, frequent candidate Ammar Campo-Najjar, posts 12% support. Adding all of the Republican candidates and the Democrats’ cumulative support figures find 38% voting for a Republican and 37% supporting a Democratic candidate. Therefore, this poll’s conclusion is that the 48th District is a pure toss-up and a race to be watched nationally.

MD-6:  Hart Research (for the Delaney campaign; (4/11-14; 564 MD-6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) released their latest survey for the 6th District Democratic primary race in western Maryland between freshman US Rep. April McLain Delaney (D-Potomac) and former US Rep. David Trone, who is attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 US Senate Democratic primary. 

According to the Hart poll results, Rep. Delaney holds a 49-38% primary lead, which is virtually identical to the previous month’s survey result of 49-37%. This, despite Mr. Trone spending $10 million on his current campaign. The Maryland plurality primary is scheduled for June 23rd.

NY-13:  In a bit of a surprising poll result, US Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-New York City) could have a more competitive primary than most would expect.  According to a poll from his opponent’s campaign, anti-Israel activist Darializa Avila Chevalier, Upswing Research (3/25-30; 598 NY-13 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), finds Rep. Espaillat leading by only a 42-28% margin. 

It is surprising to see the Congressman falling below 50% in his own Democratic Party, an entity that dominates the NY-13 political universe. It will be interesting to see if this race further develops before the June 23rd New York primary.

OH-1:  Last week, President Trump endorsed former CIA officer Eric Conroy for the Republican nomination in the battle to challenge US Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati). This week, Mr. Conroy’s principal opponent, dentist Steven Erbeck, dropped his bid. This leaves only two minor candidates remaining in the primary, with Conroy for the May 5th Ohio primary election. 

Under the new redistricting plan, the 1st District becomes more Republican (The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation shows a 51.6R – 47.5D split for the new OH-1). Therefore, expect this general election race to become a major national Republican conversion target.

SD-AL:  Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (for South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota; 4/7-11; 500 SD registered Republican voters; live interview) released their poll of the open South Dakota at-large congressional campaign. 

Attorney General Marty Jackley (R) is staked to a commanding 68-12% Republican primary margin over Air Force veteran James Bialota. Mr. Jackley, who has been elected Attorney General three times, is a prohibitive favorite to win the seat in November. Incumbent US Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is running for Governor.

Virginia Redistricting:  The redistricting referendum vote was completed on April 21st, and while the victory margin was less than expected, the Yes position, meaning the vote to redraw the districts, carried with a 51.5 – 48.5% margin. The state Supreme Court is still considering an appeal of the entire process, but the fact that the justices allowed the referendum vote to proceed makes it highly unlikely that they will overturn a vote of the people. The result means that the 6D-5R congressional map will transform to 10D-1R, thus leading to a four seat Democratic gain.

GOVERNOR

Arizona:  NextGen Polling also tested the Arizona statewide Republican gubernatorial primary (4/13-16; 1,255 AZ likely Republican primary voters; text to web). The results find US Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) posting a huge 52-10% margin over US Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills), with others not even reaching 3% support. The winner of the July 21st Republican primary will then challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) in what promises to be a competitive campaign.

California:  The California open jungle gubernatorial field is now down to 60 candidates as former state Controller Betty Yee (D) has followed US Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) in ending her effort. 

The Democratic establishment may now be leaning toward former US Health and Human Services, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term US Representative Xavier Becerra, even though billionaire Tom Steyer (D) has spent in the range of $100 million of his own money in advertising. The top two finalists from the field of 60 will advance to the general election. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Georgia:  Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads the open Democratic gubernatorial primary according to a small-sample poll from Concord Public Opinion Partners (for Education Reform Now Advocacy; 3/31-4/10; 437 GA likely Democratic primary voters; text-to-web). The results find Ms. Lance Bottoms recording a substantial 42-12-8-6% advantage over former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond, ex-Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan and former state Senator Jason Esteves. 

If no candidate receives majority support in the May 19th Georgia primary, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16th runoff election. Republicans also have a crowded open campaign for their party's nomination. The eventual two nominees will battle to replace term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

Ohio:  The Bowling Green State University/YouGov (4/7-14; 1,000 OH registered voters; online) also tested the open Governor’s general election.  Here, they find a virtual tie with businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton (D). The ballot test finds Mr. Ramaswamy holding a slight 48-47% edge.  Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Rhode Island:  Independent software designer and gubernatorial candidate Ken Block released his Opinion Diagnostics poll (4/13-16; 802 RI likely general election voters) that finds Gov. Dan McKee (D) posting a 28-20-15% over Mr. Block and Republican trade association executive and 2022 Lt. Governor nominee Aaron Guckian in a hypothetical and unlikely general election match-up. 

Former CVS pharmacies CEO Helena Foulkes (D) would lead Block and Guckian by a stronger 33-18-16% spread if she becomes the Democratic nominee. 

The latest Democratic primary poll from Expedition Strategies for the Rhode Island League of Charter Schools Advocacy Fund (3/24-29; 800 RI likely general election voters; 680 RI eligible Democratic primary voters) finds Ms. Foulkes leading Governor McKee and businessman Greg Stevens, 34-20-8%.  Surprisingly, this is Gov. McKee’s best showing in a Democratic primary poll. The Rhode Island primary, scheduled for September 9th, is the latest in the country.

South Dakota:  The aforementioned Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll (See SD-AL in the House section above) finds US Rep. Dusty Johnson leading his Republican primary opponents by a substantial 34-18-17-17% division. 

In second place is state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids), with businessman Toby Doeden and, surprisingly, Gov. Larry Rhoden locked in a tie for third position. Mr. Rhoden, as Lt. Governor, assumed the Governorship when then-Gov. Kristi Noem resigned to accept her cabinet position in the Trump Administration.

Wyoming:  Gov. Mark Gordon (R) announced that he will not challenge Wyoming’s term limit law and therefore is not seeking re-election this year. The state has a term limit law, but legal experts say the provisions are flawed and the term limit restriction would likely be successfully challenged in court. Other candidates have overthrown the term limit law in campaigning for other offices.

Gov. Gordon, however, will not challenge the law and retire. He left the door open, however, for potentially entering the open US Senate or at-large House race. It is unlikely that he would run for Senate because at-large US Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) appears to be the prohibitive favorite to win both the Republican primary and the general election. 

The open House race, however, is a free-for-all for the party nomination, as will be the open Governor’s campaign. The Wyoming candidate filing deadline is May 29th for the August 18th state primary election.